Climate Change: Update 2008 Michael Prather

Transcription

1 Climate Change: Update 2008 Michael Prather Fred Kavli Professor Earth System Science, UC Irvine Jefferson Science Fellow U.S. State Department 2005 / 2006

2 A Climate Scientist in the State Department: My Year of Living Dangerously 2005 / 2006

3

4

5 Bureau of Intelligence & Research tasks: develop workshops on emerging S&T issues write INR assessments for S on emerging S&T (classified) brief Bureau of Oceans, Environment and Science (OES) interface with the intelligence community publications (4, in press, to appear 2029)

6 Wrote assessment on increasing Hurricane intensities 5 days before Wilma hit Cancun

7

8 Sep ongoing consulting with OES/EGC on current ICAO aviation negotiations. working with OES/ETC & INR on timely detection of illegal logging and possible bilaterals in SE Asia, Africa, S America. preparing an INR workshop (Jun 2007) on. Managing Infrastructure and Disaster Risk in the Era of Changing Climate working with OES/E on possible scientific and policy approaches to control hemispheric air pollution. visit Embassy Bogota for ES&T consultation. working with STIC, may still put together workshop on Remote Sensing of Industrial/Agricultural Activity from Trace Chemicals

9 Office of External Research, Bureau of Intelligence & Research, U.S. Department of State Conference on Risky Climate: Disaster Preparedness and Foreign Policy in the 21st Century Thursday, June 21, 2007 How will Climate Change? Michael Prather Introduction to the IPCC scenarios and the AR4 Benjamin Santer Building Confidence in Projections of Future Climate Change James Murphy Uncertainties in Future Climate Change from Perturbed Physics Ensembles Francis Zwiers Temperature and Precipitation Extremes - Past, Present and Future Claudia Tebaldi Projected Climate Change: Continental U.S. vs. Other Regions. Isaac Held Climate Change Projections for Africa Sven Kotlarski (Daniela Jacob) Downscaling Climate Change: From Global to Projections in Europe Gavin Schmidt Regional Climate Impacts and Shifts in Mid-Latitude Circulation Patterns June 2007 U.S. Dept. of State / INR Conf on Risky Climate Michael Prather

10 Office of External Research, Bureau of Intelligence & Research, U.S. Department of State Conference on Risky Climate: Disaster Preparedness and Foreign Policy in the 21st Century Friday, June 22, 2007 How do We Respond? Thomas Karl Climate Normals in a Changing Time Ian Noble Adaptation at the World Bank Guido Franco Response of the States Rich Engel National Intelligence Estimate Trigg Talley Office of Global Change, OES, State Dept A workshop report will be prepared and distributed to all attendees. All remarks (except the first nine presentations) are off the record and not for attribution June 2007 U.S. Dept. of State / INR Conf on Risky Climate Michael Prather

11 Back at the University: My year of the IPCC 2006 / 2007

12 A Primer: What causes Climate Change? Changes in Atmospheric Composition greenhouse gases, aerosols, clouds, water vapor, volcanoes, + Changes in Land Use deforestation, desertification,... + Changes in Solar Output = Perturbation to Radiative Balance of the Climate System* (aka Radiative Forcing) * Climate System = troposphere + land + ocean

13 What is Radiative Forcing? Solar Heating of the climate system 200 W m -2 is balanced by Terrestrial InfraRed Cooling 200 W m -2 Greenhouse Gases trap Terrestrial IR

14 How have we changed the atmosphere? 2001 IPCC TAR COOLING WARMING

15 Radiative Forcing

16 Conventions/Protocols governing Climate Change 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted in 1992 and entered into force in 1994 (188 ratification 28 Jan 2003) 1997 Kyoto Protocol ratified 2004, in force 16 Feb 2005

17 UN FCCC ARTICLE 2 OBJECTIVE The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

18 Kyoto Protocol Annex A Greenhouse gases Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 ) Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) Sectors/source categories Energy, Fuel combustion, Energy industries, Manufacturing industries and construction, Transport, Other sectors, Fugitive emissions from fuels, Solid fuels, Oil and natural gas, Mineral products, Chemical industry, Metal production, Production of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride Consumption of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride Agriculture, Enteric fermentation, Manure management Rice cultivation, Agricultural soils, Prescribed burning of savannas Field burning of agricultural residues, Waste, Wastewater handling, Other

19 Radiative Forcing

20 Radiative Forcing (scenario A2)

21 What is the IPCC? The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in The role of the IPCC is to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change. It does not carry out new research nor does it monitor climate related data. It bases its assessment mainly on published and peer reviewed scientific technical literature.

22 What is the IPCC? Bert Bolin, pioneering climatologist Bert Bolin, a pioneering climatologist and the first chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, died Sunday December 30 in Stockholm. He was 82.

23 my IPCC Assessments & Special Reports

24 the 1990 IPCC First Assessment Report (FAR)

25 the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Reports (TAR)

26 the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Reports (AR4) Working Group I Report The Physical Science Basis Working Group II Report Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Working Group III Report Mitigation of Climate Change Cambridge University Press, Oct

27 Is global warming new? 2007 IPCC AR4

28 Is the warming real? Sea Ice is retreating Surface Temperatures are rising except Antarctica

29 2007: Arctic Sea Ice Retreat Greenland Melting

30

31

32

33

34

35

36 Is greenhouse-gas warming real? attribution studies

37 Is it greenhouse-gas warming? over every continent except Antarctica ONLY matches with anthropogenic greenhouse gases

38

39 Is the warming real?

40 Is the Warming consistent with Greenhouse Gases? 2007 IPCC AR4

41 Why do we care?

42 Why do we care? - vulnerability to extreme weather

43 Why do we care?

44 Why do we care? Hansen, 2006

45 Why worry about climate change?

46 Why worry about climate change? Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

47

48

49 Why do we care?

50 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 (2007) Working Group I: Physical Climate publication version of WG1 AR4 20 th Century mean surface T w/ & w/o anthropogenic forcing Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability Key impacts as function of increasing global mean temperatures: 0 to 5 C above Working Group III: Mitigation Estimated global economic mitigation potential in 2030 for different carbon costs (US$/t-CO 2 -eq) June 2007 U.S. Dept. of State / INR Conf on Risky Climate Michael Prather

51 Major advances in understanding climate change over the last 6 years 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) ocean heat uptake matches radiative imbalance (Levitus, Willis) 2005 hurricanes and global warming (Emmanuel, Webster, Landsea ) 2006 temperature trends in lower atmosphere resolved (CCSP 1.1) 2007 IPCC 4 th Assessment Report (AR4)

52

53 Major advances in understanding climate change over the last 6 years 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) best estimate something statistics probability distribution functions 2007 IPCC 4 th Assessment Report (AR4)

54 RADIATIVE FORCING of Climate Change: 2001 TAR best estimates for many components whiskers are undefined, even for long-lived greenhouse gases no central value for aerosol indirect statistics! 2007 AR4 probability distribution given for: long-lived greenhouse gases aerosol direct plus indirect total anthropogenic!

55 the TAR past

56 the AR4 past

57 the TAR future

58 the AR4 future

59 AR4: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity ( o C for 2 x CO 2 ) PDFs

60 AR4: Future Warming PDFs

61 AR4: Scenario Dependence next 25 years do not depend on emissions scenario!

62 AR4: Predicting Decadal Climate Shifts

63 Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change How are GHGas emissions changing? the past is a mixture the future is CO2

64 Where have fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions come from?

65 Shortage of fossil fuel is not going to help to stabilize CO 2 concentrations

66 2007 AR4: From whom are Greenhouse Gases coming?

67 2007 AR4: From whom are Greenhouse Gases coming?

68 2007 AR4: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from where?

69 What are mitigation potentials by 2030?

70 What are mitigation potentials by 2030?

71 What does a carbon tax of $50 per ton CO 2 equiv mean? Crude oil: ~$25/ barrel Gasoline: ~$0.50 / gallon Electricity: from coal: ~$0.05 ct / kwh from gas: ~$0.015 ct / kwh

72 pages

73 size of the problem

74

75

76 To whom does all this get reported? Marrakech Nov 2001

77 Welcome to the Sixth Session of the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, COP 6 The Hague, The Netherlands, November, 2000

78 2007 COP 13

79

80 2007 Synthesis Report (AR4 SYR)