Middle East & North Africa Smart Grid: Market Forecast ( )

Transcription

1 northeast group, llc Middle East & North Africa Smart Grid: Market Forecast ( ) June group.com

2 Middle East & North Africa Smart Grid: Market Forecast ( ) The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is one of the leading geographies for smart grid development in emerging markets. Within the MENA region, smart grid shows particularly strong potential in the Gulf states, where high incomes, high electricity consumption, and small populations will drive smart meter deployments in the medium- term. The technologies used and lessons learned in these deployments will then be diffused throughout the region. Smart grid in MENA will largely be a state- driven process, owing to government control of nearly all electricity activity throughout the region. This creates both opportunities and challenges for smart grid development. Gulf governments have ample capital on hand and exhibit a strong desire to modernize their countries and their economies. Smart grid offers these countries an excellent opportunity to modernize their infrastructure, lay the foundation for additional energy- saving applications, and ultimately diversify their economies away from dependence on oil and gas. But governments and investors in the Gulf are also wary of the recent upheavals seen throughout the MENA region in the past two years. Support for current governments is built in part on populist policies such as free or nearly free electricity. Some of the benefits of smart meters can only be realized with market or near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market prices for electricity, which governments may be unwilling to implement. $#" $!" Ultimately, smart grid may prove to be a solution that can bridge the competing interests of Gulf countries. Governments can appeal to international investors by embracing modern technology and infrastructure, while also appealing to their own people through generous spending. This is because smart grid can be a tool to raise money for Gulf governments #"!"./012"97:";505<="678" >/4<?5@"A/<0B51=0"C</4D"

3 by reducing domestic demand for oil and gas - both through decreased overall demand and through the incorporation of renewable resources - freeing up more oil and natural gas for export. Additionally, instituting some level of dynamic pricing mechanisms to the domestic electricity market will raise additional funds, while reducing technical and non- technical losses will ease the cost to the government of electricity subsidies. With volatile oil and gas markets and GDP growth rates expected to temper following the enormous growth of the past several years, Gulf countries will need to look in new directions to ensure the wealth that drives current domestic spending programs. To a certain extent, the same holds true outside of the Gulf. The biggest differences with MENA countries outside of the Gulf are lower electricity consumption profiles and challenging political environments. But even though energy consumption is not nearly as high in other MENA countries, it is growing quickly and will continue to do so as the region s large youth population reaches working age. Governments throughout the region will therefore face increasing challenges in supplying affordable and reliable power to their populations. In the short- term, the political changes seen throughout MENA may stall investment, but in the long- term, smart grid will prove instrumental in meeting the goals of modernization and reliable public infrastructure. Key questions answered in this report: How large will the smart meter market including 5 segments - in MENA become over the next decade? Which countries are developing smart grid regulatory frameworks and what do they look like? Which international vendors are already active in MENA? How will rules on local participation affect international investment in the smart grid market? Which communications technologies will be favored by utilities in the MENA region? How will the development of renewable sources of energy affect smart grid in the MENA region? What pilot projects are in place and what hurdles have they faced?!"#$%"&'()*+,'$)-.()*+/!,0+!"#$%&'$()&)*+*,-."*/%&(/&0123& E4##+1424A)>41+ 5)%4+1424A)>41+,12.*341+54$4%"*6+7*8%.#$%'3$'%4+/,570+ 9)'%34:+;)%$<4.#$+=%)'>+?+BCCDCCC+ -4$4%#+ How will recent political events in the region shape smart grid development? E4##+1424A)>41+ 5)%4+1424A)>41+!"#$%&'&()%*"&"+%*(+,"&%-./"%?+@+-"AA")*+ -4$4%#+

4 Table of Contents i. Executive Summary 1 ii. Methodology 8 1. Introduction What is smart grid? Smart grid s role in regional interconnection How has smart grid been used elsewhere in the world? MENA smart grid snapshot The region in comparison Regional drivers Regional challenges Most recent developments Regional market forecast United Arab emirates Electricity industry structure Smart metering regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity Saudi Arabia Electricity industry structure Smart metering regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity Qatar Electricity industry structure Smart metering regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity Oman Electricity industry structure Smart metering regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity Kuwait Electricity industry structure Smart metering regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity 81

5 9. Bahrain Electricity industry structure Smart metering regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity Beyond the Gulf Market drivers and barriers Jordan Egypt The rest of the region Vendor activity Domestic vendors International vendors active in smart grid in MENA International vendors poised to expand in MENA Conclusion Appendix List of companies mentioned in this report List of acronyms 109 List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables MENA smart grid: key takeaways 2 Smart grid development in Gulf countries 6 AMI forecast by country 7 AMI forecast data by country 7 Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain 10 Figure 1.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in MENA 11 Table 1.1: Benefits of AMI in the Gulf 14 Table 1.2: Demand response options 16 Figure 1.3: GCC Interconnection 17 Figure 1.4: Proposed European super grid 19 Figure 1.5: Smart grid activity in emerging markets 22

6 Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential 26 Figure 2.2: Per- capita electricity consumption 27 Figure 2.3: Per- capita CO 2 emissions 27 Figure 2.4: GDP growth in MENA and the Gulf 28 Table 2.1: Smart grid market drivers and barriers in the Gulf 29 Figure 2.5: Per- capita consumption in MENA 30 Figure 2.6: Renewable sources of energy in MENA 31 Figure 2.7: Distribution losses in MENA 32 Figure 2.8: Electricity prices in MENA 34 Figure 3.1: Timeline of smart grid developments in MENA 37 Figure 3.2: AMI forecast by country 38 Table 3.1: AMI forecast data by country 38 Figure 3.3: MENA smart meter penetration rate 39 Figure 3.4: Gulf smart meter penetration rate 39 Figure 3.5: AMI cost breakdown 39 Figure 3.6: AMI forecast by segment 40 Table 3.2: AMI forecast data by segment 40 Figure 4.1: UAE AMI penetration rate 41 Table 4.1: Smart grid indicators in the UAE 42 Figure 4.2: Voluntary dynamic pricing in Abu Dhabi 44 Box 4.1 Political risk in the UAE 45 Figure 4.3: UAE AMI forecast 47 Table 4.2: UAE AMI forecast data 47 Box 4.2: Masdar City a carbon neutral smart city 49 Figure 5.1: Saudi Arabia AMI penetration rate 52 Table 5.1: Smart grid indicators in Saudi Arabia 53 Box 5.1: Political risk in Saudi Arabia 55 Figure 5.2: Saudi Arabia AMI forecast 59 Table 5.2: Saudi Arabia AMI forecast data 59 Figure 6.1: Qatar AMI penetration rate 62 Table 6.1: Smart grid indicators in Qatar 63 Box 6.1: Political risk in Qatar 65

7 Figure 6.2: Qatar AMI forecast 67 Table 6.2: Qatar AMI forecast data 67 Box 6.2: The Pearl Qatar project 68 Figure 7.1: Oman AMI penetration rate 70 Table 7.1: Smart grid indicators in Oman 71 Box 7.1: Political risk in Oman 72 Figure 7.2: Oman AMI forecast 74 Table 7.2: Oman AMI forecast data 74 Figure 8.1: Kuwait AMI penetration rate 77 Table 8.1: Smart grid indicators in Kuwait 78 Box 8.1: Political risk in Kuwait 79 Figure 8.2: Kuwait AMI forecast 81 Table 8.2: Kuwait AMI forecast data 81 Figure 9.1: Bahrain AMI penetration rate 83 Table 9.1: Smart grid indicators in Bahrain 84 Box 9.1: Political risk in Bahrain 85 Figure 9.2: Peak demand in Bahrain 86 Figure 9.3: Bahrain AMI forecast 87 Table 9.2: Bahrain AMI forecast data 87 Figure 10.1: Distribution losses in MENA 90 Figure 10.2: Jordan AMI penetration rate 92 Figure 10.3: Jordan AMI forecast 93 Table 10.1: Jordan AMI forecast data 93 Figure 10.4: Egypt AMI penetration rate 94 Figure 10.5: Egypt AMI forecast 95 Table 10.2: Egypt AMI forecast data 95 Table 11.1: Vendors based in the Gulf 99 Figure 11.1: International AMI vendors in MENA 103 Table 12.1: The next steps and necessary actions 107

8 Companies covered in this report ABB (Switzerland) Advanced Electronics Company (Saudi Arabia) ADWEA (UAE) Al Mostajed (UAE) Al Wataniya (Kuwait) Alstom (France) BPL Global (US) Consolidated Gulf Company (Qatar) Desertec (US) DEWA (UAE) Electricity Distribution Company (Jordan) Electricity Holding Company (Oman) Electricity and Water Authority (Bahrain) Elster (Germany) FEWA (UAE) GE (US) Global Energy Technologies (UAE) Gulf Investment Corporation (UAE) Irbid District Electricity Company (Jordan) Itron (US) Jordanian Electric Power Company (Jordan) Kahramaa (Qatar) Landis+Gyr (Switzerland) Larsen & Toubro s (India) Masdar (UAE) Mubadala (UAE) National Trading Company (Oman) Oracle (US)QEWC (Qatar) Petra Solar (US) Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia) Saudi Electricity Company (Saudi Arabia) SEWA (UAE) Siemens (Germany) Sonelgaz (Algeria) Suez- Tractebel (Belgium) SWCC (Saudi Arabia) Technology Partners (UAE) Tropos Networks (US)

9 Order Form MENA Smart Grid: Market Forecast ( ) Pricing Single user $2,995 Enterprise license $4,295 Clients purchasing a single user license are limited to one user for this report. The enterprise license allows all employees within a single organization to view the report. Any forwarding or sharing of the report to others who have not paid for it is strictly forbidden. orders: Fill out and scan the sheet below. Please orders to ben.gardner@northeast-group.com Telephone: We can be reached at Please have all of the information below ready to expedite your order. Customer information SINGLE USER ENTERPRISE LICENSE NAME POSITION COMPANY ADDRESS CITY STATE POSTAL CODE COUNTRY TELEPHONE Credit card information Card type: VISA MASTERCARD AMERICAN EXPRESS DISCOVER CARD NUMBER EXPIRATION DATE CV CODE CARDHOLDER S NAME SIGNATURE DATE BILLING ADDRESS CITY STATE POSTAL CODE COUNTRY By purchasing this report I agree to abide by the following terms and conditions: 1. Single- user license - use of this report is restricted to one individual. 2. Enterprise license use of this report is restricted to individuals within a single enterprise or organization. I agree not to forward or share this report to others who have not paid for its use.