Arran Locality Partnership. Building baseline Profiles for the Locality Partnership

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Carol Johnson
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1 Arran Locality Partnership Building baseline Profiles for the Locality Partnership

2 What we will cover: Population Housing Health SIMD 2016

3 Population Change

4 Population distribution by locality (2015) Arran 3% Three Towns 24% Garnock Valley 15% North Coast 17% Irvine 29% 3% 4,562 12% Kilwinning Source: NRS Small Area Population Estimates

5 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Locality Population Estimates ,562 Arran 20,128 Garnock Valley 39,517 16,181 22,827 Irvine Kilwinning North Coast 32,915 Three Towns Source: NRS Small Area Population Estimates 2016

Arran Population Drops THE population of the Arran has dropped by more than 400 people - despite an overall increase in the number of people living on Scottish islands.

6 Arran Population Drops THE population of the Arran has dropped by more than 400 people - despite an overall increase in the number of people living on Scottish islands. According to the latest census figures, the number of islanders throughout the country has risen by 4 per cent to 103,702. The census, which took place on March 27, 2011, determined that islanders represented 2 per cent of Scotland's 5.2 million population..

8 45,000 40,000 Locality Population Estimates ,271 39,517 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Down 1.1% 21,221 Down 5.1% 20,128 17,255 Down 6.2% 21,584 16,181 22,827 32,915 10,000 5,000 4,613 4,562 0 Arran Garnock Valley Irvine Kilwinning North Coast Three Towns Source: NRS Small Area Population Estimates 2016

9 10,000 Arran Locality Population Estimates ,000 8,000 7,000 6, Census Down % 5,000 4,690 4,613 4,562 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,

10 Percentage Change in Locality populations 2011 to Arran 2.7 Garnock Valley Irvine Kilwinning North 0.5 Coast Three North Towns Ayrshire

11 ,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Arran Population Projection % 47% 32% 0 to to Population

12 The image part with relationship ID rid3 was not found in the file. The image part with relationship ID rid3 was not found in the file. The image part with relationship ID rid3 was not found in the file. The image part with relationship ID rid3 was not found in the file. The image part with relationship ID rid3 was not found in the file. The image part with relationship ID rid3 was not found in the file. Change in the key age groups 2012 and North Coast Over 65s 32% 16% 0 17yrs Over 65s 49% 14% 0 17yrs 52% 37% Working Age 18 64yrs Working Age 18 64yrs Source: National Records of Scotland, Population Projections 2016

13 Population Change Summary Age Group Arran North Ayrshire 0 to 17 years 18 to 64 years 32% 47% 9% 13% 65 years & over 15% 31% Overall population change 25% 4%

14 Life Expectancy Scotland and North Ayrshire

15 Life Expectancy Scotland & Ayrshire Scotland East Ayrshire North Ayrshire South Ayrshire

16 The image part with relationship ID rid3 was not found in the file. The image part with relationship ID rid3 was not found in the file. Life expectancy Scotland / North Ayrshire Arran years North Ayrshire 76.5 years Scotland 76.6 years MALES Arran years North Ayrshire 81.0 years Scotland 80.8 years FEMALES Source: NRS Life expectancy estimates 1 Based on median of life expectancy for relevant North Coast, West Kilbride & Cumbrae intermediate zones

Female Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) Fairlie and Rural Skelmorlie and Rural West Kilbride and Seamill Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and

Largs South Ardrossan North West Beith East and Rural Dalry West Kilwinning Central and North Irvine Perceton and Lawthorn Irvine Central

Ardeer Ardrossan North East Irvine Castlepark North Kilbirnie South and Longbar Stevenston Hayocks Irvine Bourtreehill Irvine Castlepark South

17 Female Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) Fairlie and Rural Skelmorlie and Rural West Kilbride and Seamill Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and Irvine Broomlands Largs North Springside and Rural Irvine Tarryholme Arran Irvine Girdle Toll and Staneca Dalry East and Rural Kilbirnie North Largs South Ardrossan North West Beith East and Rural Dalry West Kilwinning Central and North Irvine Perceton and Lawthorn Irvine Central Scotland Largs Central and Cumbrae Saltcoats North West Irvine East Beith West Kilwinning Pennyburn Stevenston North West Dreghorn Stevenston Ardeer Ardrossan North East Irvine Castlepark North Kilbirnie South and Longbar Stevenston Hayocks Irvine Bourtreehill Irvine Castlepark South Saltcoats Central Irvine Fullarton Ardrossan Central Kilwinning West and Blacklan Saltcoats North East

Male Life Expectancy (IZs) Kilwinning Whitehirst Park Skelmorlie and Rural Fairlie and Rural Arran Ardrossan North West Largs South

Stevenston Ardeer Kilwinning Central and North Dalry West Scotland Beith West Irvine Girdle Toll and Staneca Ardrossan North East

Dalry East and Rural Saltcoats North East Irvine East Saltcoats Central Irvine Bourtreehill Irvine Central Ardrossan Central Irvine

18 Male Life Expectancy (IZs) Kilwinning Whitehirst Park Skelmorlie and Rural Fairlie and Rural Arran Ardrossan North West Largs South Springside and Rural Largs North Saltcoats North West Kilbirnie North West Kilbride and Seamill Irvine Perceton and Lawthorn Dreghorn Stevenston Ardeer Kilwinning Central and North Dalry West Scotland Beith West Irvine Girdle Toll and Staneca Ardrossan North East Kilwinning Pennyburn Irvine Tarryholme Beith East and Rural Stevenston Hayocks Largs Central and Cumbrae Kilbirnie South and Longbar Dalry East and Rural Saltcoats North East Irvine East Saltcoats Central Irvine Bourtreehill Irvine Central Ardrossan Central Irvine Broomlands Kilwinning West and Blacklan Stevenston North West Irvine Castlepark South Irvine Fullarton Irvine Castlepark North

19 Household Income Arran

20 35,000 30,000 Gross Average Household Income (2015) (North Ayrshire) 34,625 30,537 36,402 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain

21 35.0 Gross Household Income (% of households by locality ) Percentage of households to 10k 10 to 20k 20 to 30k 30 to 40k 40 to 50k 50 to 100k 100k+ 1.0 Arran Garnock Valley Irvine Kilwinning North Coast & Cumbraes Three Towns North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain

22 House Prices

23 85,000 81,500 75,000 68, ,000 Median House Price 2014 North Ayrshire Settlements 200, ,000 Median Price ( ) 150, , , , , ,000 92,000 50,000 60,000 Source: NRS Registers of Sasines 2015

24 100.0 Median House Price % Change % Change

25 SIMD 2016 Arran

26 Scotland s geography of deprivation The geography of deprivation remains stable Deprivation is mostly urban & clustered Glasgow has a disproportionate share Rural areas have pockets of need

27 More than nine out of ten datazones in the Top 20% most deprived are urban areas Mauchline to Dundee captures 94% of Scotland s top 20% most deprived datazones (1306 / 1395)

Three Towns Locality Partnership. Building baseline Profiles for the Locality Partnership

Three Towns Locality Partnership Building baseline Profiles for the Locality Partnership Three Towns What the Profile will cover Priorities from workshops & People s Panel 2015 Population change from 2012