THE LOW CARBON ENERGY TRANSITION IN NORTHERN IRELAND. Prof. John Barry

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1 THE LOW CARBON ENERGY TRANSITION IN NORTHERN IRELAND Prof. John Barry

2 Energy and the Economy in NI: the carbon energy regime

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5 Centrality of Fossil Fuel Energy Name one thing in this room not made in whole or part, or transported in whole or part without the use of oil?

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7 Imported fossil fuels and local fuel poverty Over 90% of home heating in NI depends on imported oil contributes to high levels of fuel poverty (over 40% of households). Country Number (millions) % England Scotland Wales N. Ireland

8 Our energy trilemma Energy security Affordability Sustainability moving beyond carbon energy

9 Fossil Fuel Dependency of NI Due to our high dependence on foreign fuel (88% dependence on oil and gas imports in the South and 100% dependence on gas imports in the North), all-island Ireland is highly vulnerable in terms of energy security. The majority of our imports come from within EU and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. This helps to reduce our energy security exposure. However, our vulnerability is increasing as EU and OECD sources of fossil fuels diminish. North South Inter-Parliamentary Association (2013), Energy Security, pp.5-6

10 Energy insecurity in NI Northern Ireland s security of supply at risk from 2016 and in deficit from There are three reasons for this deficit: 1. Despite the Republic of Ireland experiencing a surplus of generation, limitations in interconnection between the two jurisdictions restrict the amount of generation that can be transferred to Northern Ireland. The delay in the North-South Interconnector is a barrier to resolving this issue. 2. EU Emissions Directive will, from 2016, result in the reduction in generation capacity from the Ballylumford plant, and restrict generation at the Kilroot plant. 3. Faults on the Moyle Interconnector, which connects Northern Ireland and Scotland, have halved its capacity. Full restoration of this capacity is not likely to be complete until 2017

11 Energy as a socio-technical system Recognition of energy as a socio technical system, embedded in a complex multi dimensional multi actor and multi-level arena (from global to local government to households), with dynamic properties. the key choices involved in energy transitions are not so much between different fuels but between different forms of social, economic, and political arrangements built in combination with new energy technologies. In other words, the challenge is not simply what fuel to use but how to organize a new energy system around that fuel. (Miller, Iles and Jones, 2013: 139: emphasis added)

12 Transition Management How the state/government can manage the process of transitioning from one energy regime to another Decades long process years Complex, large number of actors producers and consumers Issues of technological innovation, grid and electricity infrastructure, social acceptance, economic viability and energy vision based around electrification of our lives, transport, heating and working

13 Some good news..kilroot energy storage array officially opened today

14 Decarbonisation and the next industrial revolution

15 Transition from carbon lock in Power of the incumbent (and therefore powerful) existing carbon energy provides as part of the carbon energy regime Example of hidden and publicly less discussed carbon subsidies International Energy Agency s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2014 published in November 2014, fossil fuel subsidies added up to US$ 548 billion for the year twice as high as the total global renewable energy market volume

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17 The need for disruptive energy niches and a shared energy vision for NI Low carbon energy niches as source of disruptive innovations with the capacity to (over time ) displace and replace the incumbent carbon energy regime Such as bioenergy sources and technologies (focus of tonight s event) Innovations not just renewable energy technologies, but energy efficiency, management, energy conservation and energy reduction and changing our use and relationship to energy Energy as a socio-technical system not simply a fuel or energy technology Need for a shared energy vision for NI s future and clear roadmap

18 Energy system transition innovation and abandonment Governance of the abandonment of socio-technical systems: fading out, termination, deconstruction Governance of socio-technical systems: a matter of progress & innovation

19 Social/Political disruptive action and the energy transition

20 Without Vision, there the people perish Need for integrative, shared vision on energy futures and energy transition amongst key energy actors Government - central and local; Energy suppliers carbon and renewable; energy distributors, Energy users businesses and households Short term: Protect and ensure maximum efficiency of the current carbon energy system even as we plan for the transition beyond carbon Short and medium term: Focus on low carbon energy transition, reducing energy demand, increase energy efficiency and not simply focus on energy supply