Poultry Development in Eastern Africa, What next? Mackenzie N. Masaki & Adriaan Vernooij, 22 June 2018

Transcription

1 Poultry Development in Eastern Africa, What next? Mackenzie N. Masaki & Adriaan Vernooij, 22 June 2018

2 Contents 1. East Africa s Poultry Sector. 2. Inputs i.e. Feed and Day old Chicks 3. Market 4. Investing in East Africa s Poultry Sector

3 Global average SSA average Nigeria Ghana Ethiopia Uganda Tanzania Rwanda Kenya Consumption kg/ person/ year East Africa s poultry sector is growing steadily in (value and volume) and there is a lot of room for improvement 16,00 Rwanda Uganda Tanzania 14,00 12,00 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00 Kenya Broilers Layers Indigenous Source: World Animal Protection (WAP) Africa, 2017; FAO stats; and NABC Analysis 2017 Total bird population in East Africa, Source: OECD Data, FAO Data and NABC Analysis Per Capita consumption of poultry meat *2025, estimates

4 Increasingly regional landscapes that driving regional blocks towards comparative advantage considerations for trade and investment. East African Community (EAC) Member States: 6 Imports (US$ B): 36 GDP (US$ B):110 Population (Millions): 153 Countries Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. Common Markets for East and Southern Africa (COMESA) Member States: 19 Imports (US$ B): 150 GDP (US$ B): 690 Population (Millions): 406 Countries Burundi, Comoros, D.R. Congo, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Rwanda, Seychelles, Sudan, Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

5 There are both positive and negative consequences to increased regional trade in East Africa

6 Regionalisation in poultry development East Africa Markets, average price of day old chicks Kenya Uganda Tanzania Rwanda High feed costs; Poor quality feeds, not consistently available; Power black outs; Cost, quality and availability of DOCs; Multiplicity of poultry associations; Middlemen; High feed costs; Poor quality feeds, not consistently available; Weak poultry association; Knowledge and training; High feed costs; Cost, quality and availability of DOCs; and Hygiene and biosecurity challenges; and High feed costs; and Poor quality feeds, not consistently available; Knowledge and training. Cost, quality and availability of DOCs. Poor quality feeds, not consistently available. Biosecurity challenges; and

7 Contents 1. East Africa s Poultry Sector. 2. Inputs i.e. Feed and Day old Chicks 3. Market 4. Investing in East Africa s Poultry Sector

8 In principal there are 5 types of commercial chicken found in East Africa 1. Kari Improved Kienyeji; 2. Kenbro chicken; 3. Kuroiler (dual purpose); 4. Sasso; and 5. Rainbow rooster.

9 Price/ Kg of Feed in USD ($/kg) UGANDA RWANDA TANZANIA KENYA DR CONGO BURUNDI Price/ head of Day old chicks in USD ($/head) UGANDA RWANDA TANZANIA KENYA DR CONGO BURUNDI Regionalisation in poultry development East Africa Markets, average price of day old chicks 1,37 1,25 1,04 1,04 1,14 0,34 0,44 0,36 0,42 0,58 0,81 0,50 0,83 0,59 0,59 0,79 0,76 0,18 Average price of day old chicks (layers) Average Price of day old chicks (broilers) Prices as at June 2015, Source: FAO Prices as at June 2015, Source: FAO

10 Hatchery production (Broilers, Layers & Dual) Total Harchery production # of birds Despite challenges with consitent energy and quality hatcheries in EA are growing steadiliy / / / / /17 Kenya Tanzania Uganda Total Source: NABC analysis based on FAO, USDA and World Animal Protection data, 2017

11 Ingredients and inputs for feed contribute siginificantly to the final price of feed, grains play a major role East Africa grain trade for the week ending 8 September 2017 Source: Betta Grains.

12 Maize is a major ingredient for feed and is also the main staple crop for most of sub sahara Africa Maize Millet Rice, paddy Sorghum Wheat Production (t) Area (ha) % of total production 43% 10% 18% 14% 15% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Top five grains under cultivation in Sub Sahara Africa and the volume of production. Source: FAO stats, FAO Statistics Division, 04 October 2015

13 EA s feed sector is thriving and has been growing steadily for Feed production (MT) per country Total feed production (MT) the past 10 years / / / / /17 Kenya Tanzania Uganda Total Source: NABC analysis based on FAO, USDA and World Animal Protection data, 2017

14 Contents 1. East Africa s Poultry Sector. 2. Inputs i.e. Feed and Day old Chicks 3. Market 4. Investing in East Africa s Poultry Sector

15 There are 2 main routes to market for feed companies, each with its own charateristics, defined by the types of farmers Large scale farmers Direct to consumers (B2B) as most farmers are commercial farms. Relatively cheaper prices per kg and larger volumes. Of the total volume of feed produced commercial farms consume approximately 20% to 30%. Supply is often arranged by the feed producer who also then caters for logistics and can supply country wide. Quality is consistent and un-adulterated. These are estimates tabulated from the 2014/15 and 2016/17 feed manufacturers with deference to the ratio between commercial and backyard production systems in Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya. The primary data sources were ILRI and the World Animal Protection data. Small and medium scale farmers Works through networks of whole sellers and distributors often with local coverage and very rarely national coverage. Characterised by smaller volumes i.e. 5kg to 20kg units. Often the per kg price is much higher than when bought in bulk. Approximately 70% to 80% of feed is distributed through shops, agro-vets and other types of re-sellers located closer to the producers. Producers have to arrange their own logistics to source the feed. There are no guarantees to the quality of feed produced though the source might be good there are cases of feed adulteration across the region.

16 Growth can be seen both at national and regional levels Drivers for growth of intra-regional trade in poultry products Land productivity; Public agricultural expenditure; Efficiency of customs clearing; Quality of port, rail and connections between countries; Road density; Streamlining of regulatory environment; and Enforcement of laws and regulation. Drivers for growth of the East African poultry sector Growing middle class in the region; Growth of foreign quick service restaurants in the region; Rapid urbanisation; and Increased disposable incomes.

17 Contents 1. East Africa s Poultry Sector. 2. Inputs i.e. Feed and Day old Chicks 3. Market 4. Investing in East Africa s Poultry Sector

18 Regionalisation in poultry development East Africa, criteria for a standardized competitiveness index. Performance score: Country A Country B Population 4 3 GPD per capita 2 2 Urbanisation 3 2 Acreage for crops 4 2 Infrastructure: hatcheries 3 4 Infrastructure: feed millers 3 4 Econonomic protectionism 2 3 % of GDP in agricultural research 3 2 Harbour facilities 3 4 Road network 3 4 Livestock (poultry) education 1 3 Climate (temperature, rainfall, humidity, risk of disasters) 2 3 Corruption (TI Index) 4 2 Reliability power supply 3 4 Quality veterinary services 2 3 Reliability power supply Corruption (TI Index) Climate (temperature, rainfall, humidity, risk of Alternative animal protein production options. Quality veterinary services Livestock (poultry) education Poultry competitiveness index Road network Country A Population 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Harbour facilities Country B GPD per capita Urbanisation Acreage for crops Infrastructure: hatcheries Infrastructure: feed millers Econonomic protectionism % of GDP in agricultural research

19 Thank you Questions