Total Factor Productivity: Using the Farm Business Survey. OECD Network for Farm Level Analysis

Transcription

1 Total Factor Productivity: Using the Farm Business Survey OECD Network for Farm Level Analysis Presented by: Katherine Merrett Date: 12 th November 2013

2 Overview Background UK TFP Sector level TFP why are we interested Using the Farm Business Survey Provisional results Initial observations Issues Future Work 2

3 Background: UK TFP Calculated at the aggregate level Over 500 different items are used in the calculation The data is gathered from a number of sources Farm Business Survey (inputs) June Survey/Farm Structure Survey (labour) Crop data from various sources: Defra Surveys, Home Grown Cereal Authority, and contractors (ADAS) Livestock data from various sources: Defra Surveys supplemented with data from the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board and the Rural Payments Agency Produced annually 3

4 Background: UK TFP Fisher Index is used with chain linking to calculate UK TFP Laspeyres (L) =x 1 /x 0 = p i0 x i1 / p i0 x i0 Paasche (P) =x 1 /x 0 = p i1 x i1 / p i1 x i0 Fisher Index (F) = (L*P) Value is used to weight the volumes rather than price 4

5 Sector Level TFP why are we interested? Get below the aggregate TFP series to compare trends in productivity across sectors to see how productivity varies over time within a sector further downstream, to look at distributions of TFP within sectors Two specific uses have already been identified Agri-tech strategy (evaluation) Committee for Climate Change (establishing a baseline for anticipated growth in TFP before adoption of any extra mitigation practices) 5

6 Using the Farm Business Survey as sole data source Sector-level TFP based entirely on FBS data is completely new approach. Need to use FBS because not all of the data sources used for the UK TFP can provide a sector break down. 500 individual items are needed Corresponding FBS survey items had to be identified Volume and value needed for each item - FBS does not collect volumes for some of the items TFP model used for the UK does not include land A model incorporating land has been developed for this exercise. 6

7 Comparison to UK TFP (All Farms) Total Factor Productivity, 1990 to 2011 (1992=100) TFP: England (FBS based) series TFP: UK series 0 Note: Model excludes land 7

8 Provisional results: Dairy TFP for Dairy, 1990/91 to 2011/12 (1992=100) FINAL OUTPUT AT MARKET PRICES (excluding capital formation in livestock and inter/intra) ALL Inputs and Entrepreneurial Labour TFP: Dairy 8

9 Provisional results: Cereals TFP for Cereals, 1990/91 to 2011/12 (1992=100) FINAL OUTPUT AT MARKET PRICES (excluding capital formation in livestock and inter/intra) ALL Inputs and Entrepreneurial Labour TFP: Cereal 9

10 Provisional results: Beef and Sheep (Less Favoured Areas) TFP for Beef and Sheep (Less Favoured Areas), 1990/91 to 2011/12 (1992=100) FINAL OUTPUT AT MARKET PRICES (excluding capital formation in livestock and inter/intra) ALL Inputs and Entrepreneurial Labour TFP: LFA Grazing Livestock 10

11 Provisional results: Beef and Sheep (Lowlands) TFP for Beef and Sheep (Lowland), 1990/91 to 2011/12 (1992=100) FINAL OUTPUT AT MARKET PRICES (excluding capital formation in livestock and inter/intra) ALL Inputs and Entrepreneurial Labour TFP: Lowland Grazing Livestock 11

12 Initial observations Good progress Dairy and Cereal sectors seem to be doing better. Beef and Sheep sectors not doing well support our observations of low incomes There is a close link trends between inputs and outputs for the beef and sheep sectors farmers reacting to market signals Difficulties with the calculations for the following sectors Pigs Poultry Horticulture Mixed General Cropping 12

13 Issues Changes in FBS recording form over time Changes in entry criteria for the FBS Changes to farm typology Small samples Sample turnover and composition 13

14 Future Work Further checking Quality assurance Examining distributions Publication 14

15 Thank you for your attention 15