Kyoto Protocol and Global Carbon Market

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1 Kyoto Protocol and Global Carbon Market Carbon Finance Assist World Bank December 2006

2 Climate Change The Earth s climate is warming and human activities are primarily responsible Global projections (100 years): Warming of 1.4 to 5.8 C C with no emission controls Mid-range even with changes is 2.5 to 3 C 3

3 Global Warming Potential Carbon Dioxide Methane (CO 2 ) 01 (CH 4 ) 21 Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) 310 Perflurocarbons Hydroflurocarbons Sulfur Fluoride (PFC) 6500 (HFC) (SF 6 ) 23900

4 GHG Emissions GHG Emissions Emissions of Large Countries (m tco2) Per Capita Emissions (tco2) S. Africa Germany Japan Russia USA EC Brazil China India Mexico S. Africa Canada Germany Japan Russia USA EC Brazil China India Mexico Canada

5 Potential Impacts

6 UNFCCC Ultimate objective of stabilizing global greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere Developed countries (Annex I countries) aim to restore GHG emissions to 1990 levels Support capacity building in, and facilitate technology transfer to developing countries to mitigate, and to adapt to climate change Meet as a Conference of Parties annually, to monitor progress

7 Kyoto Protocol 38 Developed Countries and Economies in Transition (Annex B countries) agreed in 1997 to reduce GHG emissions by 5.2% below 1990 levels in the commitment period Total demand created for GHG Reductions: ~ Mt CO2,, including US Marrakech Accord: agreed in Nov 2001 sets rules of implementation KP came into force in 2005 February with Russia signing the Protocol

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9 Meeting Commitments Domestic Reductions Carbon Sinks: Direct human-induced land use change and forestry activities (limited to ~330 Mt C0 2e ) International Credits (Kyoto Mechanisms): International Emissions Trading Project Based: Joint Implementation Project Based: Clean Development Mechanism

10 Clean Development Mechanism CDM, Art. 12 KP: Defined: credit for emission reduction (CERs) from investments in developing (non-annex I) countries Objectives: To promote sustainable development in developing countries To assist Annex B countries in meeting their emission reduction targets in cost-effective manner Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) must: Create real, measurable, and long-term benefits related to the mitigation of climate change. (Art. 12.5b) Be additional to any that would occur in the absence of the certified project activity. (Art. 12.5c) Emission Reductions must: be verified by designated operational entity (DOE)

11 Key Market Drivers For Buyers (Annex I countries) Compliance targets Sustainable development For Sellers (Non-Annex I Countries) Contribute to sustainable development Facilitate technology transfer Improve financial returns

12 Structure of the Market 2006 Project-Based Transactions Credible C-asset Allowance Markets Primary JI & CDM 226 MtCO 2 e Secondary JI & CDM EU Emission Trading Scheme 764 MtCO 2 e Voluntary & Retail Other Compliance 8 MtCO 2 e 8 MtCO 2 e New South Wales Certificates 16 MtCO 2 e Chicago Climate Exchange 8 MtCO 2 e UK ETS 2 MtCO 2 e

13 Market Value Doubles Carbon is mainly a financial trading market Nearly US$22 billion (2006 ytd) > US$11 billion (2005), mainly from standardized European Union Allowance (EUA) trading Trade goes well beyond physical trade of EUAs. Market value arises from trading: sale, re-sale for hedging, arbitrage + compliance EUA price signal (from EU compliance caps, interplay with European energy markets, regional weather) influences price expectations for project-based assets worldwide. Growth of project-based market stabilizes Transactions in 2006 likely to equal 2005 volumes Growth rate of new CDM pipeline slows as 2012 looms Average contract prices up across all market segments in 2006 Biggest Primary CER Sellers: China and India Biggest Buyers: EU private sector, for compliance and resale Project performance ( yield ) emerges as concern

14 Status of CDM (November 06) Registered Projects: 427 (Large 221; Small 206) Total CERs: : 680m Average annual CERs: : m Requesting registration: 50 Total CERs: : 20m Average annual CERs: : 4.2m Total CERs issued: 22.42m

15 CDM Market: Sellers Honduras 2.34% Ecuador 1.87% Malaysia 2.81% Chile 3.28% China 7.73% Others 19.20% Mexico 14.75% India 29.27% Brazil 18.74% Nigeria 1% Malaysia 2% Argentina 2% Chile 2% Mexico 4% Korea 10% Egypt 1% India 11% Pakistan 1% Others 6% Brazil 14% China 46% By Number (427) By Annual Volume (104mt)

16 CDM Market: Sectors Chemical 0.68% Waste 25.52% Forestry 0.17% Manufacturing 4.79% Agriculture 12.33% Energy (R/NR) 47.09% Fugitive Emissions HFC/SF6 7.71% 1.72%

17 CDM Market: Buyers Spain, 4.2% Finland, 3.0% Canada, 3.6% France, 2.1% Other, 3.9% UK, 29.1% Sweden, 4.2% Italy, 4.2% Switzerland, 7.9% Japan, 9.4% Netherlands, 28.2%

18 Key Challenges Slow demand and slower response in the first commitment period (just around 20% of the target so far) Maintaining the integrity of KP on sustainable development Expanding the market beyond the Big Five Need for capacity building Issues for a post-2012 regime Making up for shortfalls Continuation of mechanisms Commitments for non-annex I countries? LULUCF, CCS, pcdm Role of US and Australia (RGGI, California, NETS)