Climate Change Impacts: Caribbean
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- Merry Higgins
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1 a work in progress Climate Change Impacts: watersheds of Mesoamerica and the Caribbean Water quality and availability Flood potential
2 Context CATHALAC & SERVIR Climate Change and Biodiversity Increasing frequency and intensity in disasters Sediment and erosion modeling Land cover change Deforestation: soil loss, lack of water retention Urban and agricultural expansion: water needs up
3 CATHALAC Mission Promote integrated watershed management in Latin America and the Caribbean, by means of applied investigation, education, and technology transfer Vision A prosperous and sustainable envi- ronment in the Latin America and Caribbean region
4 CATHALAC Integrated Watershed Resource Management Climate Change Environmental Modeling and Analysis Risk Management Our International Education Programs are derived from these programs
5 the Regional Visualization & Monitoring System (SERVIR) Terra Aqua Mesoamerica s Earth Observation & Forecasting Platform Earth Observing System Data and Operations System Fire Red Tides Test-bed at NASA MSFC LandSat MODIS SRTM AMSR-E IKONOS ASTER Environmental Monitoring & Decision Support Products Operational Node at CATHALAC Panama Web Interface Users Mesoamerican & Caribbean Government agencies NGOs, Researchers Educators, etc. Thematic Areas Agriculture Biodiversity Climate Ecosystems Energy Disasters Health Water Weather Land Cover / Use Change Impacts Emergency Response Policy Changes Corridor Preservation Species Preservation Sustained Development Improved livelihoods SERVIR is a completely 5 open- access system with products in range of formats
6 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity in Central America, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic, CATHALAC Data derived from: NatureServe InfoNatura Species Distribution Grids. WorldClim Climate Grids: Current and Future Conditions. IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas, 2007.
7 Trend analysis Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of tropical systems
8 Case study: Panama Canal Watershed (RUSLE)
9 Local water quality Sedimentation to Runoff ratio Identification of Identification of critical areas
10 Water availability Current demand Future demand Land use change scenarios: Control Urban & agricultural growth scenario Present changing demands in the context of g g changing precipitation trends
11 Input data Elevation Precipitation Land cover Soil
12 Data - terrain GTOPO DEM, 1km Synthetic rivers and watersheds: D-8 method (Fairfield and Laymarie 1991) Why synthetic? Regional data do not always show transboundary watersheds very well and they re the important ones! Support hydrological modeling Validate with national datasets
13 Data - climate Worldclim baseline (1950s-1990s): 1km interpolated precipitation (Hijmans et al. 2005) 18 Worldclim climate change scenarios HadCM3 CGCM3T47 CSIRO Mk3 x A2 B2 x 2020s 2050s 2080s SERVIR RCM (Hernandez et al. 2006) Jan, Feb, June, July, August, September Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Coupled Global Climate Model Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization coupled model, Australia
14 Data - land cover and soil GlobCover, reclassified to C-CAP Cover factor Soils, FAO Erodibility (k factor) USGS hydrological group
15 Tools Spatial Analyst Hydrology tools Surface tools Others (e.g., map algebra, raster calculator) N-SPECT: Nonpoint Source Pollution and Erosion Comparison Tool (NOAA)
16 Preliminary results, per watershed 12 baseline months + annual accumulation (12 projected months + annual accum.) x 18 scenarios = 234 Anomaly per watershed, for the above Zonal Statistics Map Algebra
17 Monthly accumulated precipitation per watershed: baseline Light Heavy
18 Monthly accumulated precipitation per watershed: HadCM3 A2 2020s Light Heavy
19 Monthly anomaly per watershed: [HadCM3 A2 2020s] baseline Drier Wetter
20 Monthly anomaly per watershed: scenario baseline For each month, consider: HadCM3, CGCM3T47, CSIRO Mk3 A2 & B2 scenarios 2020s, 2050s, 2080s 18 x 12 = 216 monthly precipitation anomaly per watershed grids
21 Relative Precipitation Change
22 Monthly anomalies: a snapshot of capital cities in the region
23 Regional water quality Utilize N-SPECT to derive runoff and sedimentation estimates under baseline conditions and climate change scenarios Compare the ratio of sedimentation to runoff to discover rivers that are projected to experience more sedimentation than normal, given the change in precipitation patterns
24 Regional water availability TEST: Add into the mix land cover change scenarios, based on population growth and agricultural expansion trends CONTROL: Leaving land cover the same We are already familiar with land cover change cases El Valle de Anton, Panamá
25 Land use change and erosion Bosque intervenido Rastrojo Uso agro. de subsist Uso agropecuario La Indiana Dormida, Intensification of Agriculture
26 Land use change and erosion Cerro El Gaital Bosque maduro Bosque intervenido Rastrojo Uso agro. de subsist. Uso agropecuario Soil and Forest Conservation
27 Land Cover Scenarios 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Water Bare Wetland Scrub Forest Grassland Ag Urban 10% 0% CURRENT S1_MRKT S2_POLICY S4_SUST Borrowed from Lauretta Burke World Resources Institute August, 2006
28 Expected results: regional water availability Observed trend of drier rainy season in many parts of the region Further stresses on water resources Areas of interest: t Transboundary watersheds Where the rain falls doesn t exactly show us the impacted areas Downstream analyses sometimes cross borders
29 Flood potential Runoff before and after Hurricane or storm scenarios (MUSLE) Related to regional flood risk map Low elevation coastal zones National flood risk maps Highlight currently flood prone areas that are expected to undergo change Highlight g new prone areas that weren t before
30 Flood risk Utilizing the event-based feature in N-SPECT, a normal week can be compared to a very rainy week Application of similar downstream analyses
31 Contact For more complete results, please visit or contact
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