Gas Market Analysis Tool January 2017

Transcription

1 Gas Market Analysis Tool January 2017 Cover Note: This document is provided to you or your company ( You ) by Energy Edge Pty Ltd in accordance with the Consultancy Agreement between You and Energy Edge Pty Ltd. The use of this document is to be made in accordance with the Consultancy Agreement and the conditions as described on the final page. You should read and be familiar with the Consultancy Agreement and the conditions prior to making use of this document. Nothing in this document is intended to constitute financial product advice as defined by the Financial Services Reform Act. This document should not be used to make decisions on financial products or specific derivative transactions. You should seek specific financial product advice prior to making any decisions relating to such transactions.

2 Contents 1 Energy Edge Gas Market Analysis Tool Delivery Mechanism Features Wholesale Gas Markets - Gas Production Facilities Wholesale Gas Markets Gas Powered Generation Wholesale Gas Markets - Gas Flow Analysis Market Overview Short term market dynamics LNG Timeline Curtis Island LNG Facilities Interactive Gas Map - Australian East Coast East Coast Retail Markets Short Term Trading Market (STTM) Gas Trading Hubs Wallumbilla Gas Supply Hub (WGSH) Victorian Retail Market - Declared Wholesale Gas Market (DWGM) Gas and Electricity Market Interaction Spark Spread Analysis Well Development and Gas Infrastructure Maps Data Export Capability Fee Structure of the Gas Market Analysis Tool Information Sources Information utilized for the Gas Market Analysis Tool (GMAT)... 17

3 1 Energy Edge Gas Market Analysis Tool Energy Edge has developed the Gas Market Analysis Tool (GMAT) as a dynamic web deployed system that incorporates all known gas usage and supplies across the Australia East coast markets using up to date data from a number of key gas supply, usage and transportation data sources. Energy Edge currently delivers the software capabilities through an online service to subscribing industry customers spanning gas users, gas generation, gas producers and financial institutions. Technical requirements and software licensing and access terms for the Gas Market Analysis Tool can be delivered in an appendix document. The current terms for the Gas Market Analysis Tool can be found in section Delivery Mechanism The Gas Market Analysis Tool is delivered to clients through the freely available Google Chrome internet browser. Energy Edge maintains the application software and comprehensive market databases on our own server. Our software continually processes incoming gas and electricity market data to generate insightful tables, plots, data and graphics. Users need only access the secure, password-protected URL to gain access to the full range of features and reports. The product is distributed and licensed on a corporation-wide product subscription basis with the only requirement that users register and use their own accounts. Separate and related entities require their own subscription.

4 1.2 Features Wholesale Gas Markets - Gas Production Facilities Registered Gas Production Facilities The Gas Market Analysis Tool currently illustrates the gas production through blocks of daily, weekly or monthly granularity with data updated on a daily update cycle for each and every registered gas bulletin board facility in Eastern Australia where the data is shown from January Figure 1 - East Coast Consumption (by Asset Class) between 2012 and Unregistered Gas Production facilities The Gas Market Analysis Tool also covers an estimate of the flows from unregistered facilities, such as Tipton West and Daandine with the best level of granularity and update cycle possible Aggregation and navigation of Gas facilities The Gas Market Analysis Tool has developed to allow for aggregation by gross facility, consumption type and gross upstream and downstream equity ownership. The data can be further split across regional (state) and sub-regional (hub locations) boundaries.

5 1.2.2 Wholesale Gas Markets Gas Powered Generation Daily Aggregated Gas Usage The Gas Market Analysis Tool includes the gas usage for each Gas-Powered Generator, calculated on a half-hourly and aggregated basis to a daily rate, based on the AEMO EMMS dispatch generation and technical heat rates for each individual DUID. Figure 2 Queensland Gas Generator Gas Consumption (by Facility) Market Shippers It is currently planned to include the shipper quantities calculated in the STTM and DWGM sections below in the wholesale market overviews to get a clearer understanding of the total market net long and short positions.

6 1.2.3 Wholesale Gas Markets - Gas Flow Analysis Figure 3 Sample of Victoria Gas Flow Analysis (9 Aug 2015) The Gas Flow (Sankey) graph shows the gas flows from upstream ownership through production facilities to notional and physical gas hubs. From here, the gas is delivered to gas generation, other gas hubs and retail and industrial markets with their respective owners. This helps people without direct knowledge of the physical flows and arrangements to view the interconnectivity of the market.

7 1.2.4 Market Overview Short term market dynamics The market overview gives a short term (five days forward and historical view) of the market dynamics including LNG consumption, summary and detailed retail market outcomes and gas generation dispatch in each region. Figure 4 - Market Overview Snapshot

8 1.2.5 LNG Timeline Curtis Island LNG Facilities The Curtis LNG Timeline deeply investigates supply and demand of gas for each of the three LNG facilities located on Curtis Island, Gladstone; QCLNG, APLNG and GLNG. The supply side investigates the historical and forecast gas transported to the assets with the demand for the LNG feedstock based on the known and forecast shipping schedules for LNG vessels that have or will visit each of the LNG docks. This is then paired with the calculated auxiliary losses at site to produce a daily storage estimate for each asset. This detail provides a vision of the gas usage and supply to facilities for up to two weeks in advance. Figure 5 LNG Vessels Timeline at Curtis Island (based on vessel and location) Figure 6 - QCLNG Daily Gas Consumption, LNG Exports and Onsite Storage Capacity

9 1.2.6 Interactive Gas Map - Australian East Coast The Interactive Gas Map provides an overview for a single day while providing clean and easy access to historical behaviour with a mouse over on any class (production, demand, generation and LNG) within a region or pipeline between regions. Figure 7 - Interactive Gas Map (30 Nove 2015) with onhover for Moomba to Adelaide Pipeline

10 1.2.7 East Coast Retail Markets Short Term Trading Market (STTM) STTM Market Summary The Gas Market Analysis Tool includes a number of Short Term Trading Market (STTM) specific reports for the Brisbane, Sydney and Adelaide hubs, including the shipper flows (highlighted in Figure 8) and bid and offer curves STTM Sensitivity Analysis Through the process of calculating and processing each pipeline s shipper bids and offers, the Gas Market Analysis Tool can also produce the bid and offer stacks coloured by owner s corporate colours. From this data, a decision support system of the ex ante market sensitivities can be implemented that shows the resultant market outcomes for additional injections into the hub or withdrawals/backhauls from the hub. These results can be seen in Figure 8 as the grey shadow around the black line which represents the ex ante market price. Figure 8 Example of Sydney STTM Shipper Schedules with STTM ex-ante and Sensitivity

11 1.2.8 Gas Trading Hubs Wallumbilla Gas Supply Hub (WGSH) WGSH Market Summary The Gas Market Analysis Tool investigates the Wallumbilla Gas Supply Hub (and will incorporate the Moomba Gas Supply Hub) with comparisons against the local retail markets (Brisbane STTM in this case) and the local gas generation unit revenue. This helps provide context to the each of the gas prices and the possible spark spread or transportation arbitrage that is available. Figure 9 Wallumbilla Gas Supply Hub Pricing and Volume (May 2016 to Oct 2016)

12 1.2.9 Victorian Retail Market - Declared Wholesale Gas Market (DWGM) DWGM Integration Figure 10 - Example of DWGM Schedule Summary (Netted Injection and Withdrawals highlighted by Owner) The Victorian Declared Wholesale Gas Market has been covered using the same familiar structure as the Short Term Trading Market (STTM). The data can be navigated by day, by injection, withdrawal or netted position, and by individual injection and withdrawal locations Bid/Offer Stacks and Sensitivity Analysis Individual schedules have been calculated from the actual bid and offer schedules. Through the process of this analysis, it is easy therefore to show those bid and offer stacks. From that point, the stacks have been manipulated to show, all other things being equal, the price sensitivities for additional 10TJ of injections or withdrawals.

13 Gas and Electricity Market Interaction Spark Spread Analysis The short-term market report has been developed and covers the electricity generation by fuel type, with forecast demand, availability and dispatch where available. The report also includes the avenues to market chart for gas, including the local wholesale gas market and wholesale electricity market for the generation type (i.e. OCGT and CCGT). Finally, there will also be a chart to show the individual site based generation. All of the graphics are interchangeable to be based on either electricity ($ per MWh) or gas ($ per GJ). Figure 11 Spark Spread Analysis

14 Well Development and Gas Infrastructure Maps The Well Development and Gas Infrastructure Map shows the well development by owner, gas compression facility and petroleum lease, as well as the gas infrastructure including gas generation, production facilities, pipelines and industrial loads. The well development graph can be used to compare the drilling progress on a weekly basis by facility and ownership to gauge the development rate of both new and existing production facilities. Figure 12 Gas Wells and Infrastructure Map with graphic of Drilled Boreholes in Qld

15 1.3 Data Export Capability The Gas Market Analysis Tool has been developed to date with two key drivers in mind; gas market navigation and gas data accessibility. The Gas Market Analysis Tool has been designed with clear and responsive graphic interpretations of the underlying gas data. This has been combined with a simple tool bar navigation and clear reports which cover a number of different aspects of the gas and electricity markets for analysts and market traders in mind. The data accessibility has been implemented through single-click data download buttons associated with every graphic within GMAT. This will download the represented underlying data as Excel / CSV format or PNG image format. The goal here is that while the pre-defined reports will cover most of the market data; market analysts will always want the ability to extract the data for internal reporting or decision support functions.

16 2 Fee Structure of the Gas Market Analysis Tool The Subscription Fee structure for the Gas Market Analysis Tool is available on request but is based on a single fee for entire corporate wide access. All subscription service fees also includes the ongoing maintenance of the system. Detailed terms and conditions can be provided on request for your review.

17 3 Information Sources 3.1 Information utilized for the Gas Market Analysis Tool (GMAT) Utilizing our existing proprietary systems and skilled human resources, Energy Edge has been able to collate, pre process, filter and post process data into a format that is easy to use and understand for analysts and traders. The following table provides an example of the data sources that have been utilized in the development of the Gas Market Analysis Tool. Table 1 GMAT Information Sources and Processing Methodology Information Translation and Interpretation Source Gas Bulletin Energy Edge maintained Gas Energy Edge maintained database Board Bulletin Board database conversion and replication of the AEMO provided Gas Bulletin Board CSV reports. Short Term Energy Edge maintained Short Energy Edge maintained database Trading Market Term Trading Market database conversion and replication of the AEMO provided Short Term Trading Market CSV reports. Declared Energy Edge maintained Energy Edge maintained database Wholesale Gas Declared Wholesale Gas conversion and replication of the Market Market database AEMO provided Declared Wholesale Gas Market CSV reports. Production and Asset Ownership Structure Gas-powered Generation Gas Consumption Non-Gas Bulletin Board Production Physical Gas Market Structure and Geo-Maps LNG Shipping Schedules Energy Edge research into the ownership structures of the Gas production, generation and retail, commercial and industrial load throughout Australia Utilizing a combination of the electricity energy generation, combined with Energy Edge understanding of the natural gas utilized by all GPG in Australia. Utilizing Energy Edge research, the gas production of non-gas Bulletin Board producers has been estimated. Utilizing Energy Edge research, the physical network structure of the gas market. LNG Tanker movements and shipping schedules at the Gladstone port Various public sources of information in terms of ownership details including Media Releases, Website detail, investor relations and interpolation. AEMO provided Electricity Market Management System (EMMS) which provides the energy outputs of all gas generators throughout Australia. Various public sources of information including Queensland and Federal government reports Various public sources of information including gas pipeline, production and gas generation infrastructure maps and GIS data, as well as investor relations and company gas market reports Primarily sourced from Maritime Safety Queensland with additional LNG vessel details

18 Final Page Disclaimer: The information and advice contained in this document has been prepared by Energy Edge Pty Ltd ( Energy Edge ) in accordance with the Consultancy Agreement ( the Terms ) between you or your company ( You ) and Energy Edge and should be read and acted upon in accordance with these conditions and the Terms. In preparing this document, Energy Edge has relied upon information and variables provided by You and its accuracy and suitability is dependent upon such information. Where information provided by You is inaccurate or incomplete, Energy Edge will not be liable to any extent where such deficiency adversely affects the viability or correctness of the contents of this document While exercising all care in the preparation of this advice, Energy Edge does not make any representations or warranties in relation to its content and expressly excludes all terms implied by legislation or otherwise, except to the extent that such implied term cannot, pursuant to law, be excluded. Liability in respect of such an implied term is, however, restricted to the extent as provided for in the Terms and You use the information and advice contained in this document at your own risk. Except as is expressly provided for in the Terms, Energy Edge retains all intellectual property rights in relation to this document including, without limitation, copyright in its contents. You are granted a licence to use this document as provided for in the Terms, but to no other extent. This document is supplied on these conditions, which you expressly accept and agree to by retaining this document or acting upon its contents. If you do not agree with these conditions, you must not act on the contents of this document and must return it to Energy Edge immediately.