Won-Tae Kwon National Institute of Meteorological Research Korea Meteorological Administration
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1 Workshop to Explore the New SMA/SSP Approach, Changwon, Korea Won-Tae Kwon National Institute of Meteorological Research Korea Meteorological Administration
2 Outlines RCPs & CMIP5 Preliminary Results Projected Changes - Global temperature and rainfall - Sea ice extent & Ocean acidification - Climate extreme indices - East Asia: Hydrology, run off, soil moisture Regional Downscaling Experiment: CORDEX
3 CO 2 Emissions and Radiative Forcing for Historic & RCP scenarios CO 2 Emissions Anthropogenic & natural Radiative Forcing
4 Land use Change (Cropland & Pasture)
5 Evolution of Climate Models Target: Climate System (IPCC, 2007) The complexity of climate models has increased over the last few decades.
6 GHG emission Scenario Future Climate Projection Concentrations Radiative Forcing Land Cover + GHGs, Aerosols Socio-Economic Scenario Global Climate Model Regional Climate Model Local-scale Downscaling Impact/Vulnerability Assessment Adaptation Measures
7 CMIP5 Experiments: Near-Term and Long-term Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Near-term Experiment Long-term Experiment WCRP: World Climate Research Programme
8 CMIP5 Modeling Groups Primary Group Country Primary Contact Primary Group Country Primary Contact NERSC Norway M. Bentsen, H. Drange CSIRO & QCCCE Australia L. Rotsyayn, J. Syktus, S. Jeffrey Hadley Centre U.K. M. Collins, C. Jones NCAR U.S. J. Hurrell, G. Meehl GFDL U.S. T. Delworth, I. Held, L. Horowits, R. Stouffer IPSL & LMD France J.L. Dufresne, S. Bony NIES & U. Tokyo Japan S. Emori, M. Kawamiya, M. Kimoto MRI MRI M. Kimoto NIMR(with Hadley Centre) Korea W.T. Kwon LASG IAP China T.Zhou, B. Wang CCCMa Canada G. Flato NASA GISS U.S. G. Schmidt MPI Germany M. Giorgetta BCC China Q. Li, Y. You, Z. Wang, T. Wu, Y, Xu INGV Italy S. Gualdi INM Russia E. Volodin EC-Earth Eourope W. Hazeleger CERFACS&CNRM France S. Planton/D Salas Melia CSIRO & BMRC Australia T. Hirst, K. Puri U. Reading U.K. L. Shaffrey NASA GSFC U.S. M. Suarez
9 PRELIMINARY RESULTS
10 Projected Changes in Global Surface Temperature Global temperature anomaly (HadGEM2-AO) reference period:
11 Projected Changes in Surface Temp ( ) ANN ( C) RCP RCP
12 Projected Changes in Regional Surface Temperature
13 Temperature anomalies [ ] CO 2 Concentration & Temperature Change Historical run RCP4.5 RCP CO 2 [ppm]
14 Projected Changes in Global Precipitation Global precipitation anomaly (HadGEM2-AO) reference period:
15 Projected Changes in Precipitation ( ) ANN (%) RCP RCP
16 Projected Changes in Regional Precipitation
17 Trends in Temperature Indices Cold day Hot day Historic ( ) future ( )
18 Changes in Precipitation Indices Prcp days Prcp Total Historic ( ) RCP8.5 ( )
19 Changes in Sea Ice Extent Observed and simulated anomalies in sea ice extent for the Northern Hemisphere
20 Precipitation Change (%) 2020s 2050s 2080s River Outflow and Change (%) over Yangtze River Mouth 2020s: 2.2% 2050s: 7.2% 2080s: 23.8%
21
22 RCP8.5 RCP s 2050s 2080s Depth : 0~5 m Ocean Temperature Change ( ) Depth : 0~5 m 2020s 2050s 2080s
23 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Why downscaling? IAV communities demand for high resolution climate information. GCMs are not enough to resolve local features and their extremes. OBS GCM RCM
24 Summary Preliminary results from the CMIP5 experiments based on new RCP scenarios Information on global land cover change applied Using HadGEM2-AO (collaboration with UKMO Hadley Centre) In general, the results is similar to the CMIP3 experiment New information from model improvements, such as river discharge, etc. CORDEX regional experiment underway Data size ~ 2 PB for global & regional data (Korea only) Need further analysis using multi-model ensemble from CMIP5 to assess the range of global and regional climate projection Need further model improvement, such as cloud, carbon cycle, dynamic vegetation, dynamic ice melting, resolution, etc., to understand the response of the global climate system under future scenario higher computing power, data storage Better regional climate projection for better impact and vulnerability assessment on regional/national scales
25
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