Top 10 Strategic Technologies for 2005

Transcription

1 Top 10 Strategic Technologies for 2005 Jamie Popkin October 29, 2004 Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner's official approval. Such approvals may be requested via

2 Conclusion: Top 10 Technologies Bluetooth MEMS Real-time DW Grid Linux WiMax Smartphones CRM Portals iscsi SANs IP Telephony Utility computing Instant Messaging SCM Opteron Nanocomputing XBRL UWB Software as Services Zibgee Real-Time Infrastructure Mobile applications Natural Language Search Micro fuel cells RFID Tags MMS Speech recognition g Trusted Platforms OLED/LEP Wikis Mesh networks Camera Phones e-ink IT self-service Information extraction Smart dust Semantic Web Tablet PCs 4G wireless Taxonomies Location-aware services Ontologies Unified communications Metadata management Maturing within 36 months IP telephony Software as services Instant messaging Grid Partial value next three years RFID tags Taxonomies Real-time infrastructure Mesh networks Location-aware services OLED/LEP displays

3 Client Issues Which technologies will overcome important barriers and limitations in the next three years? Which technologies will move from narrow niches to more-widespread adoption by 2007? How should companies change their plans and approaches based on these new opportunities?

4 Real-Time Enterprise A real-time enterprise (RTE): Monitors, captures and analyzes root cause and overt events that are critical to the success of the organization Does it the moment those events occur Exploits that real-time information to progressively remove delays in managing and executing critical detection, reporting, decisionmaking and response business processes

5 Instant Messaging in the Company Values: Presence service Real time No rewind Low overhead Security concerns: Data protection Privacy Tamper resistance Other Issues: Lack of audit trail Quality of service limitations Poor integration capability Lost record of decisions Text-focused, limited media

6 The Challenge of Taxonomies Taxonomy Maintain Index "IS_broader" / "IS_narrower" Taxonomy Creation and Maintenance Inventory Content Categorize content assets Label category Building: Best Practices Right expertise Adapt in-house or commercial taxonomies. Use content and portal implementation teams. Mix of human and machine classifications. Use thesauri to map terms. Keep taxonomy structures simple. Commit resources for ongoing maintenance.

7 Location-Aware Services Inventory/logistics: find moving items or know status Contact appropriate person based on their location Locate lost family members Increase asset utilization of moveable items Enforcing policies Shine a light into Information Shadows Location methods: Wi-Fi Bluetooth GPS/Galileo Cellular Mobile phone RFID Vendor examples: Cambridge Positioning Systems SiRF Snaptrack Ekahau Aeroscout Axcess Lesswire Cell-loc

8 The Business Value of IP Telephony Others Company Provided Retail Applications Government Applications Education Applications Healthcare Applications Unified Messaging Unified Communications Conferencing Contact Centers IP Telephony Applications Voice-Enabled Applications ERP, CRM, SCM SIP and Directory Services IM IP PBX Functionality Firewalls, Gateways, Routers, Switches Business Value IP Telephony VoIP-Enabled Infrastructure (LAN) VoIP-Enabled Infrastructure (WAN) MPLS, IP, ATM, VPNs Managed LAN Services Service Provider Provided Managed and Outsourced Voice-Enabled Applications IP Centrex Horizontal and Vertical Applications IM

9 The Changing Driver for IP Telephony: Voice and Data Integration Percentage of IP phones performing functions other than POTS Business Case Justification Based on Cost Savings Business Case Justification Based on Investment Protection Business Case Justification Based on Business Value V1 Applications V2 Applications V3 Applications V1 Applications IP-PBX, basic call functions, branch offices, toll-bypass V2 Applications Call center functions, messaging, administration tools and reports V3 Applications Unified communications, application integration with communications

10 OLED/LEP Displays Very low power Very high contrast OLED LEP Read in bright light PLED FOLEP Extreme wide-angle viewing Flexible and malleable TOLEP Olight Source: Sarnoff Laboratories Vendors include: Kodak Covion Phillips Siemens Dupont Universal Display Cambridge Display Technology Source: Universal Display Corporation FOLED Movie Source: Phillips

11 Software Treated as Services Service-Oriented Development of Develop Applications (SODA) Interface Separation Wrapping (Reflection) Description Dynamism Interoperability Is Cheaper Than Integration Deploy Service- Oriented Architecture (SOA) Contracts Messages Repository Servers OOP Composite Applications Real-Time (JIT) Integration

12 Web Services Readiness Scope of Deployment Full Internet Extended enterprise Crossindustry Crossenterprise Individual department Stage 3: 2007 Onward Unlimited Prospects, Suppliers, Influencers Stage 2: 2005 Limited External- Trading Partners Stage 1: 2003 Internal Development One department. CIO office Industry consortia (public) International/ U.S. standards bodies Scope of Web Services (WS) Open-sourced WS-UDDI Directories Shared WS for trusted supply chains; narrow partner groupings Proprietary WS for internal integration Scope of Standards

13 Mesh Networks Low-power CPU On-chip wireless Ad hoc networking algorithms May be self-powered On-chip sensors (such as MEMS) g Mesh network properties: iself-organizing iself-healing irobust, disaster-resistant ino global management Has good potential when: ilarge number of nodes iunplanned architecture icables are expensive Sensor networks combine mesh principles with sensing nodes RFID and mesh will converge Vendors include Crossbow, Dust, Ember, Millennial Net and Zensys

14 Grid Computing Application Owner A Owner B Owner C

15 Utility Computing and Grid Application Owner A Utility selling grid resources

16 RFID Tag Successor to Bar Codes Can read even covered Can read while moving Can scan at distance Survives water, heat, painting Price dropping to low levels Can remain in product for life Privacy issues must be solved Current Applications Toll pass systems Pet identification Access cards Retail theft protection Electronic parolee tracking Potential Applications Locate common objects Improved asset control Real-time retail-shelf inventory Move to faster or self-checkout Improve manufacturing and supply-chain efficiency After-sale services offerings Photo Source:Texas Instruments

17 The Driver for Real Time Infrastructure Edge Service A Service B Service C (and Many Others) Application Database Current state is inflexible and does not reflect business priorities Inefficient Overprovisioned Hard to manage Trend for increasing cost of labor versus automation

18 Real-Time Infrastructure: Efficient, Flexible Optimization Workloads/Data Applications Efficient utilization of resources to service policies Policies IT service definitions Service agreements Business priorities Provisioning Middleware Resources Compute Store Network Databases Availability Services That meet business requirements Self-discover, install and integrate Identities/Security Avoid, predict, react to failures

19 Recommendations Look for the potential value of these technologies in your business Ramp up in maturity in the near term This is not an all-inclusive list! Other near-term technology opportunities include: Smartphones Linux for the enterprise Speech recognition in telephony The Ten Technologies Instant Messaging Mesh Networks Taxonomies IP telephony Software as services Real-time infrastructure OLED/LEP displays Location-aware services Grid RFID tags

20 Top 10 Strategic Technologies for 2005 Bob Hayward Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner's official approval. Such approvals may be requested via