Food Security and Climate Change in the Asia-Pacific Region: Evaluating Mismatch between Crop Development and Water Availability

Transcription

1 YEAR 1 PROGRESS REPORT for APN PROJECT ARCP NMY-Huda Food Security and Climate Change in the Asia-Pacific Region: Evaluating Mismatch between Crop Development and Water Availability The following collaborators worked on this project: Associate Professor Samsul Huda, University of Western Sydney (UWS), Australia, s.huda@uws.edu.au Associate Professor Victor Sadras, South Australian R&D Institute (SARDI), Australia, Victor.Sadras@sa.gov.au Prof Mei Xurong, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA), China, meixr@ieda.org.cn Dr Suhas P. Wani, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), India, s.wani@cgiar.org 0

2 Food Security and Climate Change in the Asia - Pacific Region: Evaluating Mismatch between Crop Development and Water Availability Project Reference Number: ARCP NMY-Huda Year 1 Progress Report Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

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4 Progress Report for Year 1 of APN Project ARCP NMY-Huda Part One: Overview of project work and outcomes 1. Introduction and background: Crop adaptation to environmental stresses is central to sustainable agriculture. In southern Australia, central India and north China temperature has increased and phenological patterns of major grain crops have shifted over the past 40 years. Cropping systems and varieties are designed so that water availability and crop water requirements are well matched. Mismatches between crop and environment occur when the critical period of crop yield determination coincides with stressful conditions. Possible mismatches arising from realized warming are the focus of this project. The APN partnered with the Crawford Fund to support the project planning workshop in Beijing in September 2010, which was hosted by the Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) and the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS). Research planning focused on crops of local importance including rice, wheat, maize and chickpea on key sites in India, China and Australia. Aspects covered planning of databases, methods, project management and review. The project identified a) appropriate models and data needs to incorporate relevant climate risk factors for matching crop development with water availability, b) Training in crop science, climate analysis and modeling to assess mismatch of crop phenology and water availability: This involved increased knowledge of the effect of climate change, both realized (historical) and predicted, on crop productivity and production options. 2. Participating countries: China: Prof Mei Xurong, Director General and Team Leader of the Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Beijing, China, meixr@ieda.org.cn, Phone: ; India: Dr Suhas P. Wani, Principal Scientist (Watersheds) and Project Coordinator (Integrated Watershed Management Projects) RP1 : Resilient Dryland Systems, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Patancheru , Andhra Pradesh, India, s.wani@cgiar.org, Phone ; Australia: Associate Professor Victor Sadras, Principal Crop Ecophysiologist, South Australian R&D Institute (SARDI), Victor.Sadras@sa.gov.au, Phone: ; Associate Professor Samsul Huda, Agroclimatologist and modeler, School of Natural Sciences, University of Western Sydney (UWS), Australia, s.huda@uws.edu.au, Phone Objectives: a. Determine expected temporal shifts in crop phenology under realized climate change and future climates b. Assess likely shifts in the pattern of rain and water availability c. Estimate elements of climate change that will contribute to any mismatch between crop phenology and water availability, and d. Evaluate expected consequences of this mismatch and other shifts associated with climate change for food security 1

5 4. Funding received for 2010/11: USD 48,000 of approved USD 60, Outcomes and products against original proposal objectives: Due to the late start of the project, the main progress towards achieving the project objectives has been the project planning Workshop held in Beijing in September The two major outcomes of the workshop were: a) Draft project plans for case studies in China, India and Australia: The workshop developed case studies in the three countries. The case studies are designed to cover different geographic areas with different threats (for example drying and warming in Australia) and opportunities (less cold stress in northern China, new short season soybean varieties in India) and different adaptation strategies. In China, a N-S transect of maize cropping systems will be useful. We also identified two questions to be addressed using climate analysis and modeling. Firstly, what are the realized changes in temperature, annual rainfall, rainfall seasonality and frequency distribution of rainfall events of different amounts? And secondly, how do these changes in temperature and rainfall patterns affect the water budget of major grain crops? The case studies are summarized in Attachment 1 in this report. b) A young researchers program: The workshop realized the significant input to the project that would be made by young researchers in China and India, based on the training provided at this and a subsequent workshop in India. Strategies are being developed to enhance capacitybuilding of these researchers during the project, including training in Australia and their involvement in the final international project workshop. The young researchers program will: allow capacity-building from senior researchers in their own country and in Australia allow them to visit Australia for training and research on the Australian program allow their involvement particularly in the last workshop in Australia, where they will present the results of their research We will examine the possibility of accessing some Crawford Funding to bring an Indian scientist (or maybe one from Harbin province) to Australia. Some other major points arising from workshop discussions were: a) The decision to recommend to APN the deletion of one workshop and allocate this money to research programs and the young researchers program. b) The decision to concentrate at least initially on realized climate change. Reliable data is available over the recent period of climate change and a number of scenarios suggest that future changes will be similar to realized changes. This will allow us, provided we have actual average yields (research or on-farm) for the last years, to separate the effect of improved technology on yields (actual data) from effects of changing climate (from simulated yields). c) The possibility of using simpler water stress models in analyzing mismatches. IEDA has a lot of experience in using these models. 2

6 d) The need to be careful that we do not use supplementary irrigation as an adaptation strategy if water resources are short. It was suggested that in most computer simulations the "supplementary irrigation" module should be turned off so as to determine the full effect of mismatches. In this context, adaptation will require better management of "green" water (rainfall) and more strategic use of "Blue" water (irrigation) and of course a concentration on increasing Nitrogen Use Efficiency. e) The workshop also developed a framework for some good publications to report the results of our collaborative research. Data Collection At each case study site (Australia, India and China) we will be collecting the following data: Climate data: Long-term, quality Daily temperature (max, min and mean) Daily rainfall Wind speed Solar radiation Sunshine hours Relative humidity Vapor Pressure deficit Open pan evaporation/penman-monteith Data Analysis We will carry out following analysis Time trends (R square significance, slope) Split record Annual rainfall Seasonality (rainy, postrainy or other relevant criteria based on agronomy and climate information) Size of events Approach a) Realized changes We will be collecting long-term data ( ) for crop yield and phenology (farm, experimental). Crop water balance will be generated by employing simple model and detailed process-based model CERES b) Anticipated changes GCM climate output; Run CERES with GCM output c) Consequences and adaptations Test locally applicable adaptation to overcome negative consequences or to take maximum advantages of climatic shifts. Scientific papers: Publication of research results including shifts in rainfall patterns (India, China, and Australia) 3

7 6. Self evaluation of work performed to date: The project-planning workshop has been the major project activity to date and the team a) Defined tasks, resources, case study sites and designated roles and responsibilities of team members b) Formulated strategies to implement the work including communication needs c) Developed hypotheses to test how phenology has been and will be affected with increasing temperature? d) Commenced a review of biological and agronomical data required for modeling the influence of climate change. e) Visited case study sites in China - the first field visit was for discussion with students of the FACE (Free-air carbon dioxide enhancement) experiment in Beijing. Project scientists provided input on physiological principles of wheat responses to CO2 to postgraduate students. The second field trip was to Harbin Province which is one of the planned experimental sites in China. f) Planned the next workshop to be held in Hyderabad (see Draft program in Attachment 2) g) Compiled long-term climate data for some selected sites The project members worked well as a team, and it was encouraging to obtain supplementary funding from the Crawford Fund for the Beijing workshop. We are hopeful of obtaining additional funding from both the Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the Crawford Fund to support the Young Researchers Program. 4

8 7. Appendix Attachment 1: Case Studies Developed at the Beijing Workshop a) Australia Case Study: There is a mismatch between crop and environment when the critical window of grain yield determination coincides with stressful conditions. We will investigate this mismatch for wheat in a transect in eastern Australia We ask the following questions How did temperature, VPD, radiation, diffuse radiation, rainfall patterns changed between 1957 and 2010? How did these changes affect the stress conditions during the critical window of wheat? How did changes in rainfall features (amount, seasonality and size of events) influence the fate of water & water-driven processes Logistics: One Chinese and One Indian scientist to spend 3-6 weeks each in Adelaide and Sydney, Australia b) India Case Study Two sites in India: One in Central India, one in South India In Central India our site is in Madhya Pradesh Soils: Vertisols (deep black cotton soils- Swelling and shrinking characteristics, high clay content> 50%) Rainfall: South West monsoon (1100 mm per year) Cropping systems: Soybean + Chickpea or Wheat In South India our site is in Karnataka Soils: Vertisols (deep black cotton soils- Swelling and shrinking characteristics, high clay content> 50%) Rainfall: South West monsoon (700 mm per year) Cropping systems: Soybean + Sorghum or Chickpea (Dharwad) Haveri district: Maize + Chickpea Software: DSSAT V3.5 for soybean, maize, sorghum and chickpea Super-early chickpeas: ICRISAT is ahead of the game with its breeding program need to develop core modeling capacity to ensure this is maintained in all aspects of our work. c) China Case Study Location: North China System Winter wheat maize + supplementary irrigation 5

9 Between winter wheat yield increased from 3-4 to 7 t/ha and maize yield increased from 6 to 12 t/ha Increased temperature, reduced rainfall Maize maturity group was changed to favor longer season hybrid; yield doubled Increased water deficit Timing of irrigation: 2-3 irrigation events; booting stage Questions 1. How much temperature and rainfall shift did occur in the last 50 years in a transect? 2. How did recent climate shift influence the system, particularly the phenology of crops? 3. How did changes in temperature affect the thermal time to flowering and maturity in wheat and maize? 4. How this shift affected water budget for wheat and maize and irrigation requirements? 5. How are future climate shifts going to affect the system, phenology and water availability? Attachment 2: Hyderabad workshop - Oct-Dec 2011 Objectives: Review the progress against milestones Identify strength and weakness Plan for the completion of the project Network with local scientific and farming communities Activities: a) Run models with datasets, presentation of model outputs of phenology and water availability under future climates. b) Presentation and discussion of results and issues arising from work to date. c) Presentation of data from past and current experiments to determine if it is affecting crops in Australia, China and India. d) Obtain feedback from policy on relevance of project direction and outputs. e) Refine project as necessary using feedback from researchers, community workers and policy makers. Day 1 Review of the first year s progress Day 2 Planning for the future activities Day 3 Visit to ICRISAT site and Village Watershed sites Day 4 Case Study sites Day 5 Wrap-up 6

10 Part Two: Request for project continuation 8. Funding requested for 2011/12: USD 59, Budget for 2011/12 Due to the delay in the project start, the second workshop in Hyderabad will now be in November/December Also as presented earlier, because of the importance of capacity building associated with young researchers in the project, we are proposing the diversion of funds from the planned fourth workshop to a specifically designed young researchers program to enhance the research activities. This will allow the participation of young project team members in data analysis and capacity building activities associated with research in country and in Australia, and as a part of the final project workshop in Australia. Details of this budget ($18, 400 allocated for Beijing Workshop in 2012) will be provided subject to APN approval of the reallocation of funds. Year 1 August 2010-July 2011 Estimated Costs for Planning Workshop (2010 Sep/Oct Beijing) Travel Round trip airfare Accommodati on 10 days Allowances 10 days No of Participants Total US $ Sydney- Beijing 2, 000 1, , 400 Adelaide-Beijing 2, 000 1, , 400 Hyderabad- 1, 500 1, , 900 Beijing Domestic travel within China Provinces , 500 Total 12,200 Other Costs: Local Transport/airport Transfer 1, 000 Field Trip 2, 000 Communication 500 Catering tea, coffea 400 Reception dinner 500 Consumables 300 Workshop proceedings 1, 500 Total 6,200 Total for the first workshop: 12, , 200 = $18, 400 7

11 Estimated Costs for second workshop (2011 June, Hyderabad) Round trip Accommodati Allowances Travel airfare on 10 days 10 days Sydney- Hyderabad Adelaide- Hyderabad Beijing- Hyderabad Domestic travel within Indian Provinces No of Participants Total US 2, 000 1, , 400 2, 000 1, , 400 1, 500 1, , , 500 Total 12,200 Other Costs: Local Transport/airport Transfer 1, 000 Field Trip 2, 000 Communication 500 Catering tea, coffea 400 Reception dinner 500 Consumables 300 Workshop proceedings 1, 500 Total 6,200 Total for the second workshop: 12, , 200 = $18, 400 Data Collection and Analysis: Year 1 August 2010-July 2011 Data Collection and Analysis: US $ Australia: Sydney 5, 800 Australia: Adelaide 5, 800 China Beijing 5, 800 India: Hyderabad 5, 800 Total 23, 200 Year 1: 18, , , 200 = $60, 000 8

12 Year 2 August 2011-July 2012 Estimated cost for third workshop (2011 Dec Sydney/Adelaide) Travel Round trip airfare Accommodati on 10 days Allowances 10 days No of Participants Total US $ Beijing-Sydney 2, 000 1, , 400 Hyderabad- Sydney 2, 000 1, , 400 Adelaide- Sydney 500 1, , 900 Australian domestic 500 1, , 600 participants Total 16,300 Other Costs: Local Transport/airport Transfer 1, 000 Field Trip 2, 000 Communication 500 Catering tea, coffea 400 Reception dinner 500 Consumables 300 Workshop proceedings 1, 500 Total 6,200 Total for the third workshop: 16, , 200 = $22, 500 Estimated cost for Final workshop (2012 May, Beijing) Travel Round trip airfare Accommodati on 10 days Allowances 10 days No of Participants Total US Sydney- Beijing 2, 000 1, , 400 Adelaide-Beijing 2, 000 1, , 400 Hyderabad-Beijing 1, 500 1, , 900 Domestic travel , 500 within China Provinces Total 12,200 Other Costs: Local Transport/airport Transfer 1, 000 Field Trip 2, 000 Communication 500 Catering tea, coffea 400 Reception dinner 500 Consumables 300 Workshop proceedings 1, 500 Total 6,200 Total for the fourth workshop: 12, , 200 = $18, 400 9

13 Year 2 August 2011-July 2012 Data Collection and Analysis: Data Collection and Analysis: US $ Australia: Sydney 4, 200 Australia: Adelaide 4, 200 China Beijing 4, 200 India: Hyderabad 4, 200 Total 16, 800 Final Publication: $2, 000 Year 2 Budget: $22, $18, $6, $2, 000 = $ 59, 700 Year 1 = $60, 000 Year 2 = $ 59, 700 Total = $ 119, Definitive project targets for 2011/12 Major elements of the Research Program Understand impacts of climate change at case study regions using simulation models Assess the mismatches for crop phenology associated with climate change impacts Evaluate available improved soil, water, crop, nutrient and pest management options to increase agricultural productivity and bridge the yield gaps Fit the climate change ready crops and technologies to reduce impacts of climate change on crop productivity Test locally applicable adaptation to overcome negative consequences or to take maximum advantages of climatic shifts 10

14 Activity Formalise group structure, identify individual roles Prepare workshop papers Scoping/planning Workshop (Beijing) Prepare/circulate workshop report, model runs First Progress Report, Test initial model Prepare papers and workshop in Hyderabad Collection of necessary data from secondary sources Refine model using existing and new data Final results Sydney and Adelaide workshop Workshop Report Circulation Prepare/submit final report 24-month timeline for two year project A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J 11

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