Feasibility study (Regulatory and Market analysis) for a 500 MW Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Independent Power Plant in Albania
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1 Feasibility study (Regulatory and Market analysis) for a 500 MW Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Independent Power Plant in Albania Task 3: Market Analysis Final Report February
2 ABBREVIATIONS ACER AGC AL ALL AS AT ATC BA Bbl Bcm BiH BG BSP BRP CACM CCCPP CCGT CCS CEER CESEC CfD CHP CRM CROPEX CWE CZC DC DH DHNC DSCR EAT EBIT EBITDA Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators Automatic Generation Control Albania Albanian Leke (currency) Ancillary Services Austria Available Transfer Capacity Bosnia Herzegovina Barrel (of crude oil) Billion cubic meter Bosnia & Herzegovina Bulgaria Balancing Service Provider Balancing Responsible Party Capacity Allocation and Congestion Management Combined Cycle Cogeneration Plant Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Carbon Capture and Sequestration Council of European Energy Regulators Central and South Eastern Europe Connectivity Contract for differences Combined Heat and Power Capacity Remuneration Mechanism Croatian Power Exchange Central West Europe Cross Zonal Capacity Distribution Charge District Heating District Heating Network Charge Debt Service Coverage Ratio Earnings After Tax Earnings Before Interest and Tax Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization 2
3 EC ECB EEX EFTA EIRR EnC ENTSO-E ENTSO-G EPEX ERE ETS EU EUA EUR EV FCR FRR FOR FSRU FYR GDP CEGH GHG GJ GMDCA GR GRP GT GW GWh HDD HHV HR HRP HU European Commission European Central Bank European Energy Exchange European Free Trade Association Equity Internal Rate of Return Energy Community European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas European Power Exchange Energy Regulatory Authority Emissions Trading System European Union European Union Emissions Allowances Euro (the currency of the EU) Electric Vehicles Frequency Containment Reserves Frequency Restoration Reserves Forced Outage Rate Floating Storage And Regasification Units Former Yugoslav Republic Gross Domestic Product Central European Gas Hub Greenhouse Gas Emissions Gigajoule Gas Market Development Commitment Agreement Greece Gas Retail Price Gas Turbine Gigawatt Gigawatt hour Heating Degree Day High Heating Value Croatia Heat Retail Price Hungary 3
4 HUPX HVAC HVDC IAP IBEX IEA IED IENE IFC IGCC IGU IMF IRR Kg kj KS LAGIE LCP LCPD LFC LHV LNG LTC LTD ME MEUR MK MMBTU MPT MRC MSB MSC MVA MW MWh Hungarian Power Exchange High Voltage Alternating Current High Voltage Direct Current Ionian Adriatic Pipeline Independent Bulgarian Energy Exchange International Energy Agency Industrial Emissions Directive Institute of Energy of South East Europe International Finance Corporation Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle International Gas Union International Monetary Fund Internal Rate of Return Kilogram Kilojoule Kosovo (region in the Balkan Peninsula) Hellenic Electricity Market Operator Least Cost Planning Large Combustion Plant Directive Load Frequency Control Low Heating Value Liquefied Natural Gas Long Term Contract Limited (responsibility company) Montenegro Million Euro Macedonia Million British Thermal Unit Modern Portfolio Theory Multi-Regional Coupling Marginal Social Benefit Marginal Social Cost Megavolt Ampere Megawatt Megawatt hour 4
5 NBP NG NPV NREAP NTC NW OECD OMIE OPCOM OPEX OTC O&M PCR PJM PPP PSV PX RES RO RR RS SE SEE SEEPEX SL SO SOR ST TAP TC TSO TTF TYNDP UCTE UGS National Balancing Point Natural Gas Net Present Value National Renewable Energy Action Plan Net Transfer Capacity Northwest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Iberian Electricity Market Operator Romanian Electricity and Gas Market Operator Operating Expenses Over the Counter Operating and Maintenance (cost) Price Coupling of Regions Regional Transmission Organization in the East Coast of the USA Purchasing Power Parity Virtual natural gas trading point in Italy Power Exchange Renewable Energy Sources Romania Replacement Reserves Serbia South East South-East Europe South East European Power Exchange Slovenia Scheduled Outage Scheduled Outage Rage Steam Turbine Trans Adriatic Pipeline Transmission Charge Transmission System Operator Tile Transfer Facility (virtual trading point of NG in the Netherlands) Ten Year Network Development Plan Union for the Coordination of the Transmission of Electricity (former ENTSO-E) Underground Gas Storage 5
6 UK US USA USD VTP WACC WB WGP WHP United Kingdom United States United States of America United States Dollar Virtual Trading Point Weighted Average Cost of Capital World Bank Wholesale Gas Price Wholesale Heat Price 6
7 Contents ABBREVIATIONS... 2 BACKGROUND...17 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ESTABLISHMENT OF KEY PARAMETERS NATURAL GAS MARKET ELECTRICITY MARKET DISTRICT HEATING PRICE ASSESSMENT REVENUE FROM ANCILLARY SERVICES & OTHER ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST SIMPLIFIED FINANCIAL AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ANNEX 1 FORECASTED GAS PRICES ANNEX 2 ESTIMATED NATURAL GAS TRANSMISSION COSTS ANNEX 3 ESTIMATED AVAILABILITY OF NATURAL GAS FOR POWER GENERATION
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