Solar-Energy Co-operation Europe Africa

Transcription

1 Solar-Energy Co-operation Europe Africa European Climate Stabilisation Efforts Dr. Gerhard Knies Hamburger Klimaschutz-Fonds HKF Formerly research physicist at DESY

2 Global Solar Economy a Chance???: for Africa? 1. What is the position of Africa in the global context? 2. What is the developmental situation in Africa? 3. What can Africa do to cope with globalisation? (Better: How can humanity cope with globalisation?) 4. A development & climate-protection project with Europe 2

3 What is the position of Africa in the global context? Science and technology DESY/CERN Scientific data exchange connections In science&technology In science the profile Africa = of white Africa spot on isthe low world map! Africa needs science and technology transfer 3

4 What is the position of Africa in the global context? Wars and crisis centres in 2002 Political stability of Africa is very bad. A nightmare for long term investors 4

5 What is the position of Africa in the global context? The 49 poorest countries on earth. Africa is the world centre of poverty. Africa needs fair participation in the world economy 5

6 GNP % Agrar Developmental Trace and Gap GNP and agricultural share of countries in Africa and in Europe Africa 1 tonco 2 /cap >60% rural population GNP $/cap < 20% rural population 8 tons CO 2 /cap W-Europe Development in Africa, EU Development: Lowest level: People work only for bare survival:gnp ~100% agriculture Developed level: growing access to lifestyle, education&science, comfort technology??? GNP/cap grows, fraction for food goes down GNP from export of minerals and oil is counter-productive: rather destruct than product 6

7 Development in Africa Drama: GNP/cap in very low developed countries goes down. In last 10 years: Middle Africa -30% North Africa +/- 15% South Africa +30% Europe +30% Developmental gap grows with progressing globalisation!!! Global middle and upper classes are developing Global poverty class is in developmental agony self healing does not work (brain drain?), external connections are needed! 7

8 Development in Africa : NEPAD Quotation from the Founding document (October 2001) for The NEW PARTNERSHIP for AFRICA S DEVELOPMENT (NEPAD) The poverty and backwardness of Africa stand in stark contrast to the prosperity of the developed world. The continued marginalisation of Africa from the globalisation process and the social exclusion of the vast majority of its peoples constitute a serious threat to global stability. 8

9 Development and Climate Stability? Can we get both at the same time? NO: Develop t requires more and cheap energy: more CO 2 Financial resources Either to Develop t Or to climate prot. projects Develop t & eradication of poverty are pressing issues in poverty countries Climate stabilisation is long term duty of rich countries YES: Climate change contributes to poverty (floods, storms, rising sea level, new diseases, ) Climate change hurts the poor more than the rich, individuals and countries. Climate stability is precondition for lasting development. Deadlock: Development = obstacle for climate stabilty Climate stability = precondition for sustainable develop t 9

10 What can Africa do? Africas Trump Card: Solar Radiation Collector Area for 2500 TWh/y 100 x 100 km² Distribution of the solar electricity generating potential by solar thermal power plants, in GWh/km²y, (areal resolution of map: 25x25km²) Source: DLR/WBGU calculated from radiation data by G. Czisch (ISET) 10

11 Africa s Trump Cards: Clean Electricity from its Superior Solar Radiation and Wind Renewable energies are everywhere but they come with large differences. Yields for solar and wind power Germany SOLAR power from 1 km² area GWh/year 100 WIND power Annual full load hours h/y South Spain Africa Up to 300 Morocco

12 Development via Climate stabilisation? Thesis: If the highly developed countries in Europe would buy solar and wind electricity at a volume relevant for their climate protection, like 20% or more of their consumption, from less developed countries in North Africa, and if those get organised to produce it then 1. Europe could reduce its excessive and aggressive CO2 emissions faster and at lower cost than unplugged from Africa 2. climate change hazards like desertification in North-, and floods in Middle- Africa could be alleviated, or limited 3. Africa would earn money from the work of its people (some 10 Mrd. /y) instead from selling its minerals. 4. North-Africa could gain billions of m³ of fresh water thru desalination in cogeneration. (~ 1 Nile) 5. After cost reduction for solar energy to below energy from oil (25$/bbl) in the North also Middle Africa can take advantage Exercise: try to think for the rest of the talk Europe as North Africa Africa as South Europe 12

13 Potential EU - NEPAD Project Development in Africa thru Solar Power for Europe as if there were no borders Power lines Africa Europe = developmental life-lines for Africa? Solar Complex Wind Hydro power Geothermal HVDC Power Lines possible extensions power loss 3% at 1000 km Figure after Czisch (ISET) and Trieb (DLR) 13

14 Solar thermal complex: Electricity, water, salt, agriculture Parameters Electric power Operating hours Range: MW Typical: 100 Range: h/y (with solar storage) Power yield Water yield Collector size 100 MW, 4000h/a 400 GWh/y local people 100 MW, 8000h/y 30 Mio m³/y local people 100 MW, 4000h/a 1,5 km² sector sizes not to scale 14

15 Concentrating Solar Collectors for Solar Complex Gardening in the shade (like oasis) a: Flat mirror collector (comp. animation), simple & cheap construction, shaded area under collector useful > 50% added value in Africa possible : b: parabolic trough (Cramer junction), proven in real operation since 10 years many specialised parts, complicated installation 15

16 Old and new relation Europe - Africa CO 2 emissions EU, Fortress development CO 2 emi Mt/a EU, FEED-IN regulation development fossil fuels, raw materials migrants, brain drain, climate change HVTG, solar electricity 250 TWh/a fresh water 10 Mrd.m³/a technowledge cash, ca. 10 Mrd. /a development 100+ distributed solar complexes power&desalination NEPAD development salt water sun salt water sun PRESENT SITUATION African countries deliver cheap raw materials as basis of the wealth in Europe. FUTURE SITUATION Africa generates and delivers clean electricity for Europe. They become parts of a technological and economical circuit. 16

17 Synergy gains of an African-European alliance for climate stabilisation by renewable energies Europe (EU) North Africa (NA) What EU is short of. Endangered by Global Climate Change Wind&Solar Technology Wind&Solar Radiation Capital Available Land & low cost labor Demand for Clean Energy Africa got it -- and vice versa EU separate CO 2 Reduction Capacity EU & NA jointly ( Alliance) NA separate Ideal configuration for an alliance 17

18 Plan of action: solar power&water in Africa Year Annual power demand TWh/y (+5%/y) Increase of demand over past 6 years, TWh/y Scenario for Solar Capacity extension, GW (+47%/y, = x10 in 6 years) Increase of solar electricity over past 6 years, TWh/y (at 4000 h/a, with solar heat storage) Co-generativ Water Desalination Capacity Mm³/y (at 8000h/y) ,1 +0, ,0 +3, , ,000 The solar capacity 80% of total NA power demand full capacity scattered over plants 9% of expected EU consumption of 4100TWh/a 44% of expected NA water deficit: 70,000 Mm³ ~ 1 Nile A determined solar power&water 25-year program (like a missile launch), with 6 years for factor 10, would serve well the developmental needs of North-Africa. 18

19 Reduction of Solar electricity cost Electricity Cost [Euro-cents/kWh] Solar Spain Hybrid Morocco Power & Water Egypt Electricity Cost of CSP-Plants for different environments and applications (calculated by F. Trieb, DLR): Solar electricity generation in Spain (Solar Share = 100%, Direct Normal Irradiation DNI = kwh/m²y, Capacity Factor CF = 20 % - 50 %), Hybrid electricity generation in Morocco (solar share = 25 % - 75 %, DNI = kwh/m²y, CF = 40 % - 75%), Hybrid co-generation of power and desalinated water in Egypt (solar share = 25 % - 75 %, DNI = kwh/m²y, CF = 85 %, revenue for desalted water = 1 Euro/m³). General economic assumptions: discount rate 8 %, plant life 25 years, fuel cost 4 Euro/GJ, escalation 0.5 %/y. Cost reduction thru mass production of collectors, in Africa competivity with oil at 25$/bbl within a few years 19

20 A challenge to NEPAD Why NEPAD? The African states have already paved the way for such an effort, by founding the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) In proposing the partnership, Africa recognises that it holds the key to its own development. We affirm that the New Partnership for Africa s Development offers an historic opportunity for the developed countries of the world to enter into a genuine partnership with Africa, based on mutual interest, shared commitments and binding agreements The adoption of a development strategy as set out in the broad approach outlined above, together with a detailed programme of action, will mark the beginning of a new phase in the partnership and co-operation between Africa and the developed world. 20

21 A Marshall plan for climate&development UNDP, UNEP NEPAD African body for Africa s development EU Green House Gas reduction Europe African European 25-year Development-thru-solar-power&water project 21

22 Summary Africa on its own is in a very poor position to cope with the developments of globalisation. Old Europe and New Africa can exploit their tremendous synergies to resolve the conflict between economical development and climate stability. A solar power link can make the European obligations for GHG reduction to a motor for African development Europe and Africa can convert the Mediterranean from a divide between 2 worlds into a link between good neighbours. Globalisation is the transition from peoples to humanity 22