Baltic Energy Security and Independence NATO Advanced Research Workshop Developing Common Investments for Energy and Energy Security
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1 Baltic Energy Security and Independence NATO Advanced Research Workshop Developing Common Investments for Energy and Energy Security Vilnius, June, 2004
2 Baltic Energy Cooperation for Security of Supply Agreement on Cooperation in the Energy Sector (signed between the Ministries in charge of energy affairs of the three Baltic countries) Baltic Energy Strategy (adopted by the Baltic Council of Ministers and the Baltic Assembly) Security of supply considered as an essential objective of a regional co-operation Interconnections important measure to improve the overall security of supply
3 Key Elements to the Success Country case study Extension to the regional case study Continuity of methodology Data consistency Risk factors Project ranking Review and integration of related sectors projects Financial attractiveness of selected projects Partners selection
4 Review of the Eastern Baltic Gas Sector Main findings of the EBRD funded study: Updating of the Gas Sector Development Plan in Lithuania and its Interface with Gas Sector Development in Latvia, Estonia, NW Russia, Belarus and Poland Consultant: RAMBOLL (Denmark), November 2003
5 Objectives Update of market developments for the eastern Baltic Sea Region (BSR) Energy balances on supply and demand Update potential gas development projects Implementation of the EC Gas Directive in the region Identification and ranking of regional gas interconnectors Identification and ranking of potential gas storage projects Identification and ranking of potential Lithuanian gas infrastructure projects Final recommendations
6 Potential Gas Interconnectors EU Amber Project (1) BalticPipe (2) Finland Estonia (3) Mid Nordic Pipeline (4) Mid Nordic Gas Grid (5) Baltic Gas Interconnector (6) North European Pipeline (7) Bernau Sczecin(8)
7 Scope of study work Compliance with EC Energy Objectives and Regulation Classification of potential projects into gas interconnectors, gas storage projects and Lithuanian gas infrastructure projects Evaluate economic and technical feasibility based on Least-cost criteria Socio-economic impact Capacity analysis Security of supply
8 Scope of study work (cont.) Update gas supply potential and gas demand for the region Comparison of gas demand and gas supply capacity for BSR Identify demand-supply gaps and bottlenecks SWOT analysis of the examined projects Ranking of the examined projects and propose further actions
9 Investment overview Cost estimates Investment Length Volume unit transportation cost Capacity unit transportation cost Project MEUR km mcm/day MEUR mcm/d mcm/day MEUR/mcm/d EUR/tcm/km/d Trans-regional project North European Regional interconnector Amber (Den-Lit) Amber (Pol-Lit) Estonia-Finland Storage projects Incukalns Vaskai Romanowo Lithuanian infrastructure Border Meter Station Ignalina NPP Ring connection Compressor Mazeikiai Source: RAMBØLL
10 Existing gas system in the BSR Not in operation Not in operation
11 Gas transmission network in Lithuania
12 Overall project score from qualitative comparison Trans-Regional and Regional interconnectors North European Pipeline Amber project (Den-Lit) Amber project (Pol-Lit) Estonian-Finnish Gas Connector Storage projects Enlargement of Incukalns UGS Vaskai UGS in Lithuania Romanowo UGS in Kaliningrad Lithuanian infrastructure Border Meter Station at Latvian border New Pipeline to Ignalina NPP New Ring Pipeline Sakiai-Kleipeda New Compressor Station at Jauniunai Gas Supply to Mazeikai Refinery Criterion A Regional impact Criterion C Project risk Criterion B National impact Criterion D Environment Source: RAMBØLL
13 Comparing the projects impact on security of supply SOS Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland Base Case North European Amber (Den-Lit) Amber (Pol-Lit) Estonia-Finland Incualns Vaskai Romanowo Border Meter Station Source: RAMBØLL
14 Area 1 - Gas supply demand balance under extreme supply situations Pipeline from Russia Pipeline from Belarus Incukalns/Latvia Incukalns/Russia mcm/day Total Supply Winter Supply Total Potential Gas Supply Disruption of Belarus Supply 15 Disruption of Incukalns Gas Storage Winter Supply (No import to Latvia) Expected max day 2010 Winter Supply & disruption of Belarus supply max day 2002 Winter Supply & disruption of Incukalns Source: RAMBØLL
15 Potential gas supplies from pipeline and storage projects mcm/day Pipelines Gas Storages North European 25 Amber Den-Lit Amber Lit-Pol Estonia- Finland 15 Incukalns UGS 11 Vaskai UGS 30 Romanowo UGS Source: RAMBØLL
16 Area 2 - Gas supply demand balance under extreme supply situations mcm/day Russia I Incukalns UGS Russia II 40 Belarus - Lithuania Russia III Nevskoye/Gatchinskoy UGS 40 North European Pipeline & max day 2010 max day Total Potential Gas Supply Disruption of Russia III supply Disruption of Russia II supply Disruption of Nevsk./Gatchi. UGS Source: RAMBØLL
17 Regional pipeline projects Investment cost per 1000 m 3 per km, in EUR 13,4 13,2 13,0 12,8 12,6 Latvia - SOS of the projects 12,9 12,9 13,3 12,4 12,2 12,0 11,8 12,3 12,3 12,3 12,3 12,3 12,3 Base Case No rth European Amber (Den-Lit) Amber (Pol-Lit) Es tonia-finland Incualns Vaskai Romanowo Border M eter Station Source: RAMBØLL
18 Project evaluation summary Cost estimates Investment Length Volume unit transportation cost Capacity unit transportation cost Project MEUR km mcm/day MEUR mcm/d mcm/day MEUR/mcm/d EUR/tcm/km/d Trans-regional project North European Regional interconnector Amber (Den-Lit) Amber (Pol-Lit) Estonia-Finland Storage projects Incukalns Vaskai Romanowo Lithuanian infrastructure Border Meter Station Ignalina NPP Ring connection Compressor Mazeikiai Source: RAMBØLL
19 Summary of study Strong economic development and GDP growth in the BSR region Strong regional increase in energy and specifically gas demands Regional interconnectors: High performance in particular for the North European Pipeline and the Amber project Gas storage projects: High performance for enlargement of Incukalns UGS and need for diversification of storage plants Lithuanian infrastructure: High performance for Lithuanian/Latvian border meter station, gas supply to Ignalina NPP and development of Vaskai UGS
20 Main findings of study Regional projects: Need for detailed financial feasibility analysis and formation of financing plans Vaskai UGS: Need for completion of additional surveys Ranking of projects changes depending on implementation and scope of large regional projects (NEP or Trans Baltic, Amber, etc.) Implementation of these projects depends on decisions of Governments, stakeholders in BSR gas sector (eg Ruhrgas/E.ON and Gazprom) and availability of funding
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