Climate Change Adaptation & Disaster Risk Reduction Screening, Management Plan and subsequent Project Proposals. Danida Supported

Transcription

1 Climate Change Adaptation & Disaster Risk Reduction Screening, Management Plan and subsequent Project Proposals of Danida Supported Agricultural Sector Programme Support, Phase II and Water Supply and Sanitation Sector Programme Support, Phase II Bangladesh Inception Report January

2 Table of Contents List of Acronyms 1. Introduction Objectives of the Assignment Inception Phase Bangladesh Climate Change Outlook Context of Vulnerability The Agricultural Sector Water Supply and Sanitation Bangladesh Climate Change Strategies and Institutions Institutional Aspects on Climate Change Other Development Partners Linkage of present Danida Assignment to Climate Change Efforts in Bangladesh Methodology and Approach for Climate Change Screening and Adaptation Overall Assumptions and Considerations Timing and Process Approach and Methodology: Phase 1 - Inception Approach and Methodology: Phase 2 Climate Change Screening Approach and Methodology: Phase 3 Adaptation and Climate Management Plans Approach and Methodology: Phase 4 Pilot Projects Documentation of the Process Schedule and Deliverables List of Appendices Appendix A: Appendix B: Appendix C: Preliminary assessment of ASPS-II Components vulnerability to Climate Change Preliminary assessment of WSSPS-II Components vulnerability to Climate Change Climate Screening Matrix, ASPS-II Appendix D: Climate Screening Matrix, WSSPS-II Appendix E: Hazard Definitions Appendix F: Institutions responsible for Climate Change issues in Bangladesh Appendix G: Inception Mission Workshop List of participants Appendix H: Inception Mission - List of Meetings, ASPS-II Appendix I: Inception Mission - List of Meetings, WSSPS-II Appendix J: Noakhali Field Trip List of Meetings ASPS-II Appendix K: Noakhali Field Trip List of Meetings WSSPS-II Appendix L: List of Background Documents 2

3 List of Acronyms ASPS BCCSAP CCA CDMP CMP DSSAT DfID DMB DRR FAO GCM GoB IPCC MDG s MoEF MoF NAPA NDMC ODA PRECIS PRPS UNDP UNFCCC UP WSSPS Agricultural Sector Programme Support Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan Climate Change Adaptation Comprehensive Disaster Management Plan Climate Management Plan Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer Department for International Development Disaster Management Bureau Disaster Risk Reduction Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations General Circulation Model Government of Bangladesh Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Millennium Development Goals Ministry of Environment and Forestry Ministry of Finance National Adaptation Programme of Action National Disaster Management Committee Overseas Development Assistance Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper United Nations Development Programme United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Union Parishad Water Supply and Sanitation Programme Support 3

4 1. Introduction Bangladesh is already vulnerable to many climate change related extreme events and natural disasters. It is expected that climate change will bring changes in the characteristics of natural hazards and may gradually change the attributes of the physical system. Studies and assessments of impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation to climate change and sea level rise for Bangladesh clearly demonstrate that Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world. It is also revealed that the context of vulnerabilities and associated impacts vary based on spatial, temporal scale and the socio-economic condition of communities, resulting in the need for different adaptation measures and actions. The coastal areas of the country are prone to salinity intrusion and tropical cyclone; floodplains in the central areas are prone to flood; the north western region of the country is prone to drought; the north east of the country is prone to flash flood; whereas the hilly regions of the country are prone to erosion and landslide. Water resources and agriculture reported to be most impacted sectors due to climate. Recognition of adverse impacts of climate change on economic development, life and livelihoods of the poor and ultimately the impending millennium development goals has focused international attention on the urgent need for adaptation to deal with the unavoidable impacts of climate stimuli including variability and extreme events in Bangladesh. Considering the importance of the agricultural and water sectors to the overall development of Bangladesh, in particular their contribution to supporting life and livelihoods of the communities, together with the need for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction, Danida fielded a scoping mission in 2007 with particular focus on identification of potential interventions within agriculture, and water and sanitation. The scoping report pointed out the need for improved flood forecasting and warning services, better cross-institutional collaboration, better use of NGOs and private sector, enhanced awareness raising, information sharing, etc. Furthermore, the study underlined huge climate change and disaster risk reduction commitments and skills in various Bangladeshi institutions with some remaining challenges being effective coordination, knowledge sharing platforms, and networking. The conclusions of the mission report stressed the urgent need for follow-up and underlined huge potentials for initiating several activities both as integrals of the sector programme support and as separate interventions. 1.1 Objectives of the Assignment The immediate objectives of this assignment are to: Propose procedures for Climate Change Screening applicable for the agricultural and water and sanitation sectors and conduct Climate Change Screenings for Agricultural Sector Programme Support, Phase II (ASPS-II) and Water Supply and Sanitation Programme Support (WSSPS-II); Prepare Climate Change & Disaster Risk Reduction Management Plans for ASPS-II and WSSPS-II, including short term and long term action plans; 4

5 Prepare proposals for immediate short term interventions. These objectives will be obtained through a process oriented approach involving close interaction with different stakeholder groups. The climate screening processes of ASPS-II and WSSPS-II will be carried out by two different teams of international and local consultants. However, a close coordination will take place between the two teams and many activities will be implemented jointly. 1.2 Inception Phase A Pre-Inception (kick-off) Mission was implemented in August The aim of this mission was to establish the first contacts with key stakeholders as well as to mobilize and initiate the screening process. The following key activities were implemented: Meetings with key development partners (including the European Union, The Dutch Embassy, DfID, UNDP and FAO) Meetings with Government of Bangladesh (GoB) institutions Meeting with Action Aid Meeting with Climate Cell / Comprehensive Disaster Management Plan (CDMP) Programme Meetings with ASPS-II and WSSPS-II Programme staff Consultation with members of the Planning Commission Working Group 2 days field visit to Patuakhali Collection of additional data and information The Inception Mission was launched during October The aim of this mission was to present, discuss and test a methodology outline for the climate screening process as well as to carry out meetings and consultations with key stakeholders at central and local levels. The following key activities were implemented: Stakeholder Workshop in Dhaka with presentation of methodology outline and approach ASPS and WSSPS Workshops with testing of climate screening matrix and tools Meetings and consultations with key stakeholders (including development partners, GoB institutions, Climate Cell) Meetings with ASPS-II and WSSPS-II Programme staff Meeting with Working Group in Planning Commission Field visit to Noakhali Collection of additional data and information 5

6 Detailed mission programmes are included in Appendix H-K. A webpage for the assignment ( has been established. The webpage will facilitate the process and provide direct access to documents, information, reports, presentations, photo galleries, climate screening tools, etc. obtained and produced through the implementation of the assignment. It will also provide a discussion forum for stakeholders interested in the subject. 6

7 2. Bangladesh Climate Change Outlook The overall impacts of climate change on Bangladesh are expected to be significant. It is estimated that climate change could affect more than 70 million people due to the countries geographic location, low elevation, high population density, poor infrastructure, high levels of poverty and high dependency on natural resources 1. Ultimately adverse impacts have the potential to undermine poverty reduction efforts and could compromise the achievement of the Millennium Development goals (MDGs), such as the eradication of poverty and hunger by Furthermore, the OECD and World Bank estimated that 40% of the Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) to Bangladesh may be climate sensitive or at risk. In order to develop future climate change scenarios both General Circulation Model (GCM) and Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) have been run for Bangladesh. The GCM is a global scale model whereas PRECIS is a regional scale model. Both models outputs indicate a steady increase in temperatures along with increased trend of summer monsoon precipitation with higher level of inter-seasonal variability. The PREICS model result shows that temperature (maximum and minimum) and rainfall vary over space and time. Values for some months are much higher than the season or annual average. Annual average of maximum temperature shows an increasing trend but shows that increase over time will decline while minimum temperature shows a gradual increase over time. Projections shows that rainfall in monsoon and post-monsoon seasons will increase while rainfall in the dry season will remain closer to historical amounts. Rainfall in pre-monsoon shows erratic nature. 2.1 Context of Vulnerability The types and contexts of vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise for Bangladesh vary across the country. The contexts may be characterised by geographical region with predominant ecosystems. A summary of the characteristics of the climate related vulnerability context by major geographical region and ecosystems are provided in Table 2.1 below. Table 2.1: Summary of Vulnerability Context Types of Geographical Areas with Dominant Ecosystems Floodplain (freshwater aquatic ecosystem, fisheries, Transplanted Aman) Drought Prone (dryness, moisture stressed condition) Climate Change Vulnerability Context and Characteristics Changes in Flooding Characteristics Coverage of inundated area in monsoon season will increase (more flood vulnerable area) Changes in depth and duration of inundation (depth of water will be higher and period of flooding will be longer) Changes in recession period of flood water (water logging) Changes in flood frequency (more frequent and intense flooding) Changes in Drought Characteristics Changes in drought intensity (greater area under severe drought) Changes of extent of drought prone area (expansion of area) Changes in timing of drought (erratic behaviour of rainfall and temperature) 1 UN Human Development Report 2007/08 7

8 Types of Geographical Areas with Dominant Ecosystems Coastal Zone Haor Basin (tectonically depressed area) Hilly Region Climate Change Vulnerability Context and Characteristics Changes in Coastal Characteristics Expansion of salinized areas Increase in salinity intensity Increase drainage congestion and coastal flooding Cyclone and storm surges Changes in Haor Basin Characteristics Changes in timing of flash flood Changes in recession period Changes in distribution of rainfall and intensity Changes in erosion of top soil Increase possibility of landslide Source: National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA),2005 The above mentioned vulnerability contexts of climate change are likely to affect agriculture sectors including crops, livestock and fisheries; freshwater for drinking and agricultural purpose; and rural infrastructure including water supply and sanitation, and rural roads. Table 2.2 below illustrates level of impacts of climate change on different sectors, as this was presented in the NAPA (some of these relations could be discussed, e.g. it could be argued that erosion would lead to loss of species diversity). Table 2.2. Level of Impacts of Climate Change on Different Sectors Physical Vulnerability Context Extreme Temperature Sea Level Rise Drought Flood Cyclone and River Flood Flash Flood Storm Surges Coastal Inundation Salinity Intrusion Erosion and Accretion Sectoral Vulnerability Context Crop Agriculture Fisheries Livestock Infrastructure Industries Biodiversity Health Human Settlement Energy Source: NAPA (2005) 8

9 2.2 The Agricultural Sector Below is presented some overall considerations on how the agricultural sector is affected by climate change. Further details are provided in Appendix A. Crop Agriculture, Fisheries and Livestock The agricultural production of Bangladesh is influenced by seasonal characteristics and different variables of climate such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, day-length etc. It is also often constrained by different disasters such as floods, droughts, soil and water salinity, cyclone and storm surges. Several studies indicated that climate is changing and becoming more unpredictable. There is a strong possibility that moisture content of the topsoil in the north-western region would decrease substantially resulting from a decrease in winter precipitation and higher evapo-transpiration. Degradation of productive land including quality and physical loss are key concerns for coastal agriculture due to salinity intrusion and sea level rise. It is estimated that approximately 13% more area (469,000 ha) will be inundated during the monsoon season based on 62 cm sea level rise in addition to the existing inundated area. Drainage congestion and water logging is very likely in the coastal regions as a result of the combined effects of higher sea water levels, subsidence, sedimentation of estuary branches, higher riverbed levels and reduced sedimentation in floodprotected areas. The contribution of agriculture to GDP now accounts for about 20 percent, but over 60 percent of the population depend on agriculture directly or indirectly for their livelihoods. The higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns coupled with increased flooding, rising salinity in the coastal belt, droughts in the northwest and southwest, and drainage congestion are likely to reduce crop yields and crop production. The Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT) model result shows that yield reductions will vary by types of crops and their growing season. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that, by 2050, rice production in Bangladesh could decline by 8 percent and wheat by 32 percent (further details of reduction of crop yields under different climate change scenarios are given in Appendix A). The ultimate implication of decreased food production will be less availability of food at household level that may lead to increased malnutrition. There is limited quantitative assessment of impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture but it is anticipated that aquaculture will be affected adversely due to increased flooding, extremes of tidal wave fluctuations and lack of availability of water in the dry season, while production may increase in open water fisheries as a result of monsoon flooding. Therefore, total production of freshwater fishes may remain same. It is also expected that the composition of coastal fisheries may change overtime as a result of coastal inundation and salinity intrusion. It is also anticipated that livestock will face fodder crisis in the coastal regions and heat related stress in the north-west region of the country. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on livestock is limited. However, it is suggested that extreme temperature and climate change related natural disasters would affect livestock significantly. High temperature would affects livestock in a number of ways: causes great discomfort as in the case of humans; decreases feed intake and alters nutrient metabolism leading to high loss of energy; and thirdly the combined effects of discomfort and nutrient metabolism reduces their 9

10 productivity, resulting in financial loss for the farmers. Apart from extreme temperature, natural disasters such as cyclone and tidal surge as mentioned above, cause immense loss and sufferings to livestock through destruction of forage crops as well as housing. Deaths of livestock due to cyclone and storm surge events are also huge in the coastal area. Rural Roads It is likely that water management infrastructure and rural roads will face erosion problems due to sea level rise and wave surges, as well as from intense rainfall in short duration. It is estimated that about 25 coastal polders in the southwest region may experience severe drainage congestion based on a 62 cm sea level rise and 13 polders embankment will be overtopped due to increased water level in the peripheral rivers. The coastal areas also experience immense damage to rural roads and other infrastructure due to cyclone and storm surges which is expected to be more frequent and intense. 2.3 Water Supply and Sanitation The contexts of vulnerability of water and sanitation to climate change stimuli include variability and extremes. It is likely that the gradual change phenomenon such as temperature rise and erratic behaviour of rainfall will lead to increased water demand and drought while sea level rise and salinity intrusion will deteriorate water quality in the coastal region. Climate change related extreme events, particularly cyclone and storm surge, will damage water supply and sanitation infrastructure especially in the coastal regions. Increases in summer temperature will increase water demand in the urban area for drinking and bathing as well as demand for industrial water for cooling systems. The competition of demand may aggravate the current conflict between domestic and industrial water supplies in the urban areas. The situation will be different in the rural areas where availability and quality of rivers and artesian wells and pond water in the dry season will deteriorate. Shortages of safe drinking water are likely to become more pronounced, especially in the coastal belt and drought-prone areas in the north-west of the country. It is also likely that the saline water boundary will be pushed further inland and vast areas will face severe water crisis in the future. People now having access to fresh water will no longer enjoy this service. Due to cyclone and storm surge, huge volumes of saline water will come onto the land area and contaminate freshwater ponds. These will severely damage the existing drinking water sources. For instance ponds for the pond sand filters and dug wells may be flooded with saline water. It may also contaminate hand tube wells and other sources. It is likely that unavailability and low quality will accentuate the prevailing drinking water crisis in the dry season. This will impose hardship on women and children, who are responsible for collecting drinking water for their families. Increasingly saline drinking water may also result in health hazards, especially for pregnant women and it appears that climate change is likely to adversely affect women more than men. In Appendix B, more details are provided on how the water and sanitation sector is affected by climate change. 10

11 2.4 Bangladesh Climate Change Strategies and Institutions The Government of Bangladesh (GoB) has recently reconfirmed its strong commitment to combat the challenges from climate change in the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (2008). Furthermore, the GoB has announced that the national budget for 2009 will include a specific budget line for funding of climate-related projects and that a significant amount of funding will be allocated to this budget line. This is the first time that the GoB will include a separate budget line for funding of projects on climate. Strategic documents Two strategic documents, recently prepared by the GoB, are expected to guide the policies and actions related to climate change within Bangladesh during the next 3-5 years period: The Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) and the National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan As a response to the need for a coordinated national framework to combat the challenges posed by climate change, the GoB launched in September 2008 the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP). With a view to the uncertainty about timing and magnitude of the likely impacts of climate change, the BCCSAP is designed as a living document which anticipates periodical revision, as required. The BCCSAP was developed through a participatory process involving all relevant ministries and agencies, civil society, research organisations and the business community. The BCCSAP builds on the National Programme of Adaptation (NAPA), published in The Climate Change Action Plan is a 10-year programme ( ) which aims to build capacity and resilience of the country to meet the challenges of climate change. The needs of the poor and vulnerable, including women and children, are to be mainstreamed in all activities under the Action Plan. In the first five year period ( ), the programme will comprise six pillars of which five are related to impact management and one is related to mitigation through low carbon development. The pillars are: a) Food security, social protection and health, b) Comprehensive disaster management, c) Infrastructure, d) Research and knowledge management, e) Mitigation and low carbon development and f) Capacity building and institutional strengthening. Within the six pillars a total of 37 programmes are listed in the Climate Change Action Plan. Programmes funded under the Action Plan will be implemented by line ministries and agencies, with participation, as appropriate, of other stakeholder groups, including civil society, professional and research bodies and the private sector. Cost-effective priority programmes for immediate implementation and others to be started in the next 5 years are to be identified, with special attention on the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable in society, the need to create an enabling environment to promote climate resilient investment, and on ensuring that knowledge, data and experience on adaptation is shared with other countries in the region. National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction The National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction is the second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) prepared by the Government of Bangladesh. The Paper is not finalized and approved yet; only drafts for consultations have been released so far. 11

12 The Paper is prepared as a sequel to the first PRSP and is the single national document embodying the strategies and policies for achieving accelerated growth and poverty reduction in the period It is based on the recent development experience manifested in the emerging strengths as well as vulnerabilities of the country. It is committed to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG s) focusing on specific targets for reducing poverty, hunger, diseases, illiteracy, environmental degradation and discrimination against women by It is expected that the Paper will also include considerations on the climate change challenges facing Bangladesh during the period. 2.5 Institutional Aspects on Climate Change The institutional setting on climate change within the GoB is rather complex and involves a range of institutions which may not have sufficient capacity or power to fulfil their mandate in the future. This calls for a carefully rethinking on how to structure and organize climate change responsibilities within the GoB. Institutions responsible for climate change The Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) is the focal point for climate change at national and international level. The GoB is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. The MoEF as the focal point set up a National Climate Committee in 1994 for policy guidance and to oversee the implementation of obligations under the UNFCCC process. MoEF formulated the BCCSAP (2008) as a living document designed to address climate change. MoEF also prepared the NAPA (2005) where immediate and urgent needs for adaptation were identified. After the Bali Conference (COP 13), the GoB formed the National Steering Committee on Climate Change. This Committee is headed by the Chief Adviser and comprises secretaries of all relevant ministries and civil society organizations. The Committee is tasked with developing and overseeing implementation of the BCCSAP and five technical working groups have been constituted (on adaptation, mitigation, technology transfer, financing and public awareness). The National Disaster Management Council (NDMC), headed by the Chief Adviser/Prime Minister, is the highest-level forum in Bangladesh for formulation and review of disaster management policies. An Inter-Ministerial Disaster Management Coordination Committee is in charge of implementing disaster management policies and decisions by the NDMC. The Ministry of Food and Disaster Management is the focal ministry for disaster management. Its Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) is the apex organisation responsible for coordinating national disaster management interventions across all agencies. The DMB oversees and coordinates all activities related to disaster management at national and local levels in the country. The Meteorological Department under the Ministry of Defence, and the Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Centre of Bangladesh Water Development Board, under the Ministry of Water Resources, are two of the key institutions in this field. 12

13 In addition to this, there are a number of other ministries and institutions responsible for sectors that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including the Local Government Engineering Department, the Department of Public Health Engineering; the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries and the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare. Institutional challenges The increasing attention on climate change issues, and the related sharply increasing trend in national and international funding possibilities, is creating a number of challenges to the institutional set-up and arrangements on climate change within the GoB. These institutional challenges include two central aspects of importance for this present assignment: The future anchoring of climate change within the GoB MoEF is currently holding the position as the GoB focal point for climate change. Due to the crosscutting nature of climate change, as well as the increasing policy focus and funding allocated to the area, various governmental institutions and development partners are suggesting however that a more powerful and politically influential GoB institution will become joint focal point with MoEF for climate change in the country, at least in the short-term. It is being suggested from various sides that the Ministry of Finance (MoF), for instance through the Planning Commission, could create an appropriate central function in relation to climate change in Bangladesh. It is expected that this could support a strengthening of policy-making, direction-setting and strategic leadership of climate change activities in Bangladesh. This also relates to the management of the sharply increasing funding in-flow to the climate change area in the country. Suggestions are therefore that MoF would become responsible for policy issues and funding related to climate change while MoEF would still be the focal point for coordination of the technical aspects of climate change. Within both institutions there appear to be need for capacity building on how to deal with climate change. Mainstreaming of Climate Change within Ministries Mainstreaming of climate change into the GoB will to a large extent depend on the organisation and focus on climate change within the individual ministries. Each ministry will need to establish procedures and structures that will allow for formulating and achievement of climate change goals for their respective organisations, including considerations on how capacities on climate change will be developed and maintained within their institution. Recently, focal points for climate change have been appointed within a number of ministries. This must be considered a step forward although it still has to be seen how the appointed focal points will be able to contribute to a mainstreaming of climate change within their respective institutions. 2.6 Other Development Partners It is apparent that climate change is receiving greater focus on development agencies agendas and that interest in this subject and on how to deal with it and mainstream and integrate it into ongoing and planned development activities is receiving increasing amounts of attention. The increasing 13

14 focus on climate change among development partners obviously also leads to increases in the amount of funding allocated to the climate area. In September 2008, DfID launched a 75 million grant-funded Multi Trust Fund Programme on climate change, agreed upon between development partners in Bangladesh and the GoB. Through the establishment of this fund it is intended to ensure improved coordination of donor-funded climate change activities in the future and that implemented activities will be fully in line with the priorities and goals established by the GoB. It is expected that the fund will become operational during The CDMP, implemented under the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, is the main donorfunded disaster management programme in Bangladesh, working through a strategic institutional and programming approach, and designed to optimise the reduction of long-term risk and to strengthen the operational institutional capacities for responding to emergencies and disaster situations from climate events. CDMP is a multi-donor programme, funded mainly by DfID, the European Union and UNDP. The first phase of CDMP is being implemented from and a second phase to be implemented during is currently under design. While the first CDMP phase focussed mainly on disaster management and disaster risk reduction, it is expected that the second phase of the programme will provide more focus on integrating disaster risk reduction with climate change adaptation. The Climate Change Cell, with the MoEF, has been established and supported through CDMP. The Asian Development Bank and World Bank are providing loans and grants to a number of climate related activities in Bangladesh, mainly related to disaster management and disaster reduction and recovery. USAID is supporting a number of climate change activities in Bangladesh, from mitigation to adaptation, some of them through their environmental programme. Over the next five years USAID will assist the GoB to implement the BCCSAP by putting in place a portfolio of projects by In addition to this, a number of climate change related projects are being implemented at community level through governmental departments and NGO s all over Bangladesh, many of these with particular focus on community-based risk management and adaptation. Although there is no previous experience from other development partners in Bangladesh on climate change screenings of sector programmes, some donors, including DfID and the Dutch Embassy, have carried out screening exercises at the project level. The experiences from these processes have been useful input for the consultancy team in developing screening tools for the sector programmes. 2.7 Linkage of present Danida Assignment to Climate Change Efforts in Bangladesh This present Danida assignment is linked to current GoB climate change strategies and institutional development aspects in a number of important ways: 14

15 Linkage to Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan. The present assignment has obvious direct linkages to at least four of the six pillars outlined in the Action Plan: a) Food security, social protection and health; c) Infrastructure; d) Research and knowledge management and; f) Capacity building and institutional strengthening. During the process of formulating pilot projects, the consultancy team will look carefully into the programmes proposed in the Action Plan to ensure alignment with these. The National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction , is not yet finalized, but when the strategy is officially launched, the consultancy team will look carefully into the relevant elements of this paper, in particular what concerns climate change. It can be noted that draft versions of this paper already highlights focus on vulnerability issues, which is fully in line with the focus on this present assignment. Institutional anchoring. A Working Group has been established within the Agriculture, Water Resources and Rural Institution Division of the Planning Commission to follow the implementation of this assignment, to provide comments and feed-back and to facilitate inter-agency coordination. The establishing of this Working Group must be considered an achievement in itself and could possibly pave the way for further involvement of the Planning Commission with climate change activities in the country. During the pre-inception and inception mission consultations have been held with members of the Planning Commission Working Group. The group members have during these consultations expressed a strong willingness to be part of this exercise. It is therefore expected that the Working Group will follow and contribute to the implementation of the assignment. Mainstreaming within ministries. Through the process oriented and participatory hands-on approach applied by this assignment a number of staff members within the relevant line ministries covered by the ASPS-II and WSSPS-II will be directly involved in the implementation of the assignment. The intention is that their participation will contribute to development of climate change capacity within the institutions involved. The consultancy team is also working on identifying and involving climate change focal points within the relevant ministries in the process to ensure that capacities and products developed will be anchored to the extent possible within the institutions. Linking of the macro level with the meso and micro level. While most initiatives on disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Bangladesh are being implemented directly at the community level, less attention seems to have been paid to strengthening of linkages between the central planning level and the communities with regards to common assessments of climate impact and planning of related adaptations. This assignment has particular focus on these institutional processes which require active participation and interaction by different stakeholder levels. In this way, the assignment can be considered complementary to most other interventions on climate change in Bangladesh and may as such provide useful experience and learning also for other development partners. 15

16 Donor coordination/harmonization/alignment. A number of consultations and interactions have taken place already with other development partners to ensure that their views and possible inputs are considered for the work carried out by the consultancy team. During the preparation stage for this assignment DfID was involved in the discussions of the ToR and has also provided a specific technical expert input during the inception phase. In addition, development partners were invited to provide comments to the Draft Inception Report (distributed in November 2008) and the comments received have been considered by the consultancy team for preparation of the Final Inception Report. It is important to emphasize that although the Danish Sector Programmes on agriculture and water supply and sanitation will be used as cases during this exercise, the intention is that the learning from the assignment on climate screening methodology and processes, including institutional development processes, should be useful and applicable for other development partners as well. 16

17 3. Methodology and Approach for Climate Change Screening and Adaptation This Section outlines the approach and methodology as proposed, discussed, and agreed in detail during the Inception Visit in October The chapter is divided into first a description of the overall and general approach and methodological considerations, followed by a presentation of the specific approach and methodology proposed for each phase. 3.1 Overall Assumptions and Considerations The approach and methodology has been developed according to the following overall assumptions and considerations: Climate change is already taking place. The impact from climate change is already felt within key economic sectors in Bangladesh, including the water and agricultural sectors. Climate change will affect the long-run impact of development assistance. ASPS-II and WSSPS-II component activities are or will be affected by climate changes. Local stakeholder involvement is critical. Knowledge and memory of local people is important to build on in the process of screening and assessing climate change impact and possible adaptation options within local communities. The approach and methodology should be systematic as well as pragmatic. The methods to be applied for the climate screening and adaptation analysis should, on the one hand, be simple enough to be used and understood at the community level but at the same time, be rigorous enough to be used as a basis for decision making. The process is as important as the results. This assignment presents the first attempt to undertake a comprehensive climate screening process at sector programme level in Bangladesh. It is also Danida s first experience with detailed sector programme screenings. The assignment will therefore also serve as a learning process for all partners involved. The products and processes to be developed should aim at getting wider application than for Danida Programming only. Although the outset for the assignment is climate change screening, climate management plans, and pilot projects on adaptation related in particular to the ASPS-II and WSSPS-II component activities, it is the intention to make them more generally applicable to the water and agricultural sectors as a whole. One mechanism to ensure this is to actively involve local stakeholders during the whole process and ensure that the formulated plans and project proposals will be in line with national policy goals and strategies for the two sectors. 3.2 Timing and Process The interventions of this assignment have been divided into four phases: 1. Phase 1 (Inception Phase), 2. Phase 2 (Climate Screening Phase), 3. Phase 3 (Climate Management Planning and Adaptation Phase) and 17

18 4. Phase 4 (Pilot Project Phase). There will however be some overlapping between the phases. For instance, during the screening phase (Phase 2), preliminary adaptation options will be identified and discussed. Likewise, the pilot project formulation (Phase 4) will be a process that will be initiated already under the screening exercise in Phase 2. In addition to this, there will be a cross-cutting component on information and documentation of the processes and products. Each phase will produce a specific output: Phase 1 (Inception Report), Phase 2 (Climate Screening Reports), Phase 3 (Climate Management Plans) and Phase 4 (Pilot Projects, based on adaptation options). In addition, information and documentation material will be produced. A Final Mission Report will be prepared towards the end of the assignment. Figure 3.1 below illustrates the overall intervention profile of this assignment. Figure 3.1. Intervention Profile of the assignment A more detailed approach and methodology for each of the four phases is presented below. 18

19 3.3 Approach and Methodology: Phase 1 - Inception Phase 1 is the inception phase where the approach and methodology is developed together with a strategic assessment of institutional arrangements and a climate change assessment of the water and agricultural sectors. Strategic Institutional Assessment It will be important to ensure that this exercise will align and link, to the extent possible, to key national strategies and policies on climate change and not work in parallel to other ongoing activities within the area. The recently launched Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan will be a key reference document together with the National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction , the second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper for Bangladesh, which is expected to be approved shortly. It must also be ensured that the institutional arrangements for this assignment will be in line with recommendations and planning for the future institutional set-up of climate change within the GoB. Two particular aspects will need to be considered with regards to the involvement of national institutions: 1) Institutional anchoring and decision-making. In order to ensure application and sustainability of the processes and products to be developed, it is crucial that the assignment will be anchored within a governmental institution with a key role in policy-making and strategic decision-making and with sufficient power and authority to enforce its decisions towards other institutions. 2) Participation and sustainability. The sustainability of the products and processes developed through the implementation will be strongly correlated with the degree of systematic and active involvement of the key stakeholders in the implementation, at central level as well as at local levels. Participation at all levels is crucial for creating ownership. Strong efforts have been made by the Embassy of Denmark to ensure an appropriate institutional anchoring of the assignment within the Planning Commission, where a Working Group has been established to provide a coordination function in relation to this assignment as well as to facilitate decision-making processes within governmental institutions. The decision to anchor this assignment within the Planning Commission is in line with recommendations from recent assessments on the most appropriate institutional set-up of climate change matters in Bangladesh. A number of ministries, including line ministries for ASPS-II and WSSPS-II, are in the process of appointing climate change focal points within their respective institutions. It is intended to involve the appointed focal points within the line ministries covered by ASPS-II and WSSPS-II into the implementation of this assignment in order to strengthen the process of mainstreaming climate change into these institutions. Climate Change Assessment of the Water and Agricultural Sector Programmes This includes a desk review of climate change scenarios for Bangladesh with a view to assessing climate vulnerability and impacts on ASPS-II and WSSPS-II component activities. The assessment has been based on existing studies and data combined with future climate trend scenarios. The 19

20 assessment is presented in Chapter 1 of this Inception Report, and further details are provided in Appendix A and Appendix B. Development of Approach and Methodology The above assessments and considerations on institutional arrangements and climate changes constitute important pillars for further developing and implementing the approach and methodology for the assignment. In specific, the development of climate screening tools and planning of the process of carrying out the screening constituted a significant part of the Inception Visit. Furthermore, the methodology and process of preparing Climate Management Plans for ASPS-II and WSSPS-II were discussed during the Inception Visit. The approach and methodology for each of the subsequent phases are presented in the sections below. 3.4 Approach and Methodology: Phase 2 Climate Change Screening The definition of climate change screening, which has been applied to this exercise, is: Climate change screening is a systematic process of examining activities, outputs and programmes in order to identify their vulnerability to climate change, including assessment of the extent to which vulnerability is being or could be addressed. Other definitions being applied during this assignment can be found in Appendix E. Overall, the approach of the climate screening is one of asking and not at least getting valid answers to the following very basic - yet crucial - questions: Are programme activities exposed (i.e. vulnerable) to climate change, i.e. are they at risk, at present and/or in future? If yes, which risks, where, and why/how? How serious are the risks? (in terms of severity and frequency, but also in terms of extent/coverage) Are the risks being dealt with today? How? What could be improved? (Internally/externally) Are there any best practices to be shared? For policy support and reform activities, which differ slightly from physical and capacity development activities of the two sector programmes, the equivalent questions would be: Are present sector and sub-sector policies aligned to national climate change strategies and policies? Are present and planned policy reform activities within the programmes facilitating such an alignment? What could be done to further such alignment? What could be done to contribute to the wider integration, coherence and coordination of ongoing and planned climate change activities (e.g. anchoring) across sectors? 20

21 The screening that is the asking and answering of those questions above - would gradually lead into the formulation of adaptation options and suggestions for climate management plans (i.e. to be developed during Phase 3). The screening will take place at three levels: Figure3.2: Screening Levels and Mode of Work The screening exercise will be focused around multi-criteria screening matrices. The development of those matrices has been an ongoing and inclusive process. A Zero Draft Screening Matrix was prepared by the consultants prior to the Inception Visit, and it was tested during the field trip to Noakhali, fine tuned and revised, and then tested further during small and informal workshops with WSSPS-II and ASPS-II implementing staff. The final screening matrices (provided in Appendix C and Appendix D) will be introduced and explored during two training workshops for the implementing partners in early November The training workshops will focus on the purpose, logic, and process of climate screening, and also go through practical examples from activities of each of the major projects or components of the two sector programmes. It will also be discussed how multiple activities or outputs can be grouped or clustered, in order to simplify and avoid overlapping or unnecessary repetitions. Following the training workshop, the participants will go back and fill out the matrices. Each implementing partner at central level has appointed key staff who will be participating in the training workshop and subsequently be responsible for the screening exercise at component/project level. Meanwhile, the consultants will travel of field trips to the North West and Coastal Belt to meet with implementing partners and beneficiaries at the meso and micro levels of implementation, and carry out a joint screening through participatory assessments. This local level screening will not screen all activities, but will be based on a random selection of past, ongoing and planned activities. After the field trips, the consultants will meet again with the implementing partners at central level, going through their analyses and screening. It could be either in the form of follow-up workshops or one-on-one meetings. The consolidated screening matrices will be analysed and presented in Screening Reports, where a number of activities will be selected for further analysis. The Screening Reports will be submitted to major stakeholders and all implementing partners for comments. 21

22 The screening process is illustrated in Figure 3.3 below. Figure 3.3: The Screening Process More specifically, the climate screening process is designed so as to include nine steps: 1. Identifying categories of risks relevant to the screening of the sector programmes 2. Identifying different risk zones (agro-ecological) 3. Defining screening criteria and rating (frequency & severity) 4. Designing screening matrix 5. Clustering and relating outputs and activities to relevant risk categories and zones 6. Assessing risks according to criteria 7. Filling out screening matrix 8. Review of screening matrix 9. Identification of most relevant activities for further studies Steps 1 to 4 (basically developing approach, methods, and tools) were undertaken during the Inception Visit and are presented in this Inception Report, whereas steps 5 to 9 constitute the screening exercise itself, and those steps are going to be carried out during Phase 2 (see below). In more details, the above steps of the screening exercise can be described as: 1. Identifying categories of climate risks relevant to the screening of the sector programmes Based on a review of relevant literature (see list of documents attached) risk identification diagrams (see the two diagrams overleaf) were developed with regards to both the agricultural and the water and sanitation sector. 22

23 The aim of the diagrams is to illustrate how the processes through which observed and predicted changes in weather and environment (climate risks ), which are assumed to be the result of climate changes, will impact on the lives and livelihoods of the target groups of ASPS-II and WSSPS-II. Through this cause-effect analysis, the impacts of the climate changes on the two sectors and also more aggregated, on society as a whole, are revealed. The WSSPS-II risk identification diagram was briefly presented at the Stakeholder Inception Workshop in early October Based on comments received, it was revised, and a diagram was also produced for ASPS-II. The diagrams were thereafter discussed in detail and at length with all visited stakeholders and implementing partners, so that the final version of the diagrams are considered to be very acceptable by all stakeholders. Moreover, the diagrams were used as tools to help identify the climate change risks/issues relevant in the Bangladesh context within the WSSPS-II & ASPS-II and thereafter, used to develop a non-exclusive/non-exhaustive list of risks. 2. Identifying different risk zones (agro-ecological) As described in Section 2.1 it is important to consider the variabilities in vulnerability from a spatial perspective. It was decided to divide the country into risk zones roughly based on predetermined types of geographical areas with dominant ecosystem types. The zones have been classified as follows: a. Floodplain b. Low Water Table Area (similar to Drought Prone) c. Coastal Zone d. Haor Basin (tectonically depressed area) e. Chittagong Hill Tracts/Hilly f. Others 23

24 CLIMATE CHANGE in the Water Supply and Sanitation Sector Figure 3.4 Risk Identification Diagram - Water Supply and Sanitation Sector PRIMARY INDICATORS of CLIMATE CHANGES SECONDARY INDICATORS of CLIMATE CHANGES OUTCOMES CONSEQUENCE for WSS IMPACT Rise in temperatures Increase in Evaporation Melting mountain snow Increase in water demand Ground water stress Economic & human losses Increasing sea levels More unpredictable weather patterns Less rain in dry season and in dry areas More frequent cyclones & storm surges More rain in monsoon and in coastal areas Drought (too little rain or river flow) Floodings, Logging & Inundation (increased volume of water bodies/ sea waves / higher sea level) Saline intrusion Water Source Contamination Arsenic Contamination Diseases (water & vector born) Damage to WSS infrastructure (hardware) Afford-- ability Degraded environment/ water resources (quantity & quality) Deteriorated Health 24

25 Figure 3.5 Risk Identification Diagram - Agricultural Sector 25

26 3. Defining screening criteria and rating By defining the degree (or level) of risk it will be possible to use the output of the climate screening exercise to rank and highlight those activities/outputs that are most vulnerable to climate change and thus most in need of identifying and implementing adaptation options. In order to determine the relative vulnerability of the ASPS-II and WSSPS-II to specific climate change factors, a number of criteria which are thought to be capable of encompassing the degree or level of risk posed by climate change, have been defined. The first step in this process is to identify the impact of the climate change risks on livelihoods (ASPS-II) and WSS service delivery (WSSPS-II). Based on these impacts, the related socio-economic impacts for the ASPS-II and WSSPS-II target groups can be analyzed. These impact relations are illustrated in, respectively, Figure 3.4 and Figure 3.5 above. Based on judgment made through interactive workshops (consultants and programme staff) and following work done by each of the programmes component/projects, the severity and frequency of each of the climate risks identified as being applicable to specific outputs / activities will be assigned rankings of either High =4, Moderate =3, Low=2 or None = 1 which can then be multiplied together in order to obtain a total weighted risk score. Severity refers to the degree of current / future potential socio-economic impact (ASPS-II) / impact on the delivery of WSS services (WSSPS-II) of the climate change risk event once it occurs. Severity is a function of how climate risk parameters influence on livelihoods (ASPS-II) / service delivery (WSSPS-II) and how this is impacting / will impact on target area / group (i.e. size and severity of area affected; number and severity of beneficiaries affected, etc.). Types of (socio-economic) impact factors to be considered will include: Food security and nutrition, migration, income and employment, environment and health (for ASPS-II) and economic and human losses, degraded/depleted water resources, and health (for WSSPS-II). Frequency has also been categorized under 4 categories depending on occurrence of the event. Less Frequent, means possibility of occurrence once in every 10 to 20 years; Moderately Frequent, means possibility of occurrence once in every 5-10 year; Frequent, means possibility of occurrence once in every 2-5 years; More Frequent, means possibility of occurrence in once or more in every year. The total weighted score for each activity would then be ranked as follows: Risk scores of between 1 and 2 are considered as having No or Low risk Risk scores of between 3 and 6 are considered as having Moderate risk Risk scores of 8 or above are considered as having High risk The risk rating, based on the assessments of severity and frequency, is illustrated in Figure 3.6 below. 26

27 Figure 3.6 Climate Change Risk Severity and Frequency Finally, the criteria would include assessments of present as well as foreseen future risks. 4. Designing screening matrix The aim has been to develop a tool which is relatively simple and easy to use, and yet at the same time is able to provide a framework that is fundamentally sound and robust in order to allow it to be scaled up and used across both the Water and Agricultural sectors. Strong emphasis has accordingly been placed on the process of designing the matrices. A fundamental cornerstone of the design process was the constant interaction with relevant stakeholders and to this extent much discussion and revision encompassing stakeholders viewpoints as well as piloting of the matrices took place. 5. Clustering and relating outputs and activities to relevant risk categories and zones During the course of the stakeholder consultations and the development of the screening matrix, it became increasingly clear that there is much overlap and commonality between many of the activities within components as well as between components. In order to avoid duplication, it was decided that where possible similar activities should be clustered or grouped together prior to carrying out the actual screening. In essence, this process of clustering can be considered as a data cleaning exercise which has the aim of minimizing the need to directly screen each and every individual activity or output within the entire ASPS-II and WSSPS-II. The clustering will be undertaken during the climate screening training workshop. 6. Assessing risks according to criteria For each risk identified as being relevant for an activity or output, a subjective assessment of each of the screening criteria listed in the matrix will be made and a level/ degree/weight/ranking/value will be assigned as appropriate. This assessment will be undertaken as by the staff of the 27