Energy. on this world and elsewhere. Instructor: Gordon D. Cates Office: Physics 106a, Phone: (434)

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edu, click on classes and find Physics 1110.

1 Energy on this world and elsewhere Instructor: Gordon D. Cates Office: Physics 106a, Phone: (434) Course web site available at click on classes and find Physics or at Lecture #11 September 26, 2017

2 Announcements Read Chapter 4 of the class notes. Read Chapters 6-9 of Smoke and Mirrors (we will read earlier chapters too, if you just want to start at the beginning).

3 Quiz 18-19: : : : : : 2 <10.5 : 1 Average = 15.5

4 Oil

5 The tar sands or oil sands in Canada

6 The Canadian tar sands cover a vast region

7 History of Oil from Canadian tar sands

8 What started the Canadian tar sand boom? By Selected Non-OPEC Country, 1973¹ The landed price of a barrel of oil Dollars² per Barrel Canada United Kingdom Mexico Note: OPEC=Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Source: Table From the previous USA Today article

9 Actual and projected oil production in Canada from CAPP publication from around 2007 Even at 5 million barrels per day, this would represent only 25% of our (U.S.) current consumption. But if our consumption were much less...

10 More recent plot of Canadian oil production U.S. production is about 15 million bbl/day including biofuels and processing gains. Our consumption is around 19.5 million bbl/day. Thus, U.S. + Canadian production is almost equal to U.S. demand.

11 More recent plot of Canadian oil production From the 2017 Crude Oil Forecast, Marketing and Transportation, published by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP)

12 Surface mining vs. In-situ Only 20% of the oil is available through surface mining. Surface mining currently accounts for about 46% of production. Extraction will be difficult and energy intensive. From the previous USA Today article

13 Open-pit mining of Canadian tar sands At present, a little under half of the nonconventional crude production in Canada is from open pit mines.

14 Open-pit mining of Canadian tar sands At present, about 46% of the nonconventional crude production in Canada is from open pit mines (down from 62% when I first made this slide).

Next material goes into cyclofeeders where it is mixed with hot water to form a

15 Sands are shoveled into Caterpillar 797 dump trucks that stand 22 feet high and carry 400 ton loads. Material is loaded into crushers. Next material goes into cyclofeeders where it is mixed with hot water to form a slurry. From there it goes into giant centrifuges. Processing produces vast quantities of waste. Processing of tar sands

16 Before and after in Athabaska

Before and after in Alabaska The National Resource Defense Council (NRDC) estimates that eventually, a wilderness the size of Florida will be devestated.

17 Before and after in Alabaska The National Resource Defense Council (NRDC) estimates that eventually, a wilderness the size of Florida will be devestated.. The toxic waste ponds are already so vast that if drained into Lake Erie, the level would rise by ten inches.. Eventually the toxic waste ponds could raise the level of Lake Erie by three feet. I am not sure that I believe all of this. None-theless, I suspect that the news is not good.

18 The In-situ recovery technique of steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) Steam is injected into the upper horizontal well. Heated heavy oil becomes less viscous and flows into lower horizontal well. Bitumen is pumped to surface. The process is very energy intensive.

19 The In-situ technique represents an increasingly large fraction of total production

20 What will limit the growth of crude production from nonconventional oil? Resources Capital Process energy Greenhouse gases Water Local environmental impact

21 Interesting and sobering assessment of unconventional petroleum resources Quote from CERA Ignores Ten Warning Signposts of Peak Oil, from the web site of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas - USA (ASPO-USA) Written by Greg Geyer (Sunday, 19 November 2006) with Randy Udall, Energy Analyst, Co-Founder ASPO-USA Jeremy Gilbert, Former Chief Petroleum Engineer, BP Steve Andrews, Co-Founder ASPO-USA 7. Unconventional petroleum resources (Canada's tar sands, Venezuela's bitumen and U.S. oil shales) are very large and very misunderstood. All oil is not created equal. Although they total trillions of barrels in the aggregate, expanding unconventional production is expensive, technically arduous and slow. Because these resources can not be produced at high rates, they can do little to postpone the peak in global production. For example, at forecast 2015 rates of production, it will take more than a century to produce Canada's 175 billion barrels of tar sand reserves. (A financial analogy: Imagine having $100,000,000 in your IRA, but being forbidden to withdraw more than $100,000 per year. You are rich, sort of.) (ASPO describes themselves as... a non-profit, non-partisan research and public education initiative to address America s peak energy challenge ).

22 Tight Oil An important factor that is delaying peak oil

23 Horizontal drilling The combination of hydraulic fracturing along with horizontal drilling has resulted in vast increases in the production of tight oil and natural gas.

24 Hydraulic Fracturing combined with horizontal drilling

25 Where is it (both gas and oil)? Major tight oil formation Major tight oil formations

26 Tight oil production over time Note growth of over 4 million bpd in around eight years. Compare this with the growth oil-sand production growth in Canada of around 2.3 million bpd in around 25 years!

27 Hydraulic Fracturing combined with horizontal drilling

29 Deep sea drilling

Super High-tech efforts Excellent example: Shell and Chevron s Perdido project in the Gulf of Mexico Depth of the gulf at that location: around 8000 feet, worlds deepest well.

30 Super High-tech efforts Excellent example: Shell and Chevron s Perdido project in the Gulf of Mexico Depth of the gulf at that location: around 8000 feet, worlds deepest well. Uses extensive network of remotely operated stations involved in extracting and pumping the oil from a collection of different reservoirs. Subsea drilling depths in excess of 9600 feet. Began operation in March of 2010 Without the underwater network, it would not be commercially viable to operate. expected production of over 100,000 barrels per day.

31 Super High-tech efforts The scale of the structure is very large

32 Underwater network at Perdido Above is one of the images from an animation showing Shell s remote operated deep-water drilling operations

33 Underwater network at Perdido Some units pump oil. Some units provide pressure to force the oil out of the wells, and subsequently, up to the surface. Other units are involved in feeding the oil back to a single central location they refer to as the Spar.

34 Pre-construction tour Perdido

Energy. on this world and elsewhere. Instructor: Gordon D. Cates Office: Physics 106a, Phone: (434)

Energy. on this world and elsewhere. Instructor: Gordon D. Cates Office: Physics 106a, Phone: (434) Energy on this world and elsewhere Instructor: Gordon D. Cates Office: Physics 106a, Phone: (434) 924-4792 email: cates@virginia.edu Course web site available at www.phys.virginia.edu, click on classes