Is there a better measure for roundwood than the Board Foot?

Transcription

1 Is there a better measure for roundwood than the Board Foot? Neal Hart, Jendro & Hart, LLC Timber Measurement Society, Central Meeting - Portland, Oregon April 8, 2010

2 Three common, but false,, presumptions about Board Foot measurements: Like: Feet x = Meters 1. A "board foot" is the same in log and lumber measurement 2. Board foot log scales accurately predict lumber volume 3. The ratio of board feet to other scales is a single precise factor

3 What s s One Board Foot? It depends on what s s being measured! Logs Dimension Lumber 144 in in in in. 3 1 X 4 + Scribner 2 X 2 2 X 4 4 X 4 Lumber Tally

4 Scribner & 19th 19 Century Lumber Tally 21 st Century Technology Technolog y Large End of Log Small End of Log Large End of Log Small End of Log

5 Tradition! Why stick with Scribner?

6 Board Foot Measurement and Sawmill Margin Analysis BF Log? BF Lumber

7 Sawmill Margin Per MBF Lumber Sawdust & Shavings Chips Period 1 Lumber $600 $700 Tally less Period 2 Change $100 Logs $300 $500 Scribner $200 Margin $300 equals $200 Nonsense! ($100)

8 Sawmill Lumber Recovery BF Lbr Per: Period 1 Period 2 Change BF Scribner % Cubic Foot %

9 Sawmill Margin Per MBF LT Lumber Sawdust & Shavings Period 1 Period 2 Change Chips less $600 $700 $100 Logs $300 $350 $50 equals Margin $300 $350 $50

10 It s s easier to believe false presumptions than to believe the truth about board foot measurement!

11 Sawmill Revenue Per MBF LT Lumber Sawdust & Shavings Period 1 $600 Period 2 $700 Change $100 $600 $700 $100 Chips The Change in Per-Unit Revenues Expressed in Lumber Tally Does Not Show the Change in Lumber Recovery Between Periods

12 Sawmill Revenue Per CCF Lumber Sawdust & Shavings Period 1 $230 Period 2 $370 Change $140 $230 $370 $140 Chips Price Change: $100/MBF The Change LT x in Per-Unit MBF Revenues LT per CCF = $53 Recovery Expressed Change: in Cubic Scale Does Show the Change in Lumber Recovery Between Per. 1 Rev. $230/CCF x 38% increase = $87 Periods Total Change: $140

13 Sawmill Margin Per CCF Lumber Sawdust & Shavings Chips less Period 1 $230 Period 2 $370 Change $140 Logs $115 $185 $70 equals Margin $115 $185 $70

14 What s s the Cost of Scribner? Confusion about board foot scaling has led to costly errors and litigation involving hundreds of $ Millions

15 Converting Between Cubic & Board Foot Log Scales CF? BF

16 Common, but false,, presumptions about Board Foot measurements Like: MBF x 4.53 = Cubic Meters 3. The ratio of Board Feet to other log scales is a single precise factor Cubic Scribner

17 Single Precise Conversion Factor is Promoted by Industry Literature Assumes a BF = BF = 144 in. 3 Production, Prices, Employment, and Trade in Northwest Forest Industries, All Quarters July 2009

18 Single Precise Conversion Factor is Promoted by Industry Literature Assumes a BF = BF = 144 in. 3 U.S. Timber Production, Trade, Consumption, and Price Statistics 1965 to 2005 Sept 2007 Assumes a BF = BF = 104 in. 3

19 Single Precise Conversion Factor is Promoted by Industry Reports March 27, 2009 Implies ave.. SED!

20 Cubic Meters per MBF Scribner LLS RC & AYC DF & WW Dual-Scale for Half Million Logs Average & 90% data range Diameter Small End (in.)

21 Cubic Meters per MBF Scribner LLS Hemlock Logs 8-11 dib Mean +/- 1 Std dev Diameter Small End (in.)

22 Cubic Meters per MBF Scribner LLS Hemlock Logs 8-11 dib " Confidence interval at 1 Std error is: 8.6 m3/mbf " 10" 11" Inches of Taper per Ten Feet of log Length

23 $/MBF Scribner Equal to $65/m 3 $900 $ Hemlock Logs 8-11 dib $700 $600 $500 $400 Confidence interval at 1 Std error is: $551 per MBF $387 - $551 8" 9" 10" 11" $ Inches of Taper per Ten Feet of log Length

24 So, despite what some industry literature suggests No Single Factor There is No to convert Board Feet to Cubic! CF? BF

25 Converting Among Log Scales in US-Canada Price Comparisons BC Interior $/m3 BC Metric US Inland PNW $/MBF Short Log Scribner m3/mbf Short Log Scribner (Cahill 1984) Log Diameter Small End (in.)

26 Converting Among Log Scales in Yr Ending 3/31/01 US-Canada Price Comparisons US $25.15/m3 BC Interior US $179/MBF US Inland PNW x 6.77 = $170/MBF (Cahill 1984) m3/mbf Short Log Scribner - $170/MBF = $9/MBF 5 4 Dual-Scale conversion factor is 6.77 m3/mbf for BC Interior Lodgepole & Spruce sawlog harvest Indicates Approx. Parity of Timber Costs Log Diameter Small End (in.)

27 Converting Among Log Scales in US-Canada Price Comparisons m3/mbf Short Log Scribner The most appropriate approach to m 3 /MBF US$25.15/m3 x 4.81 = $121/MBF (Cahill 1984) conversions would be for Commerce to use a standard, published, average factor 8 3/31/01 BC Interior 6 In fact, alone, its very longevity and stability suggest that, as a US$179/MBF general approximation, - $121/MBF = $58/MBF 5 it is reasonably accurate. US Inland PNW 4 US Dept. of Commerce uses a conversion factor of 4.81 m3/mbf for BC The Yr Ending 7 most widely accepted such factor is 4.53 m 3 /MBF. Interior Lodgepole & Spruce sawlog harvest US DOC Declares $58 Diff. as a Subsidy Expert for Coalition for Fair Lumber Imports January 2002 Log Diameter Small End (in.)

28 Converting Among Log Scales in US-Canada Price Comparisons BC Interior US Inland PNW During the US Government charged approx. $1.5 Billion in tariffs in tariffs on BC Interior manufacturers of Lodgepole & Spruce lumber Virtually all those tariffs resulted from incorrect conversion between US Scribner & BC Metric scale

29 What s s the Cost of Scribner? In the case of Canada US lumber trade, use of Scribner instead of Cubic in the U.S. has led to $ Billions in tariffs and litigation costs

30 Is there a better measure for roundwood than the Board Foot? I Say it s s Cubic!