Indonesia Woodfiber Supply: Growth Model Approach Andi Rosilala

Transcription

1 Indonesia Woodfiber Supply: Growth Model Approach Andi Rosilala Agra Bareksa Indonesia Universitas Gadjah Mada

2 OUTLINE Introduction Indonesia Fact sheet System Dynamic Model Assumptions and Scenario Scenario 1,2,3,4 Analysis Conclusions ANDI ROSILALA

3 INDONESIA FACT SHEET Land Area 1,900,000 sq km (1) GDP: 861 Billions USD; 3370 USD per capita (2014) (1) Economic growth: 5.5 % (2014) (1) Forest: up to 30 m Indonesians depends on Forest Total Forest Area : 91 to 98 Mha (CIFOR, 2012) Production Forest Area : 29 Mha (MoF, 2016) Industrial Plantation Forest Area : 8 to 10 Mha (various sources) Peat Land : 20 Mha (MoF, 2016) (1) The Economist eiu at Summary&subtopic=Fact+sheet# Note: Singapore land area is 716 sq km (37% of Indonesia) 1% of it s growth is coming from forestry sector ANDI ROSILALA

4 10 th in the World 4 th in Asia 1 st in Southeast Asia

5 PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION The pulp and paper industry is considered as one of the biggest drivers of deforestation in Indonesia, accounting for roughly 20 percent of deforestation in the 2000s (Baccini et al. 2012, Harris et al. 2012) On 2013, Indonesia announced no deforestation pledge and other sustainability commitments to. end the clearing of natural forest across its entire supply chain in Indonesia, with immediate effect. The newly signed trade agreement with the European Union, the Voluntary Partnership Agreement (VPA), as well as its own Timber Legality Assurance system.

6 PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION Industrial Plantation Forest area (CIFOR, 2015): 1995 : 9 licenses and 1.13 Mha 2013 : 252 licenses and 10 Mha Wood Production of Industrial Plantation Forest (MoI, 2016): 2008 : 20 Mm : 29.8 Mm3 If indeed the area of productive timber plantations reached 10 million hectares in 2013 with a conservative Mean Annual Increment of 15 m3 per hectare per year, this means that Indonesia should have mature standing stock of about 150 million m3 of timber that year. The reported production is significantly lower and calls into question the veracity of forestry statistics ANDI ROSILALA

7 PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION Indonesia s pulp production capacity (CIFOR, 2015): 1988 : metric tons per year 2015 : 9 million metric tons per year If the all mills operate at full capacity, this implies they will consume max 42.3 Mm3 of wood annually. The current wood production is 29.8 Mm3. So, the shortfall is about 12.5 Mm3. Indonesia s National Long Term Forestry Plan envisages that by 2025 timber plantations will cover 14.5 Mha. Means that until 2025, the additional new area will be 4.5 Mha. Whereas, in conservative assumption, to fulfill the gap of 12.5 Mm3, it only needs 1.3 Mha. ANDI ROSILALA

8 RESEARCH QUESTIONS How to modelize Indonesia woodfiber supply for pulp and paper industry dynamically compared to demand side over some decades? What are scenarios and policy recommendations can be proposed to close the gap of supply-demand imbalance?

9 ZOOM OUT OF LAND AREA Source : Global Forest Watch 2016 using GIS ANDI ROSILALA

10 ZOOM OUT OF SPESIFIC PLANTATION AREA Source : Global Forest Watch 2016 using GIS ANDI ROSILALA

11 CHALLENGES TO ADDRESS WOOD SUPPLY FORECAST ANDI ROSILALA

12 SIMPLIFIED INFLUENCE DIAGRAM FOR FORESTRY MODEL Source : System Dynamics Modelling: A Practical Approach", cited from Robert Geoffrey Coyle, ANDI ROSILALA

13 VANCLAYS model XXXXX ANDI ROSILALA

14 AUTHOR FOREST MODEL on STELLA ANDI ROSILALA

15 ASSUMPTIONS & SCENARIOS ANDI ROSILALA

16 VARIABLES AND PARAMETERS (1) ANDI ROSILALA

17 VARIABLES AND PARAMETERS (2) ANDI ROSILALA

18 VOLUME DYNAMIC PER HA PER ROTATION 1: 2: 1: Volume Dy namic Acacia 2: Volume Dy namic Eucaly pt : 2: : 2: Page Years 12:50 AM Tue, Feb 21, 2017

19 TOTAL VOLUME DYNAMIC PER ROTATION SCENARIO 1: BUSINESS AS USUAL 1: 2: 3: 1: Wood Production Acacia 2: Wood Production euca 3: Total Wood Production : 2: 3: : 2: 3: Page Years 12:54 AM Tue, Feb 21, 2017

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21 TOTAL VOLUME DYNAMIC PER ROTATION SCENARIO 2: PEATLAND RESTORATION 1: 2: 3: 1: Wood Production Acacia 2: Wood Production euca 3: Total Wood Production : 2: 3: : 2: 3: Page Years 1:05 AM Tue, Feb 21, 2017

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23 TOTAL VOLUME DYNAMIC PER ROTATION SCENARIO 3: EUCALYPTUS STRATEGY 1: 2: 3: 1: Wood Prod of Acacia 2: Wood Prod of Euca 3: Total Wood Prod : 2: 3: : 2: 3: Page Years 10:49 AM Tue, Feb 21, 2017

24 TOTAL VOLUME DYNAMIC PER ROTATION SCENARIO 3: EUCALYPTUS STRATEGY

25 TOTAL VOLUME DYNAMIC PER ROTATION SCENARIO 4: SILVICULTURE IMPROVEMENT 1: 2: 3: 1: Wood Prod of Acacia 2: Wood Prod of Euca 3: Total Wood Prod : 2: 3: : 2: 3: Page Years 11:01 AM Tue, Feb 21, 2017

26 TOTAL VOLUME DYNAMIC PER ROTATION SCENARIO 4: SILVICULTURE IMPROVEMENT

27 ALL SCENARIOS AND DEMAND

28 Scenario 5 converting 1.3 Mha additional land ANDI ROSILALA

29 ANDI ROSILALA NO NEED TO OPEN NEW AREA

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32 Questions? ANDI ROSILALA