Dr. I Tsung Tsai; Dr. S; Dr. Sanaa El Waddi; Dr. Zhanna Kapsalyamova; Dr. Ali Diabat Masdar Institute of Science and Technology

Transcription

1 Dr. I Tsung Tsai; Dr. S; Dr. Sanaa El Waddi; Dr. Zhanna Kapsalyamova; Dr. Ali Diabat Masdar Institute of Science and Technology EU GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK 2 nd ANNUAL NETWORK CONFERENCE January, 2012, Abu Dhabi, UAE

2 Agenda Research Questions & Background Research Progress Conclusion

3 Research Questions s How to regulate CO2 price to align CCS with EOR and CDM? What is the optimal regulatory lt scope of carbon capture? How will CCS affect energy supply demand dprofile?

4 Current Status of CCS A known technology However, limited incentive to deploy: Unproved commercial scale feasibility High capture cost Likelihood of leakage Energy Penalty

5 However, Things are Changing.. International Regulation COP 16 CDM extends from 2012 to 2020 CCS projects eligible ibl for CDM Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Domestic policy Emission reduction projects in non Annex 1 countries earn Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) Credited against baseline. CERs then sold to Annex 1 countries to meet emission reduction targets. Regulation established in certain countries/regions(i.e. Australia, Canada, etc.) A lot to do with health, safe, security, environment Less on economics Technology Pilot projects on commercial scale CCS are underway.

6 Existing CCS Projects (updated December, 2011) Source:

7 Why CCS? IEA Energy Technology Perspectives (IEA 006): CCSinpowergeneration generation, industry, and synfuel production could contribute to 20% to 28% of the effort to reduce global emissions by CCS is a cheaper alternative to reduce carbon emissions especially for developingcountries. CCS may enhance energy security especially for countries with large reserves of: Crude oil Coal Natural gas Others Carbon Capture for Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)

8 Interactions among CCS, FF, RE Static Effects Substitution between CCS Renewable energy Energy efficiency in meeting carbon emission reduction targets Substitution between Crude oil Coal Gas in meeting demand for fossil fuel Dynamic Effects Timing to meet portfolio standard; CO 2 reduction targets

9 Effects Likely to be Fueled by Capital Mobility Across Regions and Sectors Sector excess return Region Carbon Price Effects Effect Difference (Europe-US) US (0.0012) Utilities 01736*** (0.0373) 0373) Europe *** (0.0026) Oil and gas exploration and production Alternative energy Oil and gas equipment and service Airlines US ** (0.0021) Europe * 3 (0.0017) US (0.0059) Europe ** (0.0011) US 00267**( ** (0.029) 029) Europe ** (0.02) US (0.0035) Europe (0.0019) *** (0.0299) (0.0671) (0.0296) (0.0455) Standard errors in brackets. *, ** and *** show significance at the 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence level Aegisson V I Tsai Kapsalyamova Z "Carbon Regulation and Firm Competitiveness: An Empirical Study" Aegisson, V., I. Tsai, Kapsalyamova, Z. Carbon Regulation and Firm Competitiveness: An Empirical Study, The 14th Annual Electric Utilities Environmental Conference, Jan 31 Feb 2, Phoenix, (2011).

10 Puzzles on the Economic Side of CCS Will CO2 price affect overall energy demand? Maybe.. production may increase if abatement cost is cheaper? What is the socially optimal CO2 price? Need to consider both economic and environmental value added How will CCS affect energy supply/demand profile? For oil producing countries? For Countries with abundant coal reserve? For developing countries Note: Energy security is highly relevant

11 Research Roadmap Optimal lccs Regulation to meet economic and environmental needs Takes into accounts: CCS in CDM Cost Competitiveness CCS Renewable Energy Clean coal Shift of CO2 End Use (storage EOR) Energy Penalty Energy Security Global & regional energy supply/demand analysis Takes into accounts: Non CCS Int l carbon regulation Free trade

12 Research Progress: Optimal CO 2 price to Align CCS with EOR and CDM A theoretical model on optimal CCS regulation: Considering Shift of CO 2 End Use (storage EOR) CCS in CDM Investment for more carbon efficient production Policy instruments Tax Subsidy Liability for Leakage Key assumptions: Storage: small possibility of large scale leakage EOR with either gas or CO 2 Preliminary analysis completed.

13 Model: Key Features Social welfare W=U+π+V D Where U: Consumer surplus π : Producer surplus V: Benefits from substitution of CO 2 for gas in EOR D: Social disutility from CO 2 emission

14 Modeling Structure Producer makes Int l gas price and carbon CO2 is sold to EOR or storage decision on g and e price are realized depending on prices Regime 1: No carbon regulation, no CCS, no EOR Regime 2: Impose carbon tax, no CCS, no EOR Regime 3: No carbon tax, allows CCS, no EOR Regime 4: Impose carbon tax, no CCS, allows EOR

15 Model Variables Key variables g: Primary goods production e: emission abatement investment b: carbon emissions i t: carbon tax Other variables p g : price of primary goods p ic : Int l carbon price p i : int l gas price c: production cost of primary goods k: CO 2 capture cost α, β, γ: cost coefficients φ: probability of p ic >p s

16 Analytical Process Step 1: Solving for g*, e*, and t* Producer maximizes π g*, g, e* Social planner maximizes W given π* t* Step 2: Identifying W(t*) (*) Step 3: Identifying contingent t*(p g, p ic )

17 Preliminary Findings Theoretically, CCS deployment increases industrial production (and so do power demands and CO2 emissions). ) Multiplier effects through higher income may further push up power demand. Magnitude of power demand increase decreases with probability of leakage. production production production Pigovian Tax CCS EOR

18 Research Progress: OptimalCO2 Capture Regulatory Scope An empirical project that studies optimal regulatory scope of CO2 capture for Abu Dhabi Collaborator: Masdar Carbon Status: Newly started. Analytical Approach Identifying CO2 capture cost and energy penalty in targeted industrial processes under different capture technologies. Identifying CO2 needed for EOR under various scenarios of OPEC production quota for the UAE, calculating the substituted gas for EOR. Eti Estimating potential ti carbon credit revenue from Clean development tmechanism under CO2 price scenarios. Performing decision analysis to identify optimal CCS regulatory scope with the above information.

19 Research Progress: Effects of CCS Deployment on Energy Profile Plan to start soon Analytical approach: Computational General Equilibrium Modeling (CGEM) Look forward to collaboration with peers here.

20 Conclusions Positive perspective for CCS deployment: Strong motivation Incentives from CDM Need to enhance understanding on: Optimal CCS regulation (i.e. CO2 price) and regulatory scope Change of energy supply/demand profile as a result of CCS deployment Energy security is critical in understanding consequence of CCS deployment