Water Management and Hydrological Research Issues in Lower Indus Basin

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1 Water Management and Hydrological Research Issues in Lower Indus Basin Azeem Shah Regional Researcher: Governance of Water Institutions IWMI Pakistan Nitasha Nair Senior Communications Officer, IWMI

2 AGENDA About IWMI Overview of Indus Basin Key Issues of Lower Indus Basin Water Availability Groundwater crises Vulnerability IWMI s ongoing Research in the Indus Basin ICIB Informing Change in Indus Basin SAWI Risks and Solutions Climate Adaptation frameworks

3 IWMI s mission To provide evidence-based solutions to sustainably manage water and land resources for food security, people s livelihoods and the environment IWMI s vision A water-secure world

4 Where we work: Tashkent Washington, DC Lahore Cairo New Delhi Kathmandu Anand Vientiane Pretoria Ouagadougou Hyderabad Addis Ababa Colombo Pretoria

5 CGIAR A global partnership that unites organizations engaged in research for a food-secure future. Our research is dedicated to reducing rural poverty, increasing food security, improving human health and nutrition, and ensuring more sustainable management of natural resources: 15 Centers Hundreds of partner organizations Over 8,000 scientists and staff four decades of research One dollar invested in CGIAR research results in about nine dollars in increased productivity in developing countries.

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7 FACTS AND FIGURES The Indus originates in China on the Tibetan Plateau and runs for 3,200 km across northern India and the length of Pakistan Indus River Basin encompasses 1.12 million square kilometres 47 % in Pakistan, 39% in India, 8% in China, and 6% in Afghanistan The Lower Indus Basin extends over plains exhibiting subtropical arid and semi-arid to temperate sub-humid climates with precipitation mm. On the whole, the high-altitude catchments comprise net contributors to the basin s water supplies and the lowland catchments constitute net consumers. 300 million people live in this basin Pakistan uses 63% of water in this basin and India uses 37%

8 FACTS AND FIGURES PAKISTAN AND INDIA Agriculture accounts for 93% of water withdrawn from the Indus Pakistan has the world s largest contiguous system of irrigated agriculture, 95% of all the irrigation in Pakistan occurs within the basin. 40% of Pakistan s labour force is engaged in agriculture Agriculture accounts for about 22% of Pakistan s GDP Agriculture accounts for 17% of India s GDP Occupies 55% percent of India s economically active population The combined Indo-Gangetic Plain constitutes the most intensely irrigated area on earth

9 PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY (M) 3 WATER AVAILABILITY (MAF) POPULATION (Million) WATER AVAILABILITY Vs POPULATION GROWTH PER CAPITA AVAILIBILITY POPULATION GROWTH Million (2015) 991 m YEAR 9

10 Photo: : David Brazier/IWMI Photo: :Tom David van Brazier/IWMI Cakenberghe/IWMI CARRY OVER CAPACITY OF DIFFERENT COUNTRIES Storage Capacity per Capita: USA Cubic Meters China Cubic Meters Pakistan Cubic Meters Carry-over Capacity: Colorado River (USA) days of river runoff Murray-Darling River (Australia) days of river runoff Aswan Dam (Egypt) days of river runoff India (Different Basins) days Pakistan - 30 days (about 10% of river flow against international good practice of 40%)

11 GROUNDWATER SITUATION IN LOWER INDUS BASIN One of the largest groundwater resources of the world (4 th after India, USA and China) Supplement over 50% of the surface water supplies Over 90% drinking water and 100% industrial water comes from groundwater Helped increase cropping intensity from 63% (1947) to 150% (2010) Source: PCRWR

12 GROUNDWATER ISSUES/CHALLENGES In the Indus Basin, the native groundwater is saline due to underlying marine geological formations A thin freshwater layer exists over this saline formation as a result of seepage from the rivers and the irrigation systems No groundwater regulatory framework. Anyone can install any number of wells of any capacity, at any depth and can pump any amount of water at any time In 1960, the No. of tubewells in Pakistan were about 20,000 which have now increased to over one million This practice has led to the groundwater depletion, both quantitatively and qualitatively It has been reported that out of 43 canal commands, the water table was declining in 26 canal commands due to rapid increase in groundwater abstraction Similar is the situation in large cities where water table is depleting at an alarming rate

13 vulnerability: 2010 About 6% of GDP Source: ADB, 2013

14 Key issues (contd.) Huge challenge of demand over supply Pakistan already reached limit of available water but will require 30% more by 2025 Major need to re-engineer water demand in agriculture (groundwater); arrest water quality decline (environment/health) Increases in extreme weather events? Increased long-term and short-term population vulnerabilities Declining overall water availability and quality relative to population size capacity to feed population declining (virtual water costs of imports?) Population: jobs, migration, urbanization Socio-economic challenge locked into decisions on physical system management and development Tough political/political-economic decisions will have to be taken

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16 BACKGROUND 2-year programme funded by DFID under the South Asia Water Governance Programme - Extented till 2018 Supporting SAWGP s outcome of increased regional cooperation in the management of Himalayan River systems to deliver sustainable, fair and inclusive development

17 Programme Components Component 1: Consolidating Knowledge (Indus Basin Knowledge Platform) - hosted and managed at IWMI HQ Component 2: Understanding decision making tools to assist complex decision making (fragile geographies upstream; mapping influence using social network analysis downstream) 2a Complex decision making in a critical geography 2b Mapping influence using Social Network Analysis Component 3: Facilitating dialogue 3a Facilitating inter-provincial dialogue 3b Facilitating basin-wide dialogue 3c Media dialogue

18 COMPONENT 1: IBKP

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22 HIGHLIGHTS Interactive online portal Encourage users to provide content (flag products to growing audience) Curating knowledge Partnerships Knowledge sharing to support stronger transboundary management One-stop Knowledge Shop Launched at World Water Week Stockholm Special Session at IRS, 14 th Sept Visit -

23 COMPONENT 2A - Complex decision making in a critical geography New GIS tool developed and used to map decisionmaking challenges within part of the upper Indus Basin and assist in identifying decision making hotspots Focus on Kabul River Basin Synergies with other work; strong support/buy-in from Afghan Govt

24 COMPONENT 2B - Mapping influence using Social Network Analysis Discerning the socio-political factors that influence decisionmaking over water management at a local level Social Network Analysis (SNA): map social relationships in two districts by combining anthropological and ethnographic methods with computer-based tools of socialnetwork analysis (SNA).

25 COMPONENT 3A - Facilitating inter-provincial dialogue Inter-provincial dialogue Seeks to improve investments decisions made by provinces Working with provinces and Indus River Systems Authority (IRSA) Detailed discussions convened through a process of dialogue during bringing together decision makers First dialogue planned in October third week 2016

26 COMPONENT 3B -Facilitating Basin-wide dialogue Need for greater collective effort across the basin; stronger dialogue, particularly around science/evidence policy linkages Working with partners (IF, ICIMOD, SAWI, others) on supporting dialogue Co-convened February meeting in Kathmandu Convened 14 th Sept meeting at IRS (knowledge sharing as entry point to/cement for cooperation) (first predialogue ) meeting Co-planning next IF meeting (early 2017)

27 COMPONENT 3C Media Dialogues Overcome limited reporting on Indus and increase in-depth analysis. Working with Third pole and SAWI Regional and National Level Dialogues Kathmandu (Regional) Feb 2016 Pakistan May 2016 India Sep 2016 Afghanistan Oct 2016 China (early 2017) Media fellowship (20+ applicants) Significant government-media interaction Innovative spin off and results Whatsapp group, Afghanistan Media Facebook group Kdkgmmh6aUpmTEhrX3RSWVk/view

28 OTHER SAWI LINKAGES Climate Adaptation Frameworks For Water Resources Planning, Development And Management In South Asia Phase 1 of this work on water resources management and climate adaptation has been implemented by IWMI under SAWI Three diagnostic papers - Review of the current knowledge, policy and institutional/financing environment Regional Conference on Risks and Solutions July 2016 Phase 2: Being planned taking into account feedback received during the regional conference

29 Photo: : David Brazier/IWMI Photo: :Tom David van Brazier/IWMI Cakenberghe/IWMI Kabul_River_flood-plain_east_of_Kabul,_Afghanistan Source - Wikipedia Commons, Phillip Hickman Muzaffarabad and Jhelum river - Azad Kashmir Photo - wikimedia commons - Badkhan Thank You Id Azeem - a.shah@cgiar.org Nitasha - n.nair@cgiar.org