Earthquake Risk of Kathmandu Valley. National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal (NSET)

Transcription

1 Earthquake Risk of Kathmandu Valley National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal (NSET)

2 Seismic Hazard Bam (>40,000) Bhuj Kashmir (>80,000 ) Wenchuan (>70,000) Kathmandu

3 k Acceleration Distribution Map (Mid Nepal Earthquake) Seismic Hazard of Kathmandu Valley Peak Acceleration Distribution Map (Mid Nepal Earth Legend I I I I nt nt nt nt e n s it e n s it e n s it e n s it 1934 Earthquake Intensity Distribution 0 y y y y 5 VI I VI I I I X X Kilometers Study area Municipality & Ward & VDC Acceleration(gal) > ST THE IN THE JICA Study, Mid Nepal Earthquake Considering MMI IX is logical THE STUDY ON EAR THQUAKE DI IN THE KATHMANDU VALLEY, KIN

4 Study on Seismic Vulnerab Drinking Water Supply Sys Kathamandu Valley Liquefaction Susceptibility Map of KV N Liquefaction Hazard in Kathmandu Valley Legend Study on Seismic Vulnerability of Drinking Water Supply System in Kathamandu Valley Liquefac tion Hazard High Medium Low Legend Very Low Liquefaction Hazard High Medium Low Very Low Not Liquefy Not Liquefy Major Major Road National Society for Earthquake Technology Kilometers

5 Buildings Stock (Typology) 2001 Survey

6 2001 Survey

7 Buildings Stock (Weakness) Adobe Brick in Mud About 40 mud based buildings Weak material strength Cracks, Delaminated, Tilted

8 Buildings Stock (Weakness) Brick in Cement Mortar ( about 20) Lack of Ductility, Complex configuration

9 Reinforced Concrete Engineered ( about 5) Non-Engineered (about 25 ) Engineered: Improper Configuration, Problem in Global Ductility Non-engineered: Lack of Strength and Element ductility

10 Damage to Buildings (Based on results of UNDP Building Code Project) Place Building Stock Damaged (Beyond Repair) Kathmandu 60 Lalitpur 60 Bhaktapur 75 Entire Valley 60 KVERMP Estimates at MMI IX

11 W E Damage to Buildings Heavily Damaged Building Distribution (Mid Nepal Earthquake) Legend W About 50 buildings S damaged Study area Municipality & District Legend Ward & VDC Heavily Damaged Building N Study area Municipality & District 800 Ward & VDC Heavily Damaged 800 Building S E THE STUDY ON EARTHQUAKE DISASTER MITIGATION IN THE KATHMANDU VALLEY, KINGDOM OF NEPAL Kilometers Ministry of H ome Affairs(MOH A) Departm ent of Narcotics Control & Disaster Managem ent JICA Study 2001: Damage at MMI VIII level shaking Japan International Cooperation Agency(JIC A) THE STUDY ON EAR THQUAKE DIS ASTER MITIGATIO IN THE KATHMANDU VALLEY, KINGDOM OF NEPAL

12 Building Typology Building Stock in Urban Areas of Kathmandu Valley Expected performance of Buildings at MMI IX level of Shaking More Vulnerabilities Less Vulnerabilities Safety/Vulnerability Factors About 60 Damage beyond Repair!!!

13 Building Damage and Homeless Population Total Population: Million Total Buildings: 500K 60 Buildings Damage: 300K Buildings Homeless Population: M 2010 Estimates!!!

14 asualty (Death : Mid Nepal Earthquake) N Casualty epal Earthquake) Kilometers JICA, 2001: death at MMI VIII 20 Kilometers Legend Municipality & District Ward & VDC Casualty (death) W E KVERMP, 1998 S (Population- 1.5M): THE STUDY ON EARTHQUAKE DISASTER MITIGATION IN THE KATHMANDU VALLEY, KINGDOM OF NEPAL W Ministry of Home Affairs(MOHA) Department of Narcotics Control & Disaster Management Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA) N S Legend E Death: 40,000 Injury: 95,000 Municipality & District Ward & VDC Casualty (death) Estimate with Population: 3.0M Death: 100,000 THE STUDY ON EARTHQUAKE DISASTER MITIGATION IN THE KATHMANDU VALLEY, KINGDOM OF NEPAL Serious Injury: 100,000 Ministry of Home Affairs(MOHA) Department of Narcotics Control & Disaster Management Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA) Moderate Injury: 200,000

15 School Buildings Typology- Kathmandu Valley School survey in KV done in Total public schools = 643 Schools surveyed = 378 No. of buildings = 909 Reinforced Concrete Frame 11 Adobe (sun-dried bricks) 5 Brick or hollow concrete block or semi-dressed stone in cement mortar 28 Stone in mud mortar 16 (Ref: SESP NSET) Brick in mud mortar 40

16 Schools 643 Public Schools in KV Repairable Damage 23 Severe Damage or Partial Collapse (not repairable / not usable after shaking- 11 Collapsed Grade 66 Potential Damage of School Buildings in KV (IX MMI shaking)

17 Design Earthquakes Design Earthquakes Performance Assessment of Hospitals Expected Performance Fully Operational Functional Life Safety Near Collapse Frequent (50-50 Years) Occasional (20-50 Years) Rare (10-50 Years) Very Rare ( Years) Unacceptable Performance for New Construction Performance Objective for Standard Occupancy Buildings Performance Objective for Emergency Response Facilities Performance Objective for Safety Critical Facilities 2004 Study for 14 Major Hospitals in KV

18 Design Earthquakes Design Earthquakes Performance Assessment of Hospitals Expected Performance Fully Operational Functional Life Safety Near Collapse Frequent (50-50 Years) Occasional (20-50 Years) Rare (10-50 Years) Very Rare ( Years) Unacceptable Performance for New Construction Performance Objective for Standard Occupancy Buildings Performance Objective for Emergency Response Facilities Performance Objective for Safety Critical Facilities Present Status: Hospitals Increased, Safety Not!!!!!

19 Design Earthquakes Design Earthquakes Non-structural Implementation for 9 Major Hospitals (4 KV+ 5 Outside) Expected Performance Fully Operational Functional Life Safety Near Collapse Cost Frequent (50-50 Years) US$ 500K Occasional (20-50 Years) Unacceptable Performance for New Construction Rare (10-50 Years) Very Rare ( Years) Performance Objective for Standard Occupancy Buildings Performance Objective for Emergency Response Facilities Performance Objective for Safety Critical Facilities 2004 cost: $150K

20 Design Earthquakes Design Earthquakes Structural Retrofitting (9 hospitals: 4 KV+ 5 Regional) Frequent (50-50 Years) Expected Performance Fully Operational Functional Life Safety Near Collapse Cost US$ 15 M Occasional (20-50 Years) Unacceptable Performance for New Construction Rare (10-50 Years) Very Rare ( Years) Performance Objective for Standard Occupancy Buildings Performance Objective for Emergency Response Facilities Performance Objective for Safety Critical Facilities 2004 cost: $5.4 Million

21 Importance of Retrofitting Description Phase I Phase II Expected Performance at Present 80 Hospitals has life safety threat to Occupants and will be completely out of Function after a moderate earthquake 20 will be partially functional Input Intervention Activity Expected Performance after Intervention US$ 500 K (2004 Cost for 9 Hospitals: 150K) Improvements in nonstructural elements 80 Partially Operational after a Moderate earthquake 20 fully operational after a moderate earthquake US$ 15 M (2004 cost for 9 Hospitals: 5.4 M) Detail assessment, design and retrofit of hospital buildings Additional Improvement of Nonstructural elements 90 Hospitals do not collapse during a severe earthquake and partially operational 10 Hospitals fully operational even after a severe earthquake

22 Water System Functionality: One Week after the Scenario Earthquake NSET/KVERMP, 1999 <30 users served 30 to 60 users served 60 to 100 users served 100 users served Urban areas Major roads Major rivers Boundary of Kathmandu Valley

23 Water System Functionality: After Six Month after the Scenario Earthquake NSET/KVERMP, 1999 <30 users served 30 to 60 users served 60 to 100 users served 100 users served Urban areas Major roads Major rivers Boundary of Kathmandu Valley

24 Water System Wd 3 Wd 16 Wd 4 Wd 29 Wd 2 Wd 6 Wd 5 Wd 15 Wd 17 Wd 1 Wd 18 Wd 30 Wd 33 Wd 20 Wd 31 Wd 22 Wd 13 Wd 32 Wd12 Wd 11 Wd 14 Wd 10 National Society for Earthquake Technology Wd 7 Wd 8 Wd 9 Wd 34 Wd 35 N Detail Study Distribution Pipenetwork with Liquefaction Hazard in Kathmandu Metropolitan City Conducted pipeline system Study on Seismic Vulnerability of Drinking Water Supply System in Kathamandu Valley of three Municipalities Legend Liquefaction Hazard Verifies the High Medium Low Very Low Noy Liquefy Distribution P ipeline with Diameter in mm < KVERMP >50 0 Ward Boundary 0 1 Estimates Kilometers

25 Road and Bridges

26 Bridge Damage Distribution (Mid Nepal Earthquake) N W E S Ñ Ñ Ñ Ñ & Ñ Ñ Ñ Ñ & Ñ Ñ Ñ Ñ Ñ Bridge Ñ & Legend Study area Municipality & District Ward & VDC Collapse Unstable Not collapse National Highway Ringroad Feeder Road (Major) Feeder Road (Minor) Urban Road (Major) District Road (Bituminous) Urban Road (Minor) Urban Road (Gravel) District Road (Gravel) Kilometers THE STUDY ON EARTHQUAKE DISASTER MITIGATION IN THE KATHMANDU VALLEY, KINGDOM OF NEPAL Ministry of H ome Affairs(MOH A) Departm ent of Narcotics Control & Disaster Managem ent Japan International Cooperation Agency(JIC A)

27 N Accessibility of Roads (Mid Nepal Earthquake) W E S Legend Study area Municipality & District Ward & VDC Airport Unpassable Passable Kilometers THE STUDY ON EARTHQUAKE DISASTER MITIGATION IN THE KATHMANDU VALLEY, KINGDOM OF NEPAL Ministry of Home Affairs(MOHA) Department of Narcotics Control & Disaster Management Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA)

28 Other Infrastructures Telephone Exchange Buildings most Telephone lines >60 Electric substations most Electric lines 40 NSET/ KVERMP Estimates, 1998