Gas Infrastructure Trends and Impacts Downstream

Transcription

1 LawIQ Harnessing Analytics For Energy Infrastructure Gas Infrastructure Trends and Impacts Downstream American Gas Association FRC Committee October 27, Pennsylvania Ave., SE Washington, DC 20003

2 Our Discussion 1) Pipeline Regulatory Trends 2) Case Study: Marcellus / Utica Takeaway Capacity 3) Shipper and Project Sponsor Trends

3 !! Search, track, analyze Industry Silos Engineering/Environmental Financial/Corporate Regulatory/Legal Competitive and FERC alerting Actionable analytics from regulatory activity for gas pipeline & end user decision makers. Project modeling Contract & Rate Analytics Plan better Negotiate stronger Operate confidently

4 Machine Learning - Data Inputs We incorporate hundreds of discreet features (inputs) that update our dynamic forecasts. Our modeling automatically adjusts weighting and calculations of data as they re ingested. Stakeholder Entities Energy Companies Project Developer, MLP, Construction Contractor Anchor Shippers E&P, Utilities, Local Distribution Co s, Marketers Regulatory Filings Data Requests, Agency cooperation, Developer supplements Company Filings Environmental studies, Asset financials, tree clearing Project Attributes Protestors National Environmental, Native Tribes, Law Firms Federal / State Regulators FERC, State Agencies, ACE, Historic Pres. Project Characteristics Total Costs, Pipe Diameter, Compression Protestor Impact Legal actions, Regulator appeals, volume and timing Legal Dockets Appeals, rehearings Federal Agency Data requests, comments Data Sources State Agencies Approval times Other Commercial terms, seasonality

5 Trends in Pipeline Permitting Lasting Longer with More Uncertainty

6 FERC Certificate Trends For Pre-filed projects, the trend in time to obtain a certificate has accelerated since For non Pre-filed projects that trend didn t emerge until ~ 500 days ~ 250 days

7 FERC Certificate Duration Obtaining a FERC certificate is taking from about 40% longer. Includes Greenfield and Facility/Laterals

8 Company versus Actual Dates There is a large variation between the date requested and the actual FERC certificate date. Many projects have received FERC certificates before the date requested (early).

9 Pinpointing the Delays Environmental, Protesters, FERC Date Request

10 Issuing the Certificate Project slippage occurs after completion of environmental review. Since 2013 there is a greater uncertainty in the time between EA/FEIS and certificate.

11 Protestor Involvement Among similar projects, big disparities exist regarding the number of entities and issues.

12 Volume of Data Requests FERC has issued a greater number of data requests before issuing the EA/FEIS. Not only for complex, greenfield projects, but also more routine pipeline expansions.

13 Case Study: Marcellus / Utica Takeaway

14 M/U Takeaway Public sentiment stems from owner-company public comments. How often do they reflect practical events in project development? 24 projects 8 projects (>1B) Project Volume Garden State Exp Phase 1 20, Expansion 61,000 Birdsboro Pipeline Project 79,000 New Market 112,000 New York Bay Expansion 115,000 CPV Valley Lateral Project 130,000 Atlantic Bridge 133,000 Orion Pipeline 135,000 Susquehanna West Project 145,000 Leidy South 155,000 Garden State Exp Phase 2 160,000 Triad Expansion 180,000 Broad Run Expansion 200,000 Eastern System Upgrade 200,000 Virginia Southside II 250,000 Northeast Supply Enhancement 400,000 PennEast Pipeline 1,075,000 Leach XPress 1,500,000 Atlantic Coast Pipeline 1,500,000 Atlantic Sunrise 1,700,000 Mountain Valley Pipeline 2,000,000 Nexus 2,000,000 Mountaineer Xpress 2,700,000 Rover 3,250,000

15 Forecasting Capacity and Supply Delays are hitting all projects. Magnitude of delay are project-specific and regional in nature. Leach Rover AS NEXUS ACP PennEast MXP MVP Project Volume Garden State Exp Phase 1 20, Expansion 61,000 Birdsboro Pipeline Project 79,000 New Market 112,000 New York Bay Expansion 115,000 CPV Valley Lateral Project 130,000 Atlantic Bridge 133,000 Orion Pipeline 135,000 Susquehanna West Project 145,000 Leidy South 155,000 Garden State Exp Phase 2 160,000 Triad Expansion 180,000 Broad Run Expansion 200,000 Eastern System Upgrade 200,000 Virginia Southside II 250,000 Northeast Supply Enhancement 400,000 PennEast Pipeline 1,075,000 Leach XPress 1,500,000 Atlantic Coast Pipeline 1,500,000 Atlantic Sunrise 1,700,000 Mountain Valley Pipeline 2,000,000 Nexus 2,000,000 Mountaineer Xpress 2,700,000 Rover 3,250,000

16 How long to 10B? Cumulative delays may mean significant constraints for M/U takeaway capacity. Extent of delay relies on confidence in regulatory progress (federal & state). 6 month delay 12 month delay 18 month delay

17 Shipper Trends

18 Shifting Markets Regional trends may be part basin-driven and part market-driven.

19 Supply to Demand Market developments and pricing have adjusted appetite for those considering commitments to new projects. Precedent Agreement Shippers % of Total Contracted Firm Capacity 24% 50% 60% 59% 17% 76% 50% 40% 41% 83% End User / Downstream' Producer / Upstream

20 LawIQ Thank You