OUTLOOK FOR WOOD FIBER SUPPLY in INDONESIA. Dr. CHRISTIAN BACHHEIMER

Transcription

1 OUTLOOK FOR WOOD FIBER SUPPLY in INDONESIA

2 OUTLINE Flash Back to 2006 Indonesia Fact sheet System Dynamic 101 Assumptions and Scenario Scenario 1,2,3,4 Analysis Conclusions

3 OUTLINE Flash Back to 2006 Indonesia Fact sheet

4 INDONESIA FACT SHEET Land Area 1,900,000 sq km (1), 17,000 islands Population 255 millions (1) 250 regional languages and local dialects (1) GDP 861 Billions USD; 3370 USD per capita (1) Economic growth 5.5 % (1) Forest : up to 30 m Indonesians depends on Forest Forest total area : 91 to 98 m ha (CIFOR WP 92, ppg2, 2012) Forest industrial area : 29 m ha (MoF 2016) Forest Plantation Area : 8 to 10 m ha ( various sources) Forest Acacia/Eucalyptus: 2.5 m ha (MoF 2016 concession data, author) Peat Land : 20 m ha (MoF 2016) (1) The Economist eiu at mary&subtopic=fact+sheet#

5 FLASH BACK to 2006 A 2005 s CIFOR review of all Kalimantan concessions concluded that a short fall up to 8.8 m m3 pa would remained up-coming decade. The focus last 10 years was to increase reliance on plantation wood. Situation in 2016 has not changed significantly as far as wood demand is concerned Pest and diseases has gotten much worse over time. The Revival of Industrial forest Plantations in Indonesia s Kalimantan Provinces CIFOR- working paper Nb 37 - R. Pirard; C. Cossalter

6 INDONESIA FACT SHEET Source CIFOR working paper 92 (2012)

7 CONCESSION OVERVIEW Executive Order President No10/2011 two years moratorium was renewed in July 2015, freezing all issuance of new licenses, and requiring improvement of primary forest governance and peatlands. Added 22.5 m ha given protection status (CIFOR, WP 76, ppg 1, 2011)

8 INDONESIA FACT SHEET Source : Global Forest Watch 2016 using GIS

9 OUTLINE System Dynamic 101 Assumptions and Scenario Scenario 1,2,3,4

10 WOOD SUPPLY FORECAST CHALLENGES Pest and Disease cumulative effect, acidification of peat land with time Peat Land s subsidence Regular and catastrophic fire Reducing yields from rotation to rotation Switch from peat land to non peat land dynamically. Feedback loops : system dynamic is more suitable than stand table concept to estimate future wood supply (Vanclay,2014,p8) Vanclay JK Unsuspected implications arising from assumptions in simulations : insight from recasting a forest growth model in system dynamics

11 SYSTEM DYNAMIC Source : Nested Feedback Loop of Self Regulating Biosphere", cited from Peer Olaf Siebers, University of Nottingham, 2010.

12 VANCLAYS model XXXXX

13 ABI s FOREST GROWTH MODEL on STELLA Model co developed with Andi Rosilala (Gadjah Mada University)

14 ASSUMPTIONS & SCENARIOS Naoto Matsumura, "Yield Prediction for Acacia mangium Plantations in Southeast Asia", Formath Vol. 10 (2011): Son, et.all, (2010), "Stand Yield Table and Commercial Timber Volume of Eucalyptus Pellita and Acacia Mangium Plantations in Indonesia", Journal of Korean for Forest Society Vol. 99 Insect pests and diseases in indonesian forests: an assessment of the major threats, research efforts, and literature". Nair (ed). Cifor, Eucalypt Acacia Regular Fires on Map: The complete report for historical forest fires at 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 are: World Resource Institute and Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) pdf) University of Freiburg ( freiburg.de/manag/cif Ch 8 East Kalimantan.pdf

15 SCENARIO 1 BUSINESS as USUAL Wood fiber output base line 35,721 13,298 Wood fiber output modelised 22, %

16 SCENARIO 2 PEAT land RESTORATION Wood fiber output base line 35,721 14,947 Wood fiber output modelised 20, %

17 SCENARIO 3 EUCALYPTUS STRATEGY Wood fiber output base line 35,721 10,405 Wood fiber output modelised 25, %

18 SCENARIO 4 SILVICULTURE improvement Wood fiber output base line 35,721 8,329 Wood fiber output modelised 27, %

19 DEMAND & Scenarios 1,2,3,4 Wood fiber Demand = 48,990 k m3 pa 17,656 21,598 Wood fiber output modelised Source CIFOR working paper 92 (2012)

20 SCENARIO SYNTHESIS Under any scenarios, shortage of wood supply short term Eucalyptus program are a necessary life saving decision for the Indonesian Pulp Industry but.but requires several rotations for full impact Silviculture & RD are best strategy meanwhile Wood supply cost curve might shift significantly Additional 2 m ha required to meet 48 m m3, 250 k ha each rotation next 4 rotations + 1 m ha.

21 OUTLINE Analysis Conclusions

22 CONCESSION BREAKDOWN

23 WOOD SUPPLY COST CURVE SHIFT

24 CONCLUSIONS SHORT TERM Acacia Plantations on peatlands are no longer sustainable. Industry is bound to be short of millions m3 per annum next decade. Indonesia lack skills in fire management..must fix it (CIFOR, WP 92, 2012,ppg 8). Availability of land on mineral soil for Acacia Eucalyptus is increasingly scarce in Sumatra.

25 CONCLUSIONS LONG TERM Existing licenses must be exploited, land must be fully utilized. Need to plant 2 m ha. Eucalyptus swap on mineral soil will require several rotations for the impact to be significant. Non-native plantation growth might develop pest and disease with time too (Wingfield, & al, 2011). Wood supply costs curve adverse shift

26 CONCLUSIONS SHORT TERM Acacia Plantations on peatlands are no longer sustainable. Industry is bound to be short of millions m3 per annum next decade. Indonesia lack skills in fire management.. must fix it (CIFOR, WP 92, 2012,ppg 8). Availability of land on mineral soil for Acacia Eucalyptus is increasingly scarce in Sumatra. LONG TERM Existing licenses must be exploited, land must be fully utilized. Need to plant 2 m ha. Eucalyptus swap on mineral soil will require several rotations for the impact to be significant. Non-native plantation growth might develop pest and disease with time too (Wingfield, & al, 2011). Wood supply costs curve adverse shift

27 QUESTIONS?

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29 INDONESIA FACT SHEET Source : FAO (2010) Source : South East Asia Sub Regional Report Asia pacific Forestry outlook Study III to 2020

30 FORESTRY TIME LINE 1990 to 1998 Focus switch away from plywood toward the Pulp & paper industry. Pulp output went up from 600 k tons in 1988 to 6.1 m tons today (1) Post 1998 and era reformasi Autonomy laws allocate forests management to provincial and district level (CIFOR 92, ppg 42) Increase deforestration as a result of regional revenue optimization, and explosion of corruption 2003 Require 32 m M3 wood to support full installed pulp capacity Out of 14 producer, 6 control 90 % of the capacity 2005 Government allocated 5.4 m ha land forest to 40 companies HTI Hutan Tanaman Industri (CIFOR 37, 2006, ppg1) 9 companies access to about 50% of the 5.4 m Ha (CIFOR 37, 2006, ppg2) 2006 APRIL announced 326,000 Ha concession + 380,087 ha access to partner concessions. Committed to meet by % sourcing from plantations (CIFOR 37, 2006, ppg1) 2009 APRIL announced zero deforestration policy 2013 Feb 13 th 2013, APP announce zero deforestration policy 2011 Inpres No10/2011 moratorium 2013 InPres No6/2013 extend No10/ InPres No8/2015 moratorium includes peat land concession, cancellation of existing concession which has not been developed 2016 Per Pres No1/ ,000 ha peat land to be restored immediately, (WB, Feb 2016, page 9), and 2 m ha to be restored by 2020 (pasal 4) Mapping of area falling under InPres No8/2015 to start implementation, and unused peat license will be cancelled. The Revival of Industrial forest Plantations in Indonesia s Kalimantan Provinces CIFOR working paper Nb 37 R. Pirard; C. Cossalter The Context of REDD + in Indonesia, CIFOR WP 92, 2012, Indrarto GB & als

31 OUTLINE Area of forest and other wooded land in Southeast Asia in 2010 and rate of change in forest area Source : FAO (2010)

32 WOOD FIBER DEMAND ESTIMATES

33 WOOD CHIPS EXPORT TRENDS

34 2.6 m ha burned Sumatra 870,000 ha Kalimantan 1,287,000 ha Forestry concessions lost 233,414 ha 100,000 fire spots at the peak 16 b USD cost to Indonesia Fire fighting cost 197 m USD only Fire status Peat land accounted for about 1/3 of the area burned, but are responsible for the vast majority of the haze and CO2 emissions from the fire (WB, Feb 2016) October 23th 2015 moratorium on peat land concession, and cancellation of all existing concession which has not been developed (WB, p8, Feb 2016). World Bank, Cost of Fire An Economic Analysis of Indonesia 2015 fire crisis February 2016

35 OUTLINE Understanding forest resource statistics

36 Forest area in Southeast Asia countries, OUTLINE Source : FAO (2010)

37 OUTLINE Extent of forest area by designation in Southeast Asia countries in 2010 Source : FAO (2010)