Food security: competing claims on land and water

Transcription

1 Food security: competing claims on land and water Tony Allan London Water Research Group - King s College & SOAS Food & environmental security: the role of food & agricultural trade IPC - Salzburg 11 May 2009

2 1 Structure of availability & demand for water 2 Trends in the demand for water 3 Water scarcity and water security - poverty determines water poverty, water poverty does not determine poverty 4 The role of global trade in water & food security

3 1 Structure of availability & demand for water

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5 The consequences of asymmnetric rainfall Source Nasa

6 Asymmetric RESPONSES Global Irrigated Area Map Source IWMI.org Look at the International Water Management Institute [IWMI] website

7 Types of water Fresh water 10% Domestic and industrial Soil water

8 Types of water Fresh water 10% Domestic and industrial Soil water Irrigated crops 90% Total food & water sufficiency Rainfed crops

9 Types of water High cost Fresh water 10% Domestic and industrial Small water Soil water Irrigated crops 90% Big water Rainfed crops Low or no cost

10 Types of water Fresh water 10% Dom & Ind y Soil water Egypt Irrigated crops S.Africa UK 90% Total food & water sufficiency Deficit Rainfed crops Deficit Deficit

11 Types of water Manufactured water - desalination Coastal Fresh water Soil water 10% Egypt Dom & Ind y Irrigated crops S.Africa UK 90% Total food & water sufficiency Rainfed crops Virtual water - 20% of all water for crop/livestock production is traded Trade -big & flexible

12 Types of water Technology Manufactured water - desalination Coastal Fresh water Soil water 10% Egypt Dom & Ind y Irrigated crops S.Africa UK 90% Total food & water sufficiency Rainfed crops VW Trade Virtual water - 20% of all water for crop/livestock production is traded Trade -big & flexible

13 Proportion of green water in total agricultural water fluxes per 0.5 degree grid cell (Rost & Gerten submitted)

14 Ratio of green and blue water in virtual water exports, calculated by the GEPIC model (Yang et al. 2006) Next An example of the complex discursive politics of invisible & silent reallocation & how the enabling underlying fundamentals are overwhelmed.

15 Virtual water in international trade is unmatched in the volumes of water mobilised by long distance movement.

16 More important it is unmatched in its: flexibility of sourcing flexibility of the delivery of remedies to distant regions enduring water deficits, including groundwater basins Engineered local storage and distribution cannot match these qualities.

17 Virtual water: is economically invisible and politically silent These qualities give it a very special and problematic role in water policy-making and reform

18 Virtual water also: has some other hidden and unintended USEFUL resource & economic consequences 1 Saves water globally 2 Moves from water efficient regions to less water efficient regions Would policy instruments achieve this?

19 National water loss Global water saving National water saving 62 km3/year 44 km3/year 106 km3/year An example of global water savings thro the virtual water import of husked rice from the US to Mexico

20 1 Structure of demand for water 2 Trends in the demand for water

21 stimates of historical consumption of the different types of water per head m3 per day per capita 7 6 Transportation Services 5 4 Industry Food/agriculture Food/agriculture Energy Primitive Hunting Primiitive agricultural Advanced agricultural Industrial Technological

22 stimates of historical consumption of the different types of water per head m3 per day per capita Transportation Services Industry Food/agriculture Food/agriculture Energy Half million years 200 years 0 Primitive 500k 50k 5k Years BP log scale Hunting Primiitive agricultural Advanced agricultural Industrial Technological

23 Estimates of historical consumption of the different types of water per head m3 per day per capita Transportation Services Industry Food/agriculture Food/agriculture Energy Half million years 200 years 0 Primitive 500k 50k 5k Years BP log scale Hunting Primiitive agricultural Advanced agricultural Industrial Technological

24 Comparison of historical consumption of energy [1000kcal/day] and water per capita [m3/day] Energy

25 Consequences of different political cultures on consumption 1268mn 1004mn 1453mn 1448mn 1424m n 1808mn

26 Consequences of different politcal cultures on consumption 1268mn 1004mn 1453mn 1448mn Vegetarian Nonvegetarian 1424m n 1808mn

27 65mn 108mn 145mn

28 So do you all use? 2.5 or 5.0 m3/day for food Consumer behaviour is key Vegetarians need 2.5 m3/day Non-vegetarians need 5 m3/day

29 Hoekstra et al

30 Hoekstra et al

31 Hoekstra et al

32 Moving people: moving water demand A different perspective - demographic water footprints - vw and water footprints of migration SIWI Water Front 2008

33 Recent

34 25 mn jobs support 70 mn Jobs enable families to solve their water, food, energy, education problems & they can pay taxes c70mn

35 What do consumers know? What appears in the press is only as good as our ability to engage with journalists AND the prejudices of the media owners Guardian

36 1 Structure of demand for water 2 Trends in the demand for water 3 Water scarcity and water security - poverty determines water poverty, water poverty does not determine poverty

37 See FAO website for 1970 to 2000 animation Data for 2000

38 Water security via a threefold synergy Security is achieved in the problemshed as well as in the watershed Water professionals and agricultural policy makers tend to over- privilege the potential of the watershed

39 There are three invisible hydro-economic processes that water short enable economies such as those of the MENA and southern African regions for example where inexpensive water is increasingly scarce to be secure:

40 There are three invisible hydro-economic processes that enable water scarce economies to be secure: 1 Soil water in other catchments

41 It will be shown that there are three invisible hydro-economic processes that enable water scarce economies to be secure: 1 Soil water in other catchments 2 International trade in staple food commodities: virtual water

42 It will be shown that there are three invisible hydro-economic processes that enable water scarce economies to be secure: 1 Soil water in other catchments 2 International trade in staple food commodities: virtual water 3 Socio-economic development rural and national which enables politically feasible water re-allocation

43 What do consumers and policymakers know? Guardian

44 1 Structure of demand for water 2 Trends in the demand for water 3 Water scarcity and water security - poverty determines water poverty, water poverty does not determine poverty 4 The role of global trade in water & food security

45 SIWI World Water Week Morelli/Hoekstra

46 SIWI IPC World Salzburg Water Week 2008

47 SIWI IPC World Salzburg Water Week 2008

48 SIWI IPC World Salzburg Water Week 2008

49 SIWI IPC World Salzburg Water Week 2008

50 National water for domestic use SIWI IPC World Salzburg Water Week 2008

51 National water for food etc SIWI IPC World Salzburg Water Week 2008

52 Virtual water flows - crops & livestock (Chapagain & Hoekstra 2004)

53 Source: International Water Management Institute, Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture Research Report 4

54 FEW major net VW exporters MANY net VW importers Policies impacting exporters probably more effective than those impacting importers Source: International Water Management Institute, Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture Research Report 4

55 Some unintended and non-intuitive consequences of recent invisible VW trade in the world s asymmetric circumstances that benefit the weak partners and the environment Economic & Environmental Impacts 1 Substantial water savings through VW trade 2 Green water has been the main source of traded VW 3 Consumers, markets & policy-makers are blind to green water & its role. What is the significance for trade policy?? Absence of armed conflict 4 No water wars BUT conflict in hegemonic circumstances is the norm the dominant riparian prevails

56 Conclusions 1 Water security currently depends on the global political economy as well as on global hydrology. Water security is achieved beyond the local watershed and international boundary via trade 2 Fortunately we only have to face a future population of 8 to 9 billions 3 Climate change is only one driving force & with respect to water and biomass [crops] it will have both positive as well as negative impacts. Other factors are technology, improved agronomy and related economic diversification & poverty reduction

57 It is better to do the right thing a little badly than the wrong thing extremely well. after Drucker We need a shared vision and the politics that can promote the vision of human and environmental health. The neo-liberal democratic approach and its asymmetric influence has a problematic record in that it has tended to do some wrong things extremely well. Should it shape the global process?

58 Thank you

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60 Moving the minds of consumers Angela Morelli 2008 SIWI IPC World Salzburg Water Week 2008

61 Virtual or embedded water X X X X X Moving the minds of consumers Angela Morelli 2008 SIWI IPC World Salzburg Water Week 2008

62 SIWI IPC World Salzburg Water Week 2008

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68 Figure 3. Current and future green and blue water fluxes in agriculture and other economic sectors in Africa (Alcamo et al. 2007, using LandShift and WaterGAP models)

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77 Amount of green water (left column) and blue water (right column) per grid cell in the virtual water content of crops in Africa (Vörösmarty et al. 2005, using the WBM model)