Climate change, biodiversity and ecosystems

Transcription

1 Climate change, biodiversity and ecosystems Carlos A. Joly Botany Department/IB & PhD Program in Environment & Society - NEPAM BIOTA/FAPESP PROGRAM

2 Terrestrial ecosystems of Latin America and the Caribbean as recognized by Josse et al (2003).

3 28 Marine Ecosystems (Chatman, 2007) 70 Biogeographical Provinces (Morrone, 2001)

4 Plants Birds Amphibians Mammals Reptiles Total number of species and endemism levels in Latin America

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6 Pre and Post Colombo ethnic and cultural diversity of Latin America years of human occupation

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10 Hymenaea courbaril - Jatobá 720ppm 360ppm ppm CO ppm CO 2 Aidar, Buckeridge et al Effects of CO 2 enrichment on the development of seedlings of Hymenaea courbaril L. (jatoba).

11 Importance of biological collections for data from the last 150 years. Change in 15 N isotope fingerprint due to pollution Change in stomata index due to increase in CO 2

12 In the Cerrado biome global warming will push the present area of occurrence, and the diversity centre, to the southeast were suitable areas are aklready occupied by. More then 40% of the species of trees will be extinct in Using GARP. Present area with the higher diversity of species of trees Area with the higher diversity of species of trees in the optimistic scenario Area with the higher diversity of species of trees in the pessimistic scenario

13 Based in Colombo 2007 A - 30% - 65% B C Atlantic Forest: A) present occurrence; B) occurrence in 2050 with an optimistic scenario; C) occurrence in 2050 with a pessimistic scenario. Using GARP.

14 In the NE the Atlantic Forest tends to disappear due to a increase in temperature coupled with a reduction in rainfall In the South the Araucaria forest tends to disappear due to increase in temperature.

15 Gênero Brachycephalus Atual Possible habitat loss in the southern part of its distribution with population decline and extinction risk. Using GARP Futuro=2xCO2 Courtesy Célio Haddad

16 TEST MODELLING TOOLS Test & improve existing tools, such as GARP, MaxEnt, BIOCLIM, SVM, ENFA, DIVA-GIS, multiple discriminant analysis, logistic regression, neural networks, and develop new modeling tools. Philips et al 2006

17 Warming Experiments (OTC) Exotic species of beetles increase rapidly compared with native species Courtesy Mary Kalin Arroyo

18 The role of Oceanic Plankton CO 2 Light Nutrirents Phytoplankton Zooplankton Bacteria Detritus Carbon Sequestration Courtesy Jean Valentin

19 Warming Possible consequences of Global Warming to Oceanic Plankton Change in biological cycles Predator x Prey relations Plâncton Courtesy Jean Valentin Larva de peixe Possible increase in frequency of blooms of toxic planktonic dinoflagellates responsible for paralytic shellfish poisoning. Lilly et al Alexandrium spp

20 Plankton monitoring in the Atlantic

21 The results allowed the development of the following early warning system: Early warning systems Environmental instability caused by the combination of fire, deforestation and the ENSO phenomena (El Nino South Oscillation) can be the responsible for increases of dry periods in the Amazonian region. Many Amazon forests grow in a seasonal "desert", where there is little rainfall for 3 to 6 months each year. They remain green and physiologically active during these dry seasons by absorbing soil moisture from depths beyond 8 meters. There is a limit to the forests' capacity to avoid drought by absorbing deep soil moisture. During the 1997/98 El Niño episode, one third of the forests in the Brazilian Amazon were severely desiccated, and large areas of forest caught fire. The Rainfall exclusion Experiment from LBA was carried out to establish the threshold of drought tolerance. Excluding >50% of annual rainfall from a one hectare forest plot, comparing it with another one hectare forest plot without rainfall exclusion. Plots are isolated from surrounding soil and forest by a 1.2-meter trench; rainfall excluded using six thousand 3 x 0.5 m panels left in place during the rainiest 4 months of the year.

22 A geographic information system soil water balance model, called RisQue (Risco de Queimada Fire Risk) for the Amazon basin. RisQue features a map of maximum plant-available soil water (PAWmax) developed using 1565 soil texture profiles and empirical relationships between soil texture and critical soil water parameters. PAW is depleted by monthly evapotranspiration (ET) fields estimated from 266 meteorological stations. Field measurements and experimental forest fires indicate that soil moisture depletion below 25% PAWmax corresponds to a reduction in leaf area index of approximately 25%, increasing forest flammability. Hence, approximately one-third of Amazon forests became susceptible to fire during the 2001 ENSO period. Nepstad et al. 2004

23 Atlantic Rain Forest Rosado, Aidar et al 2008

24 Remote sensing and modeling techniques are a promising field for Arthropod (mosquitoes, flies, ticks, blood-sucking bugs), keeping in mind that the natural history of Arthropod-borne diseases is complex, and the interplay of climate, ecology, vector biology, and many other factors defies simplistic analysis. After a century of absence, Vibrio cholerae -- the microbe responsible for cholera -- invaded the Western Hemisphere by way of Peru in late January While many aspects of cholera are well known, such as its routes of transmission, diagnosis, pathophysiology, and treatment, how cholera arises in continents where the disease has previously been unreported, and where the reservoir of cholera microbes resides between epidemics, remains poorly understood. Future cholera epidemics may be averted through an early warning system that uses marine biology, satellite imagery, and clinical surveillance. Seas et al, 2000.

25 Early warning invasive species lycaspis brimblecombei Precip Eucalyptus sp., Brazil

26 250 Number of invaders All spp. Worst spp. Source of original data Global Invasive Species Data Base Countries Courtesy Mary Kalin Arroyo

27 SCENARIOS Sea level rise impacts 2050 LAC Infrastructure development

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30 Drivers of change of natural ecosystems Human Activity Habitat Destruction Over exploitation Invasive species Pollutants Climatic Change Trop Rain Forest Trop Dry forest Araucaria forest Cerrado Cloud forest Semiarid Region Aquatic (fresh) Marine Islands Impact: Time of impact: Large Medium Low Current Future Adapted from R. Dirzo

31 Synergy of Drivers

32 Regional risk of extinction of many species of native Meliponini

33 Ecosystems Biosphere-Atmosphere Coupling Hydrology Hydrochemistry Carbon, nitrogen & water fluxes Natural Ecosystems Land use changes Courtesy Humberto R. Rocha Ecophysiology, Isotopy Phytossociology Biometry (C stocks) Photosynthesis Leaf metabolism C & N Plant-Atmosphere Coupling Water balance

34 Courtesy Humberto R. Rocha Cerrado sensu stricto Looses C in dry season Sink of C in wet season CO2 flux (NEE) daily mean (kg C ha -1 day -1 ), over Cerrado s.s (Gleba Pé de Gigante, from October 2000 to November Source: Rocha et al. (2002).

35 Flux Tower sites Manaus (Inpa) Santarem, Flona Tapajós USP, UCI, Suny Ilha do Bananal, TO USP, UFT JiParaná, RO (Inpa, Unir) Sinop, MT (Inpa,UFMT) Courtesy Humberto R. Rocha

36 Super sites USP Embrapa Unicamp Inst Botanica Esalq/Usp Cena/Usp DAEE/SP Sugar cane Eucaliptus 1. Sta Rita Passa Quatro 2. Ubatuba/SLParaitinga Cerrado sensu stricto Courtesy Humberto R. Rocha Atlantic Rain Forest

37 BIODIVERSITY & ECOSYSTEMS Courtesy Mary Kalin Arroyo

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39 Conceptual framework for impacts of landuse change on pollination services, incorporating market-based forces and policies, in addition to the biology of the organisms involved Kremen et al 2007.

40 Leopoldo M Coutinho Earth is getting to the tipping point of irreversible and possibly catastrophic changes, if the rhythmus of species extinction is not reduced significantly.

41 Integrated interdisciplinary approach Requires: a) Research in all the basic biological disciplines - ranging from molecular genetics, through systematic (alpha to molecular, genomic & metagenomic), population, ecosystem structure and functioning, phylogeny and phylogeography. b) Research in areas such as Conservation Biology, Landscape Ecology, Impacts of Climate Change, Complex systems, Ecological Economics and Environmental ethics.

42 Climate Develop and improve Regional Scenarios Land use Topography Hydrology Data on Environment Rio Mogi Guaçu 0 Escala Gráfica 25 Kilometross 50 Soils

43 INVENTORIES AUTOECOLOGY ECOPHYSIOLOGY ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Biological Data POPULATION ECOLOGY ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING DYNAMICS & CYCLING

44 History of land use changes Demography Urbanization Tendencies Socioeconomic Data Human Dimensions Environmental Changes Social Science Data Political & Institutional Aspects

45 Data on Environment Integrated interdisciplinary research approach Biological Data Social Science Data

46 POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN BIODIVERSITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRAZIL.

47 MUITO OBRIGADO!