Disaster Risk Management & Sustainability. 5th UN-CECAR INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE. 15th November :30-17:30

Transcription

1 UN-CECAR Asia University Network for Climate and Ecosystems Change Research 5th UN-CECAR INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE Disaster Risk Management & Sustainability 15th November :30-17:30 Venue: U Thant International Conference Hall, United Nations University Headquarters Language: English Admission Fee: Free Please register at cecar.unu.edu

2 Programme Morning Session: Young Researcher Presentations On Climate And Ecosystems Change Adaptation Research 09:30 Opening Remarks Dr. Herath Srikantha, Academic Director, Postgraduate Programme in Sustainability and Peace, United Nations University Institute for Sustainability and Peace (UNU-ISP) 10:10 Seasonal prediction of monsoon rainfall with statistical down-scaling of Global Model Outputs for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture, Nachiketa Acharaya, Indian Institute of Technology, India 10:55 Ecosystem Change Adaptation in the Hani Rice Terrace, Yuanmei Jao, Postdoctoral Fellow, the University of Tokyo, Japan 09:40 Sukhothai Flood Analysis and its response under climate change, Patinya Hanittinan, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand 10:25 A serious coastal erosion in Hai Hau district, Nam Dinh, Viet Nam -towards coexistence of human beings and nature-, Mai Thi Thu Thuy, Ibaraki University, Japan 11:10 Potential Effect of Climate Change on Global River Discharge, Wang Yi, Research Associate, UNU-ISP, Japan 09:55 Climate Change Impacts on Floods in Kelani River Basin and Adaptation Measures Gouri De Silva, University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka 10:40 Testing Suitability of DSSAT For Rice Varieties Grown In Kurunegala District, Sri Lanka Mr. Samal Dharmarathna University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka Main Session Disaster Risk Management and Sustainability Presentations 12:50 Welcome Speech, Prof. Kazuhiko Takeuchi, Vice-Rector, UNU 13:40 Damages from the East Japan Great Earthquake and Tsunami and Emerging Policy for Coastal Disaster Reduction in Japan, Prof. Nobuo Mimura, Director, Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science, Ibaraki University, Japan 13:00 Sustainable Disaster Risk Management and the Role of Higher Education, Prof. Srikantha Herath, Academic Director, UNU-ISP 14:00 Post Tsunami Recovery Issues and challenges in Sri Lanka, Mr. Nihal Rupasinghe, Chairman, Central Engineering Consultancy Bureau (CECB), Sri Lanka 13:20 Sustainability and Survivability Prof. Kaoru Takara, Professor, Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Japan 14:20 Q&A 14:40 Coffee Break 15:00 The Role of Engineering Faculty, Gadjah Mada University in Pre, During and Post of Merapi Volcano Eruption Disaster in 2011, Prof. Ir. Tumiran, Dean, Faculty of Engineering, Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia 16:00 Q&A 15:20 Thailand Flood 2011 Causes and Future Scenario-, Prof. Sucharit Koontanakulvong, Professor, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand 16:15 Panel Discussion on Towards Sustainable Disaster Risk Management Moderator: Prof. Kazuhiko Takeuchi, Vice-Rector, UNU Panelists: - Prof. Mai Trong Nhuan, Vietnam National University, Vietnam - Prof. S.B.S Abayakoon, University of Peradeniya - Prof. Toshiro Meguro, University of Tokyo - Prof. Mazlin Mokhtar, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia - Prof. Guangheng Ni, Tsinghua University, China - Prof. Mafizur Rahman, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Bangladesh 15:40 Recent Floods in Pakistan and Disaster Risk Management, Prof. Habib ur Rehman, Head, Hydraulics and Irrigation Engineering Division, Civil Engineering Department, University of Engineering and Technology Lahore, Pakistan 17:30 Closing Remarks

3 UN-CECAR Higher Education The source of human knowledge and capital for tomorrow s sustainable and climate risk-resilient societies Established in 2009, UN-CECAR is a network of universities and research institutes in the Asia-Pacific and Africa who are actively engaged in advanced research and education in climate change, ecosystems change and adaptation. The network aims to bring together the best resources and expertise in the region for joint research, developing innovative postgraduate education programmes and training across disciplinary lines The network was conceived out of a series of discussions held during a conference and a 2-day workshop on the Role of Higher Education in Adapting to Climate Change from June in Tokyo, organized by United Nations University Institute for Sustainability and Peace (UNU- ISP) and Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S). Since its inception, the Network has achieved the following: (1) Launched two intensive postgraduate courses in September 2010, each equivalent to a regular 2-credit postgraduate course in Japan; (2) Conducted a four-country needs assessment to identify key suppliers of climate change knowledge, and priority areas of demand by sector for relevant graduates and specialists, emerging research and degree programmes in the region; (3) Started collaborative research on disasters from extreme events (fast change) and long-term impacts (slow change) due to climate and ecosystems change; (4) Developing module-based postgraduate courses and training in geographic and climate modelling software, complete with teaching support materials. In addition to this, the Network organizes regular conferences and workshops with discussions focused on a specific theme and also to plan and evaluate recent progress of the Network s activities. The International Coordinating Committee (ICC) provides the strategic direction for the Network s activities. It consists of representatives from more than 30 of Asia and Africa s best universities. UNU-ISP acts as the Secretariat for UN-CECAR and coordinates activities on behalf of the Network members. To achieve its objectives, the ICC has established 3 task groups on: Curricula Development, Country Needs Assessment, and Joint Research. UN-CECAR Secretariat Institute for Sustainability and Peace, United Nations University, 53-70, Jingumae 5-chome, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo , Japan Tel: mbox@unu.edu Website:

4 UN-CECAR Keynote Speakers Sharing Asian Experiences Prof. Kazuhiko Takeuchi Vice-Rector United Nations University Kazuhiko Takeuchi is a Vice-Rector of United Nations University, the Deputy Executive Director of the Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S), and a Professor, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences at the University of Tokyo. He has served, inter alia, as the President of the Japanese Institute of Landscape Architecture, a special member of the National Land Development Council, a member of the Central Environment Council, and a member of the Food, Agriculture and Rural Area Policies Council, Government of Japan, Editor-in-Chief of the journal Sustainability Science (Springer). Prof. Srikantha Herath Academic Director Postgraduate Programme in Sustainability and Peace, UNU-ISP Srikantha Herath engages in research and education in water security, climate change and natural disaster risk reduction. His postgraduate teaching and research currently focuses on global change impacts on environmental processes, especially related to hydrological and atmospheric process with applications in urban hydrology, flood forecasting, damage estimation, sediment transport and water cycle change assessment using physically based distributed hydrological modelling aided by Remote Sensing and GIS. Prof. Nobuo Mimura Director Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science Ibaraki University, Japan Nobuo Mimura is Director of the Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science, Ibaraki University, Japan. He specialises in global environmental engineering, coastal engineering and adaptation policy to climate change. He is intensively engaged in studies on the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on Japan, China, Thailand and small island countries such as Tuvalu, Samoa and Fiji, leading several research projects in this field. He has also served as an expert advisor to the Japanese government.

5 Mr. Nihal Rupasinghe Chairman Central Engineering Consultancy Bureau (CECB) Sri Lanka Mr. Nihal Rupasinghe is the chairman of the Central Engineering Consultancy Bureau (CECB) Sri Lanka, which is a leading highly diversified multidisciplinary engineering consultancy and construction organization established under the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Management of Sri Lanka. Mr. Rupasinghe has received his degree from the Faculty of Engineering, University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka and later received his specialized post graduate diploma in hydropower in Norway. He is also a Chartered Engineer and a Licensed Surveyor as well. Prof. Ir. Tumiran Dean Faculty of Engineering, Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia Ir. Tumiran is a dean of Engineering Faculty in Gadjah Mada Unviersity, Indonesia, and specializes in electrical power engineering and production and information sciences. Prof. Tumiran leads various research projects and also engages in the government's development planning especially relating to energy sector. He is deeply involved in reconstruction planning for the Merapi Volcano Eruption Disaster in Prof. Sucharit Koontanakulvong Head Water Resource Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University Thailand Sucharit Koonthanakulvong is a head of the Water Resources System Research Unit and a deputy dean of Engineering Faculty, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand. His specialities are in water resource engineering and water disaster management and adaptation measures to climate change in Thailand. Prof. Kaoru Takara Vice Director Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Japan Kaoru Takara is an assistant to the Executive Vice-President of Kyoto University and Vice-Director of DPRI, Kyoto University, and Chairperson of Intergovernmental Council of International Hydrological Programme (IHP), UNESCO. Prof. Takara, a head of Innovative Disaster Prevention Technology and Policy Research Laboratory at DPRI, engages research and education in the fields of natural disaster, hydraulic engineering, and social system engineering. Prof. Habib ur Rehman Head Hydraulics and Irrigation Engineering Division, Civil Engineering Department, University of Engineering and Technology Lahore, Pakistan Habib ur Rehman is a head of Hydraulics and Irrigation Engineering Division, Civil Engineering Department, University of Engineering and Technology Lahore, Pakistan. His specialities are in physical based distributed Hydrological Modelling and Regional scale soil erosion and sediment transport modelling. He has also engaged in various research projects including Hydrological and sedimentation studies for several dam sites in Pakistan.

6 Panelist In search of Sustainable Disaster Risk Management Model Prof. Mai Trong Nhuan President Vietnam National University Vietnam Prof. S. B. S. Abayakoon President University of Peradeniya Sri Lanka Prof. Kimiro Meguro Director International Centre for Urban Safety Engineering (ICUS) University of Tokyo, Japan Prof. Mazlin bin Mokhtar Director Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI), Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia Prof. Guangheng Ni Director Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Tsinghua University, China Prof. Mafizur Rahman Professor Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Bangladesh Young Researchers Climate and Ecosystems Change Adaptation Research Mr. Patinya Hanittinan Graduate Student Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand Ms. Gouri De Silva Graduate Student, Engineering Department University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka Mr. Nachiketa Acharaya Ms. Mai Thi Thu Thuy Mr. Samal Dharmarathna Project Associate Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, India Graduate Student Department of Civil Engineering Ibaraki University, Japan Graduate Student, Engineering Department University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka Dr. Yuanmei Jao Dr. Wang Yi Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Tokyo, Japan Research Associate UNU-ISP

7 Flood inundation mapping along the lower reach of Kelani River basin under changing climate M. M. G. T. De Silva 1, S. B. Weerakoon 1, Srikantha Herath 2, U. R. Ratnayake 1 1 Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri lanka 2 United Nations University Institute for Sustainability and Peace, Jingumae, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo, Japan Abstract: The downstream low lying region of the Kelani River including the Colombo suburbs, experience severe inundation due to heavy rainfalls in the upper catchment of the Kelani River. Occurrence of heavy rainfalls is expected to be more frequent in tropics with the impact of climate change (IPCC, 2007). Therefore, understanding future rainfall intensity in the catchment and inundation in the low lying region along the lower reach of the Kelani River is extremely important as this is a region with high population concentration and economic activities in the suburbs of the capital. Present study analyses the potential extreme rainfalls and resulting flood inundation along the lower Kelani River. Coarse grid atmospheric parameters provided by Global Climate Model (GCM) models for A2 (high emission scenario) and B2 (low emission scenario) scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) were downscaled to catchment scale by applying Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). Flood discharge and inundation along the Kelani River reach below Hanwella were analyzed by applying two-dimensional flood simulation model (FLO-2D). Inflow to the model at Hanwella, is estimated by the Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model under future extreme rainfall events. Areas vulnerable for inundation under the above climate change scenarios are presented. Keywords: Extreme rainfall, Flood inundation, Climate change 1. Introduction Climate change is defined as statistically significant variation in either mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). It may be due to natural internal processes or external forcing or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use (Houghton, et al., 2001). Climate change directly affects on precipitation and temperature. High intense rainfalls, frequent and prolonged droughts are some examples. It has being predicted that the implications of climate change on Sri Lanka are variations in rainfall patterns, sea level rise, and temperature (Basnayake, et al., 2007). Two monsoon systems, the South West (May-Sep) and the North East (Nov-Feb) and development of extreme low pressure conditions at the Bay of Bengal also have direct impacts on the rainfall patterns in Sri Lanka. Anomalously high seasonal precipitation typically associated with La Nina phenomenon and cyclonic storms originate from the Bay of Bengal are usually the main reasons for devastating floods in the island. This study discussed the frequencies of high intensity precipitation with their inundation extents in the Kelani River basin, produced under IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios (IPCC, 2007). Both A2 and B2 emphasize on rapidly growing self-reliant nations while B2 accounts for more ecologically friendly growth. If 15

8 extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent in the 21 st century as manifested by ever changing global climate system, the Kelani River basin is one of the most vulnerable river basins for floods and costly flood damages since the river flows through the commercial capital. 2. Study Area The Kelani River basin is located in between Northern latitudes 6 47' to 7 05' and Eastern longitudes 79 52' to 80 13'. The catchment area is about 2230 km 2 with two distinct types, the upper catchment is mountainous and the lower catchment which is below Hanwella, is plain extending towards the coast. The catchment receives about 2400 mm of average annual rainfall. Kelani River carries a peak flow of about m 3 /s during monsoon seasons, to the Indian Ocean. The flood level gauge at Nagalagam Street (Colombo) defines the severity of the flood as; minor floods (level between 1.5 m and 2.1 m), major floods (level is between 2.1 m and 2.7 m), and severe flood (level exceeds 2.7 m) (Gunasekara, 2008). With the climate change impacts proper understanding on occurrence of rainfall, flood forecasting and inundation analysis in Kelani River basin are very important due to the occurrence of frequent floods and accompanied social and economic loss. According to the Disaster Management Centre (DMC), more than 38,000 families living in flood plains of Kelani River were affected during the 2008 flood while more than 78,000 families were affected during 2010 flood. Moreover Irrigation Department records show that there were two consecutive severe floods occurred during year Methodology 3.1 Preparation of data Topographic data of the catchment was obtained from Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data as Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The SRTM-DEM data, with a horizontal resolution of 3 (approximately 90 m near the equator) and a vertical resolution of 1 m, constitutes the finest resolution and most accurate topographic data available for most of the globe (Rennó, et al., 2008). According to a study carried out to Ruhuna basin, the most useful data was the SRTM DEM at 90m resolution. The slope map generated using the SRTM DEM was very useful to identify low lying areas (Islam, et al., 2008). Moreover SRTM DEM has successfully used in setting up experimental basin in upper Kotmale area (Hunukumbura, 2006). Inflow hydrograph at Hanwella was generated by Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) for the rainfall generated for upper catchment by applying Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and the rainfall of the lower catchment also generated by SDSM. Land use data was obtained from the Department of Survey, Sri Lanka as 1:50,000 scale. 3.2 Rainfall Modeling SDSM which is designed to downscale GCM data into regional level, was applied to downscale precipitation for the catchment up to 2099 under A2 and B2 scenarios published by IPCC. The model was calibrated for the period from 1961 to 1975 and validated from 1976 to 16

9 1990. SDSM uses linear regression techniques between predictor and predictand to produce multiple realizations of synthetic daily weather sequences. The predictor variables provide daily information about large scale atmosphere condition, while the predictand describes the condition at the site level (Bekele, 2009). However, the capability of representing the current state of the precipitation regimes by downscaled from GCM outputs was checked to have an assurance. Therefore in order to ensure that the downscaling method in reproducing the mean and variability of observed variable, an statistical analysis was carriedout (Dibike, et al., 2008). Table 1 shows the statistical parameters of annual maximum daily rainfall for simulated and observed data during the periods of calibration ( ) and validation ( ). Table 1: Statistical parameters of the daily rainfall distribution Parameter 1 st Quartile Median 3 rd Quartile Variance Obs A B Obs A B According to the statistical parameters, 1 st & 3 rd quartiles, and median lie in the same range as observed while the variance bit deviate for the calibration period. All the statistical parameters of simulations show a sound matching with observed when it comes to validation period. Since the simulation results for both calibration and validation periods under A2 and B2 scenarios shows a sound correlation with observed data (De Silva, et al., 2011) the forecasted data were used for inundation analysis. Forecasted rainfall of the upper catchment by SDSM was used in HEC-HMS model to generate the flow at Hanwella. HEC-HMS, developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers, is designed to simulate the precipitation runoff processes of watershed systems. Numerous past studies have shown this model to provide accurate and useful results in flood related studies (Knebla, et al., 2005). Frequency analysis of return period was carried out for 3day total rainfall of the upper catchment by using forecasted data from 2020 to 2099, because the upper catchment is of about 1740 km 2 and one day rainfall may not be able to produce floods in the lower catchment. The time of concentration from upper catchment to Hanwella is more than one day. Moreover past records of severe floods (2005, 2008, and 2010) show that the floods occurred in lower catchment were due to more than 2 days of rainfall in the upper catchment. That might be due to greater losses of infiltration and depression storage, since the upper catchment is an area with more vegetation cover and lesser amount of built-up areas. However, one day rainfall of lower catchment can cause severe floods, because it is a small area about 500 km 2 with plain features and ample amount of built-up areas. In addition, the time of concentration of lower catchment is less and the drainage system is also poor. Therefore, the daily rainfall forecasted from 2020 to 2099 was used for the frequency analysis of the lower catchment. 17

10 Three day rainfall events of 50 year and 100 year return periods of upper catchment and daily rainfall events of 50 year and 100 year return periods of lower catchment were selected for flood and inundation mapping. Table 2 and 3 illustrate the summary of frequency analysis for upper and lower catchments respectively by applying the Gumble distribution. Table 2 5 day rainfall for upper catchment Return 3 day rainfall / (mm) Period / (yr) A 2 B Table 3 Daily rainfall for lower catchment Return Daily rainfall / (mm) Period / (yr) A 2 B D flow modeling Two-dimensional flood simulation model, FLO-2D was utilized to map inundation areas. FLO-2D is simple volume conservation, two-dimensional flood routing model that distributes a flood hydrograph over a system of square grid element. It could be a valuable tool for delineating flood hazards, regulating floodplain zoning or designing flood mitigation. FLO- 2D numerically routes a flood hydrograph while predicting the area of inundation and simulating flood wave attenuation (Tetra Tech, 2004). The FLO-2D system consists of processor programs to facilitate graphical editing and mapping and components that simulation channel and floodplain detail. The Grid Developer System (GDS) generates a grid system that represents the topography as a series of small tiles. The FLO-2D model has components for rainfall, channel flow, overland flow, infiltration, levees and other physical features (FLO-2D Reference manual, 2009). FLO-2D moves the flood volume around on a series of tiles for overland flow or through stream segments for channel routing. Flood wave progression over the flow domain is controlled by topography and resistance to flow. Flood routing in two dimensions is accomplished through a numerical integration of the equations of motion and the continuity equation (FLO-2D Reference manual, 2009). h = flow depth V = depth-averaged velocity i = excess rainfall intensity Sf = friction slope So = bed slope 18

11 The differential form of the continuity equation and equation of momentum in the FLO-2D model is solved with a central, finite difference numerical scheme as one dimensional flow of channel and two dimensional flow of flood plain. 3.4 Model calibration The GDS was used to generate 250 m x 250 m grids covering the catchment. The topography of the catchment area was assigned by using the downloaded DEM from SRTM and Manning s coefficients over the catchment were allocated according to the land use patterns. The model was calibrated for the extreme event occurred in November 2005, by comparing the flow at Nagalagam Street discharge gauging station. The validation was carried out for the discharge at Nagalagam Street by using the events occurred in April-May 2008, May-June 2008 and May Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R 2, Percentage Bias (PB) and Absolute Percentage Bias (APB) were considered to justify the accuracy of results. Table 4: Parameters used to evaluate the accuracy of the results Parameter Equation Event RMSE MAE R PB APB According to table 4, the model is capable of simulating discharge for the study area. Therefore in order to justify the model capability, simulated inundation extents were compared with the observed flood event in May The observed inundation extents in the catchment published by the DMC are shown in figure 4(a) and shaded regions indicate the area subjected to inundation. The simulated result for the same event is shown in figure 4(b). Figure 4(c) illustrates the combination of the observed and simulated inundation extents. 19

12 (a) - Observed (b) - Simulated (c) Combination of observed and simulated Figure 4 Inundation extents Figure 4 indicates that the simulated inundation extents show a sound matching with the observed inundation areas for 2010 flood event. Since the discharge at Nagalagam Street gauging station and the inundation extents of the simulation are befitting with the observed, the optimized parameters were used for future forecasts as well. 4. Results and Conclusions Flood inundation extents due to the rainfall of 50 year and 100 year return periods under A2 and B2 scenarios were generated by applying FLO-2D system. 20

13 (a) A2 Scenario (b) B2 Scenario Figure 5 Inundation extents due to 3 day rainfall of 50 year return period in the upper catchment and daily rainfall of 50 year return period in the lower catchment Figure 5 shows that the flood corresponds to rainfalls of 50 year return period, causes inundation in Colombo and Gampaha districts. Hanwella, Kaduwela, Kolonnawa, Biyagama, Kelaniya and Colombo areas are identified as more vulnerable regions for flood inundation. (a) A2 Scenario (b) B2 Scenario Figure 6 Inundation extents due to pentad rainfall of 100 year return period in the upper catchment and daily rainfall of 100 year return period in the lower catchment Figure 6 shows the flood corresponds to rainfall of 100 year return period. With compared to 50 year, the inundation areas expands more to Kelaniya, Thimbirigasyaya and Sri Jayawardanapura Kotte, during 100 year return period. The inundation extents correspond to each flood event considered and the hazard status are shown in table 3. Low hazardous means water depth is in between 1.5 m & 2.0 m, moderate hazardous means water depth is in between 2.0 m & 2.7 m and high hazardous means water depth is greater than 2.7 m. 21

14 Table 5 Vulnerable areas for floods Vulnerable area / (km 2 ) Hazard status 50 year return period A2 50 year return period B2 100 year return period A2 100 year return period B2 Low Moderate High The research outcomes are useful for identifying the hazardous areas due to floods. Depending on the frequency and severity of floods, the areas could be developed in order to minimize the risk of damages to the public. In addition, flood warning systems and evacuation centres could be established in order to prevent the losses. Further, inundation maps could be published in public places along with awareness programs which would guide people to find safe places during severe floods. References 1. Basnayake B.R.S.B., Rathnasiri J. and Withange J.C., Rainfall & Temperature Scenarios for Sri Lanka under the anticipated Climate Change, AIACC project, AS 12 presentation, Bekele H. M., Thesis, Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Upper Blue Nile Basin Reservoirs, School of Post Graduate Studies, Arba Minch University, Chow, V. T., Maidment, D. R., Mays, L. W., Applied Hydrology, International ed., Singapore, De Silva M.M.G.T., Weerakoon S.B, Ratnayaka U.R., Herath S., Forecasting extreme rainfall in kelani river basin under changeing climate, Peradeniya University Research Sessions (PURSE) 2011, Vol Dibike Y. B., Gachon P., St-Hilaire A., Ouarda T. B. M. J., and Van T.-V. Nguyen, Uncertainty analysis of statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation regimes in Northern Canada, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, FLO-2D Reference manual, Gunasekara, I. P. A., Flood Hazard Mapping in Lower Reach of Kelani River, Journal of Engineer Vol. XXXXI, No. 05, Houghton J.T., Ding Y., Griggs D.J., Noguer M., van der Linden P.J., Dai X., Maskell K. and Johnson C.A., climatechange 2001: the scientific basis, IPCC, 9. Hunukumbura J.M.P.B, Thesis, Setting up of an experimental basin and development of a cell-based model to derive direct runoff hydrographs for ungauged basins, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Peradeniya,

15 10. Knebla, M. R., Yanga, Z.-L., Hutchisonb, K. & Maidmentc, D.R., Regional scale flood modeling using NEXRAD rainfall, GIS, and HEC-HMS/RAS: a case study for the San Antonio River Basin Summer 2002 storm event, Journal of Environmental Management 75 (2005) , Md. A. Islam, P. S. Thenkabail, R. W. Kulawardhana, R. Alankara, S. Gunasinghe, C. Edussriya and A. Gunawardana, Semi-automated methods for mapping wetlands using Landsat ETM+ and SRTM data, International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 29, No. 24, Rennó, C. D., Nobre, A. D., Cuartas, L. A., Soares, J. V., Hodnett, M. G., Tomasella, J., Waterloo, M. J., HAND, a new terrain descriptor using SRTM-DEM: Mapping terra-firme rainforest environments in Amazonia, Remote Sensing of Environment, RSE Tetra Tech, Inc., Surface Water Group, Development of the Middle Rio Grande FLO-2D Flood Routing Model Cochiti Dam to Elephant Butte Reservoir,