February, STRYDE Uganda Employment Sector Analysis

Transcription

1 February, 2012 STRYDE Uganda Employment Sector Analysis

2 Executive Summary Uganda has the largest youth population in the world and the highest unemployment rate among youth With a annual population growth rate of 3% and a low percentage of elderly, Uganda continues to struggle with high youth unemployment rates o o o o o Agriculture continues to play the most important employment opportunity for Ugandan households Over 83% of the households in the STRYDE districts state that agriculture is it s main income generating activity Maize farming is the more important staple/cash crop opportunity for youth in the STRYDE districts With it s many uses and a growing local and regional demand, maize is increasingly important and gives youth opportunity to get involved not just in farming but many other areas along the value chain Livestock production, specifically pigs, can provide a great opportunity for youth/youth groups who lack access to farming land The Ugandan population consumes an average of 3.4 kg/person/year (FAO 2010), and pig consumption in Uganda is said to be experiencing the most rapid growth of any African country (CGAIR Research 2011) thus making pig farming a potentially highly lucrative avenue for youth Although there are many opportunities along the value chain, farming bears the greatest opportunity 74% of the opportunities in the STRYDE districts are in farming, making it extremely important that the STRYDE program change negative behavioral mindset in youth toward farming Stakeholders must assist youth along the value chain As youth need to gain skills to offer veterinary services or sell inputs, stakeholders such as the district veterinary services and UNADA must be willing to assist youth 1

3 Agenda Youth Employment in Uganda Key Employment Sectors for Youth in STRYDE districts Maize Sector Analysis Pig Sector Analysis Action plan and contacts Appendix 2

4 Uganda has the largest percentage of youth than any country in the world % of Youth 100% Large youth population implications 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 50.0% 49.7% 47.5% 46.7% 46.4% 46.2% 46.1% 46.0% 45.3% 45.1% Influx of the youth entering less rapidly growing work force creates growing unemployment rates Ratio of Youth and Elderly to working class is close to 1:1 could potentially decrease savings rates because smaller working class would be supporting larger non-working class 20% 10% 0% Uganda Niger Mali DR Congo Chad Ethiopia Burundi Burkina Faso Malawi Mayotte 3 Note: Youth population defined as under the age of 15 Source: CIA World Factbook

5 Given the amount of youth in Uganda, jobs are scarce driving high unemployment rates % Youth Unemployed 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 83% In Uganda, there are approximately 400,000 college graduates per year seeking employment from 80,000 meaningful jobs, thus increasing unemployment dramatically 80% 78% 76% 72% 62% 58% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Uganda Kenya Malawi Mozambique Nigeria Mauritania Sao Tome And Principe 4 Note: Unemployment rate for youth between ages 15 and 24 Source: 2008 World Bank Report Youth Unemployment, Uganda: Addressing the Education, Inequality

6 Agenda Youth Employment in Uganda Key Employment Sectors for Youth in STRYDE districts Maize Sector Analysis Pig Sector Analysis Action plan and contacts Appendix 5

7 Agriculture is the most important sector in Uganda with an increasing amount of households entering the industry the last 10 years Uganda employment statistics breakdown (% of employed) Number of agriculture households in Uganda (000s) % 0% Industry 8% CAGR (95-08) Services 23% Agriculture 69% Central Eastern Northern Western 0.4% 1.7% 4.0% 1.0% / / / / / Source: UNHS 1995/1996, UNHS 1999/2005, UNHS 2005/2006, Uganda Census of Agriculture 2008/2009, World Bank Uganda

8 In the districts where STRYDE is working, crop production is the main income generating activity Nwoya and Gulu District Percentage distribution of Ag Households Mityana, Kayunga, and Mukono District Percentage distribution of Ag Households Crop Production Livestock Production Fishery Trader Artisan Ag paid job Non-ag paid Unemployed HH work Crop Production Livestock Production Fishery Trader Artisan Ag paid job Non-ag paid Unemployed HH work 7 Source: UNHS 1995/1996, UNHS 1999/2005, UNHS 2005/2006, Uganda Census of Agriculture 2008/2009, World Bank Uganda

9 The primary focus for youth linkages is staple crops, horticulture and livestock production given the amount of households involved in agriculture Categories Staple Crops Horticulture (fruits) Livestock production Description Staple crops include sweet potatoes, dry beans, cassava, simsim, maize, sorghum, groundnuts, finger millet, and rice. Maize and dry beans are considered cash and staple crops and bear the most opportunities for youth given the low barriers to entry, high marketability, and quick turnaround of crop. Horticulture (fruits) includes matoke banana, sweet banana, pineapple, mango, citrus, and papaya. Although pineapple bears significant opportunity in the Kayunga district, startup costs and significant time for harvested crop prevent most youth from farming the fruit. Livestock production include poultry, goat, ducks, cattle, pig, and sheep. Pig and poultry farming have the most opportunity for youth although maize bran bears significant costs and reduces profit margins. 8

10 Key staple crop sectors in STRYDE districts Ngoya and Gulu District Production (In 1000 MT) 90 Mityana, Kayunga, and Mukono District Production (In 1000 MT) Sweet Potatos Sweet Potatos Dry beans Cassava Simsim Maize Sorghum Groundnuts Finger Millet Rice Dry beans Cassava Simsim Maize Sorghum Groundnuts Finger Millet Rice Source: 2008/2009 Uganda Census of Agriculture

11 Key fruit sectors in STRYDE districts Ngoya and Gulu District Production (In 1000 MT) 90 Mityana, Kayunga, and Mukono District Production (In 1000 MT) Pineapple 60 Pineapple 50 Citrus Papaya 50 Citrus Papaya Mango Mango 40 Passion fruit 40 Passion fruit Matoke Matoke 30 Sweet banana 30 Sweet banana Note: Matoke placed in fruits, but it is also a staple crop Source: 2008/2009 Uganda Census of Agriculture

12 Key livestock production sectors in STRYDE districts Ngoya and Gulu District Mityana, Kayunga, and Mukono District # of Livestock (In 1000 s) # of Livestock (In 1000 s) Poultry Goat Ducks Cattle Pig Sheep Poultry Goat Ducks Cattle Pig Sheep Source: 2002 Uganda Census of Agriculture (Stats not available in 2008/2009 Census of Agriculture

13 Second priority (Out of 6) First priority (Out of 10) Each sector must be measured with specific criteria to better understand the potential opportunity for youth in STRYDE districts Criteria Indicator Additional information Youth Farming Opportunities 1= Yield timing >= 1 year, high initial capital needed, large number of farming and harvesting constraints 10 = Two-three season crop, highly attractive to youth, few harvesting constraints Metrics for attractiveness include turnaround time of profit and low amounts of initial capital needed. Two-three crop season would rank higher because of more opportunities for quick capital turnaround Employability Opportunities Entrepreneurship Opportunities Ease of creating new jobs for youth Potential profitability Overall availability of jobs for youth Marketability in local market Marketability in regional market Prevalence 1= Very little opportunity in commodity for youth employability in areas such as on-farm labor, warehouse labor and milling labor 10 = Great opportunity in commodity for youth employability in labor activities 1 = Entrepreneurship opportunities <=1 such as transporting, roasting, input suppliers, traders/brokers, etc. 10 = Entrepreneurship opportunities >=5 such as transporting, input suppliers, roasting, traders/brokers, etc. 1 = Low demand for laborers, lack of milling support, lack of warehouse option, lack of marketability of crop 10 = High demand for day laborers, milling support, warehouse demand, high marketability of crop 1 = Profitability averages between 0 and 100,000 UGx/(acre or 10 pigs/20 chickens) 10 = Profitability averages over 1,000,000 UGx/(acre or 10 pigs/20 chickens) 1= jobs including farming, on farm labor, input supplier, value addition services, etc. 6 = >3600+ jobs including farming, on farm labor, input supplier, value addition services, etc. 1= Lack of local demand, non staple food, low value crop 6 = High and growing demand, staple food, high value crop 1 = Lack of regional demand, very little current export of product, low value worth of commodity 6 = Large and growing regional demand, high export in recent years, high value worth of commodity 1= 1,000 10,000 MT produced annually in STRYDE district, 6 = >60,000 MT produced annually in STRYDE district for crop and 1= MT, 6= >3,000 MT for livestock production Employability is correlated to worth of the commodity and commodity dynamics giving more opportunities for high worth high demand crops Entrepreneurship opportunities correlated to local and regional demand for crop. The more valuable the crop, the more opportunities for transport and input supply Difficulty of creating new jobs of youth is related to market dynamics of crop. For example, it would be difficult for youth to obtain jobs if there s a high demand for labor, but the crop is of very little value The higher the profitability of the crop, the better chance that the youth would want to get involved in farming that opportunity. Each crop is based on profitability per year. Job estimates: Input supply jobs depends on highest input demand from interview with UNADA, On farm labor jobs depends on marketability and price, Farming opportunities depends on land availability, access to finance, perception of farming through interviews and youth group forums. The local demand is important for youth to distribute on the local level for a quick profit The regional market demand is important as it opens up regional export of that specific crop, thus increasing opportunities for youth to farm that crop The prevalence of the crop is correlated to the crop potential in Northern Uganda. Most youth wouldn t be as interested in producing a crop that hasn t been proven before. Poultry assumption of 2 kg each and pigs of 35 kg each. 12 Source: Interviews, TNS analysis

14 Uganda s Key Youth Employment Sectors Staple Crops Fruit Livestock Criteria Maize Dry Beans Matoke Pineapple Poultry Pig Youth Farming Opportunities (10) Employability Opportunities (10) Entrepreneurship Opportunities (10) Ease of creating new jobs for youth (10) Potential profitability (10) Availability of jobs for youth (6) Marketability in local market (6) Marketability in regional market (6) Prevalence (6) Total (Out of 74) Source: Interviews, TNS analysis

15 Dry bean farming has many advantages, but dry beans lacks value addition opportunities for youth to get involved Criteria Youth Farming Opportunities Employability Opportunities Description There are many opportunities for youth farming in dry beans as the crop is grown in all STRYDE districts, does not require large amount of start up capital, is a 2-3 season/year crop and is not extremely labor intensive Opportunities in the dry bean value chain include warehouse labor support, and limited on farm labor Entrepreneurship Opportunities Ease of creating new jobs for youth Potential profitability Availability of jobs for youth Marketability in local market Marketability in regional market Prevalence Entrepreneurship opportunities include trader/brokers, aggregator/transporter, pesticide sprayer and input supplier There are limited opportunities for on farm labor and warehouse labor given the small sizes of the average farmer s dry bean farm 87, ,000 UGx/acre/season, 174, ,000 UGx/acre/year There are not an ample supply of existing jobs for youth because there are not an abundant amount of value addition opportunities along the dry beans value chain Dry beans are hugely marketable and are a main staple in Uganda. The market demand is not currently being met because farmers do not farm dry beans commercially There is a large regional demand for dry beans stemming from favorable varieties grown in Uganda and that dry beans are staples in many bordering countries There were 40,400 MT of dry beans grown in the STRYDE districts in the 2008/2009 seasons 14 Source: 2008/2009 Uganda Census of Agriculture, Interviews, TNS analysis

16 Matoke is one of the main staples in Uganda; however, it cannot be grown in the Northern Uganda STRYDE districts and lacks regional marketability Criteria Youth Farming Opportunities Employability Opportunities Description There are limited opportunities for youth farming in matoke as the crop is grown in only the central districts, requires a medium amount start up capital, and is quite labor intensive for one worker Employability opportunities in the matoke value chain include transporter support and on farm labor Entrepreneurship Opportunities Ease of creating new jobs for youth Potential profitability Availability of jobs for youth Marketability in local market Marketability in regional market Prevalence Entrepreneurship opportunities in matoke include trader/broker, aggregator/transporter, and input supplier There are a number of opportunities along the matoke value chain in areas like traders/brokers or aggregator/transporters, but a limited number of opportunities in value addition 300,000 1,000,000 UGx/acre/year There is a large opportunity for youth to farm matoke in the central districts where land isn t a constraint, but there is a lack of opportunity to grow matoke in the northern districts because of weather constraints. There are also limited opportunities for youth to get involved in other areas of the matoke value chain Matoke is the biggest staple of the Ugandan diet making the crop imperative for households across Uganda As matoke is only a staple crop in Uganda, there is extremely limited opportunity for export to regional markets There were 68,710 MT of matoke grown in the STRYDE districts in the 2008/2009 seasons 15 Source: 2008/2009 Uganda Census of Agriculture, Interviews, TNS analysis

17 The large amount of initial start up capital and lack of value addition opportunities makes pineapple farming difficult for youth Criteria Youth Farming Opportunities Employability Opportunities Description There are limited opportunities for youth farming in pineapple as the crop is grown in only the central districts, requires a large amount of initial capital and 18 months for the first harvest Employability opportunities in the pineapple value chain include transporter support and on farm labor Entrepreneurship Opportunities Ease of creating new jobs for youth Potential profitability Availability of jobs for youth Marketability in local market Marketability in regional market Prevalence Entrepreneurship opportunities in pineapple include trader/broker, aggregator/transporter, and input supplier As pineapple has the potential to be highly profitable for farmers, there are opportunities for youth to get involved in on farm labor although it would be difficult to create jobs outside of on farm labor because of finance constraints and lack of opportunities 1,160,000 3,000,000 UGx/acre/year There are limited opportunities for youth in pineapple farming as the crop requires large amounts of start up capital, takes 18-months for first harvest, and has few opportunities for value additional along the pineapple value chain Pineapple is hugely popular in the domestic market and can be seen sold as whole or sliced fruit along the roadside, to processors as pineapple juice, to informal market traders, and to confectionary stores and restaurants The sweetness and overall taste of the smooth cayenne, Uganda s main pineapple variety, attracts regional market traders and processors There were 37,260 MT of pineapple grown in the STRYDE districts in the 2008/2009 seasons 16 Source: 2008/2009 Uganda Census of Agriculture, Interviews, TNS analysis

18 Lack of existing jobs and difficult of creating additional jobs plague poultry farming for youth Criteria Youth Farming Opportunities Employability Opportunities Description There are opportunities for youth farming in poultry if the youth has access to startup capital as poultry requires weekly purchases of maize bran feed, which lacks substitutes Employability opportunities in the poultry value chain include on farm labor Entrepreneurship Opportunities Ease of creating new jobs for youth Potential profitability Availability of jobs for youth Marketability in local market Marketability in regional market Prevalence Entrepreneurship opportunities in poultry include egg salesman, egg distributor, egg trader/broker, poultry trader/broker, poultry roaster, and poultry aggregator/transporter There will be ample opportunities to create new jobs in both employment and entrepreneurship once more chicken and eggs are produced 500, ,000/ per year (assuming 20 chickens, twice per year) Due to the constraint of initial capital and ongoing capital, there are limited number of opportunities for youth to get involved in poultry farming As poultry is considered a luxury food item in Uganda, there is a large and growing demand for poultry as Ugandan GDP grows Similarly to Uganda, there is a large and growing demand for poultry in the bordering countries as GDP of East Africans continues to rise There were 792,000 chickens grown in the STRYDE districts in the 2002 season 17 Source: 2002 Uganda Census of Agriculture (Stats not available in 2008/2009 Census of Agriculture, Interviews, TNS analysis

19 Agenda Youth Employment in Uganda Key Employment Sectors for Youth in STRYDE districts Maize Sector Analysis Pig Sector Analysis Action plan and contacts Appendix 18

20 Opportunities for youth in maize are broken out by farming, employability, and entrepreneurship Youth Job opportunities Legend: Farmer Employed Entrepreneur Input Supply/ Services Production Traders/ Brokers Storage Milling Commercialization 19 Source: Interviews, TNS analysis

21 INPUT SUPPLY: Input Supplier opportunities Number of Jobs Explanation/Assu mptions Challenges Opportunities Youth trainings/skills needed to address opportunities Partnerships Additional information 27 input supplier opportunities Through conversations with UNADA district representatives, it was apparent that quality maize inputs and fertilizer were the highest demanded inputs. This presents an opportunity for youth to travel to areas in villages supply inputs during planting seasons. The assumptions are that 30% of new farmers will seek improved inputs and that there will be 1 input supplier for every 30 farmers Start-up capital: Start-up capital needed between 100,000 and 200,000 UGX to purchase enough materials to make a profit Road condition and transport to reach remote areas: Distance and poor road conditions to reach some farms may create challenges for youth to sell their inputs Start-up capital: Potential to partnership with microfinance organization or bank, utilized shared liability youth groups, or pursue vouchers for work program Road condition and transport to reach remote areas: Draw out routes for youth to reach remote areas in most efficient way targeting farmers that would most likely purchase inputs. Financial literacy training Ability to take clear and concise financial records to calculate profit/loss, and understanding of commission needed to generate profit Entrepreneurship training Understanding of sourcing avenues and which products are most marketable/profitable, driven to succeed despite having no guided support Life skills training Self-confidence to be able to sell inputs to farmers and ability to train farmers necessity of new and improved inputs Other skills Vast understanding of farming a variety of crops, and ability to detect poor quality seeds and inputs UNADA, Victoria Seeds, NASECO Seeds, Various wholesale input suppliers in counties,, BRAC, FINCA Uganda Input supply opportunities not exclusive to maize alone. Youth could supply other quality seeds based on demand for quality inputs 20 Source: Interviews, TNS analysis

22 INPUT SUPPLY: Pesticide sprayer opportunities Number of Jobs Explanation/Assu mptions Challenges 36 pesticide spraying opportunities As youth farmers are trained to become commercialized farmers, there will be a greater demand for pesticide spraying services, thus creating a new market opportunity for pesticide spraying. The assumptions are that 40% of new farmers will seek spraying to avoid crop disease and that there will be 1 pesticide sprayer for every 30 farmers. Start-up capital: Pesticide spray guns and spraying will require initial financing Demand for pesticide services: Demand for services may start low in northern region, so youth will have to be well trained in helping farmers understand benefits of pesticide spraying Opportunities Start-up capital: Potential to partnership with microfinance organization or bank, utilized shared liability youth groups, or pursue vouchers for work program Demand for pesticide services: TechnoServe can teach youth to target areas that have large infestation of pests and disease. Youth trainings/skills needed to address opportunities Partnerships Additional information 21 Financial literacy training Ability to take clear and concise financial records to calculate profit/loss, and understanding of commission needed to generate profit Entrepreneurship training Understanding of sourcing avenues and which products are most marketable/profitable, driven to succeed despite having no guided support Life skills training Self-confidence to be able to sell inputs to farmers and ability to train farmers necessity of new and improved inputs Other skills Expanding knowledge of which pesticides and herbicides have been abolished and shouldn t be used, UNADA Gulu office, UNADA Kampala Office, Mityana Spraying Foundation, Mukono Pesticide Supplies, BRAC, FINCA Uganda The pesticide spraying market is still underdeveloped as the majority farmers are subsistence farmers who don t want to or doesn t have the capital to put into their crop Source: Interviews, TNS analysis

23 PRODUCTION: Maize farming opportunities Number of Jobs 2700 maize farming opportunities (1100 in Gulu, 1000 in Nwoya, 225 in Mityana and Kayunga, 150 in Mukono) Explanation/Assu mptions There is still an unmet demand for maize in Northern and Central Uganda. Increased milling capacity and the commissioning of new WFP warehouses give opportunity to add value and store maize, creating a new avenue for maize. Through interviews, it became apparent that there was ample land available for farming in the North and that the youth would get involved in farming at a much faster in rate than the central region. Agriculture households have grown 4% to 907,000 in the Northern region and.4% to 805,000 in the Central region in the past 15 years as maize overall production continues to grow at 14% per annum in the past 10 years. Assuming growth rates remain stable, and that 57% of those agriculture households (2005 Uganda National Household Survey) go into maize farming, there will be 78,208 new maize farmers from 2012 to Program assumes that 14-15% new maize farmers will be in the STRYDE districts and that youth will comprise of 25% of those new farmers. Distribution of youth by region is based on land availability to youth and growth rates. Challenges Finance: Community holding of land titles until youth turn 40 years old prevent youth from using collateral to obtain loan financing. Most youth wouldn t use excess capital to purchase inputs. Production: Youth are unaware of the benefits of farming, lack organization, and potential lack a solid work ethic Commercialization: Farmers lack access to market and rely heavily on price setting traders and brokers. Youth lack awareness of market and potential profitability of maize farming Opportunities Finance: Set up Vouchers for Work Program to give youth access to internships and inputs or create shared liability youth groups for youth to obtain financing. Production: Teach youth farming as a business and address psychosocial analysis through mentorship and curriculum Commercialization: Train youth to be aware of market dynamics, cost/benefit of farming, and link youth to markets Youth trainings/skills needed to address opportunities Financial literacy training Ability to take concise records of costs of inputs, labor, harvest costs to understand cost per acre and selling price needed to generate ample profit Farming as a business training Understand planting period, when to spray pesticide, when and how often to weed, what fertilizer to use, when to harvest, and good agronomic practice in harvesting to fetch higher prices Other skills Ability to organize into groups to take advantage of borrowing schemes, group trainings, bulk input purchases, bulk sales and marketing, and utilization of warehouse program Partnerships UNADA, NARO, WFP Gulu, Jinja Agroways, Victoria Seeds, NASECO Seeds, BRAC, FINCA Uganda 22 Source: Interviews, TNS analysis, 2005 Uganda National Household Survey

24 PRODUCTION: On Farm Laborer opportunities Number of Jobs Explanation/Assu mptions Challenges Opportunities Youth trainings/skills needed to address opportunities Partnerships Additional information 540 on farm labor opportunities As the number of households going into agriculture has increased since the LRA conflict, there is an expectation that there will be more on-farm labor jobs for youth to find employment and instant capital. Key assumption that there will be 1 new on farm laborer for every 5 new farmers. Youth perspective of on-farm labor: On-farm labor pays little compared to other jobs, so youth generally have a negative perception of these jobs On-farm jobs not sustainable growth for long term income generation: On farm labor employ youth during portions of seasons and make the youth susceptible for unemployment during non-harvest seasons Youth perspective of on-farm labor: Help youth understand that utilizing on-farm skills are extremely beneficial for farming as a business. Encourage youth to save and use small amount of capital for input supplies On-farm jobs not sustainable growth for long term income generation: Help youth understand different crop harvesting dynamics for youth to realize which farms need assistance at which times and be proactive to obtain on-farm labor jobs Life skills training Ability to overcome idleness, social and emotional constraints and dependence on family members and motivation to find work Other skills Understanding of maize harvesting seasons, and ability to use a hoe and other farming tools to weed and harvest maize Gulu, Mityana, Mukono, and Kayunga Farmers Association Generally a low paying job for youth with very limited capacity. On-farm labor jobs will generally be more plentiful for higher valued crops 23 Source: Interviews, TNS analysis

25 TRADERS/BROKERS: Trader/broker opportunities Number of Jobs 86 maize trader/broker opportunities Explanation/Assu mptions Challenges Opportunities Youth trainings/skills needed to address opportunities With increase market opportunity and more youth beginning to farm, traders/brokers have the opportunity to purchase from youth groups and farm and transport to medium scale traders. Key assumptions that average youth farm size will be 1.5 acres, average production will be 1.5MT/ha or 610 kg/acre and that average trader will take 10MT of maize per season. Start-up capital: M Ugx shilling for boda boda, 100k-300k for bicycle, renting vehicle varies based on size and distance Transportation issues and variability of fuel prices: Road constraints and increasing trend of fuel prices cuts into rural traders profit margins Commodity price fluctuation: Variance of prices can create losing opportunities if prices goes below cost threshold Start-up capital: Potential to partnership with microfinance organization or bank, utilized shared liability youth groups, or pursue vouchers for work program Transportation issues and variability of fuel prices: Draw out road maps and help youth realize how to calculate cost per kilometer based on transportation means Commodity price fluctuation: Teach youth how to use mobile devices to find maize prices and help the understand year over year price variance by season Financial literacy training Ability to take clear and concise financial records to calculate profit/loss, understanding of commission needed to generate profit and constant and up-to-date knowledge market dynamics and potential fluctuations of commodity prices in local markets Entrepreneurship training Develop business plan and strategy, manage own schedule, create and leverage business relationships with farmers, traders, and transporters, save money for future inventory purchases, Other skills Needs transportation means to take commodities from buying to selling point, and ability to drive on difficult roads and carry large bags of commodity on transport Partnerships WFP Gulu, Jinja Agroways, Gulu Commodity Traders Association 24 Source: Interviews, TNS analysis, FAO

26 TRADERS/BROKERS: Maize Aggregator/Transporter opportunities Number of Jobs Explanation/Assu mptions Challenges Opportunities Youth trainings/skills needed to address opportunities Partnerships 17 maize transport opportunities Additional information 25 Source: Interviews, TNS analysis There is a large regional and local transport opportunity that is currently underdeveloped. The Southern Sudan market traditionally demands much higher prices and there s a major opportunity for Gulu to meet that growing market. Key assumptions of farmers plus average size of transport = 10MT, 10 trips per season and 2 transporters per trip Start-up capital: Start-up capital needed between M Ugx depending on size of truck and price paid for maize Maize price fluctuation: Variance of prices can create losing opportunities if prices goes below cost threshold Road condition, traffic, and politics in Southern Sudan market: Large market opportunity in Southern Sudan met with influx of agricultural traders and transporters Start-up capital: Potential to partnership with microfinance organization or bank, utilized shared liability youth groups, or pursue vouchers for work program Maize price fluctuation: Teach farmers how to track commodity prices through SMS updates. Southern Sudan maize prices are around 1200 UGX/kg higher than Gulu maize prices making it a very attractive market opportunity Road condition, traffic, and politics in Southern Sudan market: Organize youth groups to hedge risk of transportby shared liability agreement among youth to pool resources Financial literacy training Ability to derive cost/benefit analysis and a firm understanding of needed commission for a profitable endeavour, and understanding market dynamics and fluctuations of commodity prices in both local and regional markets Entrepreneurship training Develop business plan and strategy, manage own schedule, create and leverage business relationships with traders, and medium/large scale traders, save money for future inventory purchases, and ability to determine best combination of commodity for maximum profit Other skills Ability to drive commercial vehicles in difficult roads, especially the roads from Gulu to Juba in Northern region, and traffic situations, and access to warehouse or other avenue to aggregate commodities WFP Gulu, Jinja Agroways, traders/brokers (suppliers), Medium/large scale traders (customers), BRAC, FINCA Uganda Transporters would be able to realize large amounts of profit, but large amounts of initial capital needed could prevent youth from taking advantage of this endeavour

27 STORAGE: Warehouse Laborer opportunities Number of Jobs Explanation/Assu mptions Challenges Opportunities Youth trainings/skills needed to address opportunities Employers Additional information 100 warehouse laborer opportunities There is one WFP commissioned warehouse in Northern Uganda and a planned WFP warehouse in the Kamuli district of Central Uganda. With the increase in maize warehouse capacity, there will be additional opportunities for youth to find employment as warehouse operators. Key assumptions that there will be 50 warehouse laborer opportunities per warehouse once capacity utilization has been increased at WFP Gulu and Kamuli warehouse in operation. Competition for new jobs: There will most likely be competition for new warehouse worker jobs by youth with prior work experience in labor Timeframe for jobs: New jobs could be available before youth are well equipped with skills needed to obtain them Competition for new jobs: Understand job requirements and refine youth skills to meet those job requirements Timeframe for jobs: Continue discussions with warehouse operators to gain better understanding of timing challenges of job requests and give them insight to how the STRYDE program is designed If Vouchers program is implemented, offer part time internships with opportunity to transition into paid position after vouchers program Life skills training Ability to overcome idleness, social and emotional constraints and dependence on family members to take jobs in this sector Others skills Honest work ethic, hard working, ability to keep time, lift heavy bags of maize and work night shifts WFP Gulu (Northern), Jinja Agroways (Central region), WFP Kamuli (Central region) - planned Generally a low paying job for youth with very limited capacity. Jobs can be inconsistent if capacity utilization is low and will most likely be seasonal with maize and potentially dry bean seasons 26 Source: Interviews, TNS analysis

28 STORAGE: Commodity holder opportunities Number of Jobs Explanation/Assu mptions Challenges Opportunities Youth trainings/skills needed to address opportunities Partnerships 43 commodity holder opportunities The opening of WFP Gulu and upcoming opening of Kamuli warehouse creates opportunities for organized youth groups to purchase maize from traders/brokers with soul purpose of taking advantage of price fluctuations by utilizing the Warehouse Receipt System. Key assumptions that 50% of traders/brokers can be purchased by commodity holders to be stored in the warehouse to take advantage of price variance. Start-up capital: Start-up capital needed between 1.0 and 1.5M UGX per youth group to reach economies to scale Organized Youth Groups: Youth are currently unorganized preventing youth from purchasing excess of 3MT needed to take advantage of Warehouse Receipt System Maize price fluctuation: Variance of prices can create losing opportunities if prices goes below cost threshold Start-up capital: Potential to partnership with microfinance organization or bank, utilized shared liability youth groups, or pursue vouchers for work program Organized Youth Groups: TechnoServe can train youth on importance of organizing to groups and good governance Maize price fluctuation: Teach youth how to use mobile devices to find maize prices and help the understand year over year price variance by season Financial literacy training Ability to take clear and concise financial records to calculate profit/loss Entrepreneurship training Develop business plan and strategy, and ability to create business linkages with maize traders/brokers to supply best quality seed Other skills Understanding past annual market dynamics and fluctuations in Uganda, patience to wait through maize price fluctuations, diligence to stay up-to-date on maize prices throughout the region WFP Gulu, Jinja Agroways, WFP Kamuli planned, Centenary Bank, Equity Bank, Housing Finance Bank, BRAC, FINCA Uganda Additional information 27 Commodity holders is a new market opportunity. Single youth with no children have less responsibilities than married youth and can use liquid income to purchase maize as a youth group, hold onto the commodity after getting receipt, and sell maize outside of harvest Source: Interviews, TNS analysis

29 MILLING: Mill Laborer opportunities Number of Jobs Explanation/Assu mptions Challenges Opportunities Youth trainings/skills needed to address opportunities Employers Additional Information 188 Mill Laborer opportunities There are two new maize millers in Northern Uganda and three new maize millers in Central Uganda. With the increase in maize milling production, both general managers in the north stated that they would be looking to hire between youth in Key assumptions that millers in Northern Uganda and Central Uganda hire on average between workers per miller. Competition for new jobs: There will most likely be competition for new milling worker jobs by youth with prior work experience in labor Timeframe for jobs: New jobs could be available before youth are well equipped with skills needed to obtain them Competition for new jobs: Understand job requirements and refine youth skills to meet those job requirements Timeframe for jobs: Continue discussions with miller operators to gain better understanding of timing challenges of job requests and give them insight to how the STRYDE program is designed If Vouchers program is implemented, offer part time internships with opportunity to transition into paid position after vouchers program Life skills training Ability to overcome idleness, social and emotional constraints and dependence on family members to take jobs in this sector Others skills Honest work ethic, hard working, ability to keep time, lift heavy bags of maize and work night shifts Peyero Millers (Northern), Louis Enterprises (Northern), Gulu Grain Millers, Mukono Millers, Mityana Millers, Kayunga millers Generally a low paying job for youth with very limited capacity. Jobs can be inconsistent if capacity utilization is low and will most likely be seasonal with maize and potentially dry bean seasons 28 Source: Interviews, TNS analysis

30 COMMERCIALIZATION: Roaster opportunities Number of Jobs Explanation/Assu mptions Challenges Opportunities Youth trainings/skills needed to address opportunities Partnerships 54 roaster opportunities In many areas in and around Gulu, maize roasting has taken off creating a new opportunity for youth to make quick income from a business that needs very little start-up capital. Key assumption that roasting opportunities account for 2% of new farming opportunities. Seasonal business: Maize is a two season crop, making it difficult for youth to employed year around through maize roasting Ability to purchase maize at competitive rate: Depending on timing in season, maize market prices may make maize roasting unprofitable Perception of roasting: There is a negative perception that maize roasting is for people who failed in other fields making it unfavourable for youth Seasonal business: Teach youth to use maize off-season to sell groundnuts or other commodities by the roadside Ability to purchase maize at competitive rate: Create linkages of youth to traders/brokers, so that youth can obtain most favourable market rate Perception of roasting: Teach youth the intricacies of entrepreneurship and the benefits of being an entrepreneur Financial literacy training Ability to take clear and concise financial records to calculate profit/loss, and understanding of commission needed to generate profit Entrepreneurship training Develop business plan and strategy, manage own schedule, self-motivated, understanding of highest unmet demand for a roaster, business linkages to trader/brokers for supply of maize, up-to-date knowledge of fluctuating maize and coal prices, ability to manage own capital and inventory levels Other skills Customer service skills to encourage repeat business Traders/brokers, Youth Entrepreneurship Centre, Entrepreneurs in Action 29 Source: Interviews, TNS analysis

31 In summary, a total of approximately of 3900 youth related jobs can be created through increased maize farming Ease of job creation Input Supplier 80 Pesticide Sprayer Farmer On Farm Labor 60 Trader/Broker Aggregation/Transport Warehouse Laborer Commodity Holder Mill Laborer Roaster Attractiveness of opportunity 30 Source: Interviews, TNS analysis

32 Agenda Youth Employment in Uganda Key Employment Sectors for Youth in STRYDE districts Maize Sector Analysis Pig Sector Analysis Action plan and contacts Appendix 31

33 There are many opportunities for youth to take advantage of income generating activities in the piggery sector Youth Job opportunities Legend: Farmer Employed Entrepreneur Input Supply/ Services Production Traders/ Brokers Processor Commercializa tion 32 Source: Interviews, TNS analysis

34 INPUT SUPPLY: Maize Bran Distributing opportunities Number of Jobs Explanation/Assu mptions Challenges Opportunities Youth trainings/skills needed to address opportunities Partnerships Additional information 53 maize bran distributing opportunities Maize bran is important as feed for both poultry and pigs. As maize bran is quite expensive at 5,000 per kilogram, some farmers will choose to feed their pigs scraps around the house and leftover food. Key assumptions that 50% of new farmers will want a weekly supply of maize bran and that there will be 1 input supplier for every 10 farmers Start-up capital: Start-up capital needed between 100,000 and 200,000 UGX to purchase enough materials to distribute to farmers at small profit Road condition and transport to reach remote areas: Distance and poor road conditions to reach some farms may create challenges for youth to sell their inputs Start-up capital: Potential to partnership with microfinance organization or bank or utilized shared liability youth groups Road condition and transport to reach remote areas: Draw out routes for youth to reach remote areas in most efficient way targeting farmers that would most likely purchase inputs and feed Financial literacy training Ability to take clear and concise financial records to calculate profit/loss, and understanding of commission needed to generate profit Entrepreneurship training Develop business plan and strategy, understanding the best sourcing avenues, ability to create sustainable relationships with farmers to become main supplier, driven to succeed despite having little to no guided support Life skills training Self-confidence to be able to sell maize bran to farmers and show farmers value addition of using maize bran versus left-over food and other substitutes Other skills Vast understanding of livestock production and ability to detect poor quality maize bran UNADA Gulu, UNADA Kampala, Agribusiness Initiative Trust, JN Agritech International Ltd. Ability as a maize brand distributor is based on repeat customers and ability for youth to draw out realistic map of supplying opportunities as highest demand for maize bran supply services will be remote livestock farmers 33 Source: Interviews, TNS analysis

35 INPUT SUPPLY: Veterinary Services Supplier opportunities Number of Jobs Explanation/Assu mptions Challenges Opportunities 11 veterinary services opportunities African Swine Fever is a major killer of pigs in Uganda. As such, there is a current undersupply of quality veterinary services for pig farmers to pursue thus more farmers would require more youth offering veterinary services. The assumptions are that 30% of new farmers will seek improved inputs and that there will be 1 input supplier for every 30 farmers Lack of knowledge of veterinary services: Given that STRYDE is working with rural youth, there may be a lack of knowledge around proper pig farming techniques Road condition and transport to reach remote areas: Distance and poor road conditions to reach some farms may create challenges for youth to sell their inputs Lack of knowledge of veterinary services: : Link youth to pig farming experts and district veterinary experts, so youth can gain specific skills in knowing how to reach pig farmers. Utilize books such as A Guide to Pig Production at Farm Level, which will increase youth s understanding of pig farming Road condition and transport to reach remote areas: Draw out routes for youth to reach remote areas in most efficient way targeting farmers that own pigs and would need the veterinary services Youth trainings/skills needed to address opportunities Entrepreneurship training - Develop business plan and strategy, and ability to network with pig farming experts and district veterinary services who are willing to train youth in veterinary services. Life Skills training - Self-confidence to be able to sell his/her supplies and services to capital constrained pig farmers Other skills Vast understanding of pig farming and a detailed knowledge of proper pig handling and best practices to help build capacity of farmers Partnerships David Mutetikka and Matia Kabuye Pig farming expert, Makerere University Tonny Aliro District Veterinary expert, Gulu District Veterinary Kayunga, Mukono, Mityana, Nwoya Vetcare Supplies and Services 34 Source: Interviews, TNS analysis

36 PRODUCTION: Pig farming opportunities Number of Jobs 1050 pig farming opportunities (300 in Gulu, 250 in Nwoya, 200 in Mityana, 150 in Kayunga, and 150 in Mukono) Explanation/Assu mptions In the Northern region, the market for pork is growing quickly coupled with the largest percentage of households in Uganda entering farming in the past 15 years. The greatest opportunity in the central region for pig farming lies in Mityana, which already has youth groups wanting to enter the piggery market and can meet the growing Kampala market demand. Mukono and Kayunga are also ideally placed to meet the pork demand in Kampala. The constraints for these markets is land availability for youth and limited start-up capital. Agriculture households have grown 4% to 907,000 in the Northern region and.4% to 805,000 in the Central region in the past 15 years. Assuming similar growth rates and that 9.7% of those households (Uganda Census of Agriculture 2002) go into pig farming, there will be 13,309 new pig farming households from 2012 to Program assumes 14-15% of those in STRYDE districts and 50% are youth farmers as youth are more excited to start pig farming than maize farming. Distribution of youth by region is based on land availability to youth and growth rates. Challenges Finance: Pig farming can be expensive given the initial cost of piglets, fluctuating price of maize bran feed and cost of creating a housing structure for the pigs Production: Poor production habits stemming lack of attention and maintenance can kill a majority of the pigs, fetch the farmer a smaller price at market, and make the pigs more susceptible to African Swine Flu Commercialization: Farmers lack access to market and rely heavily on price setting traders and brokers. Youth lack awareness of market and potential profitability of pig farming Opportunities Finance: Create shared liability youth groups for youth to obtain financing or create youth groups focused on pig farming (done in Mityana) where youth pool resources to purchase pigs to farm Youth trainings/skills needed to address opportunities Production: Teach youth hard work involved in farming and help them understand the production dynamics of pig farming and best practice in terms of what to feed them, how to watch them, where pigs should live, etc Commercialization: Train youth to be aware of market dynamics, cost/benefit of farming, and link youth to markets Financial literacy training - Ability to take concise records of costs of feed, structures, vet services to understand cost per pig and selling price needed to generate ample profit Farming as a business training - Understand different breed of pigs, what to feed pigs, how much and how often to feed, structure needed in place for piggery housing, necessary veterinary services, when and how to properly breed pigs, price volatility of pork, etc. Entrepreneurship training Develop a business plan and strategy, ability to network with pig farming experts, piglet suppliers, main bran distributors, and understanding of the risks and rewards in entrepreneurship Partnerships Pig farming experts Mutetikka, David and Kabuye, Matia Makerere University, Various butchers in Kampala and Gulu,, BRAC, FINCA Uganda 35 Source: Interviews, TNS analysis, Uganda Census of Agriculture 2002 (pig farming statistics not available in later statistics)

37 TRADER/BROKER: Trader/Broker opportunities Number of Jobs 61 pig trader/broker opportunities Explanation/Assu mptions Challenges Opportunities Youth trainings/skills needed to address opportunities Partnerships 36 With increase market opportunity and more youth beginning to farm, traders/brokers have the opportunity to purchase from youth groups and pig farmers. Key assumptions that 75% of farmers utilize traders/brokers, each farmer has an average of 4 pigs, and each trader takes one pig per week for the year. Start-up capital: Transportation can be very expensive M Ugx shilling for used boda boda, 100k-300k for bicycle, renting vehicle varies based on size and distance Transportation issues and variability of fuel prices: Road constraints and increasing trend of fuel prices cuts into rural traders profit margins Commodity price fluctuation: Variance of prices can create losing opportunities if prices goes below cost threshold Start-up capital: Potential to partnership with microfinance organization or bank, utilized shared liability youth groups, or pursue vouchers for work program Transportation issues and variability of fuel prices: Draw out road maps and help youth realize how to calculate cost per kilometer based on transportation means Commodity price fluctuation: Teach youth how to use mobile devices to find pig market prices and help the understand year over year price variance by season Financial literacy training Ability to take clear and concise financial records to calculate profit/loss, understanding of commission needed to generate profit and constant and up-to-date knowledge market dynamics and potential fluctuations of pig prices in local markets Entrepreneurship training Develop business plan and strategy, manage own schedule, create and leverage business relationships with farmers, traders, and transporters, save money for future inventory purchases, Other skills Needs ample transportation means to take pigs from buying to selling point, and ability to drive on difficult roads Gulu Abattoir Association, Roadside pork joints any other small to mid-size restaurants serving pork in the STRYDE districts Source: Interviews, TNS analysis