Trends and developments in the society and their impacts on plant nutrient and fertilizer needs during next decades

Transcription

1 Trends and developments in the society and their impacts on plant nutrient and fertilizer needs during next decades Oene Oenema, Theun Vellinga & colleagues Wageningen University & Research IFA meeting, Rome,

2 Outline of this presentation Introduction Developments in food demand Constraints in the agrifood system Future production trends & fertilizer needs The role in future fertilizer use Uncertainties in trends and developments 2

3 Developments in food demand 3

4 Estimates of future food energy demand Alexandratos & Bruinsma (2012) 55 % Tilman et al (2011) % Bijl et al (2017) % % OECD (2016) % (cereals) 0 90 % (animal) 4

5 The future depends largely on what we want and do... Global demand of plant food Global demand of animal food Popp et al Global Environmental Change

6 Developments in food demand Food demand will increase Demand of animal based products increase stronger than plant based products Estimates of food demand in 2050 differ by a factor of about 2, due to political choices and uncertainties! 6

7 Constraints Social Technological Environmental Economic Policy

8 Required trend Extrapolation current trend

9 The Yield Gap Increased crop and animal yields necessary: Increasing potential yields by breeding Removing yield limiting factors Minimizing yield reducing factors Challenges: (Access to) Knowledge, management, inputs Climate change Soil degradation Fresh water availability

10 Management Industrialised and emerging countries: upscaling, mechanisation, specialization and intensification: Professional management, outsourcing tasks, professional suppliers, open for innovation Developing countries: growing number of smallholders Lack of knowledge Limited market access Low inputs While the knowledge infrastructure is more and more linked to input supply Public investments required

11 Soil quality as a long term investment Soil management: Complex Demanding in time and investments Effects (mismanagement and investments) only seen on the long term Cost price strategies often focused on labour productivity Poor quality can be masked by high fertilizer rates Soil quality is more than nutrient delivery Soil degradation: one third of the global soil area Costs USD 400 * 10 9 lost agricultural production Reduces NUE

12 Fresh water scarcity Agricultural the most water demanding sector kg water needed per kg dry matter Essential for a high NUE Increased demand for irrigation water Depletion of groundwater resources Adaptation to climate change: Water saving irrigation techniques Water saving crops Water recycling technologies Changing diets from animal to plant source

13 Climate Change Changes in temperature, rainfall patterns and amounts Extreme weather events: heat, drought, flooding Spatially diverse Uncertain in frequency Fertilizer use efficiency: Can increase as well as decrease Large temporal and regional variation Adaptation mechanisms required

14 Current nutrient losses from food systems are too high Losses of N and P exceed the limits for a safe operating space for humanity (Steffen et al., 2015 Science) Many lakes, rivers and coastal seas face serious eutrophication Caused by inefficient use of: Animal manures Fertilizers Sewage wastes Hence, need to increase efficiency 14

15 Constraints Limiting factors to meet the food and feed demand: Soil quality Fresh water Climate change Emission mitigation Scarcity of nutrients Policy, public investments, public-private cooperation

16 Nutrient requirements 16

17 Fertilizer N requirements Study Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012) Baseline year 2005/ 2007 Fertilizer use in baseline yr * 150 Tilman et al. (2011) FAO (2017) Fertilizer outlook UNEP (2013) Drawing down N2O ** Phosphate: 2050 without residual effect Tg, with residual effects Tg Potassium: larger increase expected than for N and P * N,P&K, ** Extrapolation Both overestimating 17

18 Global map of agronomic P imbalances for the year 2000 expressed per unit of cropland area in each 0.5 grid cell. MacDonald G K et al. PNAS 2011;108:

19 Manure P2O5 in manure is Tg: > current P2O5 fertilizer Large potential for better utilisation of N, P, K and organic matter from manures all over the world Livestock dense regions: legislation required to prevent discharge and over application Smallholder farming: knowledge transfer, investments required to improve storage and application Not only a farmers problem. 19

20 Sewage and household waste Global intake by consumers: Nitrogen: 30 Tg Phosphate: 14 Tg > 95 % is excreted again Final destination: Ground and surface waters Sewage sludge deposits/ ashes LOSS! Rethinking needed of recovery and recycling techniques in household wastes 20

21 Increased demand and planetary boundaries require large improvement in NUE and PUE Nitrogen Use Efficiency 45 % 67 % Phosphate Use Efficiency 50 % 90 % Zhang et al. (2015) Sattari et al. (2012) 21

22 Actions for improved NUE and PUE Crop production High yielding varieties Precision fertilization Integrated management Soil and water Nutrients Weed, pests, diseases Animal production High yielding breeds Precision feeding Animal housing and grazing Integrated manure management Emission mitigation Emission mitigation 22

23 Next to 4R, solutions at system level required: 5R stewardship 23

24 Nutrient requirements Increment: N: up to 150/200 Mton P: up to 75 Mton K: stronger than N,P Great potential of: Manure, sewage R&D, extension Strong increase in NUE and PUE required Technology and system improvement 24

25 What to do? 25

26 Nutrient management relevant to SDG s Thanks to Khan Shahidul Huque, Bangladesh 26

27 Concerted action required Take a proactive role in the debate on future pathways in nutrient management Cooperate with food industry, feed industry, farmers organisations, government and scientists Similar to e.g. the Livestock Environmental Assessment Partnership (LEAP): Industry/Governments/NGO s /Research Development of level playing field in Assessments Coordinated by FAO 27

28 What to do? Concerted action of governments, industry, farmers, NGO s Proactive role of fertilizer industry? 28

29 Thank you for your attention Agile Team CirculaResource Wageningen UR Oene Oenema Theun Vellinga Pieter de Wolf Koos Verloop Wyno Zwanenburg Piet Derikx Krijn Poppe Jan Weijma 29