Forest Health Based Scenario Building An accessible tool for managing a changing climate in Bruce Peninsula National Park

Transcription

1 Forest Health Based Scenario Building An accessible tool for managing a changing climate in Bruce Peninsula National Park Kelly Moores, Stephen Murphy (UW Environment & Resource Studies) & Scott Parker (Parks Canada)

2 Challenges for Parks

3 Challenges for Parks

4 Importance Ecological Integrity Mandate (National Parks Act, section 8) Question System Plan representation strategy (Parks Canada, 1997) Maintain biodiversity Facilitate northward migration Monitor long term changes Lead by example

5 Barriers Human Resources Financial Resources (Lemieux et al., 2011) 2012 Budget Cuts exacerbate problem Political will

6 Research Objective Use an established research program, regional climate models and scenario building technique to create an accessible tool that can be used by park managers to anticipate future restoration needs caused by climate change and facilitated improved decision making

7 Conceptual Framework Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Examine Historical Monitoring Knowledge for a Key System Driver Use Primary Climate Scenarios to Assess Potential Changes to Temperature and Precipitation Build Management Scenarios based on Stage 1 & 2 and Budget for Anticipatory Restoration

8 Stage 1 Trembling Aspen 6% Paper Birch 8% White Spruce 8% Other 6% Sugar Maple 18% Eastern Cedar 54% Adult tree abundance : Number of each tree species by percentage of trees

9 Stage 1 Site Annual Growth Rate Mortality State of the Park % 0% Pendall Point 2.6% 0.53% Horse Lake Trail -0.96% 1.28% Cameron Lake Dunes 2.67% 0% Emmett Lake 4.00% 0% Average % 0.45%

10 Tree Quantity Stage # dead trees % dead Maple Cedar Birch Balsem Aspen Spruce Unknown Tree Species Mortality data: Number of dead trees per species relative to total number of trees per species

11 Stage 1 Birch, 1 Cedar, 9 Aspen, 2 Ash, 45 Balsem, 43 Maple, 238 Regeneration data: Abundance of saplings by species

12 Stage 2 Comparison to reference Climate variable Reference A2 TP1 B1 TP1 A2 TP2 B1 TP2 A2 TP3 B1 TP3 Annual Mean Temperature C Annual Min Temperature C Annual Max Temperature C Annual Precipitation mm Precip in warmest quarter mm # of days of growing season

13 Difference from the Reference in Degree Celcius Stage A2 TP1 A2 TP2 A2 TP3 B1 TP1 B1 TP2 B1 TP Difference between predictions of monthly max temp (C) to the reference level for the BPNP region using scenarios A2 and B1

14 Monthly precipitation in mm Stage A2 TP1 A2 TP2 A2 TP3 Reference B1 TP1 B1 TP2 B1 TP January February March April May June July August September October November December Variation predicted for monthly precipitation

15 Scenario Building Scenarios are alternative images of how the future might unfold, a tool to analyze how driving forces might affect future outcomes (IPCC, 2000) Not a prediction, no probabilities assigned Driving forces often include: demographics, economics, technology, legislation, social values an attitudes (Becker, 1983)

16 Scenario Building Scenario # 1 Scenario # 2 Scenario # 3 Scenario # 4 Active Management Passive Management Active Management Passive Management Assess impact on forest health B1 A2

17 Scenario 1: Status Quo B1 Passive Management Forest remains very similar with small reduction in health of cedar and balsam fir over time Most change due to succession forest type dictated by soil depth

18 Scenario 2: Regional Resilience B1 Active Management Forest of generalist trees experiences minimal impact. Opportunity to build ecological integrity by targeting management and removing invasive species

19 Scenario 3: Novelized Forests A2 Passive Management Declines in the health of several boreal conifers but conifer overtake minimal due to poor soil. Increase in shrub plants and invasive species, loss of habitat and EI

20 Scenario 4: Anticipatory Restoration A2 Active Management Use planting to maintain coniferous/ deciduous forest structure More effort needed to maintain hardwood forest, opportunity to reintroduce historic hemlock Much effort needed to control invasive species and maintain good forest habitat

21 Conclusions Most trees generalists Soil and light requirements important Ecological Integrity of BPNP forest not in danger

22 Recommendations More funding is always better Emphasis on invasive species/pest management Soil conservation measures

23 Take Home Concepts Minimal resources required Show outcomes of multiple options Anticipates action required Efficient use of restoration funds Focus on EI mandate

24 Thank-you

25 References Araújo, Miguel B, Diogo Alagador, Mar Cabeza, David Nogués-Bravo, and Wilfried Thuiller Climate change threatens European conservation areas. Ecology letters 14(5): Retrieved March 12, 2012 ( ract). Baron, Jill S et al Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change. Environmental management 44(6): Retrieved July 16, 2011 ( ract). Becker, Harold S Scenarios A Tool of Growing Importance to Policy Analysts in Government and Industry. technological forcasting and social change 120: Burns, Catherine E, Kevin M Johnston, and Oswald J Schmitz Global climate change and mammalian species diversity in U.S. national parks. PNAS 100(20): Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Special Report: Emission Scenarios. Lemieux, Christopher J., Thomas J. Beechey, and Paul a. Gray Prospects for Canada s protected areas in an era of rapid climate change. Land Use Policy 28(4): Retrieved March 5, 2012 ( Lemieux, Christopher J., Thomas J. Beechey, Daniel J. Scott, and Paul a. Gray The state of climate change adaptation in Canada s protected areas sector. Canadian Geographer / Le Géographe canadien 55(3): Retrieved March 27, 2012 ( Parks Canada National Park System Plan. Retrieved ( Scott, Daniel, J A Y R Malcolm, and Christopher Lemieux Climate change and modelled biome representation in Canada s national park system : implications for system planning and park mandates. Ecology 25: Urban, Mark C, Josh J Tewksbury, and Kimberly S Sheldon On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change. Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society. Retrieved March 3, 2012 (