Forests 2030 Policy Talk on the Future of Forests in Europe and North America

Transcription

1 Forests 2030 Policy Talk on the Future of Forests in Europe and North America Geneva 13 December 2011 Forests in North America Jeff Prestemon, US Forest Service

2 Thanks Introduction UNECE-FAO ToS on Forest Sector Outlook Timber Committee Linda Langner, USFS Canadian counterparts (Canadian Forest Service) Susan Phelps, Darcie Booth Joseph Buongiorno, UW-Madison Overview of the situation, from perspective of the North American Forest Sector Outlook Historical situation Projected situation, emphasis on bioenergy

3 Canada and the US NAFSOS Two-country overview of historical changes Projections to 2030, based on 2010 Resources Planning Act global modeling system (GFPM) Climate change embodied in domestic US timber supply shifts over time Scenarios based on IPCC A1B & B2 for Population Income Wood for a bioenergy sector (no evaluation of policies favoring carbon storage or biodiversity)

4 Summary Findings of NAFSOS Canada and the US have changed in 50 years Forest area relatively stable, but New natural threats: fire, insects, diseases, exotics, climate change Growing human threats: land use change, enhancement of natural threats Markets for many products shifting rapidly Pulp and paper sector declines Disinvestment, increased capacity abroad, losing out to some countries (e.g., China) Wood products market volatility Housing sector swings driving changes Mountain Pine Beetle (Source: USFS) Boreal Fire (Source: CFS) US Housing Starts, (Source: US Census Bureau)

5 Paper + Board Production and Trade, Production Exports Source: FAOSTAT Database (December 2011) Imports: Chinese imports peaked in 1999 (10.9 million t), fell more or less steadily to about 5 million t by the late 2000 s; US imports fell from 17.5 (2004) to 10.5 by 2010

6 Summary Findings of NAFSOS Other recent historical changes Technology change More recycled fiber Labor-saving technology increasingly used Changes in external market conditions Asian demand growth Increased production capacities in Asia, Oceania, South America Source: Statistics Canada Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Canada Employment, US Employment,

7 NAFSOS Projections Forest loss About 3% loss in North America to 2030, all scenarios Loss of 1% since 1992 to 2006 Continued losses in Asia, Africa, South America World losses, which are driven by economic growth in poorer countries Timber stock changes Stock growth in North America Significant changes elsewhere Gains in Europe and South America Losses in Asia and Africa Steady in Oceania (Australia, New Zealand)

8 NAFSOS Projections After housing market recovery Wood products market projected to recover Panel market strong growth after housing market recovery Lumber market growing (US) to declining (Canada) after recovery North American paper market faces challenges Growth in Asian demand, but Growth in overseas capacity Shrinking domestic demands for some paper Especially newsprint, less for printing and writing paper Leading to capacity shrinkage in these products Other paper and paperboard: continued growth Tied closely to economic growth

9 NAFSOS Projections Wood-based bioenergy sector impact evaluated by comparing A1B results with those of a special scenario (A1B-low fuelwood) No significant change in size of woodbased bioenergy sector under the low fuelwood scenario Wood based bioenergy sector impacts: Roundwood: higher prices in US, lower in Canada Wood and paper products: Lower output by 20% compared to no large bioenergy sector in the US Minimal effects in Canada

10 NAFSOS Projections Other bioenergy sector impacts Forest area change not affected (by model design) Forest stocks accumulate less or fall more rapidly North American stocks (and world stocks, coincidentally) rise 2% under A1B, 4% under A1B-Low Fuelwood Stocks rise 3% under B2 in North America (-1% globally) Comparative Advantages Modest effects, overall In main product categories (lumber, panels, paper), a wood-based bioenergy sector acts to favor the US, harm Canada Roundwood prices rise more in some places compared to others Forest area index (1992=100) Forest stock volume index (1992=100)

11 Summary and Implications North American forests: Forest area Decreased slightly in recent years (-1% since 1992) Decreases are projected (-3%, all in the US) Stocks Have grown recently Increases projected to 2030, less with a wood-based bioenergy sector Product markets and the bioenergy sector: Timberland owners favored (higher roundwood prices) Traditional product producers generally harmed

12 Summary and Implications Wood-based bioenergy market Emergence depends on Implementing legislation in the US, Canada Technology development Already exists to some extent European demand for North American pellets is affecting pulpwood prices New pellet capacity for exports coming online Emergence of policies in the US, at least, could negatively affect European importers of pellets

13 Questions and Answers