Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Assessment

Transcription

1 Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Assessment Projected warming (ºF) by NASA center, 2080s minus 1980s averaged across 16 GCMs under the A1B emissions scenario Cynthia Rosenzweig NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Environment, Energy Security, and Sustainability Symposium New Orleans, LA, May 10, 2011

2 Responding to Climate Change Mitigation involves actions that decrease the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs). This can be done by reducing GHG emissions and by enhancing the storage of carbon on the earth. Adaptation involves actions that reduce the effects of climate change or enhance the benefits. Mitigation & adaptation can be interactive

3 Approach to Adaptation Climate Risk Management Climate risk management is designed for decisionmaking under uncertainty. Advantages of climate risk management include: - Use of formalized methods to manage uncertainty - Stakeholder involvement - Use of methods for evaluating policy options without being policy-prescriptive - Integration of different disciplinary approaches - Mainstreaming of climate-change concerns into the broader decision-making context Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007

4 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Assessment: NYC Example Photo: S. Cornwell :Climate Change Adaptation in NYC: Building a Risk Management Response

5 Sustainability Plan for NYC The plan features 10 goals Create more homes for almost a million more New Yorkers, while making housing affordable and sustainable housing Ensure that all New York live within a 10-minute walk of a park Clean up all contaminated land Open 90% of waterways for recreation by reducing water pollution and natural area preservation Develop critical back-up systems for water network Improve travel times by adding transit capacity Reach a full state of good repair on roads, subways and rails Provide cleaner and more reliable power Achieve the cleanest air of any big city in America Reduce global warming emissions by more than 30% PlaNYC is New York City s plan for a sustainable future (April, 2007) All linked to climate change mitigation and adaptation Available online at:

6 Establish Guiding Principles Flexible Adaptation Pathways Key elements to achieve Flexible Adaptation Pathways are a guiding framework, stakeholder engagement, expert knowledge providers, recurring assessment process, Action Plans by decision-makers, and vertically/horizontally integrated projects with ongoing evaluation Source: NPCC, 2010

7 New York City Climate Change Adaptation Process Critical Infrastructure Mayor or City Official High-Level Buy-In Stakeholders - City Agencies - Regional Authorities - Private Corporations Stakeholder Task Force C W W Integration across Sector-specific Working Groups - Energy (E) - Transportation (T) - Policy (P) -Water & Waste (WW) - Communications (C) P E T City-wide Sustainability Office Expert Panel Climate Risk Information Adaptation Assessment Guidelines Climate Protection Levels Coordinating Role Expert Knowledge Providers - University scholars and private sector experts - Social, biological, and physical scientists - Legal and insurance experts - Risk management professionals Source: NPCC, 2010

8 Design Adaptation Process 1. Identify current and future climate hazards 2. Conduct inventory of infrastructure and assets and begin to identify vulnerabilities 3. Characterize risk 4. Develop initial list of strategies 5. Prioritize strategies 6. Prepare and implement Adaptation Plans 7. Monitor and reassess New York City Panel on Climate Change

9 Developing Climate Risk Information Process used to develop climate risk factors for New York City Warmer temperatures More frequent and intense heat waves Sea level rise and coastal flooding Source: NPCC, 2010

10 Identify Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Sea Level Rise Equipment damage from salt-water corrosion Flooded utility corridors impeding service Source: Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research Source: City of New York PlaNYC Source: City of New York PlaNYC New York City Panel on Climate Change

11 Characterize Risk Red Orange Yellow risks for which adaptation strategies should be developed risks for which adaptation strategies may need to be developed or for which further information is needed risks for which impacts should be monitored but which may not need actions at this time Source: Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research To determine risk of climate change on infrastructure 1. Probability of a climate change hazard 2. Likelihood of that hazard causing an impact 3. Magnitude of consequence, should that impact occur New York City Panel on Climate Change

12 Develop and Prioritize Adaptation Strategies Potential Strategy Prioritization Categories - Cost - Feasibility - Timing of Implementation - Efficacy - Resiliency Rating - Co-benefits New York City Panel on Climate Change

13 Framing Adaptation Reduce the level of physical, social, or economic impact of climate change and variability Take advantage of new opportunities emerging from climate change Type Management/operations Infrastructure physical components of each sector Policy Administrative Group Private vs. public organizations Local/municipal, county, state, national Level of Effort Incremental action Large-scale shifts Timing Short term <5 yrs; medium term 5-15 yrs; long term >15 years Abrupt Changes - tipping points/policy triggers Scale Wide-spread, clustered, isolated/unique

14 Adaptation Decisions Actions - Enhance existing programs - Move pumps at the Rockaway Wastewater Treatment Plant to 14 feet above sea level Planning NYC DEP Climate Change Integrated Modeling Project (CCIMP) analyzing climate impacts on NYC water supply NYC DEP RFP to study impacts of rising sea level on Wastewater Pollution Control Plants (WPCP), tide gates, & other structures Standards and Regulations - NPCC Recommendation to change 1/100 year floodplain standards Urban Design - MOMA Ashokan Reservoir WPCP in Bronx, New York

15 Monitor and Reassess Proposed structure and process of monitoring climate change, impact, and adaptation parameters, and for translating them into indicators for New York City New York City Panel on Climate Change

16 Regional Climate Change Adaptation Assessment: NASA Example :Climate Change Adaptation in NYC: Building a Risk Management Response

17 CASI Mission Statement Advance and apply NASA s scientific expertise and products to develop climate adaptation strategies that support NASA s overall mission by minimizing risks to each center s operations, physical assets, and personnel September 2009 fires at JPL Winter cold event at KSC

18 CASI Products and Tasks (1) Downscale center-specific climate hazard information Conduct research customized to each centers needs Partner with infrastructure, environmental management and master planning point-of-contacts at respective centers, in order to disseminate climate science knowledge tailored to centerspecific adaptation solutions Stennis Air Temperature Central Range Precipitation Central Range Sea level rise Central Range Rapid ice-melt scenario Baseline s 2050s 2080s 55 F to 3.0 F to 5.0 F to 7.5 F 46.5 in + 0 to 5 % + 0 to 10 % + 5 to 10% NA + 2 to 5 in + 7 to 12 in + 12 to 23 in NA ~ 5 to 10 in ~ 19 to 29 in ~ 41 to 55 in NASA GISS

19 Downscaled Projections A1B 2080s 16 GCM Annual Temperature Change ( F) Temperature increase ( F) for the 2080s relative to the 1980s baseline, for the A1B emissions scenario averaged across 16 statistically-downscaled GCMs Bias-corrected and spatially downscaled CMIP3 data: org/downscaled_cmip3_p rojections/, Maurer et al (2007). A1B 2080s 16 GCM Annual Rainfall Percentage Change

20 CASI Products and Tasks (2) Provide support for adaptation workshops, telephone and video conferences KSC, May 17-20, 2010 ARC, February 1-4, 2011 Host collaborative information system Inventory center s existing climate and impact data and research activities Develop or support target research initiatives

21 Key Takeaways Risk management approach brings climate into ongoing framework for management and long-term decisionmaking. Climate adaptation is a process. High-level leadership is crucial. Coordination across all parts of organization. Monitor and reassess to reduce uncertainties and advance understanding