Take-Home Message. Remarkable increases in streamflow of the James and Big Sioux Rivers when compared to broader USA

Transcription

1 Take-Home Message Slide 1 Remarkable increases in streamflow of the James and Big Sioux Rivers when compared to broader USA In other watersheds, high flows have been associated with increases in nutrient and sediment loading: Mississippi River, Maumee River Do not drink advisory due to microcystin Summer, 2014 Toledo Lake Erie

2 Comparison of trends in a National context Slide 2 2,084 streamgages with continuous observational records during were evaluated Used Kendall tau nonparametric test at p = 0.10 to determine trends

3 National context (cont.) Slide in Canada 1,981 in US 507 upward 276 downward 1,301 no Trend

4 Percent Change in Discharge by Drainage Area Slide 4 Sheyenne River (purple) James River at Scotland (green) Red River at Fargo (red) Big Sioux River at Akron (yellow) Drainage area in square miles

5 Potential factors Slide 5 Waubay Lake Higher groundwater levels in glacial aquifers may account for increased streamflow

6 Potential factors (cont.) Slide Annual streamflow (m3/s) James River near Scotland Water year 10-year moving average for Q and precipitation

7 Potential factors (cont.) Slide Annual streamflow (m3/s) Annual precipitation James River near Scotland Annual precipitation (mm) Water year 10-year moving average for Q and precipitation

8 Potential factors (cont.) Slide 8 Annual streamflow (m3/s) Annual precipitation James River near Scotland Waubay Lake Elevation 700 / / / / / / 542 Annual precipitation (mm) / Lake elevation (m) / Water year 10-year moving average for Q and precipitation

9 Potential factors (cont.) Slide 9 Hoogestaat and Stamm, 2015, in press Climate and Streamflow Characteristics for Selected Streamgages in Eastern South Dakota, Water Years

10 Take-Home Message Slide 10 Remarkable increases in streamflow of the James and Big Sioux Rivers when compared to broader USA In other watersheds, high flows have been associated with increases in nutrient and sediment loading: Mississippi River, Maumee River Do not drink advisory due to microcystin Summer, 2014 Toledo Lake Erie

11 Potential factors (cont.) Slide 11

12 Slide 12 Long-term Trends in Mean Annual Streamflow in the James and Big Sioux Rivers Presented by: Greg Delzer USGS SD Water Science Center Parker Norton Mark Anderson John Stamm

13 Potential factors (cont.) Slide 13 Hoogestaat and Stamm, 2015, in press Climate and Streamflow Characteristics for SelectedStreamgages in Eastern South Dakota, Water Years

14 Potential factors (cont.) Slide 14

15 Potential factors (cont.) Slide 15 Cretaceous (commonly shale) Extent of glacial deposits

16 Potential factors (cont.) Slide 16 Sites with at least 100 percent increase in annual streamflow Higher groundwater levels in glacial aquifers underlain by confining layer may play a role in increased flow in the Eastern Dakotas

17 Slide 17 Topics for Today s Discussion Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin Comparison of trends in a National context Potential factors Conclusions

18 Slide 18 Topics for Today s Discussion Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin Comparison of trends in a National context Potential factors Conclusions

19 Slide 19

20 Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin Slide streamgages with continuous observational records during were evaluated Used Kendall tau nonparametric test at p = 0.10 to determine trends

21 Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin (cont.) Slide 21 Coming back to this

22 Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin (cont.) James R. near Scotland Slide 22 Big Sioux R. near Brookings Big Sioux R. near Dell Rapids Big Sioux R. at Akron

23 Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin (cont.) Slide 23 James River near Scotland, Mean Annual Discharge James River near Scotland streamgage site average average average

24 Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin (cont.) Slide 24 James River near Scotland,

25 Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin (cont.) Slide 25 Big Sioux River at Akron, Mean Annual Discharge Big Sioux River at Akron streamgage site average average average

26 Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin (cont.) Slide 26 Big Sioux River at Akron,

27 Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin (cont.) Slide ,000 Big Sioux River at Akron, , ,000 CFS in June, 20 Peak streamflow, in cubic feet per second 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Year

28 Slide 28 Topics (cont.) Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin Comparison of trends in a National context Potential factors Conclusions

29 National context (cont.) Slide 29 Connecticut River at Montague City, MA Allegheny River at Kittaning, PA Susquehana River at Danville, PA average average average

30 National context (cont.) Red River of the North at Fargo, ND James River at Scotland, SD Slide 30 Big Sioux River at Akron, IA average average average

31 Increase in Annual Volume of Runoff from to Slide 31 Selected Northeastern Stations Acre-feet

32 Increase in Annual Volume of Runoff from to Selected Local Stations Slide 32 Acre-feet

33 National context (cont.) Slide in Canada 1,981 in US 507 upward 276 downward 1,301 no Trend

34 Slide 34 Topics (cont.) Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin Comparison of trends in a National context Potential factors Conclusions

35 Potential factors (cont.) Slide 35 Downward trends in headwaters and upward trends in eastern parts of Missouri River Basin Coming back to this

36 Potential factors (cont.) Slide 36 Groundwater withdrawal can be primary factor in streamflow depletion

37 Potential factors (cont.) Slide 37 Precipitation is a contributing factor in ESD especially in the fall

38 Potential factors (cont.) Slide 38 Annual precipitation anomalies compared to long-term average a forcing factor

39 SON DJF Slide 39 MAM JJA

40 SON DJF Slide 40 MAM JJA

41 SON DJF Slide 41 MAM JJA

42 Potential factors (cont.) Slide 42 Mean annual minimum temperature trends Minimum temperature increases have been observed in ESD and much of the West. Thus, T may affect snowpack and runoff, particularly in the western MRB.

43 Potential factors (cont.) Slide 43 Mean annual maximum temperature trends Maximum temperature hasn t changed much in ESD. Some potential indication of increased moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

44 Conclusions Slide 44 Remarkable increases in streamflow of the James and Big Sioux Rivers when compared to broader USA Downward trends in headwaters and upward trends in eastern parts of Missouri River Basin Groundwater withdrawal can be primary factor in streamflow depletion Precipitation is a contributing factor in ESD especially in the fall Higher groundwater levels in glacial aquifers underlain by confining layer may play a role in increased flow in the Eastern Dakotas

45 Further research Land use change More row crops Retirement of CRP Drainage tile, More cultivated crops, Changes in atmospheric moisture delivery to the continent Slide 45 Preliminary Information Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

46 Questions Slide 46 Contact: (605)