Addressing cost uncertainties when planning and implementing a monitoring programme for a Carbon Storage site

Transcription

1 IEA GHG Combined Monitoring Modelling Meeting Addressing cost uncertainties when planning and implementing a monitoring programme for a Carbon Storage site Claudia Vivalda - claudia.vivalda@nidiatec.com Morgantown, August

2 Contents - Approach to perform a probabilistic cost analysis - Reference base case monitoring plan and CAPEX and OPEX costs per lifecycle phase - Preparation of the cost model based on the input data - Selection of relevant uncertain cost items (eternal and internal) - Short introduction to Monte Carlo simulation input and assumptions - Description of scenarios for analysis - Sample case: comparison between deterministic cost calculation versus probabilistic and related benefit/drawback

3 Problem statement - Performing cost analysis when planning and/or implementing a monitoring programme for a carbon storage site - Developing a cost model of a system in its feasibility stage with technologies to be implemented not fully developed or customized - Finding reliable cost estimations to support the decision making process at a certain level of confidence - Addressing estimations uncertainties - Contributing to cost-effective decisions for programme implementation

4 Objective Defining an approach based on probabilistic cost estimates, providing a sound ground for: - comparing alternative monitoring solutions to support the decision about the preferred architecture and the most cost efficient technologies - evaluating the costs and perform sensitivities analysis, when the monitoring architecture is fied for the selection and then purchase of the monitoring technologies Discussing the advantages and limitations of using probabilistic calculations for decision making and the epected benefits to the monitoring programme designers, implementers and site operators

5 Approach A) Development of a cost model for the subject site and relevant alternative options B) Propagation of probabilistically distributed values for uncertain relevant costs through the cost model using MC simulations to obtain probabilistically distributed outcomes C) Evaluation of statistical parameters such as mean, median, confidence intervals to provide more realistic and reliable information about the final estimates D) Analysis of results to inform decisions E) Integration of monitoring cost analysis in the overall CCS site cost estimation F) Balance of estimated costs with other relevant parameters such as safety, performance, maintenance, etc. to support an informed decision making process at CCS site level

6 Monitoring purposes DNV Guidelines Ref. DNV Guidelines Develop MVAR (Monitoring, Verification, Accounting and Reporting) plan Select monitoring techniques to meet requirements described in IH Define monitoring program for base case scenario cost and a contingency monitoring program cost triggered by early warning signals Obtain cost estimates from monitoring service providers Construct cost vs. time model for monitoring activities Analyze costs and risk reduction benefit of both programs, and model CAPEX and OPEX for baseline and monitor surveys respectively Prepare report on relative costs and benefits of both programs. Make appropriate recommendation. Describe verification activities for performance targets Review local, national and international accounting and reporting requirements for CO2 storage. Design an accounting program cost that meets these requirements. MVAR plan List of monitoring techniques to be used Description of alternative monitoring programs Price information for alternative monitoring programs Cost vs. time model for monitoring over project life cycle CAPEX and OPEX estimates for alternative monitoring programs Cost-benefit analysis for alternative monitoring programs Risk based verification plan for performance targets Reporting and accounting plan for the mass/volume of avoided CO2 emissions

7 Function Operational Monitoring Monitoring purpose and techniques grouping Verification Monitoring Assurance Monitoring Conformance Monitoring Containment Monitoring Categories Injection Operation Control Wellhead pressure Bottom hole Pressure and T Injection rate Micro-seismicity In-Well Geochemical Quantification of injected CO2 Well Integrity Mass flow Gas stream composition Annulus pressure Corrosion Cement Bond Soil gas measurements Geophysical Surface Caprock/Fault Integrity Micro-seismicity Pressure interference CO2 Displacement and Fate Geophysics techniques (seismic, EM, gravimetry) Pressure, Temperature Well logs (CO2 Saturation) Sampling Impact Detection of Leaks Potable water quality Soils acidity Atmospheric concentration Surface deformation Sampling and chemical analysis Pressure interference Soil gas measurements Eddy correlation tower Geophysics techniques Quantification of leak Soil gas Measurement Atmospheric towers

8 Monitoring Categories and Technologies Adapted from Quest CCS Project MMV Plan, Doc. N AA , 2011 Categories Technologies In-Well Monitoring Cement bond logs Time-lapse ultrasonic casing imaging Time-lapse EM casing imaging Time-lapse multi-finger calliper Annulus pressure monitoring Injection rate metering at wellhead Wellhead pressure-temperature gauge (monitoring) Down-hole pressure-temperature gauge (monitoring) Mechanical well integrity pressure testing Well-head CO2 detectors Tracer injection & gamma logging Time-lapse saturation logging Time-lapse temperature logging Time-lapse annular flow noise logging Time-lapse density logging Time-lapse sonic logging Fibre-optic distributed temperature sensing Fibre-optic distributed pressure sensing Real time casing imager Fibre-optic distributed acoustic sensing Pressure interference testing Pressure fall-off test Geochemical Monitoring Water chemistry monitoring Geophysical Monitoring Down-hole electrical - table with main monitoring technologies conductivity seismic - monitoring programme monitoring principles Down-hole ph monitoring Artificial tracer monitoring Natural isotope tracer monitoring U-tube fluid sampling Isotube fluid sampling Ground water gas analysis Soil CO2 gas flu surveys Soil CO2 gas concentration surveys Soil ph surveys Soil salinity surveys Time-lapse 3D vertical seismic profiling Time-lapse surface 3D Surface Monitoring DIAL - Differential absorption LIDAR Line-of-sight gas flu monitoring Atmospheric eddy correlation Airborne infra-red laser gas analysis Hand-held infra-red gas analysers Satellite or airborne multi-spectral image analysis Ecosystem studies Time-lapse surface 2D seismic Surface microseismic monitoring Down-hole microseismic monitoring Time-lapse surface microgravity Time-lapse down-hole microgravity Time-lapse surface controlled source EM Time-lapse cross-well controlled source EM Time-lapse cross-well seismic Magnetotelluric - natural source EM InSAR - Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar GPS - Global Positioning System Surface tilt-meters Down-hole tilt-meters

9 Cost Model for Monitoring Programme Cost model built upon the reference monitoring plan designed for the specific carbon storage site and its purposes Eample on a spreadsheet - Selected monitoring techniques grouped into categories representing main purposes and listed for cost calculation - Monitoring plan based on the selected techniques designed along site life cycle (from pre-injection to post-closure) Time model - Estimated technologies costs identified (CAPEX) - Operational cost evaluated according to the time model of the monitoring plan (OPEX) TOTAL Nidia Scientific MONITORING Services PROGAMME IEA GHG Monitoring COST Modelling = Meeting, CAPEX+OPEX Morgantown, August

10 Time Cost Model for Monitoring Programme Eample Adapted from Quest CCS Project MMV Plan, Doc. N AA , 2011 The model can be used for deterministic and probabilistic cost analysis

11 Selection of Relevant Costs Categories for Probabilistic Analysis Focus on INTERNAL and EXTERNAL costs associated to the monitoring system INTERNAL: - Monitoring programme update, e.g. longer injection phase, longer closure phase,... - Technologies uncertainties on costs - R&D Uncertainties on performance (first of the kind) => e.g. loss of information, loss of operation costs - Loss of information - Loss of: Operational Monitoring Verification Monitoring Assurance Monitoring or Conformance Monitoring Containment Monitoring

12 Selection of Relevant Costs Categories EXTERNAL: - Regulatory requirements e.g. technologies, update programme,... - Social cost of CO2 - Social concern, e.g. etend closure/post-closure phase,...

13 Cost Categories (Internal/Eternal) Regulatory Requirements Social Concern Technologies Uncertainties Monitoring Programme Uncertain Costs Categories Plan Update Eample Technologies review and update (performance, quality,...) Plan Update, e.g. etend closure phase Social Cost CO2 - CAPEX monitoring around 3-8% total CO2 sequestration project CO2 Injection Rate IR [t/yrs] Injection Phase Duration [yrs] Cost of vented CO2 Longer/shorter injection phase - Cost of technologies uncertainties Longer/shorter on costsclosure phase - Costs of R&D Uncertain Uncertainties market/provider price on performance (first of the kind) => e.g. loss Uncertainty of information, on cost loss Review of operation Programme/Plancosts - Cost of data processing Uncertainty on performance - Cost of information (in case of loss) Monitoring Interruption - Cost of remediation Review selected measures technology and Plan update Closure Phase Duration [yrs] Monitoring Technologies R&D uncertainties Loss of information costs Cost of remediation measures (in case of low reliability) quality Loss of conformance Update models,... Change Provider Add Technology Uncertain market price Loss of containment Delay in site closure Plan Update (e.g. additional monitoring well) Costs for monitoring plan update following an undesired event

14 Comments on additional costs Simple cost calculation approach: add contingencies In-deep approach: scenario analysis and cost uncertainty analysis leading to informed decision A sample case implementing this approach using Monte Carlo simulations presented

15 Sample case - Cost model based on real monitoring programme and published cost data - Selection of uncertain parameters: - INTERNAL - EXTERNAL - Use of Monte Carlo simulation to propagate cost uncertainties

16 Scenario SC12 - Uncertain Parameters EXTERNAL INTERNAL SC1 - CO2 Injection Rate reduced [%] SC2 - Higher/Lower CO2 Price SC3 - Injection phase longer/shorter 25 yrs SC4 - Closure phase longer/shorter SC5 - Additional Regulatory Requirements SC6 - Technology Uncertainties SC7 - R&D Uncertainties SC8 - Loss of Information - Injection SC8.1 - Loss of Information - Closure SC9 - Remediation Measures SC10 - Loss of Conformance SC11 - Loss of Containment

17 Ways Forward A) Compiling scenarios analysis to identify main trends and sensible portions B) Optimizing monitoring plan and related technologies by balancing the relevant parameters C) Combining monitoring cost analysis to the overall CCS site cost analysis and update plan if necessary D) Providing best estimation and foreseeing updates during the project lifetime