On the importance of climate change mitigation in developing countries a global perspective Seminar on Energy Efficiency, Lagos November 2, 2015

Transcription

1 On the importance of climate change mitigation in developing countries a global perspective Seminar on Energy Efficiency, Lagos November 2, 2015 Dr. Jan Christoph Steckel 1

2 Risks from climate change depend on cumulative CO 2 emissions... Very high risk No/ Low risks IPCC

3 The challenge of climate change mitigation Source: WDR 2010 Leapfrogging? 3

4 Possible stabilization pathways IPCC,

5 Possible stabilization pathways IPCC, 2014 ~3 5

6 Possible stabilization pathways IPCC,

7 450ppm CO 2 -only scenario and in all regions Emissions w/o climate policy A major part of the reduction will be achieved by introducing low carbon and highly efficient technologies Emissions in a climate change stabilization scenario Jakob und Steckel, 2014, WIREs Climate Change - International climate change mitigation efforts will not be successful without integrating efforts in developing countries - International climate policy frameworks (UNFCCC) ask developed countries to to support developing countries in climate change mitigation 9

8 Global emissions growth has accelerated between 2000 and 2010 IPCC

9 GHG emissions rise with growth in GDP and population. Based on Figure

10 One dimension: Energy efficiency improvements The mitigation potential by making existing technologies available globally could lower global emissions significantly Ward et al., in review Future technologies can even have a stronger impacty Page 12

11 The long-standing trend of decarbonization has reversed. Based on Figure

12 A renaissance of coal drives the global carbonization Standard Kaya factors Decomposition of Carbon Intensity Cheap and increasingly available coal drives carbonization of the global energy system Steckel et al. 2015, PNAS 14

13 Why coal, and why it is problematic Poor but fast growing countries in general (not only China!) contribute to a renaissance of coal, satisfying their growing need for (cheap, reliable) energy Reasons can majorly be found in coal being relatively cheap and increasingly available on world markets This is reflected in current investment patterns, currently ~280 GW are under construction today The coal fired power plants under contstruction in Sub-Sahara Africa will nearly double emissions Coal has a very high specific carbon intensity Burning coal releases ash, sulfur, and PM10 that lead to increased air pollution that impacts human health Once built, coal fired power plants emit for approximately 40 years and lead to severe lock-in effects 15

14 The climate problem at a glance Resources and reserves to remain underground until 2100 (median values compared to BAU, IPCC AR5 Database) Until 2100 With CCS [%] No CCS [%] Coal Oil Gas Bauer et al. (2014); Jakob, Hilaire (2015) 16

15 Understanding the reasons for the renaissance of coal Prices are not at all reflecting social costs of carbon Global subsidies for fossil fuels Fuel subsidies for fossil fuels are high, IMF estimates USD 5 trl in 2013 Only a few countries tax carbon Developing countries specifics: Removing subsidies or taxing carbon raises distributive concerns Additionally: Access to technology and capital is constrained IMF

16 % of population Many people lack access to basic infrastructure Telecommunications Drinking water Access to electricity Access to sanitation Clean drinking water Mobile telephony Source: Worldbank Achieving universal electricity access would cost USD bln / year until 2030 (Riahi et al. 2012) Energy 18

17 Jakob and Edenhofer, 2015 Climate change mitigation and sustainable development Welfare Private capital Health Education Transport infrastructure Natural Capital Capital stocks relevant for welfare Restricting use of the atmosphere, e.g. carbon budget Allocation of user rights Investments in public infrastructure (partial) appropriation of the climate rent (Taxation, emission trading, etc.) 19

18 Jakob et al., in press Using carbon pricing revenues to close infrastructure access gaps Revenues invested ppm goal, full technological availability C&C allocation of emission permits 20

19 Jakob et al., i2015 Removing fossil fuel subsides to close infrastructure gaps Removing fossil fuel subsidies can finance access to basic infrastructure in many countries 21

20 Feasible mitigation options Mitigation efforts in developing countries will not be successful when they are not integrated in countries development objectives At the same time, we observe a lock-in in fossil-fuel based energy systems, which will render long term mitigation targets infeasible Climate finance can be used to support the introduction of carbon-pricing schemes and/or reduction of energy subsidies Revenues should be invested into other development goals, like improving the access to electricity, water or sanitation 22