Climate Change What should I believe? July 20, 2015 James R. Brown, PG EPA Region 6 Water Quality Protection Division

Transcription

1 Climate Change What should I believe? July 20, 2015 James R. Brown, PG EPA Region 6 Water Quality Protection Division brown.jamesr@epa.gov

2 Disclaimer This presentation was not peer reviewed or approved for publication. It is an informative presentation intended to educate the public. The contents of this presentation do not necessarily reflects the views and policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names, commercial productions, corporations or publications constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.

3 What is Climate? The last meeting: Texas 27, Aggies : Texas In the last 30 years: Ave Pts Texas 25.8; Texas A&M 22.6 W 15/15 each Road Wins 7 each Top 25 : Texas 19; Texas A&M 15

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5 In the U.S. climate change poses three core national security threats: global instability, military infrastructure and homeland security.

6 Climate Change is not a belief it s a scientific conclusion. Certain facts about Earth's climate are not in dispute: The heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases was demonstrated in the mid-19th century. Increased levels of greenhouse gases must cause the Earth to warm in response. Ice core data show the Earth s climate responds to changes in solar output, in the Earth s orbit, and in greenhouse gas levels. They also show that in the past, large changes in climate have happened very quickly, geologically-speaking: in tens of years, not in millions or even thousands. SOURCE:

7 The evidence for rapid climate change is compelling: The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is very likely human-induced and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented in the past 1,300 years.

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17 New analysis provided a clear agreement between the rise in global land temperature and human-caused greenhouse gases Berkeley Earth also has carefully studied issues raised by skeptics, such as possible biases from urban heating, data selection, poor station quality, and data adjustment. They demonstrated that these do not unduly bias the results. Having the very long record enabled us to separate out the effects of solar variability, volcanoes, and greenhouse gases. Berkeley Earth's most recent findings suggest that global greenhouse gas emissions are the best explanation of global warming.

18 EPA s Climate Change Indicator Report Goal: to communicate the causes and effects of climate change using a key set of indicators in a sound, transparent, and easy-to-understand way. A compilation of indicators from various sources into one place Builds on a foundation, this is EPA s third published edition Summarizes 30 indicators related to climate change Over 80 figures, maps and graphics Technical documentation for all indicators (online only) May 2014 EPA partners with over 20 federal and non-federal agencies to obtain data and develop this report and is currently collaborating with USGCRP s NCA indicator effort. The report s content draws from and is consistent with the latest climate science including IPCC-AR5 and USGCRP s (NCA) 3 rd assessment report. 18 7

19 Report Indicators by Chapter Greenhouse Gases U.S. GHG Emissions Global GHG Emissions Atmospheric Concentrations of GHGs Climate (radiative) Forcing Weather and Climate U.S. and Global Temperature U.S. and Global Precipitation High and Low Temperatures Drought * A Closer Look: Temperature and Drought in the Southwest Heavy Precipitation Tropical Cyclone Activity Oceans Ocean Heat Content Sea Surface Temperature Sea Level * A Closer Look: Land Loss Along the Atlantic Coast Ocean Acidity * = chapter features Snow and Ice Arctic Sea Ice Glaciers Lake Ice * Community Connection: Ice Breakup in Two Alaskan Rivers Snowfall Snow Cover Snowpack Health and Society Heating and Cooling Degree Days Heat-Related Deaths Lyme Disease Length of Growing Season Ragweed Pollen Season Ecosystems Wildfires Streamflow Water Levels and Water Temperatures in the Great Lakes Bird Wintering Ranges Leaf and Bloom Dates * Community Connection: Cherry Blossom Bloom Dates in Washington, D.C. 19

20 Record Daily High and Low Temperatures in the Contiguous 48 States, This figure shows the percentage of daily temperature records set at weather stations across the contiguous 48 states by decade. Record highs (red) are compared with record lows (blue). Key Points: If the climate were completely stable, one might expect to see highs and lows each accounting for about 50 % of the records set. However, since the 1970s, record-setting daily high temperatures have become more common than record lows across the U.S. The most recent decade had twice as many record highs as record lows. Data source: Meehl et al., 2009.; NOAA, National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) 20

21 Available Resources A ready to use, well-vetted resource! Check out the website! Browse through all the indicators Download indicator graphs, figures, maps Access the technical support documentation Please contact us with requests, ideas, questions, and suggestions! Order free copies of the report, brochure, and summary of key points: climateindicators@epa.gov Full Report Highlights Brochure (6 pages) Key Points (1 page) 21

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31 $110 Billion Weather and Climate Disasters in the US, 2012, NCDC Roughly 20% of humanitarian aid is now spent responding to disasters, whereas a paltry (but rising) 0.7% is spent on preventive measures taken to mitigate their possible consequences, according to the World Bank. The Economist, January 14, 2012

32 Some Region 6 Climate Change Effects Coastal land loss and sea level rise Snow pack loss Increased air temperatures and Increases heat waves in air temp. Declining water sources Drought Increased wildfires and soil erosion 32

33 Urban Heat Island Effect and Adaptation Urban Forests Cool Roofs Green Roofs Urban Heat Islands: Increased energy consumption Reflective & Pervious Surfaces Elevated emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases Compromised human health and comfort Impaired water quality

34 Adaptation is not just about engineering! Heat Wave A Social Autopsy of Disaster in Chicago Eric Klinenberg

35 Water Efficiency Opportunities Water Sense Program Water Conveyance and Leak Detection Remedies Industrial and Agricultural Water Conservation and Reuse Wastewater Plants The New Energy Power Plants!

36 Consumer Choices...

37 Big Spring, TX Water Cycle Big Spring, TX constructed a $13 million waterreclamation facility in response to severe drought conditions. That's a fancy way of describing a treatment plant that will turn sewage wastewater into drinking water. "That's not something I even want to think about," said a Big Spring resident. "It really doesn't sound too good."

38 Santa Rosa, NM Wastewater Reuse Project City of Santa Rosa, NM Funded by Clean Water SRF ARRA $1.3 M Grant & $500,000 loan Treated wastewater reused to irrigate city parks, school ball fields and a local golf course. Reduce use of potable water by 300,000 gallons per day for the months of March through October

39 El Paso, TX Kay Bailey Hutchison Desalination Plant City of El Paso Water Utilities and Fort Bliss Went into production in 2007 Largest inland municipal desalination plant in the world Design capacity of approx million gallons per day (approx 30,800 acre-feet per year)

40 Rain Garden Fayetteville AR Green Parking Lot Houston, TX Open Space Preservation Tulsa, OK Rainwater Harvesting Austin, TX EPA Region 6 Green Infrastructure Rain Garden New Orleans, LA Infiltration Swale Albuquerque, NM Porous Pavement & Infiltration Islands McKinney, TX Living Roof - Webster, TX

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42 Rain Garden Fayetteville AR Green Parking Lot Houston, TX Rainwater Harvesting Austin, TX Open Space Preservation Tulsa, OK Rain Barrels EPA Region 6 Climate Resiliency Rain Garden New Orleans, LA Green Roof Infiltration Swale Albuquerque, NM Porous Pavement & Infiltration Islands McKinney, TX Living Roof - Webster, TX Barrier Coastal Island Preservation Protection and Efforts Restoration

43 Adaptation Resources georgetownclimatecenter.org