MAIZE AFS: Monitoring, Evaluation, Learning and Impact Assessment. Paswel Marenya

Transcription

1 MAIZE AFS: Monitoring, Evaluation, Learning and Impact Assessment Paswel Marenya Impact Assessment Focal Point Meeting Standing Panel on Impact Assessment (SPIA) Boston Marriott Copley Place Boston MA, July 29, 2016

2 Will MAIZE deliver on SLOs and IDOs (1)? Maize is an important staple: Grown on 184 million hectares (M ha) globally (FAOSTAT, 2013) over 30% of calories in 12 countries with 310 million people 16 of 22 most maize dependent countries are in Africa Contributes over 20% of total calories in human diets in 21 lowincome countries Maize is to Africa and Central America what rice is to Asia

3 Will MAIZE deliver on SLOs and IDOs (2)? Focusing on MAIZE AFS holds much promise for positive impact SLO1: Reduced Poverty: yield enhancement, value addition, reduced postharvest losses SLO 2: Improved food and nutrition security for health: nutrient dense maize varieties available to 20 M people SLO 3: Improved natural resource systems and ecosystem services: water and nutrient use efficiency

4 How will it be done (1)? Emphasis on learning, feedback loops, pathways evaluate impact of embryonic technologies on limited scale (e.g. targeted RCTs) consumer surveys, risk analysis and willingness to pay Macro level impact tracking: Focus on global MAIZE AFS (developing world) germplasm development, variety pipelines and release Global Maize impact assessment ongoing to track: Variety releases and catalogues Attribution of varieties to CGIAR/MAIZE Economic impacts

5 How will it be done (2)? Expand the frontiers of adoption and impact assessment 1. Cross-sectional surveys (micro-econometrics and allied) 2. Panel surveys and panel econometrics (Adoption Pathways, SIMLESA) 3. Policy and institutional pre-conditions for adoption 4. Broader, economy-wide impacts of variety adoption 5. RCTs (DTMass, NuME) 6. Adoption dynamics and behavioral aspects 7. DNA fingerprinting 8. GIS, Bio Economic Modelling, Big Data Analysis

6 Where will the data come from? Developing baselines and subsequent datasets Existing data or piggyback on an ongoing surveys:. DT/STMA, DTMass, RCT on DT with insurance, Adoption Pathways Household income and expenditure surveys Living Standards Measurement Studies-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) Population and agricultural census and surveys Specialized surveys conducted by NARS and ARI partners Case studies and data collected by individual projects MAIZE and CGIAR commissioned impact evaluations.

7 How will this feed into RBM? Value for Money in MAIZE Research Agricultural research competes for resources with other investments MAIZE research will be no exception To prove it deserves the investments: MAIZE research should demonstrate impact individual farmers, their communities and national economies. From the CGIAR perspective important to demonstrate benefits and costs of delivering the products of MAIZE.

8 How will this feed into RBM (2)? Core principles of RBM 1. Strategic planning 2. Outcome focus 3. Learning and adaptation based on performance 4. Accountability and transparency 5. Defining and revising the impact pathways at CRP and FP levels

9 Who will do all this? Establishment of multi-disciplinary teams: foresight, impact assessment, gender, business, anthropology, geography, geo-spatial sciences and bioeconomic Work with ARIs and NARs scientific contribution and achievement of, complementarities and synergies with in-house capacity and needs. Work with Regional Organizations ASARECA and CARDESSA in eastern and southern Africa; regional assessments in Asia, SSA and LA in Phase-I

10 Some Examples (1) Adoption/Impact Assessment Publication Abate et al., 2015 Alene et al., 2009 Beyene and Kassie, 2015 Topic/Theme of Paper How sustained investment in agricultural research and development and policy support by the national government revolutionized maize sector in Ethiopia Adoption of modern maize increased from less than 5% of the maize area in the 1970s to about 60% in 2005, with return on (R&D) of 43% in West and Central Africa. Social capital and networks crucial in speeding up the adoption in Tanzania Key Method Review Economic Surplus Duration analysis

11 Adoption/Impact Assessment Publication Erenstein et al., 2015 de Groote et al., 2016 Fisher et al., 2015 Kassie et al., 2015 Kathage et al., in press Some Examples (2) Topic/Theme of Paper Optimal resource stewardship possible with tradeoffs. E and S Africa, Mesoamerica, North Africa, S. Asia MLN cost $180 worth of damage in Kenya, showing potential impact of tolerant maize varieties Determinants of Drought tolerant maize adoption in Eastern and southern Africa Impacts of maize varieties most prominent when farmers adopt multiple practices in East and Southern Africa In regions where returns to hybrids are small, adoption is low in Tanzania Key Method Crop and system models, econometrics etc GIS, Surveys Econometrics (cross sectional data) Econometrics (cross sectional data) Econometrics (cross sectional data)

12 Adoption/Impact Assessment Publication Micheni et al., 2016 Zeng et al., 2015 (SPIA sponsored DIIVA project) Raghu et al., 2015 Snapp and Fisher, 2015 Some Examples (3) Topic/Theme of Paper Yield increase, water use efficiency and higher revenue possible for maize farmers if conserving practices implemented in Kenya The impact of maize yield varieties on poverty positive in Ethiopia % drop of poverty headcount ratio Stress tolerant varieties impact positively on yield enhancement, per-unit cost reduction and risk reduction in marginal environments of India Education, income, market access, and availability of improved storage technologies had higher influence on dietary diversity among maize growers in Key Method Field Experiments Econometrics, Economic surplus Econometrics (cross sectional data) Semiparametric econometrics, PSM

13 Some Examples (4) Adoption/Impact Assessment Publication Mutenje et al., 2016 Tesfaye et al Topic/Theme of Paper Spouse's education, women's intra-household decision-making power, religious affiliation predicted adoption. Risk management was a motive for adopting CA for maize production in Malawi DT varieties could give a yield advantage of 5 40% over the commercial check variety across drought environments in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe Key Method Econometrics Bio economic crop modelling using big data

14 Papers 2015 Abate et al., Factors that transformed maize productivity in Ethiopia. Food Security 7, Beyene, A.D., Kassie, M., Speed of adoption of improved maize varieties in Tanzania: An application of duration analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 96, Fisher et al., Drought tolerant maize for farmer adaptation to drought in sub- Saharan Africa: Determinants of adoption in eastern and southern Africa. Climatic Change 133, Fisher, M., Carr, E.R., The influence of gendered roles and responsibilities on the adoption of technologies that mitigate drought risk: The case of droughttolerant maize seed in eastern Uganda. Global Environmental Change 35, Holden, S.T., Fisher, M., Subsidies promote use of drought tolerant maize varieties despite variable yield performance under smallholder environments in Malawi. Food Security 7, Jaleta et al., Determinants of maize stover utilization as feed, fuel and soil amendment in mixed crop-livestock systems, Ethiopia. Agricultural Systems 134,

15 2015 (cont.) Khonje et al., Analysis of Adoption and Impacts of Improved Maize Varieties in Eastern Zambia. World Development 66, Liben et al., Dry Soil Planting of Maize for Variable Onset of Rainfall in Ethiopia. Agronomy Journal 107, Raghu et al., Adoption and outcomes of hybrid maize in the marginal areas of India. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture 54, Smale et al, The Changing Structure of the Maize Seed Industry in Zambia: Prospects for Orange Maize. Agribusiness 31, Snapp, S., Fisher, M., Filling the maize basket supports crop diversity and quality of household diet in Malawi. Food Security 7, Tesfaye et al., Maize systems under climate change in sub-saharan Africa: Potential impacts on production and food security. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 7, Zeng et al., Ex post impacts of improved maize varieties on poverty in rural Ethiopia. Agricultural Economics 46,

16 Papers 2016 to date De Groote et al., Measuring rural consumers willingness to pay for quality labels using experimental auctions: the case of aflatoxin-free maize in Kenya. Agricultural Economics 47, De Groote et al., Community-survey based assessment of the geographic distribution and impact of maize lethal necrosis (MLN) disease in Kenya. Crop Protection 82, Gunaratna et al., in press. Women's and children's acceptance of biofortified quality protein maize for complementary feeding in rural Ethiopia. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture. Kathage et al., in press. Big Constraints or Small Returns? Explaining Nonadoption of Hybrid Maize in Tanzania. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. Manda et al., Adoption and Impacts of Sustainable Agricultural Practices on Maize Yields and Incomes: Evidence from Rural Zambia. Journal of Agricultural Economics 67, Manda et al., in press. Determinants of child nutritional status in the eastern province of Zambia: the role of improved maize varieties. Food Security, Micheni et al., On-Farm Experimentation On Conservation Agriculture In Maize-Legume Based Cropping Systems In Kenya: Water Use Efficiency And Economic Impacts. Experimental Agriculture 52,

17 Thank you for your interest! Photo Credits (top left to bottom right): Julia Cumes/CIMMYT, Awais Yaqub/CIMMYT, CIMMYT archives, Marcelo Ortiz/CIMMYT, David Hansen/University of Minnesota, CIMMYT archives, CIMMYT archives (maize), Ranak Martin/CIMMYT, CIMMYT archives.