Greg Latta Forest Engineering and Resource Management Oregon State University

Transcription

1 Greg Latta Forest Engineering and Resource Management Oregon State University

2 FASOM Model Collaborators Texas A&M Bruce McCarl Jerry Cornforth Oregon State University Darius Adams Eric White USDA Forest Service Ralph Alig Nicholas Institute, Duke Brian Murray Justin Baker EPA Adam Daigneault Jared Creason Sarah Ohrel EPRI Steven Rose RTI International Robert Beach

3 Where do (Forests) we fit in? Overview of the various models EPA uses for climate bill analysis

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5 CGE Models IPM Integrated Planning Model Multi regional, dynamic, deterministic linear programming model dl of the US electric power sector. Developer ICF Resources Website ipm/index.html

6 Inputs to CGE Models MiniCAM Mini Climate Assessment Model (now called GCAM) Highly aggregated integrated assessment model focusing on global energy and agriculture. Used to generate international offset marginal cost curves for CO2, N2O, CH4 and F gases. Developer Joint Global Change Research Institute University of Maryland Website Note: F gases are hydrofluorocarbons or HFCs, perfluorocarbons or PFCs and sulphur hexafluoride or SF6

7 Inputs to CGE Models GTM Global Timber Model Partial equilibrium model with ~250 regions. It estimates harvest, management, forest area changes, and trade among other things. Used to generate international forest offset marginal cost curves for CO2. Principal Developer Brent Sohngen Ohio State University Website

8 Inputs to CGE Models FASOM Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model Dynamic spatial equilibrium model with interaction between the agricultural, forest and bioenergy sectors. Used to generate domestic offset marginal cost curves for CO2, N2O, CH4. Principal Developer Bruce McCarl Texas A&M Website bruce/fasom.html

9 Inputs to CGE Models NCGM Non CO2 Greenhouse Gas Models Spreadsheet based economic models with cost and performance data on over 15 sectors emitting the non CO2 GHGs. Developer EPA Website

10 CGE Models IGEM Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model Dynamic model covering 35 US industries with and emphasis on energy and the environment. Developer Dale Jorgenson Associates Website rcbg/ptep/igem.htm

11 CGE Models ADAGE Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy Model Dynamic computable general equilibrium model with a single theoretical structure for three distinct modules: International, US Regional, and Single Country. Developer RTI International Website B0F AC46B3C69E09ADA9 C6 ADA

12 What is the policy? Overview of the emissions etc

13 US Greenhouse Gas Emissions From: (EPA 430 R ) Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks:

14 2008 CO2 Emissions

15 The Cap

16 The End Goal Domestic Figure 1: Total Domestic Forest and Agriculture Offset MACs for constant (a) and rising (b) prices (avg MtCO 2 e yr -1 ) $/tco2e $50 $250 $40 $30 $ $ $/tco2e $200 $150 $100 $ $- $ MtCO2e/yr Mt CO2e/yr (a) (b) U.S. EPA, Updated Forestry and Agriculture Marginal Abatement Cost Curves. Memorandum to John Conti, EIA, March 31, 2009.

17 The End Goal International U.S. EPA, Updated Forestry and Agriculture Marginal Abatement Cost Curves. Memorandum to John Conti, EIA, March 31, 2009.

18 Putting It Together HR2454 Analysis

19 Putting It Together HR2454 Analysis

20 Putting It Together HR2454 Analysis

21 A Little Legislative History Bill Number and Title Introduced Reported by Committee Passed Sponser 108 th Congress S. 843 Clean Air Planning Act of Apr 03 Sen. Thomas Carper [D DE] 110 th Congress S. 280 Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of Jan 07 Sen. Joseph Lieberman [I CT] S Low Carbon Economy Act of Jul 07 Sen. Jeff Bingaman [D NM] S Lieberman Warner Climate Security Act of Oct 07 5 Dec 07 Sen. Joseph Lieberman [I CT] 111 th Congress HR H.R American Clean Energy and Security Act of May May Jun 09 Rep. Henry Waxman [D CA30] S Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act 30 Sep 09 5 Nov 09 Sen. John Kerry [D MA]

22 Changes in FASOM offsets prior to HR2454 Table 1: FASOMGHG v1 and v2 Baseline GHG Net Annual Emissions by Activity and Decade for the United States: (Average MtCO 2 e yr -1 ) Source/Sink v1 v2 v1 v2 v1 v2 v1 v2 v1 v2 Forest Management (322) 165 (314) (99) (163) (174) (229) (152) (196) (163) Afforestation (114) (89) 92 (19) 18 (14) 4 (56) Agricultural Soil C Sequestration 32 (77) 10 (25) (83) (13) (148) (2) (167) (27) Biofuel Offsets* (11) (82) (11) (133) (11) (135) (11) (185) (11) (241) Agricultural CH4&N2O Fossil Fuel from Crop Production^ C Sequestration on Developed Land # - (84) - (80) - (76) - (72) - (69) Total Total without Biofuels *Emissions avoided from substituting biomass for fossil fuels ^Emissions from direct use of fossil fuels in agricultural production # Carbon sequestration on land that is converted for development assumes 20% paved over soil, 40% grassland, and 40% forests U.S. EPA, Updated Forestry and Agriculture Marginal Abatement Cost Curves. Memorandum to John Conti, EIA, March 31, 2009.

23 Multi Pollutant Legislative Analysis: The Clean Air Planning Act (Carper, S.843 in 108th) October 2005

24 Multi Pollutant Legislative Analysis: The Clean Air Planning Act (Carper, S.843 in 108th) October 2005

25 EPA Analysis of The Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007 S. 280 in 110thCongress July 16, 2007

26 EPA Analysis of The Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007 S. 280 in 110thCongress July 16, 2007

27 EPA Analysis of the Lieberman Warner Climate Security Act of 2008 S in 110th Congress March 14, 2008

28 EPA Analysis of the Lieberman Warner Climate Security Act of 2008 S in 110th Congress March 14, 2008