Forecasting Demand. Ed Holland, AICP Planning Director Orange Water and Sewer Authority February 23, 2010
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1 Forecasting Demand Ed Holland, AICP Planning Director Orange Water and Sewer Authority February 23, 2010
2 Presentation Outline Forecasting what? Look for trends and patterns Externalities to consider Sources of information OWASA examples A few tips to keep in mind
3 Forecasting what? Total consumption (demand) Numbers of accounts (by type, meter size, etc.)
4 Look for trends and patterns in the data
5 Total Number of Accounts
6 Observations from the data: Stable (and linear) increase of 468 accounts/yr. ~1% growth
7 Accounts by Type
8 Observations from the data: Growth in accounts appears to be uniform across all types
9 Consumption (Demand)
10 Observations from the data: Total consumption has been essentially flat for the past 4 yrs
11 Total Consumption by Account Type
12 Relative Consumption by Account Type
13 Observations from the data: Relative consumption by account type has not changed
14 Observations from data: Stable (and linear) increase of 468 accounts/yr. ~1% growth Growth in accounts appears to be uniform across all types Total consumption has been essentially flat for the past 4 yrs Relative consumption by account type has not changed
15 So, what s the forecast for next year? Very slight increase (+468) in total accounts. No change in consumption, assume rebound to level of first two years.
16 Factors to consider Normal growth within service area? Potential changes to service area boundaries (annexation, etc.)? Any new conservation or demand management initiatives? Major new residential or development projects? Special economic development initiatives?
17 Sources of Information Use local data whenever possible, especially from local planning, zoning, and inspection departments: Comprehensive plans Buildout projections, transportation analysis zone (TAZ) data if available Building permit data Other?
18 Some OWASA Examples Service area boundaries Recent and long-term demand trends Long-term forecasts Anticipated effects of conservation and reuse
19
20 Water Use By Major Customer Group
21 Water Use By Major Customer Group Single family 35% Multi-family 20% UNC 28% Commercial/Other 17%
22 No Change Among Major Groups
23 Local Development Trends in Carrboro and Chapel Hill
24 Decreasing supply of raw land Shift toward smaller SFR lot sizes More infill and redevelopment, including tear-down Increasing proportion of new attached, townhouse style residential housing
25 Proposals for higher intensity mixed-use projects in Carrboro and Chapel Hill Projected decrease in per unit water demands New reclaimed water system will further offset potable water sales
26 Recent Trends in OWASA Customer Demands
27 Water Conservation!
28 Declining rate of single family home construction
29 A look at the longer view...
30 Million Raw Gallons Water Demand per Day (mgd) Water Use: Past, Present, and Future mgd Yield ` Raw Demand Water Demand Projections Projections 50-Year Supply and Demand Projections Actual RW RW MP MP "Expected" High/Low Range "Expected" "High" Projection Expected Demands '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40 '45 '50 '55 '60
31 Million Raw Gallons Water Demand per Day (mgd) Water Use: Past, Present, and Future mgd Yield ` Raw Demand Water Demand Projections Projections 50-Year Supply and Demand Projections Actual RW RW MP MP "Expected" High/Low Range "Expected" "High" Projection Expected Demands '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40 '45 '50 '55 '60
32 Million Raw Gallons Water Demand per Day (mgd) Water Use: Past, Present, and Future mgd Yield ` Raw Demand Water Demand Projections Projections 50-Year Supply and Demand Projections Actual RW RW MP MP "Expected" High/Low Range "Expected" "High" Projection Higher Demand '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40 '45 '50 '55 '60
33 Good New/Bad News Demands (and revenues) are becoming much less predictable. No more steady breeze of growth to propel us forward Reduced demand projections may allow the deferral or avoidance of major capital expenditures
34 A few tips... Look for patterns and trends in past/recent data. Don t be afraid to extrapolate or simply connect the dots. Be sure to reality-check your forecasts with local housing data and employment projections whenever possible. Don t try to do more than the data can support.
35 Questions, Comments? Ed Holland, AICP Planning Director Orange Water and Sewer Authority P.O. Box 366 Carrboro, NC
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