Forestry Bioenergy in the Southeast United States: Scenario Modeling and Geodesign

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1 Forestry Bioenergy in the Southeast United States: Scenario Modeling and Geodesign 2015 Geodesign Summit, January 23, 2015 Presenter/Author: Alison L. Smith, Co-Authors: Jason Evans, Jon Calabria 1 photo credit: Tiffany Williams Woods

2 B a c k g r o u n d Biomass any organic, i.e. decomposable, matter derived from plants or animals available on a renewable basis. Biomass includes wood and agricultural crops, herbaceous and woody energy crops, municipal organic wastes as well as manure. Bioenergy is energy derived from the conversion of biomass where biomass may be used directly as fuel, or processed into liquids and gases Source: Accessed January 22, 2015

Source: http://bioenergycrops.com/blog/2013/09/03/8-reasons-to-invest-on-biomass-pellets-in-developing-countries/ Accessed January 22, 2015 B a c k g r o u n d The southeast U.S. has recently emerged as a leading global supplier for biomass energy.

3 Source: Accessed January 22, 2015 B a c k g r o u n d The southeast U.S. has recently emerged as a leading global supplier for biomass energy. Anticipated growth in available solid biomass supply from the various sourcing regions in the import scenario from 2010 to For comparison: 1 million tonnes of wood pellets equals about 18 PJ. Source: IEA BIOENERGY(2011)

4 B a c k g r o u n d More than 98% of these exports were delivered to Europe, and 99% originated from ports in the southeastern and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the country. Why the southeast U.S.? Supply Shipping costs Accessed January 22, 2015

5 R a p i d g e o - s p a t i a l r i s k a s s e s s m e n t f o r b i o d i v e r s i t y a n d w i l d l i f e Final Report completed December 2013

P r o j e c t S i t e s Of the 89 existing and proposed facilities in the Southeast the following 6 were chosen to provide a wide crosssection of land cover types, biodiversity and

6 P r o j e c t S i t e s Of the 89 existing and proposed facilities in the Southeast the following 6 were chosen to provide a wide crosssection of land cover types, biodiversity and biomass sourcing practices. 1. Georgia Biomass, LLC 2. Enviva Pellets Ahoskie 3. Piedmont Green Power 4. South Boston Energy 5. Carolina Wood Pellets 6. Virginia Hybrid Energy Center

7 P r o j e c t A p p r o a c h Develop spatially-explicit biomass sourcing models Transportation Biomass competition Agronomic suitability for pine plantation forestry Maxent machine learning model Identify risks to extant forest habitats and selected indicator species due to pine forestry conversion and/or biomass harvest Policy suggestions for mitigating forest biodiversity risks associated with biomass energy feedstock sourcing and harvest practices 7

8 M o d e l i n g P r o c e s s Land cover and species data: USGS National Gap Analysis Program (GAP) Competition analysis based on transport distance and demands of other facilities in woodshed Conservation lands, row crops, and developed lands excluded from all scenarios Other masks based on policy screens (pastures, upland natural forests, wetlands forests) Multiple objective land allocation applied in IDRISI Selva GIS platform An advanced GIS workflow was developed for scenario modeling of six woody biomass facilities to analyze multiple scenario screens which simulate sourcing for each facility under different sets of constraints. 8

9 Map Matrix

10 Map Matrix

11 Case Study: Georgia Biomass, LLC 750,000 Mg/yr wood pellet production Sources 100% yellow pine

12 75- m i l e N e t w o r k T r a v e l D i s t a n c e a n d W o o d s h e d D e l i n e a t i o n

13 G A P L a n d C o v e r a n d C o n s e r v a t i o n L a n d s

14 Travel Network Analysis & Locations of Competing Bioenergy and Pulp Mill Facilities

15 Competition Demand Strength Analysis, as Annual dry Mg / Network Travel Mile

16 M a x i m u m E n t r o p y S u i t a b i l i t y M o d e l f o r P i n e P l a n t a t i o n

17 M u l t i p l e C r i t e r i a E v a l u a t i o n ( I D R I S I S e l v a ) Conservation Mask Sourcing Screens

18 Composite Model of Pine Plantation Only (PO) Sourcing Model Screen

19 Composite Model of Pine & Disturbed, No Pasture (PNP) Sourcing Model Screen

20 Composite Model of Pine, Disturbed & Pasture Risk Composite Sourcing Model Screen

21 Composite Model of Upland Forest, No Pasture Risk Composite Sourcing Model

22 Composite Model of Upland Forest & Pasture Risk Composite Sourcing Model Screen

23 Composite Plantation Pine Conversion Risk for Natural Forest Stands

24 Georgia Biomass: GAP Ecosystem Overlays under No Protection Scenario GAP Ecosystem Hectares Acres Sourcing % Atlantic Coastal Plain Fall-line Sandhills Longleaf Pine Woodland - Offsite Hardwood % Atlantic Coastal Plain Dry and Dry-Mesic Oak Forest 629 1, % Atlantic Coastal Plain Fall-line Sandhills Longleaf Pine Woodland - Open Understory % Atlantic Coastal Plain Southern Wet Pine Savanna and Flatwoods 464 1, % Atlantic Coastal Plain Upland Longleaf Pine Woodland 15,202 37, % East Gulf Coastal Plain Interior Upland Longleaf Pine Woodland - Loblolly Modifier 2,775 6, % East Gulf Coastal Plain Interior Upland Longleaf Pine Woodland - Open Understory Modifier 15,664 38, % Southern Atlantic Coastal Plain Mesic Hardwood Forest % Southern Coastal Plain Dry Upland Hardwood Forest 851 2, % Southern Coastal Plain Hydric Hammock 5,173 12, % Southern Coastal Plain Oak Dome and Hammock 1,778 4, % West Gulf Coastal Plain Upland Longleaf Pine Forest and Woodland 619 1, % Deciduous Plantations 3,140 7, % Disturbed/Successional - Grass/Forb Regeneration 13,128 32, % Disturbed/Successional - Shrub Regeneration 15,933 39, % Evergreen Plantation or Managed Pine 83, , % Harvested Forest - Grass/Forb Regeneration 12,728 31, % Harvested Forest-Shrub Regeneration 7,922 19, % ~86,000 acres of natural softwood stands at high risk ~21,000 acres of natural hardwood stands at high risk ~337,000 acres in plantation or disturbed ~76% of area demand in plantation/disturbed The current land cover base for plantation pine forestry in this facility s woodshed appears sufficient for meeting long-term softwood demands if biomass sustainability criteria that prohibit natural forest stand conversion are adopted. Final Report Executive Summary, pg 7. 24

F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n Download Final Report here: http://www.nwf.

25 F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n Download Final Report here:

A c k n o w l e d g e m e n t s This study was commissioned by the National Wildlife Federation and Southern Environmental Law Center with funds provided by Doris Duke

Evans (UGA Carl Vinson Institute of Government, Environmental Policy Program), Janaki Alavalapati (Virginia Tech University, Department of Forest Resources and Environmental

Smith (UGA College of Environment and Design), Miguel Acevedo (University of Florida, Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation), Chris Stebbins (UGA College of

26 A c k n o w l e d g e m e n t s This study was commissioned by the National Wildlife Federation and Southern Environmental Law Center with funds provided by Doris Duke Charitable Foundation. Project Team: Contributing Authors: Jason M. Evans (UGA Carl Vinson Institute of Government, Environmental Policy Program), Janaki Alavalapati (Virginia Tech University, Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation), Jon Calabria (UGA College of Environment and Design), Robert Fletcher (University of Florida, Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation), Alison L. Smith (UGA College of Environment and Design), Miguel Acevedo (University of Florida, Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation), Chris Stebbins (UGA College of Environment and Design), Thakur Upadhyay (Virginia Tech University, Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation),; Divya Vasudev (University of Florida, Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation) Project Stewards: F.G. Courtney-Beauregard (NWF), Julie Sibbing (NWF), Ben Larson (NWF)

Forestry Bioenergy in the Southeast United States: Implications for Wildlife Habitat and Biodiversity

Forestry Bioenergy in the Southeast United States: Implications for Wildlife Habitat and Biodiversity Final Report DRAFT December 5, 2013 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This study was commissioned by the National Wildlife