UCS Approach for Strengthening the Renewable Targets in EPA s Clean Power Plan

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1 UCS Approach for Strengthening the Renewable Targets in EPA s Clean Power Plan October

2 Key Takeaways EPA s renewable targets are modest UCS approach improves on EPA s methodology by building off demonstrated success of leading states UCS approach leads to more renewables and CO 2 reductions in every region and nearly every state ~40% national CO 2 reduction below 2005 levels Defensible and affordable approach for achieving BSER Minimal effect on electricity prices & lower natural gas prices 2

3 Power plants are the largest source of U.S. heat-trapping emissions 40% of CO 2 emissions 32% of total GHG emissions A major source of mercury, SO 2, NOx, particulates, lead...

4 Impacts of climate change are here and likely to worsen

5 Best System of Emission Reduction (BSER) Based on 4 Building Blocks - Improve coal unit heat rate by 6% Boiler NGCC - Re-dispatch coal to natural gas - Increase average NGCC utilization to 70% - Achieve average regional renewable growth targets - Avoid retirement of 6% nuclear fleet - Complete new nuclear in construction - Annual incremental electricity savings rate of 1.5 percent

6 Adjusted Output-Weighted Average CO2 Emission Rates in Lbs CO2/MWh BASELINE EMISSION RATE = (fossil emissions) baseline (fossil generation) baseline + (RE + Nuc) baseline = (coal + oil/gas + NGCC + other) baseline emissions (lbs. CO 2 ) (coal + oil/gas + NGCC + other) baseline + (RE + Nuc) baseline generation (MWh) 2030 STATE GOAL = re-dispatched fossil CO 2 emissions emissions (lbs. CO 2 ) baseline fossil generation + clean energy goal + EE goal generation (MWh)

7 EPA Proposed Approach Regional Renewables RPS Target 25% 15% 21% 16% 20% 10% 7 7

8 % of Electricity Sales EPA s National Renewables Targets Are Modest EIA Business as Usual 14% 12% 10% 8% EPA Proposed Approach EPA Alternative Approach* 9% 8% 7% 10% 12% 12% 6% 4% 2% 0% *excluding existing hydro 8

9 2030 targets in 7 states below 2013 generation levels

10 2030 targets in 17 states below requirements under existing RES laws Renewable electricity standard EPA target below RES requirement

11 Demonstrated Renewables Growth Approach Calculated national benchmark renewables growth rate of 1% of electricity sales/year from States below benchmark ramp-up to 1% by 2020 States at or above benchmark grow at their 5-year average growth rate up to a maximum rate 1.5% In each year, states achieve greater of growth rate approach or required RPS target Renewables capped at 40% of electricity sales per state Added 2013 renewable generation from EIA, distributed PV, and wind & utility solar under construction from

12 % of Electricity Sales UCS vs. EPA National Renewables Targets 25% EIA Business as Usual 23% 20% EPA Proposed Approach UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach 15% 14% 10% 9% 10% 12% 7% 5% 0% *excluding existing hydro 12

13 UCS Approach Leads to More Renewables in Every Region (renewable % of electricity sales in 2030) 24% 24% 16% 9% 14% 31% 14% 20% 16% 17% 27% 7% 14% EPA Proposed Approach UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach 13

14 UCS Approach Requires Only Small Fraction of Renewable Resources Available in Each Region 0.2% 2.2% 0.2% 1.6% 0.2% 0.5% Regional Targets from UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach in 2030 as % of RE Technical Potential

15 UCS Renewable Energy Targets are Affordable 12 Average Consumer Electricity Price (2013c/kWh) 7 Average Power Sector Natural Gas Price (2013$/million BTU) maximum 0.3% increase in % reduction by ReEDS Business as Usual UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach

16 Power Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) More Renewables Deliver Greater Carbon Reductions 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Emissions EPA Modeling of CPP (30% below 2005 levels) Additional Reductions, UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach

17 Power Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) Deeper Cuts are Needed to Address Climate Change 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Emissions EPA Modeling of CPP (30% below 2005 levels) Additonal Reductions, UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach NRC Carbon Budget

18 UCS Approach Results in More Wind and Solar PV 1,000 EPA Proposed Approach Renewables Generation (GWh) 1,000 UCS Approach Renewables Generation (GWh) Solar Thermal Solar PV Landfill Gas Biomass Geothermal Wind

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20 % of Electricity Sales UCS 2030 Demonstrated Growth Approach Sensitivity Analysis 25% 22.9% 22.3% 21.9% 23.1% 23.3% 25.3% UCS Proposed Demonstrated RE Growth Approach No RES Constraint 20% 20.3% 1% Growth Rate for All States 15% RE Generation Capped at 33% of Electricity Sales 10% No Maximum Cap on State Growth Rate 5% No Cap on RE Genereration 0% No Cap on State Grow Rate or RE Generation 20

21 Recommendations EPA should expand the role of renewables in establishing state emissions rate reduction targets EPA should review and strengthen state emissions reduction and renewables targets by 2025 States and the EPA should implement measures to prevent double counting of renewables States should prepare to develop and implement strong compliance plans 21

22 For More Information Contact: Megan Rising More Details and Link to Report: Blogs: