In the eye of the beholder. Citizens perceptions of the German party system
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- Wilfrid Dixon
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1 . Citizens perceptions of the German party system ASGP Annual Conference, 29 May 2007
2 Outline arzheimer/partyspace.pdf
3 A changing party system? 1980s: Polarised Two-bloc party system (Rudzio 2006) 1990s: Not much change in the West Regional 3-party-system in the East The setting in the mid-1990s: (Cautious) welfare-state retrenchment by CDU/CSU/ government Lafontaine endorses left-populist course Pragmatists struggle to control green party
4 A changing party system? 1980s: Polarised Two-bloc party system (Rudzio 2006) 1990s: Not much change in the West Regional 3-party-system in the East The setting in the mid-1990s: (Cautious) welfare-state retrenchment by CDU/CSU/ government Lafontaine endorses left-populist course Pragmatists struggle to control green party But in 1997/98... invents/copies Neue Mitte Majority within the Green Party willing to form coalition very seriously considers coalitions at Land level
5 Key events Kohl candidate for 98 election Schröder nominated/green Party Conference BTW coalition in MVP Some reform measures repealed CDU campaign against citizenship law launched CDU wins Hessen election Lafontaine resigns/germany involved in Kosovo bombings Threshold for contributions lowered Green conflict over Kosovo German soldiers in Kosovo : Electoral losses (Land, municipalities) CDU funding scandal emerges 1997m1 1998m1 1999m1 2000m1
6 Key events Schäubele involved in scandal Schäubele resigns/cdu fined Green Card initiative Gysi/Bisky step down; Merkel CDU leader (Much) lower tax rates from Jan Fuel price crisis begins Leitkultur debate More than 4 mill. unemployed; /CDU clash DM deal between Kohl and persecutor Westerwelle leader; government: private pension schemes helps to establish Red/Green minority government in Berlin Schill Party in Hamburg: 19 per cent / coalition in Berlin Troops deployed to Afghanistan, vote of confidence New security laws apply Stoiber nominated All nuclear powerplants to be shut down by 2021 controversy Conflict over Iraq, Floodings BTW2002/Möllemanns fall from grace Schröder re-elected, defends austerity course Co-operation with CDU/ on labour market reforms begins 2000m1 2001m1 2002m1 2003m1
7 Key events New losses at Land level Agenda 2010 launched Mass demonstrations against Agenda conference endorses Agenda Schröder: 2006 election with Fischer; CSU triumph Extra charges for medical treatment introduced Schröder steps down as leader Köhler elected Federal President 4.4 million unemployed Hartz IV law in force; WASG founded More than 5 million unemployed Grand Coalition in S-H loses NRW, Schröder calls for early elections Co-operation between and WASG begins Common CDU/CSU/ platform showcased BTW 2005 Merkel elected 2003m1 2004m1 2005m1 2006m1
8 Summary Bourgeois bloc played with populism and equidistance CDU too busy for debate on program By and large kept/radicalised traditional position Moved towards Left Bloc in many ways But: merger with WASG, campaigns against neoliberal reform policies Left Bloc Went boldly where Kohl government did not dare tread (armed forces, The most significant reform of the German welfare state in recent decades (Kemmerling und Bruttel 2006: 108)) Unprecedented move of /Greens to the centre?
9 Summary Bourgeois bloc played with populism and equidistance CDU too busy for debate on program By and large kept/radicalised traditional position Moved towards Left Bloc in many ways But: merger with WASG, campaigns against neoliberal reform policies Left Bloc Went boldly where Kohl government did not dare tread (armed forces, The most significant reform of the German welfare state in recent decades (Kemmerling und Bruttel 2006: 108)) Unprecedented move of /Greens to the centre? Yet kept left on highly symbolic issues
10 Summary Bourgeois bloc played with populism and equidistance CDU too busy for debate on program By and large kept/radicalised traditional position Moved towards Left Bloc in many ways But: merger with WASG, campaigns against neoliberal reform policies Left Bloc Went boldly where Kohl government did not dare tread (armed forces, The most significant reform of the German welfare state in recent decades (Kemmerling und Bruttel 2006: 108)) Unprecedented move of /Greens to the centre? Yet kept left on highly symbolic issues Citizenship Immigration/Right-wing extremism
11 Impact on the public s views? /Greens moved a good deal but...
12 Impact on the public s views? /Greens moved a good deal but... Parties (try to) manipulate their public images ( Soziale Gerechtigkeit ) Party images notoriously sticky Hard policy changes could be off-set by symbolic/soft policy continuity
13 Research Question Have the political changes and events affected the public s perceptions on the German Party system between 1997 and 2005?
14 Research Question Have the political changes and events affected the public s perceptions on the German Party system between 1997 and 2005? Configuration & Distances (Blocs/Camps)? East-West differences?
15 Why does it matter? Legitimacy
16 Why does it matter? Legitimacy Electoral behaviour & outcomes Tactical reasons Parties waltzing before a blind audience / able to get away with everything? New parties/competition
17 Expectations 1. Low number of dimensions (i.e. 2) Pappi (1990) Warwick (2002) 2. Two bloc structure intact (especially during campaigns) 3. But at least some evidence for convergence 4. closer to Left Bloc in the East 5. (Cognitively mobilised segment of population should have clearer view of what s going on)
18 An ideal world... Direct comparisons between parties Let respondents compare 6 5 = 15 pairs of 2 parties and record distances (Let respondents rate each party on a number of well specified scales) (Possibly provide well-defined anchor-points) Reconstruct cognitive map of party system from distances by scaling methods Incorporate ratings and anchor points to ease interpretation
19 Reality: Thermometer-type (1-11) ratings for six relevant parties available (monthly Politbarometer series, n= )
20
21 Reality: Thermometer-type (1-11) ratings for six relevant parties available (monthly Politbarometer series, n= ) We do not know which features/dimensions citizens employ But correlations between ratings are informative If parties x and y are very similar: highly positively correlated ratings If parties x and y are not very similar: low correlations approaching zero If parties x and y are very dissimilar: highly negatively correlated ratings Interpret correlations as measures for perceived distances Apply MDS (classical metric scaling) to reconstruct cognitive map of party system
22 Scaling Six parties could differ on up to five dimensions 15 unique distances could be embedded into five-dimensional space Two dimensional space much more likely (and manageable) MDS: 1. Finds two-dimensional graph of party system 2. So that distances between parties match perceived distances 3. As closely as possible (Aggregate data over quarters)
23 s No absolute point of reference, i.e. all parties could move to the right Focus on configuration and distances Infinite number of solutions fit equally well Establish convention to make configurations for different time-points comparable Shift so that is at [0,0] Rotate so that CDU is on the x-axis and to the right of If necessary, reflect at x-axis so that is below and CDU
24 The German Partystem 1997, Q1 BC CDUCSU West
25 The German Partystem 1997, Q1 BC CDUCSU West CDU CSU BC East
26 The German Partystem 1997, Q1 BC CDUCSU West CDU CSU BC East West: two blocs, clearly separate East: More dispersion much closer to other left
27 The German Partystem 1997, Q West East
28 The German Partystem 1997, Q1 BC CDUCSU West CDU CSU BC East West: two blocs, clearly separate East: More dispersion much closer to other left How does this square with experts views (Benoit/Laver 2006)?
29 Experts views Grüne CDU/CSU
30 Experts views Grüne adj. r2=0.99 CDU/CSU adj. r2=
31 Experts views Grüne adj. r2=0.99 CDU/CSU adj. r2= the Median party on general, economic and social policy left/right axes
32 Why the differences? Data collected 2003 six years later CDU/CSU & East/West combined Experts less susceptible to media effects and partisan cues (?) Explicitly based on eight dimensions (Taxes vs. Spending, Social, Environment, Decentralisation, EU-Peacekeeping, -Accountability and -Authority, Immigration) not necessarily relevant for citizens (or experts!)
33 The German Partystem 1997, Q1 adj. r2=0.96 BC CDUCSU adj. r2=0.88 CDU BC CSU West East Embedding of experts global left-right assessment fits well
34 The German Partystem 1997, Q1 adj. r2=0.96 BC CDUCSU adj. r2=0.88 CDU BC CSU West East Embedding of experts global left-right assessment fits well Other criteria/features relevant than just policy Emotions/identities Performance
35 The German Partystem 1997, Q1 adj. r2=0.96 BC CDUCSU adj. r2=0.88 CDU BC CSU West East Embedding of experts global left-right assessment fits well Other criteria/features relevant than just policy Emotions/identities Performance East-West differences
36 West Germany BC CDUCSU 1997Q1
37 West Germany BC CDU CSU 1997Q2
38 West Germany BC CDU CSU 1997Q3
39 West Germany BCDU CSU 1997Q4
40 West Germany CDU BC CSU 1998Q1
41 West Germany CDU BC CSU 1998Q2
42 West Germany CDU BC CSU 1998Q3
43 West Germany BCDUCSU 1998Q4
44 West Germany CDU BC CSU 1999Q1
45 West Germany CDU BC CSU 1999Q2
46 West Germany CDU CSU BC 1999Q3
47 West Germany CDU BC CSU 1999Q4
48 West Germany CSU BC CDU 2000Q1
49 West Germany BC CDUCSU 2000Q2
50 West Germany BC CSU CDU 2000Q3
51 West Germany BCDU CSU 2000Q4
52 West Germany BC CDU CSU 2001Q1
53 West Germany CDU BC CSU 2001Q2
54 West Germany BC CDUCSU 2001Q3
55 West Germany CDU BC CSU 2001Q4
56 West Germany BC CDU CSU 2002Q1
57 West Germany CDU BC CSU 2002Q2
58 West Germany BC CDU CSU 2002Q3
59 West Germany CDU BC CSU 2002Q4
60 West Germany CDU BC CSU 2003Q1
61 West Germany CDU BC CSU 2003Q2
62 West Germany CDU BCCSU 2003Q3
63 West Germany CDU BC CSU 2003Q4
64 West Germany CDU BC CSU 2004Q1
65 West Germany CDU BCCSU 2004Q2
66 West Germany CDU BC CSU 2004Q3
67 West Germany CDU BC CSU 2004Q4
68 West Germany CDU BCCSU 2005Q1
69 West Germany CDU BCCSU 2005Q2
70 West Germany CDU BC CSU 2005Q3
71 West Germany CDU BC CSU 2005Q4
72 West Germany Greens rather far apart from and surprisingly close to in 98Q2, 99Q3; left parties move quite a bit From 2002Q4 on, almost identical positions for Greens and not equidistant, yet often closer to than CDU/CSU CDU moves toward from mid-/late 2003 Even in 2005Q4 and Greens surprisingly close, bourgeois camp definitively split
73 East Germany CDU CSU BC 1997Q1
74 East Germany CDU CSU BC 1997Q2
75 East Germany CSU CDU BC 1997Q3
76 East Germany CDU BC CSU 1997Q4
77 East Germany CDU CSU BC 1998Q1
78 East Germany CDU CSU 1998Q2 BC
79 East Germany CSU BCCDU 1998Q3
80 East Germany CDU CSU BC 1998Q4
81 East Germany BC CDU CSU 1999Q1
82 East Germany CDU BCCSU 1999Q2
83 East Germany BC CDU CSU 1999Q3
84 East Germany CSU BC CDU 1999Q4
85 East Germany BC CDU CSU 2000Q1
86 East Germany CDU BC CSU 2000Q2
87 East Germany BC CDU CSU 2000Q3
88 East Germany CDU BC CSU 2000Q4
89 East Germany BCDU CSU 2001Q1
90 East Germany CDU BC CSU 2001Q2
91 East Germany CDU BCCSU 2001Q3
92 East Germany CDU BC CSU 2001Q4
93 East Germany CDU BC CSU 2002Q1
94 East Germany CDU BC CSU 2002Q2
95 East Germany CDU BC CSU 2002Q3
96 East Germany CDU BCCSU 2002Q4
97 East Germany CDU CSU BC 2003Q1
98 East Germany CDU CSU BC 2003Q2
99 East Germany CDU CSU BC 2003Q3
100 East Germany CDU CSU BC 2003Q4
101 East Germany CDU BCCSU 2004Q1
102 East Germany CDU BCCSU 2004Q2
103 East Germany CDU BCCSU 2004Q3
104 East Germany CDU BCCSU 2004Q4
105 East Germany CDU BC CSU 2005Q1
106 East Germany CDU BC CSU 2005Q2
107 East Germany CDU BC CSU 2005Q3
108 East Germany CDU BC CSU 2005Q4
109 East Germany closer to than Greens before 1999; left parties move a lot and Greens very close from 1999, structure now clearly resembles Western set-up CDU moves closer to from mid-/late 2003 Polarising effect of 2002 and 2005 elections Bourgeois camp somewhat split in late 2005
110 Distance between /CDU -CDU BTW BTW Hartz IV BTW 1996m1 1998m1 2000m1 2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 West East
111 Distance between /Greens -Greens BTW Confidence V. BTW BTW 1996m1 1998m1 2000m1 2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 West East
112 Distance between / BTW 1996m1 1998m1 2000m1 2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 Confidence V. BTW Hartz IV BTW West East
113 Variation within Right Camp Radius RC BTW Westerwelle leader BTW Hartz IV BTW 1996m1 1998m1 2000m1 2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 West East
114 Distance between /Right Camp -RC BTW 1996m1 1998m1 2000m1 2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 Confidence V. BTW Hartz IV BTW West East
115 Plus ça change, plus c est la même chose? Major policy and coalition changes do affect citizens perceptions of the party system
116 Plus ça change, plus c est la même chose? Major policy and coalition changes do affect citizens perceptions of the party system Hartz-Cooperation reduced -CDU distance to 60 per cent of its maximum moved closer to after MVP & Berlin coalitions Truce within Red/Green coalition from summer 2002 shaped citizens perceptions Much more divergence in Right Camp in the 2005 election s aftermath
117 Plus ça change, plus c est la même chose? Major policy and coalition changes do affect citizens perceptions of the party system Hartz-Cooperation reduced -CDU distance to 60 per cent of its maximum moved closer to after MVP & Berlin coalitions Truce within Red/Green coalition from summer 2002 shaped citizens perceptions Much more divergence in Right Camp in the 2005 election s aftermath Once again: Voters no fools
118 Plus ça change, plus c est la même chose? But...
119 Plus ça change, plus c est la même chose? But... Parties (media?) still able to emphasise differences during campaigns Even during Hartz-Cooperation, and CDU quite far apart Two blocs + -structure as obvious in 2005 as in 1997 Perception of image in the East now closer to Western pattern
120 Plus ça change, plus c est la même chose? But... Parties (media?) still able to emphasise differences during campaigns Even during Hartz-Cooperation, and CDU quite far apart Two blocs + -structure as obvious in 2005 as in 1997 Perception of image in the East now closer to Western pattern Political turmoils of the last years had little lasting impact on citizens
121 Where do we go from here? 1. Impact of Grand Coalition? data
122 Where do we go from here? 1. Impact of Grand Coalition? data 2. Subgroups and subnational n
123 Where do we go from here? 1. Impact of Grand Coalition? data 2. Subgroups and subnational n 3. What makes parties similar/dissimilar collect data
124 Where do we go from here? 1. Impact of Grand Coalition? data 2. Subgroups and subnational n 3. What makes parties similar/dissimilar collect data 4. Combine with media data data (?)
125 Where do we go from here? 1. Impact of Grand Coalition? data 2. Subgroups and subnational n 3. What makes parties similar/dissimilar collect data 4. Combine with media data data (?) arzheimer/partyspace.pdf
126 Bibliography I Downs, Anthony (1957): An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York, Harper. Hinich, Melvin J. und Michael C. Munger (1994): Ideology and the Theory of Political Choice. Ann Arbor, The University of Michigan Press. Kemmerling, Achim und Oliver Bruttel (2006): New politics in German labour market policy? The implications of the recent Hartz reforms for the German welfare state, in: West European Politics 29, Heft 1, S Key, V.[ladimer] O.[rlando] und Milton C. Cummings (1966): The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting, Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. Literatur Technical information
127 Bibliography II Pappi, Franz Urban (1990): Die Republikaner im Parteiensystem der Bundesrepublik. Protesterscheinung oder politische Alternative?, in: Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte 40, Heft B 21, S Rudzio, Wolfgang (2006): Das politische System der Bundesrepublik, 6. Auflage. Opladen, vs Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. Sanders, Arthur (1988): The Meaning of Party Images, in: The Western Political Quarterly 41, S Scarbrough, Elinor (1984): Ideology and Voting. An Exploratory Study. Oxford, Clarendon Press. Warwick, Paul V. (2002): Toward a Common Dimensionality in West European Policy Spaces, in: Party Politics 8, S Literatur Technical information
128 How to convert Pearson correlations into distances[0,1]? Literatur Technical information d = 1 r (1)
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