LAND USE FORECASTS FOR RTS

Transcription

1 LAND USE FORECASTS FOR RTS April 2014

2 Purpose Forecast 2045 population/household and employment by traffic zone in Metro Vancouver for RTS Base Case and selected RTS Alternatives

3 Major Assumptions 1. Time frame: Broad land use framework of RGS: Urban containment boundary fixed, ALR preserved Urban Centres and FTDA framework 3. Total forecasted Metro employment constant across alternatives; structure and trajectory of regional economy not affected by transportation 4. Total forecasted Metro population constant across alternatives; regional demographic profile not affected by transportation 5. Primary impact of transportation changes on urban development is distributional

4 Forecast Methodology: Population & Households Single Family Regional Populatio n Growth Areas that vary between alternative s Total New Units Townhouse Apartment Low Rise Apartment High Rise Municipal Share By Type, # Units By Type Subarea Allocatio n Traffic Zone Allocatio n Populatio n By TZ Areas that do not vary between alternative s Development Capacity By Unit Type Impact of transportation

5 Forecast Methodology: Employment Existing TZ Employment Forecasts by Industry Sector Fixed Locations 1 Determined by Land Supply 2 Population-Driven 3 Market Forces, Competitive Advantage 4 Population Distribution Advantages, Disadvantages, Market Preferences Use Available TZ Forecasts Produce New TZ Forecasts Sub-Area Forecasts Municipal Forecasts Regional Forecast 1. E.g. YVR, post-secondary education, hospitals 2. E.g. Heavy and light industry 3. E.g. Retail/service, some prof. 4. E.g. High density office-based, tourism Impact of transportation

6 RTS Alternatives for Land Use Forecasts Description Rapid Transit Conventional Extent Intensity Transit (Technology) RTS Base Case 1 Full Extent (high intensity/transit) 2 Full Extent (high intensity, medium transit) 3 Full Extent (medium intensity, transit) 4 Full Extent (medium intensity, high transit) No major changes to existing situation Roads/ Bridges Full High High Incremental expansion, minor in context of largely built network Cycling / Walking High (implement Regional Cycling Strategy and complete the walking network) TDM No change Full High Medium 1 No change Full Medium Medium 1 No change Full Medium High No change 5 Partial Extent Partial High Medium 2 No change 6 Full Extent (high), with medium TDM Full High High Med 7 Full Extent (high), with high TDM Full High High High

7 Impact of Transportation Elements on Forecasts Major roads Bridges (note a) Cycling/walking Conventional transit Enhanced priority transit TDM (note b) Rapid transit (SkyTrain, LRT, BRT) No impact because no variations across RTS Base Case or Alternatives X X X No impact because changes are not large enough to have a material impact on land use X X X Possible Impact X a. Our forecasts were done without consideration of the replacement of the George Massey tunnel or Patullo Bridge. b. Our work suggests that TDM measures would need to be significantly larger than those being considered in the RTS Alternatives in order to impact land use

8 Comparison of Rapid Transit Assumptions Metro/Municipal RTS RGS/ MGS Updated Forecasts at the TZ Level a Base Case Full Extent Alternatives (1-high intensity, 7-high intensity plus TDM, 3-medium intensity) Partial Extent Alternative (5) Coquitlam: Evergreen line Vancouver/ Burnaby: Broadway Corridor Burnaby Mountain c b Surrey Centre to Newton (KGB) Newton to White Rock (KGB) Surrey/ White Rock/ Langley: Surrey Centre to Guildford (104 th ) Surrey Centre to Langley Centre (Fraser Hwy) Langley Centre to Walnut Grove (200 th St) Richmond: Capstan Way Station a. Provided by some municipalities. b. Only to Arbutus, not UBC. c. Included in RTS Alternatives 1 and 7, but not 3.

9 Approximate Price Zones for New Good Quality Apartment Units in Areas with Rapid Transit

10 Difference between Population Forecasts for the RTS Base Case & Full Extension of Rapid Transit Alternatives

11 Categorizing Sectoral Employment by Factor Driving Location (samples) Coriolis Coding Business/ Other Services Accommodation, Food, Information, Cultural Services Health, Education, Public Admin TZ Construction, Manufacturing FIRE TCU/Wholesale Retail 6790 Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed 4140 Fixed Fixed Fixed Population Fixed Population Fixed 7550 Fixed Population Fixed Population Population Population Population 3180 Fixed OfficeCentre Fixed Population OfficeCentre Population Fixed 2170 Fixed OfficeCentre Fixed Fixed OfficeCentre Fixed Fixed

12 Total Employment by Factor Driving Location Job Growth Share of Growth 2011 Jobs 2045 Jobs Fixed 654, , ,000 50% Population-Driven 425, , ,000 40% Office Centre 150, ,000 56,000 10% Total Employment 1,229,000 1,779, , %

13 Difference between Population-Driven Employment Forecasts for the RTS Base Case & Full Extension of Rapid Transit Alternatives

14 Share of Office Centre Employment Growth Historic Indicator a MGS Forecasts b RTS Base Case RTS Partial Extent Alternative RTS Full Extent Alternatives Established Business Centres: Vancouver/UEL: Downtown Vancouver 41.2% 28.5% 33.0% 32.0% 32.0% Broadway Corridor 8.8% 3.3% 7.3% 8.3% 8.3% Broadway Tech 10.0% 3.4% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% South of Fraser: Surrey City Centre 16.5% 6.4% 18.0% 17.0% 15.0% Guildford 2.6% 6.0% 3.0% 3.0% 5.0% Langley Centre (City+Township) 2.3% 5.2% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% Other Established Centres: Metrotown 3.8% 6.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% Downtown New Westminster 2.1% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Richmond City Centre 1.9% 3.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% Lonsdale 1.3% 4.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% Sum of Established Business Centres 90% 70% 82% 82% 82% Other Business Centres 10% 30% 18% 18% 18% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% a. Share of office floorspace growth in Metro Vancouver that occurred in regional centres from b. Share of FIRE and Business/Other Services job growth in Metro Vancouver that occurs in regional centres from in the MGS forecasts.

15 Difference between Office Centre Employment Forecasts for the RTS Base Case & Full Extension of Rapid Transit Alternatives

16 Findings Broadway Corridor Line: will not draw significant population or employment from outside Vancouver main impact will be on the distribution of population and employment growth within Vancouver and the UEL: Broadway Corridor increases Downtown and Cambie Corridor decrease

17 Findings (continued) South of Fraser Rapid Transit Extensions: will not draw significant population or employment from outside South of Fraser communities main impact will be on the distribution of population and employment growth within this trade area: Surrey City Centre decreases Other transit-served centres in Surrey and Langley increase