SGIPce 2014: Looking Under the Hood. January 13, 2016 George Simons Tom Mayer Jean Shelton, PhD Itron

Transcription

1 SGIPce 2014: Looking Under the Hood January 13, 2016 George Simons Tom Mayer Jean Shelton, PhD Itron

2 TOPICS FOR TODAY S WEBINAR» Introductions» Overview of SGIPce 2014 model Goals and objectives Inputs to the model Key outputs» Break for written questions» How to Run SGIPce Downloading and setting up the model Starting SGIPce Obtaining results Scenarios Manual changes to inputs» Break for written questions» Demonstrate the model for a technology» Q&A 2

3 SGIP CE 2014 OVERVIEW

4 GOALS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE 2014 MODEL» Publicly available cost effectiveness model» Updates the 2011 SGIPce cost effectiveness model Updated technologies, cost data, learning curves, rates and policies» Provides results to help the CPUC, PAs and stakeholders: Identify SGIP technologies that provide long term benefits Identify which technologies need SGIP incentives (and why) Establish a common basis for setting incentive levels among different technologies 4

5 SGIP CE 2014 MODEL Inputs SGIPce Run Processor Technology Inputs Global Inputs Calculation Engine Avoided Cost Technology Level Results w/inputs Program Level Results Rates by IOU Adoptions by Tech, Sector, Fuel, IOU, Climate Region. Outputs 5

6 SGIP TECHNOLOGIES EVALUATED» SGIP technologies eligible as of 2014 were evaluated» Technologies grouped by fuel type Non-fuel technologies - Advanced energy storage (stand-alone only) - Wind - Pressure reduction turbines - Waste heat to power (Organic Rankine Cycle) Natural gas fueled technologies - Fuel cells (both CHP and electric-only) - Gas turbines - IC engines - Microturbines Directed biogas fueled technologies - Fuel cells (both CHP and electric-only) - Gas turbines - IC engines - Microturbines Onsite biogas fueled technologies - Fuel cells (both CHP and electric-only) - Gas turbines - IC engines - Microturbines 6

7 CONFIGURATIONS EVALUATED Technology 2015 Study Nominal Size (kw) Fuels Configurations Small Fuel Cells - CHP 500 NG, OSB, DBG 3 Large Fuel Cells - CHP 1,200 NG, OSB, DBG 3 Fuel Cells Electric Only 500 NG, OSB, DBG 3 Small Gas Turbine 2,500 NG, OSB, DBG 3 Large Gas Turbine 7,000 NG, OSB, DBG 3 Small IC Engine 500 NG, OSB, DBG 3 Large IC Engine 1,500 NG, OSB, DBG 3 Microturbine 200 NG, OSB, DBG 3 Organic Rankine Cycle 500 Waste heat 1 Small Wind 50 Wind 1 Large Wind 1,500 Wind 1 Residential Fuel Cells Not treated NA Not treated Residential Storage 5 NA 1 Medium Commercial Storage 30 NA 1 Large Commercial Storage 5,000 NA 1 Pressure Reduction Turbine 500 In-conduit water flow 1 Utility-scale Combustion Turbi 100,000 NG Not treated Utility-scale Combined Cycle Sy 500,000 NG Not treated Totals: 31 7

8 MODELING RUNS AVAILABLE Fuel types Sector Utility Climate Region Utility Rate Financing Option Rebate Type Technologies Total Runs - With Fuel ,736 - No fuel ,048 All Possible 26,784 The model also generates incentives for the PCT test corresponding to MIRR levels ranging from 5% to 15% at individual percentage points 8

9 OTHER INPUTS» Global Discount rates (utility and societal), escalators Financing variables (e.g., tax rates, percent financed with equity, debt interests, etc.)» Avoided costs Four workbooks with gas and electric avoided costs - Utility, climate region, base case and high case Derived from E3 s 2013 NEM avoided cost calculator» Rates Electric and gas rates - Electric residential non-residential - Gas non-residential Utility charges (e.g., standby, departing load charges, etc.) 9

10 INPUTS: EXAMPLES OF BENEFITS» Avoided grid costs» Bill and energy savings» Rebates and incentives» Net Energy Metering Bill Credit» Environmental benefits» Reliability benefits» Tax credits and depreciation Example of weighted average electricity rates 10

11 CRITICAL INPUT ASSUMPTIONS» Treatment of DG Technologies CHP generation profiles based on SGIP metered data and then developed into representative 8760 hour per year profiles - Baseload (flat and step) - Non-baseload (peak and multi-peak) Wind profiles reflect location and weather dependent behavior DG capital and operating/maintenance costs - Current based on industry and SGIP data - Future capital costs based on learning curves derived from historical industry cost trends» Two super scenarios Base case (low GHG) GHG High 11

12 INPUTS: EXAMPLES OF OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS» Type of fuel consumed or energy resource used» Capacity factors» Efficiencies (electrical and system)» Useful waste heat recovery» Annual degradation rates» Emissions (CO 2, NOx, PM) Partial listing only 12

13 INPUTS: EXAMPLES OF COSTS» Equipment costs» Operating costs» Nonbypassable charges» Standby charges» Interconnection costs» Administrator costs Example of technology cost worksheet 13

14 FUTURE COSTS AND PORTFOLIO OF TECHNOLOGIES Market adoption occurs over time Driven by technology performance and cost improvements in the future We can take into account the effect of cost improvements on cost-effectiveness using annual adoptions and learning curves

15 LEARNING RATES AND PROGRESS RATIOS 15

16 KEY OUTPUTS» Results provided at two levels» Technology level Benefit/cost test results for each technology from 2014 through 2034 Cost and benefit components» Program level Benefit/cost test results for blends of technologies from 2014 through

17 STANDARD COST TESTS: PERSPECTIVES ON VALUE Total resource cost (TRC) test: combined utility and customer perspective Includes societal TRC test Participant cost test (PCT): participant s perspective Program Administrator's cost (PAC) test: utility s perspective Ratepayer Impact Measure (RIM) test: ratepayer s perspective RIM is not used in this evaluation 17

18 EXAMPLE OF OUTPUTS: LCOE PROFORMA FROM CALC ENGINE 18

19 EXAMPLE OF OUTPUTS: LEVELIZED COSTS 19

20 EXAMPLE OF OUTPUTS: ANNUAL CASH FLOW GRAPHIC FROM CALC ENGINE 20

21 EXAMPLE OF OUTPUTS: TABULAR COST TEST RESULTS (PCT) PCT Costs System Cost $ 1,983,005 $ 2,056,007 $ 2,131,696 $ 2,236,967 O&M Cost $ 773,458 $ 713,917 $ 660,730 $ 598,676 Fueling Cost $ 2,732,264 $ 2,939,901 $ 3,140,382 $ 3,358,138 Standby Charges $ 802,178 $ 893,963 $ 1,001,241 $ 1,165,591 Total Costs $ 6,290,905 $ 6,603,788 $ 6,934,049 $ 7,359,371 Benefits Total Rebate $ - $ - $ - $ - REC Revenue $ - $ - $ - $ - State Taxes $ 481,886 $ 503,723 $ 527,234 $ 558,607 Federal Taxes $ 1,899,448 $ 1,818,075 $ 1,902,933 $ 2,016,166 Avoided Bills $ 4,940,182 $ 5,407,758 $ 5,915,570 $ 6,655,386 Total Benefits $ 7,321,515 $ 7,729,556 $ 8,345,738 $ 9,230,159 Net Benefits $ 1,030,610 $ 1,125,767 $ 1,411,689 $ 1,870,788 Ratio

22 EXAMPLE OF OUTPUTS: GRAPHICAL COST TEST RESULTS (PCT) 22

23 EXAMPLE OF OUTPUTS: TABULAR MIRR TEST RESULTS (PCT) 23

24 BREAK FOR WRITTEN QUESTIONS

25 INSTALLING & RUNNING SGIPCE

26 DOWNLOADING 2014 SGIP CE The link for downloading the model is: 26

27 SGIPCE DIRECTORY STRUCTURE» The compressed file, downloaded from the web site, stores the files in the proper format. Just copy the files from the zip file to a folder of your choosing. Do not try to run the program from the zip file.» You will find a pdf in the zip file that has instructions on how this should be done. Please consult this pdf for more details. 27

28 THE SGIPCE MODEL STRUCTURE» The model was written using Microsoft Excel» The boxes above represent workbooks that perform various tasks The data in these workbooks have been developed with great care, but if the user finds that they want to change an assumption it can be done by modifying various workbooks appropriately. 28

29 FLOW OF OPERATIONS WITHIN THE SGIPCE MODEL» Main menu (SGIPce.xlsm): Super Scenarios Defines the global assumptions for each scenario - Uses pre-set or default input data located in workbooks but can be changed by user through pull down menus or input data workbooks User designs and runs Super Scenarios (BAU or Greenhouse Gas) - May run one or more technologies within a scenario» Input Data Workbooks (Inputs folder) DG Technology Data Global Inputs Avoided Costs Utility Tariffs» Calculation Engine (CalcEngines folder is used for tech workbooks) Calculates outputs based on input data values and scenario selections by user. Saves outputs with critical inputs for: - Program level results - Technology level results 29

30 SGIPCE CONTROL WORKSHEET» This is the main control screen This is what you see when you open the SGIPce workbook This is where you select the Technology, sector, fuel used, utility, utility rate, climate region, financing, and rebate type 30

31 SETTING SCENARIO IDENTIFIERS AND GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS» Some important considerations: Program scenario name: is a drop down menu that sets the model to run a Base Case or GHG treatment scenario Version description: should describe your particular run Save MIRR: if set to yes calculates the values of the rebates that result in the Modified Internal Rates of Return (MIRR) of 5 through 15 31

32 SELECTING TECHNOLOGY RUNS» The columns in the Technology Definitions table: Run Technology Flag Technology Name Sector Fuel Type Utility Climate Region Utility Rate Financing Options Rebate Type 32

33 CONDUCTING BATCH (SCENARIO) RUNS» The Buttons that control the program: Batch Process No Screen Updating Batch Process View Screen Updating Batch Process Run Unattended Clear Filters Set Run Tech Flag Off Set Run Tech Flag On Reset Progress Ratio Override 33

34 WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE RUN FAILS: THE ERROR LOG» The user must always consult this worksheet It shows the disposition of every run and if a run fails it shows where the failure occurred. 34

35 THE CALC ENGINE 35

36 SGIP CE CALCULATION ENGINE» Workbook Structure Cover - Run documentation Results - Results worksheet for current run. LCOE ProForma - Based on levelized cost workbook Inputs - Aggregation of inputs by period for use in the calculation worksheet Technology - Technology level input constants Annual Inputs - Technology level annual inputs Finance - Financial inputs 36

37 SGIP CE CALC ENGINE - RESULTS TAB TEST CALCULATIONS AND LEVELIZED CASH FLOWS

38 SGIP CE CALC ENGINE - LCOE TAB THE CALCULATION ENGINE 38

39 Examples of SGIPce Output Screens SGIPce Run Processor Calculation Engine Technology Inputs Global Inputs Avoided Cost Technology Level Results w/inputs Program Level Results Rates by IOU Adoptions by Tech, Sector, Fuel, IOU, Climate Region. 39

40 SGIP CE RESULTS WORKBOOK» Workbook Structure (Results folder) Cover - Run documentation Adoptions - Table of adoptions for all available runs SummaryStats_perUnit - Summary stats for each line item in batch run at the individual technology level. SummaryStats_Totals - Aggregated totals and cost test calculations - Graphical representation of results Template - A hidden worksheet used to store each technology line items results in the workbook. <Run results worksheet(s)> 40

41 SGIP CE RESULTS - COVER PAGE 41

42 SGIP CE RESULTS SUMMARY STATISTICS 42

43 SGIP CE RESULTS TECHNOLOGY CHARTS 43

44 SETTING UP A SGIP CE SCENARIO

45 CREATING A BASE CASE IN THE SGIP CE WORKBOOK Configure Identifiers Once configured Press a button to run the scenario Can select each technology or a group of technology Can select market sector (e.g., residential, commercial, govt., etc.) Can select fuel type (e.g., natural gas, directed biogas, onsite biogas)

46 CALC ENGINE PROVIDES FEEDBACK ON RUN DECIDING TO SAVE EACH CALCULATION ENGINE.» The user may decide to save the Calculation Engine for each technology selected in the run they define» By saving the all the Calculation Engines the user is able to review all the inputs used to generate the results.» These inputs include: Technology Fuel Type Utility Region (inland or coastal) Rebate type (EPBB or PBI) If progress ratio is different then default Expected capacity factor All inputs used to calculate the selected technology

47 EXAMPLE: ICE 500KW CALCULATION ENGINE COVER PAGE 47

48 EXAMPLE: ICE 500KW CALCULATION ENGINE TECHNOLOGY INPUTS 48

49 EXAMPLE: ICE 500KW CALCULATION ENGINE ANNUAL INPUTS 49

50 EXAMPLE: ICE 500KW CALCULATION ENGINE SETTING FINANCIAL INPUTS 50

51 EXAMPLE: ICE 500KW CALCULATION ENGINE RESULTS FROM RUN 51

52 MANUALLY CHANGING SGIP CE INPUTS

53 MANUAL CHANGES TO SGIP CE INPUTS: WARNING Making manual changes to the inputs or logic makes support next to impossible. Make sure you maintain a clean copy of every workbook in case a change causes the system to fail. 53

54 MANUAL CHANGES TO SGIP CE INPUTS: ONSITE BIOGAS EXAMPLE Field can be toggled from Yes to No. Yes if onsite; otherwise No. 54

55 MANUAL CHANGES TO SGIP CE INPUTS: COST CHANGES EXAMPLE Cost changes can be made manually to any of these costs 55

56 MANUAL CHANGES TO SGIP CE : THINGS TO REMEMBER» Changes are made to input workbooks in the Inputs folder» Always save the original files Use a suffix like SGIPce_Inputs_Tech_GTle3MW_NR_OSBGas_old» Rename the changed file to the original file name» Save the model» Run it with the changed values» Make sure version name reflects this is a manual change Inputs folder Input workbooks 56

57 BREAK FOR WRITTEN QUESTIONS

58 DYNAMIC RUN EXAMPLE

59 QUESTIONS?

60 THANK YOU George Simons Dr. Jean Shelton Tom Mayer