Contents. What is PLEXOS? Why use PLEXOS? Who uses PLEXOS? Services. Support. Training. Implementation. Datasets. Customisations.

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1 electricity

2 Contents The PLEXOS Integrated Energy Model What is PLEXOS? Why use PLEXOS? Who uses PLEXOS? Services Support Training Implementation Datasets Customisations PLEXOS Applications in Electricity Long Term Capacity Expansion Planning Transmission Planning Analysis Demand Modelling System Security and Adequacy Ancillary Services and Energy Co-Optimisation Optimally Times Maintenance Dispatch Optimisation Renewable Energy Planning and Integration Storage Multi-Stage Hydro and Storage Optimisation Market Analysis for Trading and Hedging Risk Analysis Electricity and Gas Co-Optimisation

3 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar p. 3 The PLEXOS Integrated Energy Model What is PLEXOS PLEXOS is economic software that uses mathematically based optimisation techniques for forecasting. Who uses PLEXOS PLEXOS integrated software offers something for everyone, making its applications highly useful to a variety of users and needs. PLEXOS is easy to use and offers the latest data handling, visualisation features, and distributed computing methods, to provide a highperformance, robust simulation system for electric power, water and gas. Why use PLEXOS An investment in PLEXOS is a small outlay compared to the enormous benefits that are realised from savings in costs, better ways to maximise profits and from achieving more accurate planning results. PLEXOS is not a Black Box and is highly configurable by the user. It offers cutting edge access to some of the most advanced algorithms and modelling techniques thus giving the user peace of mind and a real life simulation experience. Current users include: Departments of Energy and Ministries Market Operators, Regulators and Commissions Electricity Generators, Traders and Retailers Transmission System Operators Power Plant Manufacturers and Construction companies Gas Producers, Traders and Retailers LNG Operators and Traders Consultants, Analysts and Research Institutions Academics It s more than software it s a VIP gateway to a global community of users in over 43 countries. Expand your network and join the rapidly growing community of PLEXOS users.

4 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar p.4 Services SUPPORT Providing the best support is our first priority at Energy Exemplar. Our philosophy is to staff well and keep employing ahead of the curve. We currently have 25 PLEXOS experts in various regions and another 15 full time developers who are well placed to respond to your needs. All PLEXOS licenses come with free and unlimited support. TRAINING PLEXOS comes with comprehensive help files and a built in electronic Wiki. However, there is no substitute for taking one of our training courses. Select from a range of generic and customisable training courses which help new users get started or help more intermediate and advanced modellers improve their skills. Group training is also held in each region from time to time. IMPLEMENTATION The best forecasts come from a well calibrated and back-tested model. Energy Exemplar s PLEXOS analysts have a wealth of modelling experience from all over the world and undertake customised implementation projects very regularly. Some examples include dataset builds and back-tests, assistance with modelling configurations for projects, software optimisation for speed and accuracy, software installations, client-server configuration, automation of data entry and customised reports that link directly to simulation outputs. DATASETS Energy Exemplar have close to 30 datasets from all over the world in PLEXOS form and this number is growing as we are always working on a new one! If we don t have a certain country, we can work to build one on request. CUSTOMISATIONS If there is a feature you need which we don t have, you may request it and we will build it as part of a future release at no cost providing the benefit exists for other users as well. Alternatively, our development team regularly work on exclusive bespoke customisation projects. PLEXOS also comes with the Open- PLEXOS tool which allows users to make customisable changes by programming PLEXOS how you like.

5 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar p. 5 Long Term Capacity Expansion Planning COMPLEX PROBLEMS REQUIRE POWERFUL TOOLS. Let the advanced algorithms in PLEXOS provide the certainty of what, when, or where to optimally invest or retire from the point of view of considering generation and transmissions across electricity, gas and water. PLEXOS HAS BEEN THE ALL IN ONE TOOL FOR US FOR SUCH ANALYSIS, FROM MARKET MODELLING TO PLANNING, FORECASTING AND OPTIMISATION. WITH ITS PERFECTLY DESIGNED GUI, WE HAVE SAVED GREAT EFFORT IN FORMULATING COMPLEX PROBLEMS AS WELL AS GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME WITH ITS FAST AND FLEXIBLE SIMULATIONS. Mutlu Yildirim ETRM, Turkey

6 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar Long Term Capacity Expansion Planning p. 6 LP Plan Modelling Features Demand Side Participation Any Type of Generating Technologies Physical Generation and Load Contracts PLEXOS LT PLAN Transmission Dynamics Multi-Stage Generation & Transmission Projects Assign practically any rule with the constraint, decision variable and conditional classes. Regional capacity reserve margins & ancillary services. Maximum number of units built and retired. Technical and Financial life spans. Fuel availability and maximum fuel usage. Minimum energy production. Cogeneration and other must-run conditions. Emission production limits and Renewable Energy Targets. Hydroelectric storage targets and releasing policies.

7 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar Long Term Capacity Expansion Planning p. 7 The LT Plan is fully integrated with the other PLEXOS simulation phases to ensure seamless solutions. Users can run the LT Plan either separately or in sequence with any other phase. Once an investment decision is made in the LT Plan, this is automatically passed down to other integrated PLEXOS tools, such as ST which emulates a market clearing engine for more detailed analysis. LT Plan Optimal Investment PASA Optimal Reserve Sharing & Maintenance Schedule MT Schedule Resource Allocation ST Schedule Chronological Commitment Who uses PLEXOS LT Plan? Worldwide, an increasing number of Utilities, Consultants, Regulators and Independent System Operators use PLEXOS LT Plan for their capacity expansion modelling. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) relies on PLEXOS to develop the National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP), for which the modelling assumptions and PLEXOS LT database can be freely accessed at: Let Energy Exemplar help you take flight and soar above the rest. energyexemplar.com

8 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar p. 8 Transmission Planning and Analysis DON T GET tangled up and confused.

9 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar Transmission Planning and Analysis p. 9 PLEXOS is used extensively by transmission system operators (TSO) to optimise and analyse the impact of transmission operation and congestion costs. The ability to model optimal power flow (OPF) with losses is fully integrated with dispatch and unit commitment. PLEXOS features for transmission include: LARGE CONNECTION OF MULTIPLE AC AND DC NETWORKS 10,000 S OF BUSES AND LINES LOSS MODELLING SECURITY CONSTRAINTED UNIT COMMITMENT (SCUC), DC LINES AND PHASE SHIFTERS GENERIC CONSTRAINTS AND INTERFACE LIMITS, WHEELING CHARGES TRANSMISSION AGGREGATION AND NETWORK REDUCTION MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OUTAGES AND OPTIMAL TRANSMISSION SWITCHING LOCAL MARGINAL PRICE (LMP) DECOMPOSITION AND FINANCIAL TRANSMISSION RIGHTS (FTR) EVALUATION NODAL PRICING AND DECOMPOSITION INTO ENERGY, CONGESTION AND MARGINAL LOSS COMPONENTS In addition, PLEXOS LT phase allows analysts to identify optimal line investment of transmission upgrades and retirements. Let Energy Exemplar help you take flight and soar above the rest. energyexemplar.com

10 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar p. 10 Demand Modelling Powered by ADVANCED ALGORITHMS and a RAFT OF FEATURES, the PLEXOS build tool is the perfect companion for GROWING DEMAND TRACES. FORECAST DEMAND BY LINKING VARIABLES like temperature dependency and then append your newly created inputs to different models FOR FAST AND EASY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS.

11 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar Demand Modelling p. 11 The PLEXOS 3D Viewer Demand Response Modelling Demand can be represented as fixed energy, price dependent, or resource planning dependent. FIXED ENERGY LOAD Can be used to represent curtailable or shiftable load Can be used with multi-variable correlated sampling PRICE DEPENDENT LOAD Can be defined using piecewise linear price/quantity values Can represent purchasers & demand side participation at regional, zonal or nodal level RESOURCE PLANNING DEPENDENT LOAD Can be modelled as expansion anti-generator candidates (with all expansion facets of generators and net negative injection to the system) Can be used to model lumpy investment impact at the industrial level Let Energy Exemplar help you take flight and soar above the rest. energyexemplar.com

12 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar p. 12 System Security and Adequacy System operators and planners the world over RELY ON PLEXOS for ASSESSING SECURITY and ADEQUACY. PLEXOS HAS BEEN FASCINATING TO USE TO PRODUCE THE SOUTH AFRICAN INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN (IRP). THE STOCHASTIC OPTIMISATION ASPECT OF IT WAS HELPFUL TO ESTABLISH THE POSITION OF LEAST REGRET AND WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE NEXT IRP WILL BE MORE INFORMATIVE GIVEN THAT PLEXOS HAS GIVEN US NEW QUESTIONS WHICH NEED ANSWERS. Sipho Mdhluli Eskom

13 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar System Security & Adequacy p. 13 Security A convolution method is used taking into account the forced outages LOLP, LOLE, EDNS & EENS indicies are calculated in the LT Plan and PASA Multi-area LOLP index is calculated using State space decomposition and Monte Carlo simulation Adequacy Security constrained unit commitment (SCUC) algorithm is used Contingency shift factors are calculated N-x contingency analysis is supported Let Energy Exemplar help you take flight and soar above the rest. energyexemplar.com

14 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar p. 14 Ancillary Services and Energy Co-Optimisation Utilities and system operators must be on high alert for UNFORESEEN CONTINGENCIES so as to address IMBALANCES IN ELECTRICITY MARKETS. HAVING COMPLEX MODELS TO BE SOLVED, PLEXOS STILL COMPUTES THE RESULTS IN A FAIR PERIOD OF TIME. THE GRAPHICAL SOLUTION VIEWER ENABLES US TO QUICKLY CHECK OUR MODEL S CONSISTENCY. Hendrik Heese Borusan EnBW Enerji

15 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar Ancillary Services and Energy Co-Optimisation p. 15 PLEXOS models multiple reserve classes RAISE RAISE RAISE RAISE LOWER LOWER LOWER LOWER SPINNING REGULATION OPERATIONAL NON-SPINNING REPLACEMENT NON-SPINNING Ercot is one of many entities who rely on PLEXOS to model reserve provisions co-optimised with generation dispatch and unit commitment to a sub-hourly level with detailed treatment start-up, shut-down, ramping and other constraint interaction minute by minute. Energy offers Ancillary service offers Generator constraints Transmission constraints Fuel & emission limits PLEXOS SCUC & ED ALGORITHM Energy/Ancillary services price forecasts Energy schedule Ancillary services schedule Entities across different countries commonly report back changes in a GT utilisation vis-à-vis more efficient plant post detailed co-optimisation of reserves and energy in PLEXOS. Let Energy Exemplar help you take flight and soar above the rest. energyexemplar.com

16 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar p. 16 Optimally Times Maintenance Optimise maintenance performed at a company or portfolio. Optimise scarce resources (e.g. equipment or crew required) across multiple maintenance events and time horizons to minimise costs. Maintenance events can be linked to other events. Perform a run either deterministically or via stochastic optimisation. Friendly interface allows easy assumption changes in seconds. PLEXOS IS OUR TOOL OF CHOICE FOR NEM MARKET MODELLING. IT GIVES US THE FLEXIBILITY TO SET UP THE MODEL AS WE CHOOSE, AND ITS SCENARIO MANAGEMENT IS VERY SOPHISTICATED, ALLOWING CONSISTENT ASSUMPTIONS TO BE APPLIED TO SHORT, MEDIUM OR LONG-TERM OUTLOOKS. Ben Howard AGL

17 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar Optimally Times Maintenance p. 17 STEP ONE CHOOSE ASSET Transmission Lines Generators Gas / Water Pipelines STEP TWO YOUR SETTINGS SET PLANNED MAINTENANCE PASA OR Cost OR User Defined SET FORCED OUTAGE ASSUMPTIONS Convergent & Normal Monte Carlo OR Stochastic Optimisation SET TIME TO REPAIR Uniform Lognormal Exponential Weibull Smallest Extreme Value (SEV) Largest Extreme Value (LEV) Triangular LOOK AHEAD OPTIMALLY DISTRIBUTES OUTAGES NOW CCGT OUT TRANSMISSION LINE OUT FUTURE Let Energy Exemplar help you take flight and soar above the rest. energyexemplar.com

18 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar p. 18 PLEXOS Dispatch Optimisation LET PLEXOS DECIDE which turn to make next. THE SAVINGS GENERATED AFTER INVESTING IN PLEXOS ARE MANY HUNDREDS MORE THAN THE INITIAL OUTLAY. IT S A NO-BRAINER. Razib Dawood Electricity Commission of Malaysia

19 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar PLEXOS Dispatch Optimisation p. 19 Utilities report savings in the tens of millions of dollars from more efficient dispatch decisions that lower production costs given constraints such as emissions. Minimise Production Costs and Satisfy Constraints MINIMISE THIS COST WHILST OBSERVING THIS GAS 3 GAS 2 PHYSICAL CONSTRAINTS NUCLEAR WIND GAS 1 EMISSIONS CONSTRAINTS FUEL MIX CONSTRAINTS COAL TARGET POSITION TRANSMISSION CONSTRAINTS SUPPLY = DEMAND AT EACH INTERVAL PLEXOS algorithms offer choices for unit commitment decisions. Linear Programming Rounded Relaxation ALGORITHMS IN PLEXOS Mixed Integer Programming Dynamic Programming Mixed integer programming together with the ability to simulate down to the 1 minute level equates to a real life-like emulation of a system. Automate PLEXOS to work in the background in a real time environment, regularly feeding results to operators. Let Energy Exemplar help you take flight and soar above the rest. energyexemplar.com

20 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar p. 20 Renewable Energy Planning and Integration LET PLEXOS OPTIMALLY GUIDE YOU TO A LOW CARBON FUTURE. Life-like detail captured in sub-hourly simulations with correct solutions delivered through Mixed Integer Programming as back-up generation steps in to fill the gaps left behind from intermittency. PLEXOS IS A VALUED TOOL WHICH PROVIDES CEZ WITH MORE INSIGHT INTO EUROPEAN POWER AND CARBON MARKET DYNAMICS. THE ANALYSIS OF FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE FUTURE BALANCE OF POWER SYSTEMS IS BENEFICIAL FOR BOTH TRADING AND INVESTMENT DECISION PURPOSES. Zdenek Pekarek CEZ

21 Renewable Energy Planning and Integration PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar p cou ntr ie s rel y o n P LEXOS fo r renewa b le stu d ies. T h e relevance is univers a l: USA s PJM us e PLEXOS fo r t he C lean Powe r Pla n. CHILE s Co ordi na dor Elec trico Naci ona l relies on P LEXOS for lon g term nat iona l ren ewable p la ns. 90 % of EURO PE s u til i ti e s m ar ket re l i e s o n P L EXOS fo r car b o n trading m anag e m e nt. P L EXOS is he av il y u se d by the m ain au tho ritie s fo r re newab l e inte g ratio n stu di e s in AUS TR ALIA s A E M O p u b l is h e d nati o nal stu d ie s in P L EXOS fo r m at fo r d ow nl oa d. INDIA as 1 7 0GW is targ ete d by Conta ct Energy Exempla r fo r acce ss to p ape r s and p u b l i catio ns.

22 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar Renewable Energy Planning and Integration p. 22 PLEXOS has kept pace with disruptive and innovative advancements in energy storage, smart grids and electric vehicles. Key PLEXOS Capabilities Sub-hourly modelling (down to 1 minute level) to represent intermittent generation Multi-commodity optimisation by integrating multiple models Energy & ancillary services co-optimisation with renewables Interleaved simulation to optimise unit commitment and economic dispatch of Day-Ahead and Real-Time markets Stochastic simulation to model uncertainties using Monte Carlo simulation or Stochastic optimisation Representation of detailed real life technical constraints Various autoregressive sampling models for wind speed, solar radiation and natural inflows Let Energy Exemplar help you take flight and soar above the rest. energyexemplar.com

23 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar p. 23 Storage PLEXOS represents all types of Electric Vehicles ENERGY STORAGE TECHNOLOGY for short and long term modelling. It allows the COMPUTATION OF SAVINGS from PRODUCTION COSTS, CONGESTION CHARGES and REDUCTION IN LOSSES. Flowing Electrolyte Batteries THE BATTERY CLASS CAES Secondary Batteries Thermal Storage Systems Flywheel Batteries

24 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar Storage p. 24 CAPACITY (MWh) MAX SoC (%) MAX INPUT POWER (MW) CHARGE EFFICIENCY (%) INITIAL SoC (%) BUILD COST ($/MWh) ECONOMIC LIFE (years) TECHNICAL LIFE (cycles) DISCHARGE EFFICIENCY (%) MAX OUTPUT POWER (MW) CALENDAR LIFE (years) WACC (% p.a.) FO&M CHARGE ($/kw/year) Etc. MIN SoC (%) SELF DISCHARGE (%/h) Long-term Applications Can carry out cost-benefit analysis of transmission and distribution network deferrals Can assess potential benefits from reduced transmission congestion Can model grid stabilisation and transmission loss reduction Short-term Applications Can solve chronological unit commitment using a sub-hourly resolution Can optimise bidding strategies for energy time shifting Can identify and evaluate revenue stream opportunities in the energy and reserve market Can model renewable energy smoothing, peak-shaving and load-levelling An array of micro grid studies published with PLEXOS, thanks to the first to market innovative PLEXOS battery and flow control classes. Let Energy Exemplar help you take flight and soar above the rest. energyexemplar.com

25 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar p. 25 Multi-Stage Hydro and Storage Optimisation Demands on generation are VOLATILE, inflows are UNPREDICTABLE and constraints are COMPLEX. Thankfully the PLEXOS STOCHASTIC SOLUTION IS NOT Because it s just as important to KNOW WHAT TO SAVE FOR LATER.

26 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar Multi-Stage Hydro and Storage Optimisation p. 26 Fast and transparent simulations for long term investment and short term optimisation are all the more useful when hydro is co-optimised with other resources. SOLAR WIND RAIN PUMP STORAGE CASCADES CANALS SPILLWAYS RUN OF RIVER WATER POLICIES JUNCTIONS IRRIGATION ENVIRONMENTAL RELEASES Integrate complex hydro systems with generation efficiency curves, head storage dependency, waterway flow delays, evaporation and other factors. Perform deterministic or multi-stage stochastic solutions over any horizon. Seamlessly integrate with the hydro-thermal coordination problem via hydro targets or future cost function decomposition. Let Energy Exemplar help you take flight and soar above the rest. energyexemplar.com

27 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar p. 27 Market Analysis for Trading and Hedging PLEXOS is the TOOL OF CHOICE FOR HEDGE FUNDS and the world s leading utilities for making the best trading decisions. PLEXOS is UNIVERSALLY RELEVANT to any type of system, whether a market is present or not. Apply physical and financial contracts and load obligations to dynamically modify generation in PLEXOS for OPTIMAL DISPATCH DECISIONS.

28 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar Market Analysis for trading and hedging p. 28 Maximise profits with the price based unit commitments algorithms. SET MINIMUM PROFIT TARGETS PERFORM SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR GENERATION ASSET VALUATION AND RISK ANALYSIS BETTER UNDERSTAND THE SENSITIVITY OF PRICE FORECASTS AND RESULTING EFFECTS ON DISPATCH DECISIONS AND CASH FLOW VARIATION Accurate price forecasting is made easy with PLEXOS in the face of uncertain variables such as demand, weather, plant failures and fuel shortages. Perform short and long term forecasts for any system, at the zonal, regional or nodal level. Sample back test Actual vs PLEXOS price in Victoria Australia July Let Energy Exemplar help you take flight and soar above the rest. energyexemplar.com

29 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar p. 29 Risk Analysis Whether you are designing an OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO or STRESS TESTING an existing one, PLEXOS offers SEAMLESS MULTI-SCENARIO PLANNING aimed at delivering an array of outputs for a BETTER INFORMED DECISION. VALUE AT RISK (VAR) and EARNING AT RISK (EAR) models are ENHANCED with the integration of PLEXOS outputs.

30 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar Risk Analysis p. 30 Physical Portfolio Financial Portfolio Availability Emission Costs PPAs Reserve Requirement Start Profiles Swaption Decision Variables Applied Swing Swap Condition Dispatch Settings Variable Costs Cap Fixed Costs & Constraints Volume Flex Floor Bids Interruptibility ToP Fuel Contracts Optimal Dispatch Strategy Optimal Contract Portfolio PLEXOS can model the uncertainty of physical and financial portfolios deterministically or stochastically. PLEXOS can integrate the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) in the optimisation problem to generate an efficient frontier of solutions. This can be used to: IDENTIFY HIGH RISK-LOW COST OR LOW RISK/HIGH COST SOLUTIONS IDENTIFY KEY INVESTMENTS DECISIONS THAT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON RISK Let Energy Exemplar help you take flight and soar above the rest. energyexemplar.com

31 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar p. 31 Electricity and Gas Co-Optimisation Plug in PLEXOS for Gas and model the FULL CO-OPTIMISED CHAIN from the GAS PRODUCTION BASIN to the ELECTRON ARRIVING AT ITS DESTINATION.

32 PLEXOS by Energy Exemplar Electricity and Gas Co-Optimisation p. 32 Modelling commodities in their isolated systems is a thing of the past. Many of the WORLD S LEADING UTILITIES AND ISOs have discovered that CO-OPTIMISED MODELS deliver BETTER SAVINGS and HIGHER RETURNS to stakeholders. Contact the team at Energy Exemplar to receive case studies showing: Valuation of gas and electric storage options with dual fuel optimisation. Evolution of gas and electric contingencies and the reliability impacts on the wider system. Least cost opex and capex co-optimisation of gas and electric expansion and retirements. Emergence of gas constraints with generation retirements. Full end to end LNG modelling co-optimised with electricity. Let Energy Exemplar help you take flight and soar above the rest. energyexemplar.com