Modelling The Effect of Changing Weather Patterns on Farming Operations Databases and Logic

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1 Modelling The Effect of Changing Weather Patterns on Farming Operations Databases and Logic Dan MacDonald, Ruth Waldick, Sampsa Hamalainen AAFC, Ottawa, Scott Mitchell, Anna Zaytseva Carleton University Ottawa, Ontario, Tonia Tanner Carleton University June 28, 2017

Crop specific = Corn, Soy, alfalfa Spatially explicit = varied weather across the

2 The Question How do we look critically at what a change in weather patterns does to farms in an Agricultural Region? Crop specific = Corn, Soy, alfalfa Spatially explicit = varied weather across the region Operationally sensitive = individual farms, varied seeding dates, impacted by weather. First day of the growing season!!

3 Simulation model for Eastern Ontario

4 Study Area

5 Agricultural Systems in Eastern Ontario Agricultural operations are primarily dairy, field or cash crop, beef with some pig and poultry production. The principal crops are corn, soy, cereals and perennial hay.

6 Envision Eastern Ontario Model 2844 farms of 22 farm types Based on census of agriculture statistics Spatially distributed on the landscape Average farm size, not their real locations Weather and farming operations follow a daily time step. Maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. Crop development Phenotypical growth curves.

7 Envision Eastern Ontario Model Two data classes, Field and farm Fields = Integrated Decision Units (IDU) AAFC Crop cover (2011) Grouped in legal survey (cadastre) polygons Farms = Collection of cadastre polygons

9 Separating classes Total Field Crop (FC) Farms 725 FC farms reporting Dairy Cows FC farms reporting Hogs (Sows + Weiner + Grower) Field Crop Dairy Farms 7 7 Field Crop Hog Total Hog Farms 8 Hog farms reporting field crops Hog farms without field crop 2 2 Hog Farms with Field Crops 6 6 Hog only farms

10 CCS - Farm Types Consolidated Census Subdivision CCSD CCS 25 Beef 12 Dairy Herds Herds Ag Census SLC Regions Derived from Soil Landscapes of Canada IDU - Integrated Decision Unit

11 Individual Farm

12 Ottawa

13 Farm Operations

Weather Data 1961 2010 Observed 2011 2041 -

14 Weather Data Observed Predicted Daily time step Tmin and Tmax Daily ppt

15 April Week 5 Business as Usual Dairy and Field Crop Cool and Wet Cool and Dry Week 6 delay cereals go in Week 7 April 17 delay Week 8 delay switch corn 1. Corn starts May 1 2. May Week 9 alfalfa seeded delay until under seeded conditions delay to an annual improve forage crop (cereal). Week 10 delay corn starts Week 11 soy - may 10 delay Week 12 delay soy delay Week 13 If corn not seeded May 24 cornacres switch to soy Warm and Wet same as cold and wet for all situations Warm and Dry same as normal year.

16 Crop Rotations Generalized crop rotations Corn Soy Cereal Corn Soy Corn Soy Cereal Field Crop Only farms Field crop and confined livestock (poultry and hog) Corn Soy Cereal Alfalfa Alfalfa Alfalfa Corn Soy Corn - Soy Cereal Alfalfa Alfalfa Alfalfa Field Crop farms with livestock (dairy or beef)

17 Initiate April 1 Choose Farm Calculate cereal start date for each SLC Get farm type Includes Annual Field Crops Yes No no Calculate start date Get planting sequence First crop in sequence Yes Includes cereals Start seeding Start GDD Count Calc dev stages Maturity Start Harvest Calculate conditions yes End Growth Calculate conditions no Daily till all fields seeded Delay 1 day Start threshold stage End threshold stage Calc yield reduction Calc climate index No Yes Alternate Crop 1, 2, 3, fallow yes no Start harvest Delay 1 day Progress till finished Reduce yield

18 Initiate April 1 year one Assign rotations based on farm types yes Calculate Cereal start date for each Ecodistrict Temperature conditions met? April 17 no Delay 1 day Start Farming operations

19 Choose Farm Get farm type Includes Annual Field Crops No Future Livestock model Yes Get planting sequence Yes Includes Cereals No Calculate start date of next crop in sequence Plant cereals

20 Plant cereals Daily loop Seeding condition suitable? No Choose next crop in sequence. Yes Add 1 day No Delay 1 day Past Seed Deadline? Yes Start Seeding Calculate yield reduction Progress till finished crop Restart for next crop

21 Calculate development stages (CHU or GDD) Add 1 day Start Crop Development Threshold Stage Reached? Maturity Reached? No Yes Add one day Yes Harvest Conditions Suitable Yes No Delay 1 day Add 1 day Climate index reached? Yes No Harvest Progress till finished Reduce Yields

22 Weather Impacts Seeding Date May 15 Increased yearly change in future More frequent larger delays May 2 30% increase in 7 day ppt over 30 year average = delay 1 day

23 Average Planting date - historic Kemptville Ottawa Russell May 1 Cornwall St Albert St. Anicet

24 Average Planting date - CCSM Kemptville Ottawa Russell May 10 Cornwall St Albert St. Anicet

25 Questions, comments? Dan MacDonald AAFC, Ottawa

The Eastern Ontario Farm Model

The Eastern Ontario Farm Model Modelling The Effect of Changing Weather Patterns on Farming Operations Dan MacDonald, Ruth Waldick, Sampsa Hamalainen AAFC, Ottawa, Scott Mitchell, Anna Zaytseva Carleton