THE CARIBSAVE CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ATLAS (CCCRA)

Transcription

1 Caribbean Regional Headquarters Hastings House Balmoral Gap Christ Church Barbados West Indies Tel: UK Office Almond House Betteshanger Business Park Deal Kent CT14 0LX United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) ~ Protecting and enhancing the livelihoods, environments and economies of the Caribbean Basin THE CARIBSAVE CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ATLAS (CCCRA) Climate Change Risk Profile for The Dominican Republic Prepared by The CARIBSAVE Partnership with funding from UKaid from the Department for International Development (DFID) and the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) March 2012 Caribbean Climate Change & Livelihoods: A sectoral approach to vulnerability and resilience Water, Energy, Biodiversity, Tourism, Agriculture, Human Health, Infrastructure and Settlement, Gender, Comprehensive Disaster Management A Not-For-Profit Company

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES... V LIST OF TABLES...VII ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... X PROJECT BACKGROUND AND APPROACH... XI LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS... XV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... XVIII 1. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT Climate Change Impacts on Tourism NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES Geography and climate Socio-economic profile Importance of tourism to the national economy CLIMATE MODELLING Introduction to Climate Modelling Results Temperature Precipitation Wind Speed Relative Humidity Sunshine Hours Sea Surface Temperatures Temperature Extremes Rainfall Extremes Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Sea Level Rise Storm Surge VULNERABILITY AND IMPACTS PROFILE FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Water Quality and Availability Background Vulnerability of Water Availability and Quality Sector to Climate Change Energy Supply and Distribution Background Dominican Republic Vulnerability of the Energy Sector to Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security Background The Importance of Agriculture to National Development i

3 An Analysis of the Agricultural Sector in the Dominican Republic Women and Youth in Dominican Republican Agriculture Climate Change Related Issues and Agricultural Vulnerability in the Dominican Republic Vulnerability Enhancing Factors: Agriculture, Land Use and Soil Degradation in the Dominican Republic Social Vulnerability of Agricultural Communities in the Dominican Republic Economic Vulnerability: Climate Change & Agricultural Outputs in the Dominican Republic Human Health Background Direct Impacts Indirect Impacts Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries Background Vulnerability of Biodiversity and Fisheries to Climate Change Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements Background Vulnerability of Infrastructure and Settlements to Climate Change Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management History of Disaster Management Globally Natural Hazards in the Caribbean and the Dominican Republic Case Study Examination of Vulnerability Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development Background Vulnerability of Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development to Climate Change Case Study: Bayahibe Community, Dominican Republic ADAPTIVE CAPACITY PROFILE FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Water Quality and Availability Policy Management Technology Energy Supply and Distribution Policy Management Technology Summary Agriculture and Food Security ii

4 Policy Technology Farmers Adaptation - Initiatives and Actions Human Health Policy Management Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries Policy Management Technology Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements Technology Hard Engineering Technology Soft Engineering Policy Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management Management of Natural Hazards and Disasters Policy Management of Disasters in the Dominican Republic Technology Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development Demographic Profile of Respondents Household Headship Education and Livelihoods Food Security Financial Security and Social Protection Physical Asset Base Power and Decision Making Social Networks and Social Capital Use of Natural Resources Knowledge, Exposure and Experience of Climate Related Events Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES AND INITIAL ACTION PLAN Cross Cutting Actions Data collection, monitoring and evaluation Mainstreaming Climate Change Communication and networking Education and awareness Water Quality and Availability iii

5 6.3. Energy Supply and Distribution Agriculture and Food Security Human Health Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development CONCLUSION Climate Modelling Water Quality and Availability Energy Supply and Distribution Agriculture and Food Security Human Health Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development REFERENCES iv

6 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.2.1: Percentage contribution to GDP by sector Figure 2.3.1: Tourist arrivals and expenditure... 9 Figure 4.1.1: Surface Water Resources of the Dominican Republic Figure 4.1.2: Ground water resources of the Dominican Republic Figure 4.1.3: Decade of drought for a return period of 30 years during the month of September Figure 4.1.4: Distribution of wells across the Dominican Republic Figure 4.2.1: Global CO 2 emission pathways versus unrestricted tourism emissions growth Figure 4.2.2: Per capita emissions of CO 2 in selected countries in the Caribbean, Figure 4.2.3: Change in percentage distribution of installed capacity, Figure 4.2.4: Growth trends in per capita emissions in the Dominican Republic, Figure 4.2.5: Crude oil prices Figure 4.2.6: Fuel costs as part of a worldwide operating cost Figure 4.2.7: Vulnerability of selected countries, measured as eco-efficiency and revenue share Figure 4.3.1: Map Showing Areas Most Vulnerable to Drought Dominican Republic Figure 4.3.2: Baseline map: Current Major Environmental Constraints related to Agricultural Potential Figure 4.3.3: Major Agricultural Products Dominican Republic Figure 4.4.1: Dominican Republic cholera cumulative incidence rate as of Epidemiological Week 2, Figure 4.5.1: The endemic Rhinoceros Iguana Cyclura cornuta) Figure 4.5.2: Vegetation map of the Dominican Republic Figure 4.5.3: Location of coral reefs and selected tourist destinations Figure 4.5.4: High species richness and climate change vulnerability Figure 4.6.1: Dominican Republic - Overview Map Figure 4.6.2: Evidence of Beach Erosion at Bavaro Beach, Punta Cana Figure 4.6.3: Ryan Sim (University of Waterloo, Canada) surveying at Bavaro Beach with a High Resolution Coastal Profile Surveying with an RTK GPS System Figure : Total Land and Beach Loss due to SLR, Bavaro Beach, Punta Cana Figure 4.7.1: Impacts to housing in Jimaní following debris flow event in Figure 4.7.2: Successful reconstruction of damaged housing in Jimani including hazard design Figure 4.7.3: Hurricane Irene impacts in Dominican Republic Figure 4.8.1: The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty v

7 Figure 5.1.1: Institutions Presently Intervening in the Potable Water and Sanitation Services Sector Figure 5.2.1: Eco-efficiencies of different source markets, Amsterdam Figure 5.7.1: Relationship of the Disaster Management System and Society Figure 5.8.1: Age of Respondents Figure 5.8.2: Relationship Status of Respondents Figure 5.8.3: Sample Distribution by Average Monthly Earnings Figure 5.8.4: Financial Security: Job Loss or Natural Disaster Figure 5.8.5: Perception of Risk for Climate Related Events Figure 5.8.6: Support during Climate Related Events vi

8 LIST OF TABLES Table 2.2.1: Gross Domestic Product for Dominican Republic Table 2.2.2: Sector GDP in Current Prices (RD $ 0,000) Table 2.3.1: Visitor Arrivals to Dominican Republic and Tourist expenditure (US $ millions)... 9 Table 3.1.1: Earliest and latest years respectively at which the threshold temperatures are exceeded in the 41 projections* Table 3.2.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature for Dominican Republic Table 3.2.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Dominican Republic under the A2 scenario Table 3.3.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation for Dominican Republic Table 3.3.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Dominican Republic under the A2 scenario Table 3.3.3: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation (%) for Dominican Republic Table 3.3.4: GCM and RCM projected changes in Dominican Republic under the A2 scenario Table 3.4.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in wind speed for Dominican Republic Table 3.4.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Dominican Republic under the A2 scenario Table 3.5.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in relative humidity for Dominican Republic Table 3.5.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Dominican Republic under the A2 scenario Table 3.6.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sunshine hours for Dominican Republic Table 3.6.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Dominican Republic under the A2 scenario Table 3.7.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sea surface temperature for Dominican Republic Table 3.8.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature extremes for Dominican Republic Table 3.9.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in rainfall extremes for Dominican Republic Table : Changes in near-storm rainfall and wind intensity associated with Tropical storms in under global warming scenarios Table : Sea level rise rates at observation stations surrounding the Caribbean Basin Table : Projected increases in sea level rise from the IPCC AR Table 4.1.1: Major watersheds in the Dominican Republic Table 4.1.2: Annual Water Demands Table 4.1.3: Access to improved drinking water and sanitation in the Dominican Republic from Table 4.2.1: Emissions from fossil fuel use by sector, Table 4.2.2: Usage of Energy in Hotel Sub-Sector, Table 4.2.3: Assessment of CO 2 emissions from tourism in the Dominican Republic, vii

9 Table 4.2.4: UK air passenger duty as of November 1, Table 4.4.1: Selected statistics relevant to the Health Sector of the Dominican Republic Table 4.4.2: Confirmed malaria cases and deaths in the Dominican Republic between 2000 and Table 4.4.3: Cases of dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever between in the Dominican Republic Table 4.4.4: Leptospirosis cases in recent years in the Dominican Republic Table 4.6.1: Beach Area losses at Bavaro Beach, Punta Cana Table 4.7.1: Types of Hazards in the Caribbean Basin Table 4.8.1: Examples of Gender Differences in Response to Natural Disasters in the Caribbean Table 5.2.1: Average weighted emissions per tourist by country and main market, Table 5.2.2: Arrivals to emissions ratios Table 5.2.3: Jamaican case studies for resource savings Table 5.4.1: Total expenditure on health as a % of GDP from in the Dominican Republic Table 5.5.1: Biodiversity: Six Principles for Climate Change Adaptation Table 5.5.2: Multilateral Environmental Agreements to which the Dominican Republic is Party Table 5.6.1: Summary of Adaptation Policies to reduce the vulnerability to SLR and SLR-induced beach erosion Table 5.8.1: Length of Residency in Parish / Community Table 5.8.2: Age Distribution of Sample Table 5.8.3: Relationship Status of Respondents Table 5.8.4: Perception of Headship of Household Table 5.8.5: Household Headship Table 5.8.6: Family Size by Sex of Head of Household Table 5.8.7: Sample Distribution by Education and Training Table 5.8.8: Sample Distribution of Main Income Generation Responsibility Table 5.8.9: Sample Distribution of Involvement in Income Generation Table : Labour Market Participation: Involvement in Tourism Sectors Table : Labour Market Participation: Involvement in Non-Tourism Sectors Table : Source of Food Supply Table : Adequacy of Food Supply Table : Distribution by Financial Responsibility for Household (Receive support) Table : Distribution by Financial Responsibility for Household (Give support) Table : Distribution by Access to Credit viii

10 Table : Sample Distribution by Financial Security: Job Loss Table : Sample Distribution by Financial Security: Natural Disaster Table : Sample Distribution by Social Protection Provisions Table : Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Capital Assets Table : Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Appliances / Electronics Table : Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Transportation Table : Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: House Material Table : Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Access to Sanitation Conveniences Table : Power and Decision Making Table : Power and Decision Making: Intra Household Table : Social Networks: Community Involvement Table : Social Networks: Support Systems Table : Use and Importance of Natural Resources Table : Use and Importance of Natural Resources, by Sex of Respondent Table : Involvement in Agriculture: Access to Water Table : Knowledge of Climate Related Events Table : Knowledge of Appropriate Response to Climate Related Events Table : Perceived Level of Risk of Climate Related Events: Household Table : Perceived Level of Risk of Climate Related Events: Community Table : Household Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies ix

11 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The CARIBSAVE Partnership wishes to thank all the people across The Dominican Republic and in the Caribbean who have contributed to this National Risk Profile and to the Risk Atlas as a whole. There have been a multitude of people who have provided their time, assistance, information and resources to making the Risk Atlas effective and successful, so many people that it makes it impossible to mention all of them here on this page. We would, therefore, like to thank some of the key people and organisations here that have made the Risk Atlas and this National Profile possible. The CARIBSAVE Partnership wishes to thank the Ministry of Tourism (Ministerio de Turismo) in the Dominican Republic for its support and assistance, in particular Deputy Minister Mr. Luis Simo and Ms. Milquella Uribe. We wish to express great thanks to the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, the Caribbean Tourism Organisation and the Association of Caribbean States for their collaboration and support. Additionally, we wish to thank the following institutions: The Climate Studies Group, Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Mona Campus The Meteorological Institute of the Republic of Cuba Anton de Kom University of Suriname The University of Waterloo The Institute for Gender and Development Studies, University of the West Indies, Mona Campus The Health Research Resource Unit, Faculty of Medical Science, University of the West Indies, Mona Campus Ministerio del Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales Departamento de Recursos Costeros y Marinos (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Department of Coastal and Marine Resources) The CARIBSAVE Partnership would also like to extend its thanks to the Oxford University Centre for the Environment. Finally, last and by no means least, many thanks to the vision and commitment of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) for funding the CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas. This publication is to be cited as follows: Simpson, M. C., Clarke, J. F., Scott, D. J., New, M., Karmalkar, A., Day, O. J., Taylor, M., Gossling, S., Wilson, M., Chadee, D., Stager, H., Waithe, R., Stewart, A., Georges, J., Hutchinson, N., Fields, N., Sim, R., Rutty, M., Matthews, L., Charles, S., and Agosta G meiner, A. (2012). CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas (CCCRA) - Dominican Republic. DFID, AusAID and The CARIBSAVE Partnership, Barbados, West Indies. x

12 PROJECT BACKGROUND AND APPROACH Contribution to climate change knowledge and understanding Climate change is a serious and substantial threat to the economies of Caribbean nations, the livelihoods of communities and the environments and infrastructure across the region. The CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas (CCCRA) Phase I, funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID/UKaid) and the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID), was conducted from and successfully used evidence-based, inter-sectoral approaches to examine climate change risks, vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities; and develop pragmatic response strategies to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience in 15 countries across the Caribbean (Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, The Dominican Republic, Grenada, Jamaica, Nevis, Saint Lucia, St. Kitts, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname and the Turks & Caicos Islands). The CCCRA provides robust and meaningful new work in the key sectors and focal areas of: Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development; Agriculture and Food security; Energy; Water Quality and Availability; Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements; Comprehensive Disaster Management; Human Health; and Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries. This work was conducted through the lens of the tourism sector; the most significant socioeconomic sector to the livelihoods, national economies and environments of the Caribbean and its' people. The primary basis of the CCCRA work is the detailed climate modelling projections done for each country under three scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Climate models have demonstrable skill in reproducing the large scale characteristics of the global climate dynamics; and a combination of multiple Global Climate Model (GCM) and downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections was used in the investigation of climatic changes for all 15 countries. RCMs simulate the climate at a finer spatial scale over a small area, like a country, acting to downscale the GCM projections and provide a better physical representation of the local climate of that area. As such, changes in the dynamic climate processes at a national or community scale can be projected. SRES storylines and scenario families used for calculating future greenhouse gas and other pollutant emissions Storyline and scenario family A2 A1B B1 Description A very heterogeneous world; self reliance; preservation of local identities; continuously increasing global population; economic growth is regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are slower than in other storylines. The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis. A1B is balanced across all sources - not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end use technologies. A convergent world with the same global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives. (Source: Adapted from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 2000) xi

13 The field work components of the research and CARIBSAVE s commitment to institutional strengthening in the Caribbean have helped to build capacity in a wide selection of ministries, academic institutions, communities and other stakeholders in the areas of: climate modelling, gender and climate change, coastal management methods and community resilience. Having been completed for 15 countries in the Caribbean Basin, this work allows for inter-regional and cross-regional comparisons leading to lesson learning and skills transfer. A further very important aspect of the CCCRA is the democratisation of climate change science. This was conducted through targeted awareness, tools (e.g. data visualisation, GIS imagery, animated projections and short films), and participatory approaches (workshops and vulnerability mapping) to improve stakeholder knowledge and understanding of what climate change means for them. Three short films, in high-resolution format of broadcast quality, are some of the key outputs. These films are part of the Partnerships for Resilience series and include: Climate Change and Tourism ; Caribbean Fish Sanctuaries ; and Living Shorelines. They are available at Project approach to enhancing resilience and building capacity to respond to climate change across the Caribbean Processes and outputs from the CCCRA bridge the gap between the public and private sectors and communities; and their efforts to address both the physical and socio-economic impacts of climate change, allowing them to better determine how current practices (which in fact are not isolated in one sector alone) and capacities must be enhanced. The stages of the CCCRA country profile protocol (see CCCRA flowchart below) are as follows: a) Climate Modelling and Data Analysis (including analysis of key Tier 1 climate variables linking the climate modelling to physical impacts and vulnerabilities) b) Physical Impacts and Vulnerability Assessment c) Tourism and Related Sector Vulnerability Assessments (including examination of the sectors of water, energy, agriculture, biodiversity, health, infrastructure and settlement, and comprehensive disaster management) d) Development of Vulnerability Profile with stakeholders taking account of socio-economic, livelihood and gender impacts (including evaluation of Tier 2 linking variables and indicators such as coastal inundation) e) Adaptive Capacity Assessment and Profiling f) Development of Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies and Policy Recommendations (action planning). The final stages depicted in the flow chart focusing on the implementation of policies and strategies at ministerial/government level and the implementation of actions at community level, using a communitybased adaptation approach, are proposed to be implemented as part of the forthcoming CCCRA process as projects to be funded by other donors post the country profile stage. xii

14 CCCRA Profiling Flow Chart The work of the CCCRA is consistent with the needs of Caribbean Small Island and Coastal Developing States identified in the document, Climate Change and the Caribbean: A Regional Framework for Development Resilient to Climate Change ( ), published by the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC); and supports each of the key strategies outlined in the framework s Regional Implementation Plan. The CCCRA continues to provide assistance to the governments, communities and the private sector of the Caribbean at the local destination level and at national level through its primary outputs for each of the 15 participating countries: National Climate Change Risk Profiles; Summary Documents; and high-resolution maps showing sea level rise and storm surge projections under various scenarios for vulnerable coastal areas. It is anticipated that this approach will be replicated in other destinations and countries across the Caribbean Basin. The CCCRA explored recent and future changes in climate in each of the 15 countries using a combination of observations and climate model projections. Despite the limitations that exist with regards to climate modelling and the attribution of present conditions to climate change, this information provides very useful xiii

15 indications of the changes in the characteristics of climate and impacts on socio-economic sectors. Consequently, decision makers should adopt a precautionary approach and ensure that measures are taken to increase the resilience of economies, businesses and communities to climate-related hazards. This report was created through an extensive desk research, participatory workshops, fieldwork, surveys and analyses with a wide range of public and private sector, and local stakeholders over 18 months. xiv

16 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADMD Association for Disaster Mitigation AIC Aviation-Induced Clouds AOSIS Alliance of Small Island States APD Air Passenger Duty ASTER Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer BAU Business as usual scenario CAD Caribbean Application Document CAASD Water and Sewerage Corporation of Santo Domingo CBD Convention on Biological Diversity CCD Dominican Peasant Confederation CARDI Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute CAREC Caribbean Epidemiology Centre CARICOM Caribbean Community CARIFORUM Caribbean Forum countries CCCCC Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre CCCRA CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility CDCT Dominican Tourism Competitiveness Consortium CDEMA Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency CDM Clean Development Mechanism (in the context of energy and emissions) CDM Comprehensive Disaster Management CEMP Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan CENCET National Centre for the Control of Tropical Illnesses CEPREDENAC Central American Coordination Centre for Natural Disaster Prevention CERMES Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies CH Methane Gas CNE National Emergency Commission (disasters) CNE National Energy Commission CO Carbon Dioxide CONARTIA National Regulations Commission for Technical Engineering, Architecture and related branches COP Conference of the Parties CORASSAN Corporation for Water Supply and Sanitation in Santiago CPA Country Poverty Assessment CROSQ Caribbean Regional Organisation for Standards and Quality CTO Caribbean Tourism Organization CUBiC Caribbean Uniform Building Code CZM Coastal Zone Management DANA Damage and Needs Assessment DEFRA Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (United Kingdom) DJF Seasonal period of December, January, February DMC Disaster Management Committee DRM Disaster Risk Management ECLAC United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean EIA Environmental Impact Assessment ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation EOC Emergency Operations Centre ETS Emission Trading Scheme EU European Union EWS Early Warning System FAO Food and Agriculture Organization xv

17 FCO United Kingdom Foreign and Commonwealth Office FONDOCYT National Fund for Innovation and Scientific and Technological Development FUNDEMAR Dominican Foundation for Marine Studies GCP Ground Control Point GCM Global Circulation Model GDEM Global Digital Elevation Model GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction Gg Gigagram GGCA Global Gender and Climate Alliance GGHE General Government Expenditure on Health GHG Greenhouse Gas GIS Geographic Information System GPS Global Positioning System GWh Gigawatt hours GWIS Ground Water Information System HDI Human Development Index HFA Hyogo Framework for Action IAASTD International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology Development IAMAT International Association of Medical Assistance to Travelers IATA International Air Transport Association IBA Important Bird Area ICC International Code Council ICOADS International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Dataset ICZM Integrated Coastal Zone Management IDB Inter American Development Bank IEA International Energy Agency INDRHI Hydrologic Resources Institute INAPA National Institute for Potable Water and Sewerage Systems INSMET Meteorological Institute of the Republic of Cuba IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPP Independent Power Provider IICA Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development ISDR International Strategy for Disaster Reduction ISCCP International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone IVM Integrated Vector Management IWRM Integrated Water Resource Management JJA Seasonal period of June, July and August MAM Seasonal period of March April, May MDGs Millennium Development Goals MEA Multilateral Environmental Agreement MEPD Ministry of Economy, Planning and Development MPA Marine Protected Area MSY Maximum Sustainable Yields Mt Megaton N 2 O Nitrous Oxide NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NBSAP National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan NCDPMR National Council on Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Response NGOs Non-Governmental Organisations xvi

18 NO X Nitrous Oxides OCD Office of Civil Defence OE Operational Entities OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ONAMET National Meteorology Office PA Protected Area PAHO Pan-American Health Organization PCO Planicie Costera Oriental pkm Passenger-Kilometres PNE Parque Nacional del Este PNQV National Plan Quisqueya Verde PROMATREC Watershed Management Project in Peravia, Santiago and Axua provinces RCM Regional Climate Modelling RH Relative Humidity RNAT Regional Needs Assessment Team RTK Real Time Kinematic SALT Sloping Agricultural Land Technology SEESCYT Ministry for Higher Education, Science and Technology SEMARENA State Secretary on Environment and Natural Resources SEPAS State Public Health and Social Security SEOPC State Secretariat for Public Works and Communication SIDS Small Island Developing States SINAP National System of Protected Areas SLR Sea Level Rise SODOSISMICA Dominican Society of Seismology and Seismic Engineering SON Seasonal period of September, October, November SPS Sanitary and Phytosanitary (management) SST Sea Surface Temperature TCDPM Technical Committee for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation TIN Triangular Irregular Network TWh Terawatt hours UK United Kingdom UKERC United Kingdom Energy Research Centre UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFPA United Nations Population Fund UNIFEM United Nations Development Fund for Women UNWTO United Nations World Tourism Organization US United States (of America) USAID United States Agency for International Development USAID-DSTA USAID Dominican Sustainable Tourism Alliance VAT Value Added Tax WAAS Wide Area Augmentation System WEF World Economic Forum WHO World Health Organization WMO World Meteorological Organisation WTTC World Travel and Tourism Council WWTS Wastewater Wetland Treatment Systems xvii

19 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A practical evidence-based approach to building resilience and capacity to address the challenges of climate change in the Caribbean Climate change is a serious and substantial threat to the economies of Caribbean nations, the livelihoods of communities and the environments and infrastructure across the region. The CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas (CCCRA) Phase I, funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID/UKaid) and the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID), was conducted from and successfully used evidence-based, inter-sectoral approaches to examine climate change risks, vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities; and develop pragmatic response strategies to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience in 15 countries across the Caribbean (Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, The Dominican Republic, Grenada, Jamaica, Nevis, Saint Lucia, St. Kitts, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname and the Turks & Caicos Islands). The CCCRA provides robust and meaningful new work in the key sectors and focal areas of: Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development; Agriculture and Food security; Energy; Water Quality and Availability; Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements; Comprehensive Disaster Management; Human Health; and Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries. This work was conducted through the lens of the tourism sector; the most significant socio-economic sector to the livelihoods, national economies and environments of the Caribbean and its' people. SELECTED POLICY POINTS Regional Climate Models, downscaled to national level in the Risk Atlas, have provided projections for Caribbean SIDS and coastal states with enough confidence to support decision-making for immediate adaptive action. Planned adaptation must be an absolute priority. New science and observations should be incorporated into existing sustainable development efforts. Economic investment and livelihoods, particularly those related to tourism, in the coastal zone of Caribbean countries are at risk from sea level rise and storm surge impacts. These risks can encourage innovative alternatives to the way of doing business and mainstreaming of disaster risk reduction across many areas of policy and practice. Climate change adaptation will come at a cost but the financial and human costs of inaction will be much greater. Tourism is the main economic driver in the Caribbean. Primary and secondary climate change impacts on this sector must both be considered seriously. Climate change is affecting related sectors such as health, agriculture, biodiversity and water resources that in turn impact on tourism resources and revenue in ways that are comparable to direct impacts on tourism alone. Continued learning is a necessary part of adaptation and building resilience and capacity. There are many areas in which action can and must be taken immediately. Learning from past experiences and applying new knowledge is essential in order to avoid maladaptation and further losses. xviii

20 Overview of Climate Change Issues in the Dominican Republic The Dominican Republic is already experiencing some of the effects of climate variability and change through damages from severe weather systems and other extreme events, as well as more subtle changes in temperatures. Detailed climate modelling projections for the Dominican Republic predict: an increase in average atmospheric temperature; reduced average annual rainfall; increased Sea Surface Temperatures (SST); and the potential for an increase in the intensity of tropical storms. And the extent of such changes is expected to be worse than what is being experienced now. To capture local experiences and observations; and to determine the risks to coastal properties and infrastructure, selected sites were extensively assessed. Primary data were collected and analysed to: 1. assess the vulnerability of the livelihoods of community residents in Bayahibe and Saona Island to climate change; and 2. project sea level rise and storm surge impacts on the Punta Cana coastline. The sites were selected by national stakeholders and represent areas of the country which are important to the tourism sector and the economy as a whole, and are already experiencing adverse impacts from climate-related events. Vulnerable Community Livelihoods Vulnerable Coastlines There is a high dependence on tourism and natural resources for various livelihoods within the community. In times of extreme events like flooding, drought and storms, residents and workers suffer from income loss and/or property damage. Flooding is a particularly serious concern because there is no evacuation route. Relatively low household incomes, financial support linkages and security, as well as low levels of insurance coverage inhibit residents from recovering quickly after a disaster. Women bear more responsibilities in caregiving and earn relatively lower wages compared to men. Tourism is clearly highly dependent on the attractiveness of the natural coastal environment, which has been shown to be vulnerable to SLR. At Bavaro Beach, it is estimated that there will be a total land loss of approx. 243km 2, and total beach loss of approx. 230 km 2 as a direct result of SLR. 1 m SLR places 46% of the major tourism properties at risk; increasing to 86% under a 2 m SLR scenario. The current and projected vulnerabilities of the tourism sector to SLR, will result in economic losses for the Dominican Republic and its people if no action is taken to minimise infrastructure losses. Climate change effects are evident in the decline of some coastal tourism resources, but also in the socioeconomic sectors which support tourism, such as agriculture, water resources, health and biodiversity. xix

21 Climate Change Projections for the Dominican Republic Four primary variables were considered in determining the Dominican Republic s vulnerability to climate change. The projections of temperature, precipitation, sea surface temperatures; and tropical storms and hurricanes for the Dominican Republic are indicated in Box 1 and have been used in making expert judgements on the impacts on various socio-economic sectors and natural systems and their further implications for the tourism industry. Box 1: Climate Modelling Projections for the Dominican Republic Temperature: Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections indicate increases between 3.1 and 3.4 C in mean annual temperatures by the 2080s, in high emissions scenarios. Precipitation: General Circulation Model (GCM) projections of rainfall span both overall increases and decreases, ranging from -42 to +7 mm per month by the 2080s across three scenarios. Most projections tend toward decreases. The RCM projections, driven by HadCM3 boundary conditions, indicate large decrease in annual rainfall (-30%) when compared to simulations based on ECHAM4, which indicate no change in annual rainfall. Sea Surface Temperatures (SST): GCM projections indicate increases in SST throughout the year. Projected increases range from +0.7 C and +2.7 C by the 2080s across all three emissions scenarios. Tropical Storms and Hurricanes: North Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms appear to have increased in intensity over the last 30 years. Observed and projected increases in SSTs indicate potential for continuing increases in hurricane activity and model projections indicate that this may occur through increases in intensity of events but not necessarily through increases in frequency of storms. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements The majority of infrastructure and settlements in the Dominican Republic, including government, health, commercial and transportation facilities, are located on or near the coast and these areas already face pressure from natural forces (wind, waves, tides and currents) and human activities, (beach sand removal and inappropriate construction of shoreline structures). The impacts of climate change, in particular SLR, will magnify these pressures and accelerate coastal erosion. The CARIBSAVE Partnership coordinated a field research team with members from the University of Waterloo (Canada) and the staff from the Ministerio del Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales Departamento de Recursos Costeros y Marinos (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Department of Coastal and Marine Resources) to complete detailed coastal profile surveying on Bavaro Beach in Punta Cana. Results of these surveys indicate that 1 m SLR places 46% of the major tourism properties at Figure 1: High Resolution Coastal Profile Surveying with GPS risk; increasing to 86% under a 2 m SLR scenario (See Table 1). With a 3 m SLR scenario, all (100%) of Bavaro Beach in Punta Cana will become inundated. Such impacts would transform coastal tourism in this popular xx

22 area in the Dominican Republic, with implications for property values, insurance costs, destination competitiveness, marketing and wider issues of local employment and the economic wellbeing of thousands of employees. Table 1: Beach Area losses at Bavaro Beach, Punta Cana SLR Scenario Beach Area Lost to SLR m² Beach Area Lost (%) 0.5m % 1.0m % 2.0m % 3.0m % The high resolution imagery provided by this technique is essential to assessing the vulnerability of infrastructure and settlements to future SLR in the Dominican Republic. The imagery also has the ability to identify individual properties, making it a very powerful risk communication tool. Having this information available for community level dialogue on potential adaptation strategies is highly valuable. A detailed map from the study location in the Dominican Republic is provided in Figure 2. Figure 2: Bavaro Beach, Punta Cana, sea level rise impacts The current and projected vulnerabilities of the tourism sector to SLR, including coastal inundation and increased beach erosion, will result in economic losses for the Dominican Republic and its people if no action is taken to minimise infrastructure losses. Adaptation interventions will require revisions to development plans and investment decisions and these considerations must be based on the best available xxi

23 information regarding the specific coastal infrastructure and eco-system resources along the coast, in addition to the resulting economic and non-market impacts. Given the historical damage caused by event driven coastal erosion, as well as slow-onset SLR, the need to design and implement better strategies for mitigating their impacts is becoming apparent. There are a number of solutions that can be used to tackle beach erosion. Hard engineering structures such as levees and sea walls can be used to protect the land and related infrastructure from the sea. This is done to ensure that existing land uses, such as tourism, continue to operate despite changes in the surface level of the sea. Unfortunately, this approach may be expensive and provides no guarantee of equivalent protection following extreme events. Adaptation options should be implemented in the framework of integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) and all decisions need to take into account the broad range of stakeholders involved in decision-making in the coastal zone. Interventions should also benefit coastlines in light of both climate and non-climate stresses. Tourism in the Dominican Republic is clearly highly dependent on the attractiveness of the natural coastal environment, which has been shown to be vulnerable to SLR. More detailed analysis of the impacts of SLR for major tourism resorts, critical beach assets and supporting infrastructure (e.g. transportation) is needed to accurately assess the implications for inundation and erosion protection. A necessary part of this evaluation is to identify the land that can be used for tourism infrastructure and future development under a managed retreat response to SLR. All levels of government and administration in the Dominican Republic need to embark on a coordinated communication campaign to inform and raise awareness of SLR impacts and costs for decision makers within the tourism sector including operators, investors, planners, developers, policy makers, architects and communities. Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development Figure 3: Isla Saona, where many Bayahibe residents work in tourism-related livelihoods Source: Luis Simo, Ministry of Tourism More than 50 residents and workers from Bayahibe and Saona i participated in CARIBSAVE s vulnerability assessment which included a vulnerability mapping exercise, focus-groups and household surveys which were developed according to a sustainable livelihoods framework. This research provides an understanding of: how the main tourism-related activities, including fishing, vending and other micro- and mediumsized commercial activities located along the coast and have been affected by climate-related events; the community s adaptive capacity and the complex factors that influence their livelihood choices; and the differences in the vulnerability of men and women. Even though observations may be specific to some parts within the study area, overall findings (assessments of vulnerability and adaptive capacity) are assumed to be representative for the entire community. i In this document these areas are collectively referred to as The community. xxii

24 Community Characteristics and Experiences Bayahibe is a small, coastal town located to the south-east of the Dominican Republic with a population of approximately 3,000 residents. Originally established as a fishing village, it is now a popular tourist destination and there are a few large resorts on the town s outskirts; it is a part of the overall La Romana tourism zone. There is a high dependence on tourism and natural resources for various livelihoods within the community. Some of the more common tourism-based livelihoods include tour guiding, boat and dive operations, craft and jewelry making and vending and working in hotels, bars and restaurants as waitresses, ancillary staff, security officers, chefs, cooks and bartenders. Lower echelons of employment within the tourism industry have a far greater proportion of women than men, except within specific fields e.g. security and bartending. Fishing is another important source of income and tourism-supported activity in the community. Coastal and marine resources (i.e. beaches, coral reefs and other marine life) are particularly crucial for local tourism. Natural and earth materials such as seeds, shells and stones are necessary for craft-making and vending. Other resources in Bayahibe include freshwater springs and mangroves. Agriculture is not practiced in Bayahibe, but some homes have small kitchen gardens. Given the strong dependence on tourism and natural resources for various livelihoods within the community, short- and long-term climate impacts have several negative implications for the social and financial stability of residents in Bayahibe. In times of extreme events like flooding, drought and storms, access to natural materials used for craft and other purposes is limited. In fact, drought conditions may result in a reduction in the resource itself. In these instances, those dependent on such resources become very vulnerable. To address this, there is a need to build capacity to strengthen the resilience of livelihoods to climate change. This should be done by using the proven approach of Action Research, whereby selected individuals gain practical knowledge through first hand experience and personal exchanges from persons within and outside the community. It would also be important to promote relations between livelihood groups and Figure 4: Jewellery made from local seeds local tourism organisations so the latter could present opportunities for diversification and development of the local tourism product. Additionally, tourism organisations and entities need to further encourage patronage of community businesses, so that the community benefits more from the presence of tourism in their backyard. Some other vulnerable groups to extreme weather impacts in the community include disabled residents, children, sick and home-bound residents, pregnant women, fishers, merchants, boat operators and persons who work in cultural and tourism activities. Hurricanes, tropical storms and flooding result in loss of business and materials for numerous livelihood groups and consequently, a decline in cash flow owing to a reduced income and/or a temporary jump in expenditure for repairs or reconstruction. Some livelihoods are completely compromised and persons are left without a source of income. At the household level, Bayahibe residents have suffered loss of property and loss of life on previous occasions. Most locations in the community are generally vulnerable to hurricane (wind and rain) impacts and some low-lying areas are flooded during heavy rains, especially in the Punta de Bayahibe area. Flooding is a xxiii

25 particularly serious concern for some community residents because there is no evacuation route when flooding occurs and residents are rendered immobile until floodwaters recede. The only school in the community is located in the flood zone and school is cancelled on almost every occurrence of a flood. Notably, this school is also used as a shelter for residents during the passage of hurricanes. Residents are aware of the danger, but those who take the chance to seek shelter at the school likely perceive a lower level of risk on the school compound compared to their own homes. It is therefore imperative to establish a dedicated hurricane shelter in or close to Bayahibe (where flooding and storm surge impacts are less threatening) and improve the structural integrity of buildings that are used as provisional shelters to minimise possible damage and discomfort of occupants during a hurricane. Improper disposal of waste is a concern in the community as this blocks drains and sewers that would normally channel surface water out to sea. Without effective drainage, floodwaters rise faster and take longer to subside, thereby exacerbating inundation of low-lying areas in the community. Basic actions such as regular cleaning of water courses and more prudence in solid waste disposal can help to mitigate some of the problems associated with flooding. Despite common underscores of gender sensitivity in literature and findings based on experiences in other communities, neither men nor women in Bayahibe specifically indicated many differential impacts by severe weather, except in the case of pregnant women, or sick or disabled men/women who are at a relative disadvantage. Impacts are considered gender-neutral by community residents. Women by nature, however, would bear more responsibilities in care-giving. They also earn relatively lower wages compared to men owing to the local labour market segmentation and these factors would predispose them to a higher level of vulnerability. Figure 5: Ms. Akilah Stewart (standing) of The CARIBSAVE Partnership guides a small group in the vulnerability mapping exercise Knowledge of climate change within the community is fair and there is little disparity between the knowledge and perceptions of men and women in the community. The majority of the residents have heard or discussed issues on climate and the environment on previous occasions; but more in relation to general environmental education, solid waste management, disaster management, sustainable tourism initiatives and environmental work by the tourism sector. However, there have been few forums which xxiv

26 specifically addressed climate change and only some residents and workers in the area attended on any given occasion, depending on how many persons were aware of the event. Residents therefore consider their knowledge of climate change to be very basic, because they have only limited information on the more technical aspects of the issue. The adaptive capacity of community households is challenged by relatively low household incomes, financial support linkages and security, as well as low levels of insurance coverage. This therefore inhibits residents from recovering quickly from a disaster. Learning from the experiences of past weather events, the community is more aware of the preventive measures required to mitigate future impacts. In the event of an emergency, residents in general engage in a number of mitigating activities, which include: Noting hurricane shelter locations and seeking shelter if necessary Protection of boats used in fisheries and marine recreation in mangrove areas Prepare household and store of necessary supplies Create response and rescue teams (volunteers/red Cross) for post-event activities Follow all directions of local authorities Any adaptation interventions for Bayahibe and Saona should also contribute to development objectives (including poverty reduction). In an effort to reduce vulnerability to climate impacts, changes have been made at the government level to avoid the construction of buildings adjacent to the beach. Other adaptive actions include reconstructing and retrofitting buildings and cleaning debris from beaches. For environmental conservation and protection in general, measures have also been taken to reforest areas, reduce water and energy consumption, to maintain and improve the state of natural resources where possible, to reduce pollution and to educate not only the local community, but the entire population. Given the importance of tourism in Bayahibe, the feasibility of establishing emergency service departments here should be considered. Currently, there is a relative absence of emergency services in the Bayahibe community and while this is not uncommon in some communities, there is major tourism infrastructure in the area and some of the nearest emergency service departments are located at least minutes away. In any event, effective response is already hampered by this distance and further compounded should there be a crisis where the community becomes inaccessible (e.g. road blockage) a strong possibility during a hurricane. Community level disaster mitigation activities can be implemented by the community in collaboration with national disaster management agencies. The establishment of a disaster group in both Bayahibe and Saona will help build community cohesion, while at the same time increasing the community s resilience to weather-related hazards. Such a group can foster relationships with national emergency management authorities to facilitate training, education and communication activities. Agriculture and Food Security Distinct from other Caribbean nations, the Dominican Republic has an agricultural sector that is able to supply 80% of the food demanded for domestic use (by over 10 million Dominicans and approximately 1 million Haitians) and the over 3 million tourist who visit each year, according to FAO estimates. Further, the agriculture sector is estimated to contribute about 6% of GDP, 11% of foreign exchange earnings and generates more than 500,000 jobs. A significant sector in The Dominican Republic, agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts especially damage caused by storms, drought and floods with heavy implications for those working in the sector, and for national food security. xxv

27 The recent flooding of Lake Enriquillo (in 2011) exposed the social vulnerability of agricultural communities in the Dominican Republic as large expanses of agricultural land and livestock located in Cordgrass, the Duvergé Township, Bartholomew and, Jimani were left under lake waters. An analysis of disaster risks and vulnerability in the Dominican Republic ii shows that the provinces with the highest vulnerability for agricultural drought are: Jimaní, Pedernales, San Juan, Santiago Rodriguez Barahona, Santiago de los Caballeros, Mao, Azua, San José de Ocoa, Bani and San Cristobal (see Figure 6). Additionally, A UNDP-funded (2005) study on agricultural drought in the Dominican Republic confirms that drought is a cyclical natural phenomenon and it creates problems of water shortages for irrigation of crops, food shortages, livestock deaths and increased disease-causing vectors. The average period of drought is six months and after this period farmers commonly experienced storms and floods which further affects agricultural production in the regions studied. Figure 6: Agricultural drought threat in Dominican Republic (Source: Gómez de Travesedo & Saenz Ramírez, 2009) The main factor contributing to land and soil degradation in the Dominican Republic is improper land use, through activities such as: the elimination of permanent vegetation cover of some soils located on slopes, intensive agriculture development, construction of highways and roads without proper protection and mining operations that move large amounts of land and destabilize large areas. A second is poor farm management practices including misuse of soil slopes, overgrazing, slash and burn agriculture, improper irrigation practices and poor soil tillage. ii Gómez de Travesedo, N. & Saenz Ramírez, P. (2009). Análisis de Riesgos de Desastres y Vulnerabilidades en la República Dominicana. Documento de contribución al Sistema Nacional de Prevención, Mitigación y Respuesta a Desastres. Luxembourg: EU xxvi

28 At the community level, some agricultural communities have begun to use technologies such as greenhouses, selective seeding, drip irrigation, proper fertilization and rational application of pesticides to help to deal with drought, disease, heavy rains and winds. However, many poor rural farmers, especially the ones in the mountainous areas of the country are severely limited in terms of adaptive capacity to climate change. In an effort to encourage small farmers to build their resilience, a Sloping Agricultural Land Technology project featuring the poorest rural communities in the mountains of the Dominican Republic is suggested. The aim of such a project is to teach farmers in the mountainous areas how to use their resources effectively to produce more food by controlling soil erosion and restoring soil structure and fertility. Figure 7: River transportation in rural areas of the Dominican Republic At the farm level, low agricultural productivity is directly related to rural poverty and low use of technology. Lack of access to financial resources prevents many rural farmers from adopting the technologies they need to improve their production and their incomes. However, technology is available and is being used by some. Montero iii reports that fish farming was recently introduced in the Hondo Valley in addition to greenhouses covered with plastic raffia and anti-insect nets which have so far increased production of tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, melon, cherries and cantaloupe. In terms of technological adaptation at the national level, the following measures for the agricultural sector are identified in the First National Communication iv : an increased use of weather services by agricultural producers, such as early alert systems capable of forecasting droughts, agricultural fires, plagues and diseases and forecasting systems for crop yields and agricultural production development of educational programs for farmers on the use of sustainable methods in agriculture aimed at soil and humidity conservation and avoiding soil salinity development of new crop varieties, resistant to high temperatures, drought and more tolerant to lack of humidity in soil. iii Montero, G. (2010). Agricultura en el Municipio de Hondo Valle. República Dominicana: Montero. iv World Bank. (2009). Dominican Republic - Country Note on Climate Change Aspects in Agriculture. Washington: World Bank. xxvii

29 Given the significance of agriculture to the national economy and employment, the Department of Risk Management and Climate Change, under the Deputy Minister for Agricultural Sector Planning, has initiated a programme to reduce, mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts in the agricultural sector. As part of this programme the ministry aims to rationalise a land use plan for the agricultural sector and zoning of crops according to vulnerability of agricultural areas and organise responses to adverse events that affect agricultural production systems. Another prerogative of the department is to develop and implement plans with mitigation measures to reduce disaster risks and prepare agricultural communities to deal with climate change impacts at the farm level. While efforts to adapt to climate change are evident in the agricultural sector, future success will be dependent on the involvement of youth and the implementation of low cost technologies. Effort to build interest in agriculture among young people will facilitate the use new technologies because of the fact that youth are more adept with technologies. Energy and Tourism Tourism is an increasingly significant energy consumer and emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs) both globally (5% of CO 2 ) and in the Caribbean, with aviation the most important sub-sector. The Dominican Republic is emitting less CO 2 than the global annual average of 4.3 t CO 2 per capita (2.11 t CO 2 ) and therefore theoretically has room to increase per capita emissions. However, growth in energy consumption would suggest that current emissions are likely to be substantially higher. Current tourism related energy use and associated emissions are estimated to be the equivalent of 21% of estimated national emissions of CO 2, though excluding emissions from cruise ships. To meet energy demands in the Dominican Republic there are 54 generating stations and over 100 generators in the country with a 2009 installed capacity of approximately 3,000 MW, compared to 2,500 MW ten years prior (see Figure 9) v. The 2009 capacity was distributed near-evenly amongst diesel, hydropower, steam, gas and combined turbines. However, in light of economic, environmental and energy security concerns, the Dominican Republic has recognised the importance of reducing dependence on imported energy sources, and incorporating more renewable energy sources. The country now boasts the largest wind park in the Caribbean with 19 wind turbines which, in its first stage, will generate 33 MW of energy and this park is to be expanded over time. v CNE. (2010a). Electricity. Retrieved October 28, 2011, from Comisión Nacional de Energía (National Energy Commission; CNE): xxviii

30 Percentage Distribution by Generator Technology (2000) Percentage Distribution by Generator Technology (2009) 31% 16% 19% 15% Hydropower Diesel 7% 23% 22% 24% Steam Combined Gas 23% 20% Figure 9: Change in the percentage distribution of installed capacity, In examining the relationship between climate change, energy and tourism; major concerns arising include rising prices for fossil fuels and emerging climate policy which will make the tourism sector in Dominican Republic increasingly vulnerable. Additionally, climate change impacts also threaten energy infrastructure. High and rising energy costs should lead to interest in more efficient operations, but this does not appear to be the case in tourism generally. Rising oil prices will affect tourism in particular since aviation has limited options for using alternative fuels and increases in fuel costs will inevitably be passed on to the passengers. The National Energy Plan highlights specific proposals for managing energy production, distribution and consumption and ultimately pursuing a low-carbon economy through the development of energy efficiency and renewable energy initiatives. Specific objectives include reducing vulnerability of the sector, promoting energy efficiency, expanding coverage and developing national energy resources. The National Energy Plan has been further developed into a draft National Climate-Compatible Development Plan. This draft plan includes a tourism strategy that recommends changing the way the tourism sector generates and consumes electricity, for instance, making the vehicle fleet of the sector less fossil fuel-intensive and embarking on modern waste management to achieve a 35% reduction in annual emissions compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario. For the tourism, and other important high-consumptive economic sectors (e.g. transport), in order to assess the savings potential, energy audits need to be undertaken first, to understand where energy is used and where emissions are greatest. It can then be determined here improvements can be made, followed with practical actions to curb emissions and wastage. Ultimately, there needs to be an ongoing commitment from all sectors and society in general if these efforts are to be successful. Empowerment of tourism operators and the people of The Dominican Republic through continued capacity building and public education campaigns is an essential part of reducing energy consumption and the emission of GHGs the major contributor to the climate change phenomenon. Water Quality and Availability The Dominican Republic has abundant water resources; approximately 108 watersheds are used for irrigation, drinking water and the generation of hydroelectricity. Due to the country s topography there is a high diversity of microclimates and as such rainfall varies widely across the country. Average annual precipitation is approximately 1,500 mm ranging from less than 500 mm in the northwest and southwest to over 2,500 mm in the northeast part of the country. About 67% of the fresh water supply in the Dominican xxix

31 Republic comes from surface water and 33% from ground water. Most of the ground water resources are in the southern part of the country, such as the Rio Ozama and the Rio Yaque del Sur Basins. The annual water availability per capita was 2,711 m 3 per person per year in 1999 and has since decreased due to population growth; current per capita consumption of water is 2,186.6 m 3 per person per year. Despite the abundance of natural water resources in the Dominican Republic the supply of water to the population is considered as low, with recent population growth leading to the country s water availability being categorised as very low (less than 2,000 m 3 per person per year) vi, in Only 65% of the population has easy access to water for domestic use, while 41% of the population has household connection and only 11% of the country's inhabitants have sanitation vii. Urban access to improved drinking water has shown a decline since 1990 while rural access has increased (see Table 2). Table 2: Access to improved drinking water and sanitation in the Dominican Republic from Year Percentage (%) of population using improved drinking water sources Percentage (%) of population using improved sanitation facilities Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total (Source: WHO/UNICEF, 2010) Human activities and development is degrading the quality of water resources the Dominican Republic. Surface waters are threatened by pollutants, mining of sand and gravel from rivers, damming and diversions of waterways, dredging of canals and deforestation. High levels of erosion resulting from deforestation cause sedimentation of rivers and this in turn has serious impacts on aquatic biodiversity and obstructs water flow. Deforestation challenges result from activities in neighbouring Haiti as well; as seen during the flooding and debris flow disaster in the town of Jimaní in In an attempt to reduce the negative impacts from these activities, the Government of The Dominican Republic has developed policies for multiple uses of water resources including the construction of dams for power generation, irrigation, industrial and civil use but the country lacks a comprehensive water policy. Existing policies that guide the use of water resources are set by various agencies and are highly fragmented. The ministries are aware of the issues and some consensus has been reached about the importance of water management issues. Attempts to pass a new law for water resources based on Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) and the separation of roles, however, have not yet been successful viii. The main environmental problem affecting groundwater is the over extraction from aquifers, which has caused saltwater intrusion. Infiltration of domestic sewage and irrigation water into groundwater is vi SEMARENA. (2006). 3er Informe Nacional de Lucha Contra la Desertificación y la Sequía de la República Dominicana. Santo Domingo: Secretaría de Estado de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales vii INDRHI. (2010). Seis meses de una vigorosa gestión... Y seguimos trabajando! Principales logros en el período Agosto Febrero Santo Domingo: Instituto Nacional de Recursos Hidraulicos (INDRHI). viii Luciano-Lopez, O. (2006). Development of an Integrated System of Water Accounts as an Opportunity for Integrated Water Resources Management and Water Governance. Paper presented at the Water Accounting for Integrated Water Resource Management, Statistics Netherlands (CBS), Voorburg, the Netherlands. xxx

32 another concern in the management of national water resources. There is a significant need for developing water supply management plans and accountability for water use or water consumption. The Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARN) was formed in 2000 after the enactment of an environmental framework law. This law has started to establish basic principles regarding issues such as the penalty for polluting and effluent limits and also mandated that every new hotel should include a wastewater treatment plant ix. However, the environmental legislative body has not yet addressed any regulations on water consumption x. Better data on groundwater flow, the impacts of SLR on aquifers and surface contamination would provide strong support for such a policy. As such, it is recommended that models of ground water be urgently developed to effectively mitigate the effects of climate change on freshwater resources. In addition, the development of measures to protect aquifers from contamination is also needed. For example, reforestation of hill slopes will reduce erosion. The principles of IWRM, including public participation and diversification of water sources, can enable the Dominican Republic to better manage their water resources and keep development processes and other economic activities from degrading this essential resource. Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management The primary hazards affecting this Caribbean nation are tropical storms, hurricanes and flooding. The Dominican Republic is located in one of the most seismically active zones in the world; located at the boundary between the North American and Caribbean tectonic plates xi. Furthermore, it s many rivers and streams have been known to cause flooding, especially in the Haina, Nizao, Ocoa, San Juan, Yaque del Sur, Yaque del Norte, Yuna, Soco and the riverbanks of the cities of Santo Figure 10: Beach erosion in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic Domingo and Santiago watersheds. ix Werbrouck, P., Martin-Hurtado, R., and Morrill, J. (2004). Environmental Priorities and Strategic Options Country Environmental Analysis: Dominican Republic: Caribbean Country Management Unit x Grady, C., and Younos, T. (2010). Water Use and Sustainability in La Altagracia, Dominican Republic, VWRRC Special Report No. SR Blacksburg, Virginia: Virginia Water Resources Research Center, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. xi Prentice, C., Mann, P., Taylor, F., Burr, G., &Valastro, S. (1993). Paleoseismicity of the North American-Caribbean plate boundary (Septentrional fault), Dominican Republic. Geology, 21, xxxi

33 The Dominican Republic has the third highest economic risk exposure to two or more hazards according to the 2008 Disaster Hotspot study. In the period between 1980 and 2008, the Dominican Republic has experienced 40 natural disasters, which affected more than 2.5 million people and caused economic damages in excess of US $2.5 billion xii. The recent passage of Hurricane Irene near the popular tourism destination of Punta Cana and the rising lake levels in Lago Enriquillo are evidence of the vulnerability of coastal communities. These risks are manageable to some extent and building public awareness will be key to successful vulnerability reduction across the Dominican Republic. Another threat to the Dominican Republic comes from the seismic hazard of its location on the Enriquillo- Plantain Garden Fault. While the January 2010 earthquake in Haiti released some of the pressure at this fault, the risk of earthquakes in Hispaniola is still significant. In response to the seismic hazard, the Dominican Republic has a building code which considers shaking resistance, along with wind resistance considerations. This code was reviewed following the 1998 passage of Hurricane George and new structural requirements taking local conditions and building materials into consideration would now part of the legal Building Code. Nevertheless, unplanned urban growth in areas unsuitable for development and weak enforcement of building codes and zoning regulations xii are of particular concern. Enforcement of the code must be prioritised to continue to reduce vulnerability from the early stages of development. Analysis of some recent disaster situations will demonstrate both the diversity of hazards and the differing levels of resilience to hazard impacts. A debris flow and flooding disaster that occurred in Jimaní in 2004 exposed a border community, including a significant informal settlement area La 40, to flooding and debris flow impacts after over 500 mm of rain fell in the area. Heavy rainfall, combined with deforestation in the upper catchment (80% of which is in Haiti) were the primary causes of this extreme event, while the geomorphology of the area (poorly consolidated sediments and gravel consistent with alluvial deposition) and the limited early warning capacity in the communities exacerbated vulnerability xiii. The May 2004 debris flow carried sediments and boulders into the town of Jimaní, damaging at least 870 homes and killing approximately 400 residents, many of which were from Jimaní s informal settlements. The response to the Jimaní disaster was challenging because of the cross-border nature of the hazards and impacts of this event. However, public participation in the decision making for reconstruction led to successful relocation of residents in homes that included a safe zone where flooding would have minimal or no impact, and redevelopment of the community in an area that was safer. Whilst successful, generally, participatory planning and decision-making in relocation and reconstruction of this nature are not standard procedures, but should be used as a model to address similar scenarios in the future. xii GFDRR. (2010). Disaster Risk Management in Latin America and the Caribbean: GFDRR Country Notes, Dominican Republic. Sustainable Development Unit, World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction. xiii Doberstein, B. (2009). Post-disaster assessment of hazard mitigation for small and medium-magnitude debris flow disasters in Bali, Indonesia and Jimani, Dominican Republic. Natural Hazards, 50, xxxii

34 Figure 11: Successful reconstruction of damaged housing in Jimaní - including hazard design (Source: Doberstein & Stager, in press) Disaster management in the Dominican Republic is well organised and supported by national legislation and policies relating to all stages of the disaster management cycle: prevention, mitigation, response and recovery. There are multiple agencies involved, from both the public and private sectors, with clearly defined roles and responsibilities including: Office of Civil Defence (OCD) the National Council on Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Response (NCDPMR) the National Commission for Emergencies (CNE), - which is made up of the Technical Committee for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (TCDPM) and - the Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) municipal level committees for disaster prevention, mitigation and response The NCDPMR has the responsibility of encouraging public participation and capacity building. The general public are aware of some of the hazards they face, particularly hurricanes, but more could be done to increase knowledge which would also reduce vulnerability. Additionally, though the disaster management system is fairly well organised, government institutions are lacking of some technical resources and require more financial resources in order to further improve disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in all levels of society and in all sectors of the country. Human Health Health is an important issue in the tourism industry because tourists are susceptible to acquiring diseases as well as potential carriers of vector-borne diseases. Additionally, the Dominican Republic s tropical climate makes it suitable for the transmission of a number of vector-borne diseases. The effects of climaterelated phenomena on public health can be direct or indirect. The former includes weather related mortality and morbidity arising from natural disasters (e.g. hurricanes) and high temperatures (e.g. hot days/nights). Indirect impacts are more extensive, including vector borne diseases such as dengue fever and malaria. xxxiii

35 In the Dominican Republic Initial Communication to the UNFCCC, the health sector was one of four sectors assessed in relation to climate scenarios. The main focus of discussion was on malaria. Dengue fever was not addressed in this document but was subsequently included (along with malaria) in the Second National Communication (SNC), suggesting an increase in incidences sufficient to warrant concern. This is consistent with the findings in Table 3. In 2002 which was an epidemic year, the rate of dengue fever occurrence was 37.6 per 1,000 inhabitants in the Dominican Republic while countries such as Honduras with and Trinidad and Tobago persons, had the highest incidence of dengue fever in the Americas. The rate of occurrence subsequently doubled in 2003, with 73 per 1,000 inhabitants xiv. Table 3: Cases of dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever between in the Dominican Republic Year No. dengue cases 6,268 2,473 2,977 6,243 9,639 4,656 8,273 12,119 Rate per 100, inhabitants No. cases dengue haemorrhagic No of deaths (Source: PAHO, 2007b; Ministerio de Salud Publica, 2011) Areas with the highest cases of dengue fever include Santo Domingo, San Cristóbal, Distrito Nacional and Santiago. After natural disasters, dengue fever cases usually rise because conditions become suitable for the growth and spread of the vectors. No other diseases were specifically outlined in the SNC, partly due to the overwhelming burden dengue fever and malaria placed on the country. Naturally occurring high precipitation events, particularly hurricanes, are an important factor in triggering increases in the transmission of both malaria and dengue fever and The Dominican Republic presents a unique situation with the presence of two dengue fever vectors, A. aegypti and A. albopictus xv. At present, the World Health Organization has classified the progress of the Dominican Republic in reducing the number of cases of malaria between 2000 and 2009 as having limited evidence of decrease xvi. Table 4 shows the number of reported cases of malaria between 2000 and 2009, with the highest incidence of cases occurring in 2005 (75% of cases were from rural areas) with a subsequent consistent decline between 2006 and The cause of this reduction is uncertain. However, it is recommended that the Integrated Vector Management (IVM) Programme developed by WHO be adopted as a holistic approach towards curbing the proliferation of vector populations (during peak seasons especially) and the associated disease threats. Table 4: Confirmed malaria cases and deaths in the Dominican Republic between 2000 and 2009 YEAR No. cases 1,233 1,038 1,296 1,529 2,355 3,837 3,525 2,711 1,840 1,643 No. deaths xiv Penson, C. N. (2006). Dengue: AmenazaRecurrentequedemandaunapolitica de gestion integral. Perspectiva Social Dominicana, BoletínMensual de la Unidad de InformaciónSocial (Año 1, No. 7) xv Pena, C. J., Gonzalvez, G., and Chadee, D. D. (2003).Seasonal prevalence and container preferences of Aedesalbopictus in Santo Domingo City, Dominican Republic. Journal of Vector Ecology, xvi WHO. (2010c). World Malaria Report 2010, WHO Global Malaria Programme. Geneva: World Health Organization xxxiv

36 (Source: WHO, 2010a) Two important findings to note are that at least one study has found that malaria is the most common cause of fever among tourists upon returning from travel in infected areas xvii and this disease is the most reported cause of hospitalisations of tourists from malaria prone destinations (Wilder-Smith and Schwartz, 2005). While this is a treatable condition, it can result in grave illness or even death. Given these trends, especially as tourism is a key sector in The Dominican Republic, further research should be conducted to link the epidemiology of diseases in The Dominican Republic with climate data. The implications of weather for health, sanitation and nutrition are numerous: In the Dominican Republic, droughts are either natural or are associated with poor water resource management in vulnerable catchment areas. Winds, dry spells and drought conditions can increase particulate matter in the air, compromising air quality. Currently the particulate matter pollution is becoming an increasing concern and this has resulted in acute respiratory infections becoming an important cause of morbidity trends. Increased precipitation may also result in contamination of large areas with raw sewage especially from pit latrines. In the Dominican Republic there are water quality concerns due to pollution from human and animal wastes as well as from fertilizers and other sources. Diseases associated with poor water quality and the contamination of water sources include acute diarrhoea, typhoid fever, hepatitis and paratyphoid fever. Cholera and schistosomiasis which is endemic to the Dominican Republic also present challenges. Changing weather patterns could have an impact on agricultural productivity if precipitation decreases because farmers depend largely on rainfall for irrigation, and food availability could have consequences for the health of the population, particularly the poorest sectors of the society. In addition, drought and heat stress could also impact the growth of crops in the field, e.g. heat stress of vegetables and other crops. Mortality and morbidity rates due to injuries sustained during natural disasters such as hurricanes, tropical storms and floods are important considerations when assessing the vulnerability of a country to climate change. In the Dominican Republic, over 75% of the population lives in areas that are at risk to natural hazards, with floods having the greatest impact on the health sector. Physical and capital damage to health facilities may also arise due to natural disasters as has been experienced during hurricane events. Displacement of persons and loss of shelter are also important because of the associated mental and physical health implications. Increasing temperatures can result in heat stress in a population and heat wave events have been found to be associated with short-term increases in mortality globally as well as morbidity related to heat exhaustion and dehydration. The elderly and young are more susceptible than other groups as well as persons with chronic illnesses, people doing manual labour and persons who engage in outdoor livelihoods e.g. construction workers and fishermen. Increased temperatures can also have a negative impact on persons prone to, or suffering from cardiovascular diseases. In the National Development Strategy of the Dominican Republic, climate change and health are mentioned in the line of action detailing the prevention, mitigation and reversing, in coordination with relevant local authorities; the effects of climate change on health in the country. The average of the public xvii Wichmann, O., Mühlberger, N., and Jelinek, T. (2003). Dengue - the underestimated risk in travellers. In ChusakPrasittisuk (Ed.), Dengue Bulletin, The South-East Asia and Western Pacific Region (Vol. 27, pp ). Geneva WHO. xxxv

37 expenditure on health, expressed as a percentage of GDP, is 5.76% for 1995 to 2009, however, other sources give significantly lower estimates. For instance, UNDP (2010) estimates that between 2000 and 2007, the average was estimated to be 1.9% of total GDP. The country s current high disparity in income generation has affected the health sector. It is expected that it will continue to affect the resources available to the poor and by extension deterioration of the social condition of the society. The National Development Strategy has also devised specific objectives to reduce and alleviate poverty in the country. These includes the stimulation and consolidation of community networks, as well as improvements in the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of poverty reduction policies and the promotion of poverty reduction programmes and projects. The Dominican Republic is on its way to meet the Millennium Development Goal of reducing the incidence of malaria by 2015 over 75% of the 1990 level. In 2004, there were 26 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. This figure dropped to 16.8 in 2009 and a target rate of 6.6 cases may be achievable by However, coming out of a health report in 2006, it was noted that mortality and morbidity was under reported to as much as 45-55% and similarly morbidity records were deficient, underscoring a need for more thorough data collection and reporting systems to be established and employed in the health sector. To protect against pests and other diseases as well as to ensure overall health, the USAID/RED programme has undertaken initiatives in Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) management and compliance. The agency has also targeted pesticide use in the agricultural section with the goal of protecting eco-systems and human health and seeks to encourage the use of Integrated Pest Management. An important area that can never be over-emphasised for the management of public health (including locals and tourists/visitors) in the face of climate change is that continued health education and promotion campaigns should be developed. This will be crucial in sustainable disease prevention and may save lives. Health sector reform and de-centralisation of the health sector in the last decade along with continued focus on refining management objectives will be crucial to championing forth in the current direction the Ministry of Health is taking. Increased research and validation of data for example with diseases of low but consistent prevalence such as dengue, malaria and leptospirosis should be given greater attention. Such research will pave the way for a sound platform from which to inform policy and planning for the future as the climate changes. Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries Figure 12: The endemic Rhinoceros Iguana (Cyclura cornuta) (Source: /commons/6/6b/rhinoiguanamay07pedernales.jpg) xxxvi The varied landscapes and topography of the Dominican Republic have endowed the country with one of the richest levels of biodiversity and endemism in the Caribbean. However, the removal of the moist forests cover over the years has caused environmental degradation and the unique biodiversity is increasingly threatened by unsustainable agricultural practices, large-scale mining, invasive species, wild fires, hunting, overfishing and extensive urban and coastal developments. All of these stressors are reducing the natural resilience of eco-systems and their ability to adapt to the present and projected

38 changes in climate. The resources that tourism depends on, such as coastal and marine resources, face several climatic and non-climatic stressors which threaten to depreciate these vital components of the local tourism product. The Dominican Republic s coral reefs which provide several ecological services are threatened by coastal development and increased pressures from pollution, over-fishing, diving and boating activities and will be further affected by ocean acidification, SLR and increased SST. The World Resource Institute (WRI) Reefs at Risk in the Dominican Republic report estimated the potential increase in beach erosion that could result from further degradation of its coral reefs, climate change notwithstanding. The study concluded that 10 years after the disappearance of live corals, erosion rates could increase by more than 100% on eastern beaches and by more than 65 % on southern beaches. The country is the premier whale-watching destination in the Caribbean with 33 companies taking about 28,000 passengers on tours in 2008, generating a total of US $8,927,000. The waters off the coasts are breeding grounds for large numbers of humpback whales that migrate to the north coast during the winter months to mate and calve. Samana Bay, Silver Bank and Navidad Bank are the three main areas in which these whales congregate; all three are included in the Marine Mammals Sanctuary xviii. Climate change impacts on the chemical and physical characteristics of marine waters will have negative consequences for whale watching tour operators of the Dominican Republic. Information on the biology of many cetaceans is limited and this makes it difficult to predict the effects that climate change may have on them. Nevertheless it is likely that changes in global temperature, sea levels, sea-ice extent, ocean acidification and salinity, rainfall patterns and extreme weather events will decrease the range of many marine mammals xix. This could mean significant financial losses for tourism operators and their employees in Samana Bay, Silver Bank and Navidad Bank. Climate change impacts will affect forests and marine resources, thus also having negative impacts on the livelihoods of those who depend on these resources. Forests have been historically important to the people of the Dominican Republic as a source of both wood and non-wood products, for the regulation of microclimate, protection from flood waters and cyclonic winds. Forests are essential habitat for the country s rich biodiversity and numerous threatened and endemic species. Slash and burn agriculture, charcoal production, commercial exploitation of lumber and forest fires has resulted in significant levels of deforestation. xviii O Connor, S., Campbell, R., Cortez, H., & Knowles, T. (2009). Whale Watching Worldwide: Tourism Numbers, Expenditures and Expanding Economic Benefits. Yarmouth MA: IFAW. xix Elliott, W., & Simmonds, M. (2007). Whales in hot water? The impact of a changing climate on whales, dolphins and porpoises: a call for action. Gland Switzerland, Chippenham UK: WWF-International WDCS. xxxvii

39 Figure 13: Lush forest cover in the Dominican Republic and a forested area destroyed by fire Warmer waters could potentially alter breeding and migration patterns and may drive pelagic species away from the tropics. An expected increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones will mean increase losses to the fisheries sector. Those employed in the sector, generally the poor, can ill-afford such threats to their livelihoods. A strategy should be devised and implemented which will: establish a more effective protected area management and enforcement system for coastal communities; enhance the capacity of resource managers and users to be more resilient to climate change; and establish a sustainable finance mechanism for supporting protected areas and fish sanctuary management. The strategy should increase the involvement of the tourism sector in supporting community-based MPAs, as well as provide opportunities for alternative livelihoods and technologies for public education. This project should also help to enhance the performance of the large number of protected areas in the Dominican Republic as it aims to build knowledge and awareness of the strong links between livelihoods, natural resource health and climate change. xxxviii

40 Figure 14: Protected areas and coral reefs in Dominican Republic (Source: Wielgus, Cooper, Torres, & Burke, 2010) Despite the heavy reliance of the tourism sector on natural resources, tourism development also presents some of the major threats to coastal and marine resources in particular. In an effort to reduce the impact of each tourist on the already fragile environment, short videos encouraging visitors to be more conscious of their impacts on the fragile eco-systems of the country can be shown during in-bound international flights. The films will focus on positive actions that visitors can take to minimize negative impacts on the environment by decreasing energy and water consumption and wastage, and by taking necessary precautions during marine based recreation (diving, snorkelling, boating). In light of the challenges facing biodiversity and eco-systems, the Dominican Republic has demonstrated an ethos of conservation evidenced through the creation and continued strengthening of a legal and institutional framework that seeks to involve the relevant sectors such as health, water and tourism. Dominican environmental policies are based on the General Law on the Environment and Natural Resources (Law 64-00) and supported by the Constitution of the Republic which incorporates the environmental component into national policies. The legal framework and policy guidelines have been based on international agreements and the Dominican Republic has aimed to meet the objectives of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). Its policies on the protection of biodiversity take into consideration the human component of eco-system interactions, promote the sustainable use of natural resources, and are integrated into poverty reduction policies and national development. xxxix

41 Conclusion The Dominican Republic has a strong dependence on the tourism industry and the many natural assets that enable tourism to be successful. Terrestrial and marine eco-systems and water resources are already facing serious pressures from increasing development and poor land use practices and climate change is exacerbating these impacts. It is evident that the Government of the Dominican Republic is committed to adapting to climate change. Many policies and plans for action are in place but serious financial resource shortages along with limited technical capacities hinder the successful adaptation efforts across most government ministries and other stakeholder groups. Through the National Council for Climate Change and the Clean Development Mechanism, the Government of the Dominican Republic has made good progress in collecting data and implementing projects relating to climate change adaptation and mitigation. The country is also ahead of many other Caribbean nations in terms of their national assessments of climate change impacts, having already completed two National Communications to the UNFCCC. The CCCRA explored recent and future changes in climate in the Dominican Republic using a combination of observations and climate model projections. Despite the limitations that exist with regards to climate modelling and the attribution of present conditions to climate change, this information provides very useful indications of the changes in the characteristics of climate and impacts on socio-economic sectors. Consequently, decision makers should adopt a precautionary approach and ensure that measures are taken to increase the resilience of economies, businesses and communities to climate-related hazards. Including the Dominican Republic, the CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas has worked with 15 countries, a multitude of stakeholders and a wide variety of sectors across the Caribbean. As a result, in addition to the crucial national stakeholder sectoral analyses and practical strategy development the CCCRA provides robust and meaningful cross-regional comparisons in communities and sectors which lead to the identification of effective actions, skills and knowledge transfer, lessons learnt and the opportunities for increased future resilience and sustainability. xl

42 1. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), published in 2007, provides undisputable evidence that human activities are the major reason for the rise in greenhouse gas emissions and changes in the global climate system (IPCC, 2007a). Notably, climate change is on-going, with observational evidence from all continents and oceans that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases (IPCC, 2007b, p. 8). Observed and projected climate change will in turn affect socio-economic development (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009; Stern, 2006), with some 300,000 deaths per year currently being attributed to climate change (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009). Mitigation (to reduce the speed at which the global climate changes) as well as adaptation (to cope with changes that are inevitable) are thus of great importance (Parry, et al., 2009). The IPCC (IPCC, 2007a, p. 5) notes that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as it is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level. Climate change has started to affect many natural systems, including hydrological systems (increased runoff and earlier spring peak discharge, warming of lakes and rivers affecting thermal structure and water quality), terrestrial ecosystems (earlier spring events including leaf unfolding, bird migration and egg laying, biodiversity decline, and pole ward and upward shifts in the ranges of plants and animal species), as well as marine systems (rising water temperatures, changes in ice cover, salinity, acidification, oxygen levels and circulation, affecting shifts in the ranges and changes of algae, plankton and fish abundance). The IPCC (IPCC, 2007b) also notes that small islands are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including SLR and extreme events. Deterioration in coastal conditions is expected to affect fisheries and tourism, with SLR being expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards, threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of island communities (IPCC, 2007b, p. 15). Climate change is projected to reduce water resources in the Caribbean to a point where these become insufficient to meet demand, at least in periods with low rainfalls (IPCC, 2007b). Together, these changes are projected to severely affect socio-economic development and well being in the world (Stern, 2006), with the number of climate change related deaths expected to rise to 500,000 per year globally by 2020 (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009). However, not all regions are equally vulnerable to climate change. The Caribbean needs to be seen as one of the most vulnerable regions, due to their relative affectedness by climate change but also in terms of their capacity to adapt (Bueno, Herzfeld, Stanton, & Ackerman, 2008). This should be seen in the light of (Dulal, Shah, & Ahmad, 2009, p. 371) conclusion that: If the Caribbean countries fail to adapt, they are likely to take direct and substantial economic hits to their most important industry sectors such as tourism, which depends on the attractiveness of their natural coastal environments, and agriculture (including fisheries), which are highly climate sensitive sectors. By no incidence, these two sectors are the highest contributors to employment in the majority of these countries and significant losses or economic downturn attendant to inability to adapt to climate change will not increase unemployment but have potentially debilitating social and cultural consequences to communities. Climate change has, since the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change s 4 th Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007b), been high on the global political agenda. The most recent UN Conference of Parties (COP) in Mexico in December 2010 agreed that increases in temperature should be stabilised at a 1

43 maximum of 2 C by Notably, the 39 member states of the Alliance of Small Island States have called in a recent Declaration to the United Nations for a new climate change agreement that would ensure global warming to be kept at a maximum of 1.5 C; (AOSIS, 2009). So far, the European Union is the only region in the world with a legally binding target for emission reductions, imposed on the largest polluters. Some individual countries are taking action, such as the Australian Government s comprehensive long-term plan for tackling climate change and securing a clean energy future. The plan outlines the existing policies already underway to address climate change and cut carbon pollution and introduces several critical new initiatives and has four pillars: a carbon price; renewable energy; energy efficiency; and action on land. As a group, AOSIS member states account for less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions (UN-OHRLLS, 2009). However, according to a recent report of the IPCC the projected impacts of global climate change on the Caribbean region are expected to be devastating (IPCC, 2007c). An analysis of the vulnerability of CARICOM nations to SLR and associated storm surge by The CARIBSAVE Partnership in 2010 found that large areas of the Caribbean coast are highly susceptible to erosion, and beaches have experienced accelerated erosion in recent decades. It is estimated that with a 1 m SLR and a conservative estimate of associated erosion, 49% of the major tourism resorts in CARICOM countries would be damaged or destroyed. Erosion associated with a 2 m SLR (or a high estimate for a 1 m SLR), would result in an additional 106 resorts (or 60% of the region s coastal resorts) being at risk. Importantly, the beach assets so critical to tourism would be affected much earlier than the erosion damages to tourism infrastructure, affecting property values and the competitiveness of many destinations. Beach nesting sites for sea turtles were also at significant risk to beach erosion associated with SLR, with 51% significantly affected by erosion from 1 m SLR and 62% by erosion associated with 2 m SLR (Simpson M. C., et al., 2010). In real terms, the threats posed to the region s development prospects are severe and it is now accepted that adaptation will require a sizeable and sustained investment of resources. Over the last decade alone, damages from intense climatic conditions have cost the region in excess of half a trillion US dollars (CCCCC, 2009) Climate Change Impacts on Tourism Direct and indirect climatic impacts: The Caribbean s tourism resources, the primary one being the climate itself, are all climate sensitive. When beaches and other natural resources undergo negatives changes as a result of climate and meteorological events, this can affect the appeal of a destination particularly if these systems are slow to recover. Further, studies indicate that a shift of attractive climatic conditions for tourism towards higher latitudes and altitudes is very likely as a result of climate change. Projected increases in the frequency or magnitude of certain weather and climate extremes (e.g. heat waves, droughts, floods, tropical cyclones) as a result of projected climate change will affect the tourism industry through increased infrastructure damage, additional emergency preparedness requirements, higher operating expenses (e.g. insurance, backup water and power systems, and evacuations), and business interruptions (Simpson, Gossling, & Scott, 2008). In contrast to the varied impacts of a changed climate on tourism, the indirect effects of climate induced environmental change are likely to be largely negative. Impacts of mitigation policies on tourist mobility: Scientifically, there is general consensus that serious climate policy will be paramount in the transformation of tourism towards becoming climatically 2

44 sustainable, as significant technological innovation and behavioural change demand strong regulatory environments (e.g. Barr, Shaw, Coles, & Prillwitz, 2010; Bows, Anderson, & Footitt, 2009; Hickman & Banister, 2007; see also Giddens, 2009). As outlined by (Scott, Peeters, & Gössling, 2010), serious would include the endorsement of national and international mitigation policies by tourism stakeholders, a global closed emission trading scheme for aviation and shipping, the introduction of significant and constantly rising carbon taxes on fossil fuels, incentives for low carbon technologies and transport infrastructure, and, ultimately, the development of a vision for a fundamentally different global tourism economy. The Caribbean is likely to be a casualty of international mitigation policies that discourage long-haul travel. Pentelow and Scott (Pentelow & Scott, 2010) concluded that a combination of low carbon price and low oil price would have very little impact on arrivals growth to the Caribbean region through to 2020, with arrivals 1.28% to 1.84% lower than in the business as usual (BAU) scenario (the range attributed to the price elasticities chosen). The impact of a high carbon price and high oil price scenario was more substantive, with arrivals 2.97% to 4.29% lower than the 2020 BAU scenario depending on the price elasticity value used. The study concluded: It is important to emphasise that the number of arrivals to the region would still be projected to grow from between 19.7 million to 19.9 million in 2010 to a range of 30.1 million to 31.0 million in 2020 (Pentelow & Scott, 2010). Indirect societal change impacts: Climate change is believed to pose a risk to future economic growth of some nations, particularly for those where losses and damages are comparable to a country s GDP. This could reduce the means and incentive for long haul travel and have negative implications for anticipated future growth in this sector in the Caribbean. Climate change associated security risks have been identified in a number of regions where tourism is highly important to local-national economies (e.g. Stern, 2006; Barnett & Adger, 2007; German Advisory Council, 2007; Simpson, Gossling, & Scott, 2008). International tourists are averse to political instability and social unrest, and negative tourism demand repercussions for climate change security hotspots, many of which are believed to be in developing nations, are already evident (Hall, Waugh, Haine, Robbins, & Khatiwala, 2004). 3

45 2. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 2.1. Geography and climate The Dominican Republic is located on the island of Hispaniola, and occupies approximately two thirds of the land mass, while Haiti occupies the western third (Arce, 2009). The Dominican Republic is the second largest country in the Caribbean region (after Cuba), both in terms of area and population. The land area covers 48,380 km 2 and 350 km 2 of water. Originally, the island of Hispaniola had more than 60% moist forest cover. The valleys, plateaus, slopes and foothills of the Dominican Republic, with heights up to 2,100 m, are covered by a moist forest. The southern coast of the country is the only area lacking this forest, as a result of deforestation and urbanisation. Four large mountain ranges cross the island, covering nearly half of the land area (MOT, 2010). The Dominican Republic boasts the highest point in the Caribbean, Pico Duarte at 3,175 m located in the Cordillera Central mountain range; and the lowest point in the Caribbean, Lake Enriquillo at 46 m below sea level (MOT, 2010). Due to its location and large land area, the Dominican Republic has a variety of landscapes which include towering mountains, rain forests, fertile valley, deserts and coastal beaches (DR1, 2010). It also has several offshore islands and cays, as well as lakes and rivers. The capital of the Dominican Republic, Santo Domingo, is known as the first city founded in the Americas. The actual original city is called the Colonial City and now resides within Santo Domingo, and also includes the first hospital, university and cathedral of the Americas (MOT, 2010). Santo Domingo currently has a population of approximately 2.5 million people and is also the host to the Caribbean s only underground subway system. Due to its proximity to the Mona Passage, the Dominican Republic enjoys abundant marine life and fishing activities. It has about 1,600 km of coastline of which 300 are prime sand beaches one of the country s biggest tourist attractions (DR1, 2010). The most significant river is the Yaque del Norte which stretches 296 km and has a basin area of 7,044 km 2. This is one of the four major rivers that drain the Dominican Republic. The other rivers that dot the Dominican Republic are either short or intermittent. There are several small lakes; the only one of any considerable size is the Laguna del Rincon in the Enriquillo Basin (Hispaniola.com, 2010). The other major lake is the Lago Enriquillo which covers about 265 km 2, and is also the only saline lake in the Caribbean (Haggerty, 1989). The island of Hispaniola is of volcanic origin, and has several important mining deposits. There are currently three different companies undertaking mining extraction in the Dominican Republic. The main mining products are Nickel, Bauxite, Copper, Gold and Silver (FCO, 2011). The country is also rich in biodiversity, due to its varied landscapes and location and there are several endemic species, such as the rhinoceros iguana. The Dominican Republic also has the only known species of saline water crocodile which resides in Lago Enriquillo. Though there has been degradation of the environment, particularly the removal of the moist forest cover, a diverse insular biota still remains belonging to a large number of taxa. Approximately 68% of the Dominican Republic s land is used for agriculture (51% pasture, 17% cultivation, and 28% forestry) (World Bank, 2009). The main cash crops were sugar, coffee, cocoa, tobacco and bananas. Recently the agricultural sector has moved away from these crops as the service industry became more important. However, they have increased production and exports of organic crops such as bananas, pineapples, citrus, melons, and mangoes (FCO, 2011). 4

46 The Dominican Republic has a tropical maritime climate year round. The seasonal mean temperatures in the cooler months from December to February range from 20 to 25 C. In the warmer season from June to November, temperatures range from 25 to 27 C. The wet season usually occurs from May to November and precipitation across most regions averages 100 to 200 mm per month, though this can vary in the mountains (C. McSweeney, M. New, & G. Lizcano, 2009). Lower temperatures often occur in the mountains, where temperatures have been known to drop to 0 C; while higher temperatures are often recorded inland (MOT, 2010). Annual variability in the climate is strongly influenced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO years will bring warmer and drier than average conditions between June and August, while a La Niña year brings colder and wetter conditions than on average. Two types of winds influence the Dominican Republic. The trade winds have a strong influence on the overall climate of the Dominican Republic, and smaller local perturbations, or breezes are specific to certain regions (UNDP, 2009). These breezes are controlled by changes in local topography being stronger in the mountainous regions, and softer near coastal areas. The hurricane season goes from June through to November but August and September usually consist of the peak season. Heavy rainfall is often associated with tropical storms and hurricanes during this period and makes up a significant portion of the total wet season rainfall (C. McSweeney, M. New, & G. Lizcano, 2009). Major hurricanes do not often hit the Dominican Republic but they can be devastating when they do and will often strike on the southern or eastern coast. The following is a list of several large hurricanes that have made landfall in the Dominican Republic: Jeanne (Category 1) in 2004 Georges (Category 3) in 1998 Hortense (Category 3-1) in 1996 Gilbert (Category 3) in 1988 Emily (Category 4-2) in 1987 David (Category 5-4) in 1979 Source: (DR1, 2010) 2.2. Socio-economic profile The Dominican Republic has been described as a middle income developing country (FCO, 2011). It is primarily dependent on tourism and a growing service sector, as well as agriculture and trades. The population in 2010 was 9,884,371, of which 4,935,282 were men and 4,949,089 were women (ONE, 2010). Approximately 60% of the population lives in urban areas (UNDP, 2009), the biggest concentration of which is found in the capital city of Santo Domingo with a population of 2,159,785 (ONE, 2010). The multi-racial population is predominantly a mix of European and African (as well as some Taíno), which makes up 73% of the total population (FCO, 2011). The remainder of the population is European (16%) and African (11%) (FCO, 2011). Table shows the growth in GDP for the Dominican Republic. 5

47 Table 2.2.1: Gross Domestic Product for Dominican Republic YEAR (Rebased) Gross Domestic Product Production Approach In Constant Prices, Millions of dollars at constant 2000 prices Source: (ECLAC, 2010a) The key sectors have changed recently, and the country is now primarily dependent on tourism and the service sector, though agriculture and trade are still important (FCO, 2011). This can be seen from Table which provides a breakdown of the sectors contribution to GDP. For example, from 2001 the contribution of the tourism sector (which is represented by Hotels, Bars and Restaurants) has progressively grown from RD $36, million to RD $175, million by See also Figure for the percentage contribution to GDP of some of the key industries. While the agriculture sector remains the most important sector in terms of domestic consumption, the service sector has taken over as the leading employer. The composition of the work force is as follows: Services and Government 31%; Agriculture 28%; Industry 12%; Unemployment 14.9% (FCO, 2011). Table 2.2.2: Sector GDP in Current Prices (RD $ 0,000) Sector Agriculture Livestock, Forestry & Fisheries Mining & Quarrying Manufacturing Sugar Production Petroleum Textiles and Clothing Construction Energy and Water Hotels, Bars & Restaurants Transport & Storage Communications Financial Intermediation Real Estate & Housing

48 % Contribution Agriculture Mining and Quarrying Construction Hotels, Bars & Restaurants Real Estate & Housing Livestock, Forestry & Fisheries Manufacturing Energy and Water Financial Intermediation Figure 2.2.1: Percentage contribution to GDP by sector (Source: ONE, 2011) The Dominican Republic s economy has experienced large changes in the last decades, as a result of global and internal changes. Several events had an impact on its economy, such as the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States which negatively affected the global economy. During the 2003 to 2004 period, the economy suffered a slowdown caused by a banking crisis which brought on the collapse of one of the largest banks in the country (UNDP, 2009). In addition, following the catastrophic earthquake on January 12, 2010, the Dominican Republic has experienced an even greater influx of Haitian immigrants. With an already high unemployment rate, and an increased incidence of cholera, tensions between the two groups have become further strained (The New York Times, 2011). It is unknown how many Haitians and persons of Haitian decent are living and working in the Dominican Republic (many of which do not have valid visas or work permits). However, in 2001 the number was estimated to be around 1 million. Traditionally, Haitians sought employment on sugar plantations, in agriculture or other manual labour (posts that were generally undesirable by Dominicans); but with the Dominican Government s transition to tourism, manufacturing and other sectors, new job opportunities have opened up (Ferguson, 2003). For employers, Haitians represent cheap, non-unionised and exploitable labour and as such have proven to be highly competitive on the job market, especially in areas such as construction. With mounting social unrest the International Organisation for Migration has stepped in to offer Haitians US $50 a piece, as well as assistance with relocation, if they agree to willingly go home (Ferguson, 2003; The New York Times, 2011). However, recent changes in trade policies, particularly regarding the DR CAFTA Agreement, will create trade incentives for the Dominican Republic. The Agreement, which was also signed with the United States and five other Central American countries, is expected to create new economic opportunities by eliminating tariffs, opening markets, reducing trade barriers and promoting transparency (Executive Office of the President, n.d.). In addition, as of January 2009, it was reported by the Foreign and Commonwealth 7

49 Office (FCO) that all goods and services originating from within the CARIFORUM countries (CARICOM plus Dominican Republic) receive duty free and quota free access in Europe (FCO, 2011) Importance of tourism to the national economy Caribbean tourism is based on the natural environment, and the region s countries are known primarily as beach destinations. The tourism product therefore depends on favourable weather conditions as well as on an attractive and healthy natural environment, particularly in the coastal zone. Both of these are threatened by climate change. The Caribbean is the most tourism dependent region in the world with few options to develop alternative economic sectors and is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to the impacts of climate change including SLR, coastal erosion, flooding, biodiversity loss and impacts on human health. From around the 1980s tourism gained prominence in the Dominican Republic, with the Government directly supporting its early development by providing incentives to the private sector to increase their involvement. Over the past few decades, increased interest by international markets have resulted in the sector s rapid growth and a product that is largely based on all inclusive resorts (in 1972 there were approximately 1,600 hotels rooms and by 2008 there were over 60,000) (Bentley, 2005; GSTA, 2008). Many new areas are being developed yearly. Currently there is a development boom on the eastern coast which includes Punta Cana and Bavaro, as well as on the southeast at Bayahibe, and Puerto Plata and Samana in the north (FCO, 2011; MOT, 2010). In 2010, almost 4 million tourists visited the Dominican Republic, as well as 264 cruise ships (FCO, 2011). Currently, tourism accounts for more than US $4,300 million in annual earnings. This makes tourism one of the fastest growing export sectors, along with organic products and telecommunications (FCO, 2011). It has been projected that the direct contribution of travel and tourism will amount to 5.5% of total GDP in 2011; and is expected to increase by 3.6% by 2021 (WTTC, 2007). For the past 10 years, the main market to the Dominican Republic has been the United States. In 2007, the United States made up 33% of all tourists to the Dominican Republic, while Europe (excluding Italy, United Kingdom, and Germany) was close behind with 29% of all tourists to the Dominican Republic, and Canada placing as the third highest with 17% (CTO, 2011). By 2009, the trend had changed slightly; the United States was still the top market with 29% of all tourist to the Dominican Republic, but this was now followed by the rest of the world (excluding Italy, United Kingdom, Germany, other Europe and Canada) at 24%, followed by other European countries at 19% and Canada at 16% (CTO, 2011). Table and Figure show that stopover visitors are considerably higher than cruise passengers, and that arrivals and visitor spending have been subject to fluctuations over the past decade. 8

50 Table 2.3.1: Visitor Arrivals to Dominican Republic and Tourist expenditure (US $ millions) Year Stopovers Cruise Ship All Visitors Passengers Expenditures ,777, ,220 $2, ,793, ,692 $2, ,268, ,993 $ ,450, ,321 $2, ,690, ,805 $3, ,965, ,489 $3, ,979, ,878 $3, ,979, ,206 $3, ,992, ,729 $3, ,124, ,539 $3, Stopovers (000s) Cruise Ship Passengers (000s) Expenditures Figure 2.3.1: Tourist arrivals and expenditure 9 Source: (CTO, 2011; ONE, 2011) A figure for direct employment contributions from tourism has been projected for 2011 by the World Travel and Tourism Council as supporting 210,000 jobs directly (or 5.1% of total employment) (WTTC, 2007). Similarly, the total contribution of tourism to employment, including jobs indirectly supported by the industry, was projected for 2011 at 679,000 jobs (or 16.3% of total employment). Yet it should be noted that the success of the tourism industry have been tempered by many of the challenges associated with rapid growth (Bentley, 2005; GSTA, 2008). Moreover, it has become increasingly apparent that changing demographic trends in countries of origin, namely the United States, Canada and Europe, may lead to a decrease in the demand for sun and sand holidays. While in the coming years there should still be enough visitors to fill the resorts, with aging populations (the average age of international tourists is approaching 50 years), and younger travellers seeking alternative forms of tourism, it is imperative that strategies be developed to ensure the sector s sustainability (Bentley, 2005, pp. III-3).

51 From 2000, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has been engaged in providing funding assistance for the competitive development of several of the country s sectors in which the tourism industry is included (CDCT, 2009). The USAID Dominican Sustainable Tourism Alliance (USAID-DSTA) was founded to better equip and strengthen local small, medium sized and community based tourism enterprises and existing tourism entities so they would be able to independently sustain their efforts once external funding had been removed. Of particular interest to the USAID-DSTA is the transformation of the Dominican Republic s natural, historical, and cultural resources into a sustainable tourism product that effectively distributes benefits, including poverty alleviation, economic expansion, and the conservation of biological diversity. Recognising that about 13% of visitors to the Dominican Republic visit the country s protected areas (most visitations occur in only a handful of parks at extremely high concentrations), the USAID-DSTA believes that an excellent opportunity exists for the country to increase both the quantity and quality of visitor services in and around the parks (USAID, n.d.). To achieve their goals, the USAID-DSTA will, among other things, seek to build on, expand and consolidate the following principal areas: Moving the tourism clusters developed under the USAID Competitiveness and Policy Program (Romana-Bayahibe, La Vega, Barahona, Puerto Plata, Altagracia, and Samaná) towards selfsufficiency and sustainability; Strengthening municipal environmental management capabilities and stimulating small, medium, and community-based tourism efforts; and Improving protected area management initiatives in selected locations originally started under the Parks-in-Peril Programme (USAID, n.d.). Stemming from the USAID-DSTA project, the Dominican Tourism Competitiveness Consortium (CDCT) was formed as the Dominican organisation that would continue to help institutionalise the USAID-DSTA support of tourism clusters. Some of their functions include: Providing direct technical assistance to clusters that are specialised in environmental protection components; Actively participating in policy and regulatory reforms; Creating partnerships with public and private organisations to coordinate and strengthen joint efforts; and Serving as a spokesperson and channel for their Cluster members (CDCT, 2009). In 2008, a national conference "Todos Bajo un Mismo Techo - Por un Turismo Dominicano más Competitivo y Sostenible" (Everyone under one roof - for more competitive and sustainable Dominican Tourism) was held in Santiago. At this meeting, the 140 participating organisations reviewed past and current actions for sustainable tourism in the Dominican Republic, as well as future plans of action (PPAF, n.d.). While to date, these tourism initiatives have not been directly linked to climate change, elements of the Dominican Republic s sustainable tourism programmes (e.g. preservation of biodiversity and engagement in alternative forms of tourism such as cultural and heritage tourism) could contribute to building resilience and lessening the dependency on coastal tourism. 10

52 3. CLIMATE MODELLING 3.1. Introduction to Climate Modelling Results This summary of climate change information for the Dominican Republic is derived from a combination of recently observed climate data sources, and climate model projections of future scenarios using both a General Circulation Model (GCM) ensemble of 15 models and the Regional Climate Model (RCM), PRECIS. General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide global simulations of future climate under prescribed greenhouse gas scenarios. These models are proficient in simulating the large scale circulation patterns and seasonal cycles of the world s climate, but operate at coarse spatial resolution (grid boxes are typically around 2.5 degrees latitude and longitude). This limited resolution hinders the ability for the model to represent the finer scale characteristics of a region s topography, and many of the key climatic processes which determine its weather and climate characteristics. Over the Caribbean, this presents significant problems as most of the small islands are too small to feature as a land mass at GCM resolution. Regional Climate Models (RCMS) are often nested in GCMs to simulate the climate at a finer spatial scale over a small region of the world, acting to downscale the GCM projections and provide a better physical representation of the local climate of that region. RCMs enable the investigation of climate changes at a sub-gcm-grid scale, as such changes in the dynamic climate processes at a community scale or tourist destination can be projected. For each of a number of climate variables (average temperature, average rainfall, average wind speed, relative humidity, sea surface temperature, sunshine hours, extreme temperatures, and extreme rainfalls) the results of GCM multi-model projections under three emissions scenarios at the country scale, and RCM simulations from single model driven by two different GCMs for a single emissions scenario at the destination scale, are examined. Where available, observational data sources are drawn upon to identify changes that are already occurring in the climates at both the country and destination scale. In this study, RCM simulations from PRECIS, driven by two different GCMs (ECHAM4 and HadCM3) are used to look at projected climate for each country and at the community level. Combining the results of GCM and RCM experiments allows the use of high resolution RCM projections in the context of the uncertainty margins that the 15-model GCM ensemble provides. The following projections are based on the IPCC standard marker scenarios A2 (a high emissions scenario), A1B (a medium high scenario, where emissions increase rapidly in the earlier part of the century but then plateau in the second half) and B1 (a low emissions scenario). Climate projections are examined under all three scenarios from the multi-model GCM ensemble, but at present, results from the regional models are only available for scenario A2. Table outlines the time line on which various temperature thresholds are projected to be reached under the various scenarios according to the IPCC. 11

53 Table 3.1.1: Earliest and latest years respectively at which the threshold temperatures are exceeded in the 41 projections* SRES Scenario 1.5C Threshold 2.0C Threshold 2.5C Threshold Earliest Latest Earliest Latest Earliest Latest A1B Later than 2100 A B Later than Later than 2100 *NB: In some cases the threshold is not reached prior to 2100, the latest date for which the projections are available. The potential changes in hurricane and tropical storm frequency and intensity, SLR, and storm surge incidence are also examined for the Caribbean region. For these variables, existing material in the literature is examined in order to assess the potential changes affecting the tourist destinations Temperature Observations from the gridded temperature datasets indicate that mean annual temperatures over The Dominican Republic have increased at an average rate of 0.1 C per decade over the period The observed increases have been more rapid in the seasons JJA and SON at the rate of 0.13 C per decade. General Circulation Model (GCM) projections from a 15-model ensemble indicate that The Dominican Republic can be expected to warm by 0.6 C to 1.9 C by the 2050s and 0.9 C to 3.0 C by the 2080s, relative to the mean. The range of projections across the 15 models for any one emissions scenario spans around C. Projected mean temperature increase is similar throughout the year. Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections indicate much more rapid increases in temperatures over The Dominican Republic compared to the GCM ensemble median projections for the A2 scenario. RCM projections indicate increases of 3.4 C and 3.1 C in mean annual temperatures by the 2080s when driven by the ECHAM4 and HadCM3 respectively. The GCM ensemble projections for the same period range from 1.9 to 3.0 C. The improved spatial resolution in the RCM allows the land mass of the larger Caribbean islands to be represented, whilst the region is represented only by ocean grid boxes at GCM resolution. Land surfaces warm more rapidly than ocean due to their lower capacity to absorb heat energy, and we therefore see more rapid warming over The Dominican Republic in RCM projections than in GCMs. 12

54 Table 3.2.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature for Dominican Republic. Observed Mean Observed Trend Dominican Republic: Country Scale Changes in Temperature Projected changes by the 2020s Projected changes by the 2050s Projected changes by the 2080s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max ( C) (change in C per decade) Change in C Change in C Change in C A Annual * A1B B A DJF A1B B A MAM A1B B A JJA * A1B B A SON * A1B B Table 3.2.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Dominican Republic under the A2 scenario. Projected changes by the 2080s SRES A2 Min Median Max Change in C GCM Ensemble Range Annual RCM (ECHAM4) 3.4 RCM (HadCM3) 3.1 GCM Ensemble Range DJF RCM (ECHAM4) 3.3 RCM (HadCM3) 3.1 GCM Ensemble Range MAM RCM (ECHAM4) 3.2 RCM (HadCM3) 3.2 GCM Ensemble Range JJA RCM (ECHAM4) 3.5 RCM (HadCM3) 3.2 GCM Ensemble Range SON RCM (ECHAM4) 3.7 RCM (HadCM3)

55 3.3. Precipitation Gridded observations of rainfall over The Dominican Republic do not indicate any significance of consistent trends over the period Long-term trends are difficult to identify due to the large inter-annual variability in rainfall in The Dominican Republic. GCM projections of future rainfall for The Dominican Republic span both overall increases and decreases with wide variations but tend towards decreases in more models. Projected rainfall changes in annual rainfall range from -42 to +7 mm per month (-69% to +19%) by the 2080s across the three emissions scenarios. The overall decreases in annual rainfall projected by GCMs occur largely through decreased JJA and SON rainfall but these changes are less consistent between models. RCM projections of rainfall for The Dominican Republic are strongly influenced by the driving GCM providing boundary conditions. Driven by ECHAM4, RCM rainfall projections indicate changes of similar magnitudes but opposite signs in DJF and JJA resulting in no change in total annual rainfall. When driven by HadCM3, RCM projects large proportional decreases in rainfall in MAM (24%), JJA (51%) and SON (40%) resulting in a large decrease in total annual rainfall (-27 mm or -30%) by the 2080s under the A2 scenario. The RCM projections, driven by HadCM3, lie toward the lower end of changes projected by the GCM ensemble. Table 3.3.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation for Dominican Republic. Observed Mean (mm per month) Observed Trend (change in mm per decade) Dominican Republic: Country Scale Changes in Precipitation Projected changes by the 2020s Projected changes by the 2050s Projected changes by the 2080s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max Change in mm per month Change in mm per month Change in mm per month A Annual A1B B A DJF A1B B A MAM A1B B A JJA A1B B A SON A1B B

56 Annua l Table 3.3.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Dominican Republic under the A2 scenario. Projected changes by the 2080s SRES A2 Min Median Max Change in mm GCM Ensemble Range Annual RCM (ECHAM4) 0 RCM (HadCM3) -27 GCM Ensemble Range DJF RCM (ECHAM4) 7 RCM (HadCM3) -4 GCM Ensemble Range MAM RCM (ECHAM4) 0 RCM (HadCM3) -18 GCM Ensemble Range JJA RCM (ECHAM4) -9 RCM (HadCM3) -44 GCM Ensemble Range SON RCM (ECHAM4) 0 RCM (HadCM3) -40 Table 3.3.3: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation (%) for Dominican Republic. Observed Mean (mm per month) Observed Trend (change in % per decade) Dominican Republic: Country Scale Changes in Precipitation Projected changes by the 2020s Projected changes by the 2050s Projected changes by the 2080s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max % Change % Change % Change A A1B B A DJF A1B B A MAM A1B B A JJA A1B B A SON A1B B

57 Table 3.3.4: GCM and RCM projected changes in Dominican Republic under the A2 scenario. Projected changes by the 2080s SRES A2 Min Median Max % Change GCM Ensemble Range Annual RCM (ECHAM4) 0 RCM (HadCM3) -30 GCM Ensemble Range DJF RCM (ECHAM4) 25 RCM (HadCM3) -3 GCM Ensemble Range MAM RCM (ECHAM4) 0 RCM (HadCM3) -24 GCM Ensemble Range JJA RCM (ECHAM4) -29 RCM (HadCM3) -51 GCM Ensemble Range SON RCM (ECHAM4) 4 RCM (HadCM3) Wind Speed Observed mean wind speeds from the ICOADS mean monthly marine surface wind dataset demonstrate increasing trends around The Dominican Republic in all seasons over the period The increasing trend in mean annual wind speed is 0.25 ms -1 per decade. It is greatest in DJF at the rate of 0.41 ms -1 per decade. Mean wind speeds over The Dominican Republic generally show a very small increase in GCM projections. Projected changes in annual average wind speed range between -0.2 and +0.6 ms -1 by the 2080s across the three emission scenarios. Both increases and decreases are seen in all seasons across the 15-model ensemble. RCM projections based on two driving GCMs lie within the range of changes indicated by the GCM ensemble. Driven by ECHAM4, the RCM indicates a very small change in wind speeds in all seasons under the A2 scenario. Driven by HadCM3, the RCM projects increases in wind speeds in JJA (+0.7 ms -1 ) and SON (+0.3 ms -1 ) by the 2080s. 16

58 Annua l Table 3.4.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in wind speed for Dominican Republic. Observed Mean (ms -1 ) Observed Trend (change in ms -1 per decade) Dominican Republic: Country Scale Changes in Wind Speed Projected changes by the 2020s Projected changes by the 2050s Projected changes by the 2080s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max Change in ms -1 Change in ms -1 Change in ms -1 A * A1B B A DJF * A1B B A MAM * A1B B A JJA * A1B B A SON * A1B B Table 3.4.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Dominican Republic under the A2 scenario. Projected changes by the 2080s SRES A2 Min Median Max Change in ms -1 GCM Ensemble Range Annual RCM (ECHAM4) 0 RCM (HadCM3) 0.2 GCM Ensemble Range DJF RCM (ECHAM4) -0.2 RCM (HadCM3) -0.3 GCM Ensemble Range MAM RCM (ECHAM4) 0.1 RCM (HadCM3) 0.2 GCM Ensemble Range JJA RCM (ECHAM4) 0.2 RCM (HadCM3) 0.7 GCM Ensemble Range SON RCM (ECHAM4) 0 RCM (HadCM3)

59 3.5. Relative Humidity Observations from the HadCRUH show a statistically significant decreasing trend in relative humidity in SON at the rate of 0.34% per decade over the period in The Dominican Republic. Relative humidity data has not been made available for all models in the 15-model ensemble. From the available data, the GCM projections indicate a small change in RH in all seasons. The ensemble sub-sample range does span both increases and decreases in RH in all seasons. RCM projections generally indicate decreases in RH over The Dominican Republic in all seasons, whereas the GCM ensemble suggests an increase by the 2080s under the A2 scenario. In particular, decreases in RH are larger in the RCM simulation driven by HadCM3. The largest decrease in RH projected by the RCM is 4.5% in JJA. The representation of the land surface in climate models becomes very important when considering changes in relative humidity under a warmer climate. This factor is reflected when GCMs and RCMs projections are compared. Table 3.5.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in relative humidity for Dominican Republic. Observed Mean Dominican Republic: Country Scale Changes in Relative Humidity Observed Trend Projected changes by the 2020s Projected changes by the 2050s Projected changes by the 2080s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max (%) (change in % per decade) Change in % Change in % Change in % A Annual A1B B A DJF A1B B A MAM A1B B A JJA A1B B A SON * A1B B

60 Table 3.5.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Dominican Republic under the A2 scenario. Projected changes by the 2080s SRES A2 Min Median Max Change in % GCM Ensemble Range 1.1 Annual RCM (ECHAM4) -0.4 RCM (HadCM3) -2.8 GCM Ensemble Range 1.2 DJF RCM (ECHAM4) 0.2 RCM (HadCM3) -1 GCM Ensemble Range 1 MAM RCM (ECHAM4) 0 RCM (HadCM3) -2.2 GCM Ensemble Range 1.3 JJA RCM (ECHAM4) -1.3 RCM (HadCM3) -4.5 GCM Ensemble Range 0.9 SON RCM (ECHAM4) -0.6 RCM (HadCM3) Sunshine Hours The number of sunshine hours per day are calculated by applying the average clear-sky fraction from cloud observations to the number of daylight hours for the latitude of the location and the time of the year. The observed number of sunshine hours, based on ISCCP satellite observations of cloud coverage, indicates statistically significant increases in sunshine hours only in JJA by 0.73 hours per decade over the period The number of sunshine hours is projected by most models to increase slightly into the 21 st Century in The Dominican Republic in the wet season, reflecting reduction in average cloud fractions. The GCM model ensemble, however, spans both increases and decreases in all seasons and across emissions scenarios. The changes in annual average sunshine hours span -0.3 to +0.8 hours per day by the 2080s under scenario A2. The median increases projected by the GCM ensemble are large in JJA with changes spanning -0.8 to +1.6 hours per day. Comparison between GCM and RCM projections of sunshine hours for The Dominican Republic shows that the RCM projections are higher than median changes projected by the GCM ensemble. RCM projections indicate increases of roughly an hour per day in mean annual sunshine hours by the 2080s. Both RCM simulations indicate large increases in sunshine hours in JJA ( hours per day) and in SON ( hours per day), which is in agreement with the GCM projections. 19

61 Table 3.6.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sunshine hours for Dominican Republic. Observed Mean (hrs) Dominican Republic: Country Scale Changes in Sunshine Hours Observed Trend (change in hrs per decade) Projected changes by the 2020s Projected changes by the 2050s Projected changes by the 2080s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max Change in hrs Change in hrs Change in hrs A Annual A1B B A DJF A1B B A MAM A1B B A JJA * A1B B A SON A1B B Table 3.6.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Dominican Republic under the A2 scenario. Projected changes by the 2080s SRES A2 Min Median Max Change in hours GCM Ensemble Range Annual RCM (ECHAM4) 0.4 RCM (HadCM3) 1.4 GCM Ensemble Range DJF RCM (ECHAM4) 0.3 RCM (HadCM3) 1 GCM Ensemble Range MAM RCM (ECHAM4) 0.2 RCM (HadCM3) 0.8 GCM Ensemble Range JJA RCM (ECHAM4) 0.8 RCM (HadCM3) 2.1 GCM Ensemble Range SON RCM (ECHAM4) 0.5 RCM (HadCM3)

62 3.7. Sea Surface Temperatures The HadSST2 gridded dataset does not indicate a statistically significant change in mean annual sea surface temperatures around The Dominican Republic. However, statistically significant increasing trends are observed in JJA (0.08 C per decade) and in SON (0.06 C per decade) in the waters surrounding The Dominican Republic. GCM projections indicate increases in sea surface temperatures throughout the year. Projected increases range between +0.7 C and +2.7 C by the 2080s across all three emissions scenarios. The range of projections under any single emissions scenario spans roughly around 1.0 to 1.5 C. Table 3.7.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sea surface temperature for Dominican Republic. Observed Mean ( C) Dominican Republic: Country Scale Changes in Sea Surface Temperature Observed Trend (change in C per decade) Projected changes by the 2020s Projected changes by the 2050s Projected changes by the 2080s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max Change in C Change in C Change in C A Annual A1B B A DJF A1B B A MAM A1B B A JJA * A1B B A SON * A1B B Temperature Extremes Extreme hot and cold values are defined by the temperatures that are exceeded on 10% of days in the current climate or reference period. This allows us to define hot and cold relative to the particular climate of a specific region or season, and determine relative changes in extreme events. The frequency of 'hot' days and 'hot' nights has increased significantly since 1960 in all seasons except DJF in The Dominican Republic. The frequency of mean annual 'hot' days has increased at the rate of 4.04% hot days per decade with the strongest increase in JJA (by 5.03% of hot days per decade) between 1960 and The frequency of mean annual 'hot' nights has increased by 3.06% of hot nights per decade with the strongest increase in SON (by 5.45% of hot nights per decade). GCM projections indicate increases in the frequency of hot days by 33-95% of days and hot nights by 38-94% of nights annually by the 2080s. The rate of increase varies substantially between models for each scenario but is very similar throughout the year. 21

63 The frequency of mean annual cold days has decreased at the rate of 1.92% cold days per decade since 1960 with a strong decrease in JJA by 3.42% of cold days per decade. The frequency of mean annual cold nights has decreased at the rate of 2% cold nights per decade since Cold days and nights diminish in frequency, and do not occur at all in most models by the 2080s. Table 3.8.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature extremes for Dominican Republic. Observed Mean % Frequency Dominican Republic: Country scale changes in Temperature Extremes Observed Trend Change in frequency per decade Projected changes by the 2020s Projected changes by the 2050s Projected changes by the 2080s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max 22 Future % frequency Future % frequency Frequency of Hot Days (TX90p) A Annual * A1B B A DJF A1B B A MAM * A1B B A JJA * A1B B A SON * A1B A Frequency of Hot Nights (TN90p) A Annual * A1B B A DJF * A1B B A MAM * A1B B A JJA * A1B B A SON * A1B B Frequency of Cold Days (TX10p) A Annual * A1B B A DJF A1B B

64 Observed Mean Dominican Republic: Country scale changes in Temperature Extremes Observed Trend Projected changes by the 2020s Projected changes by the 2050s Projected changes by the 2080s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max A MAM * A1B B A JJA * A1B B A SON * A1B B Frequency of Cold Nights (TN10p) A Annual * A1B B A DJF * A1B B A MAM * A1B B A JJA A1B B A SON * A1B B Rainfall Extremes Changes in rainfall extremes, based on 1- and 5-day rainfall totals, as well as exceedance of a relative threshold for heavy rain, were examined. Heavy rain is determined by the daily rainfall totals that are exceeded on 5% of wet days in the current climate or reference period, relative to the particular climate of a specific region or season. There is insufficient daily observational data to identify trends in rainfall extremes in The Dominican Republic. GCM projections of rainfall extremes are mixed across the ensemble of models, ranging from both decreases and increases of all measures of extreme rainfall. The proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy events decreases in most model projections, changing by 22% to +9% by the 2080s. Maximum 1-day rainfall shows very small or no change by the 2080s, but maximum 5 day rainfalls tend to decrease in model projections ranging from 26 to +28 mm annually by the 2080s with changes being more variable in JJA (-40 to +16 mm) and SON (-22 to +26 mm). 23

65 Table 3.9.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in rainfall extremes for Dominican Republic. Dominican Republic: Country scale changes in Rainfall Extremes Observed Mean Observed Trend Projected changes by the 2020s Projected changes by the 2050s Projected changes by the 2080s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max % Change in % per decade % total rainfall falling in Heavy Events (R95pct) Change in % Change in % A Annual A1B B A DJF A1B B A MAM A1B B A JJA A1B B A SON A1B B Maximum 1-day rainfall (RX1day) mm Change in mm per decade Change in mm Change in mm A Annual A1B B A DJF A1B B A MAM A1B B A JJA A1B B A SON A1B B

66 Dominican Republic: Country scale changes in Rainfall Extremes Observed Mean Observed Trend Projected changes by the 2020s Projected changes by the 2050s Projected changes by the 2080s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max mm Change in mm per decade Maximum 5-day Rainfall (RX5day) Change in mm Change in mm A Annual A1B B A DJF A1B B A MAM A1B B A JJA A1B B A SON A1B B Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Historical and future changes in tropical storm and hurricane activity have been a topic of heated debate in the climate science community. Drawing robust conclusions with regards to changes in climate extremes is continually hampered by issues of data quality in our observations, the difficulties in separating natural variability from long term trends and the limitations imposed by spatial resolution of climate models. Tropical storms and hurricanes form from pre-existing weather disturbances where sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exceed 26 C. Whilst SSTs are a key factor in determining the formation, development and intensity of tropical storms, a number of other factors are also critical, such as subsidence, wind shear and static stability. This means that whilst observed and projected increases in SSTs under a warmer climate potentially expand the regions and periods of time when tropical storms may form, the critical conditions for storm formation may not necessarily be met (e.g. Veccchi and Soden, 2007; Trenberth et al., 2007), and increasing SSTs may not necessarily be accompanied by an increase in the frequency of tropical storm incidences. Several analyses of global (e.g. Webster et al., 2005) and more specifically North Atlantic (e.g. Holland and Webster, 2007; Kossin et al., 2007; Elsner et al., 2008) hurricanes have indicated increases in the observed record of tropical storms over the last 30 years. It is not yet certain to what degree this trend arises as part of a long term climate change signal or shorter term inter-decadal variability. The available longer term records are riddled with in homogeneities (inconsistencies in recording methods through time) - most significantly, the advent of satellite observations, before which storms were only recorded when making 25

67 landfall or observed by ships (Kossin et al., 2007). Recently, a longer term study of variations in hurricane frequency in the last 1,500 years based on proxy reconstructions from regional sedimentary evidence indicate recent levels of Atlantic hurricane activity are anomalously high relative to those of the last one and a half millennia (Mann et al., 2009). Climate models are still relatively primitive with respect to representing tropical storms, and this restricts our ability to determine future changes in frequency or intensity. We can analyse the changes in background conditions that are conducive to storm formation (boundary conditions) (e.g. Tapiador, 2008), or apply them to embedded high resolution models which can credibly simulate tropical storms (e.g. Knutson and Tuleya, 2004; Emanuel et al., 2008). Regional Climate Models are able to simulate weak cyclone-like storm systems that are broadly representative of a storm or hurricane system but are still considered coarse in scale with respect to modelling hurricanes. The IPCC AR4 (Meehl et al., 2007) concludes that models are broadly consistent in indicating increases in precipitation intensity associated with tropical storms (e.g. Knutson and Tuleya, 2004; Knutson et al., 2008; Chauvin et al., 2006; Hasegawa and Emori, 2005; Tsutsui, 2002). The higher resolution models that simulate storms more credibly are also broadly consistent in indicating increases in associated peak wind intensities and mean rainfall (Knutson and Tuleya, 2004; Oouchi et al., 2006). We summarise the projected changes in wind and precipitation intensities from a selection of these modelling experiments in Table to give an indication of the magnitude of these changes. With regards to the frequency of tropical storms in future climate, models are strongly divergent. Several recent studies (e.g. Vecchi and Sodon, 2007; Bengtssen et al., 2007; Emanuel et al., 2008, Knutson et al., 2008) have indicated that the frequency of storms may decrease due to decreases in vertical wind shear in a warmer climate. In several of these studies, intensity of hurricanes still increases despite decreases in frequency (Emanuel et al., 2008; Knutson et al., 2008). In a recent study of the PRECIS regional climate model simulations for Central America and the Caribbean, Bezanilla et al., (2009) found that the frequency of Tropical -Cyclone-like Vortices increases on the Pacific coast of Central America but decreases on the Atlantic coast and in the Caribbean. When interpreting the modelling experiments we should remember that our models remain relatively primitive with respect to the complex atmospheric processes that are involved in hurricane formation and development. Hurricanes are particularly sensitive to some of the elements of climate physics that these models are weakest at representing, and are often only included by statistical parameterisations. Comparison studies have demonstrated that the choice of parameterisation scheme can exert a strong influence on the results of the study (e.g. Yoshimura et al., 2006). We should also recognise that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a strong and well established influence on Tropical Storm frequency in the North Atlantic, and explains a large proportion of inter-annual variability in hurricane frequency. This means that the future frequency of hurricanes in the North Atlantic is likely to be strongly dependent on whether the climate state becomes more El-Niño-like, or more La-Niña-like an issue upon which models are still strongly divided and suffer from significant deficiencies in simulating the fundamental features of ENSO variability (e.g. Collins et al., 2005). 26

68 Table : Changes in near-storm rainfall and wind intensity associated with Tropical storms in under global warming scenarios. Reference Knutson et al. (2008) Knutson and Tuleya (2004) Oouchi et al. (2006) GHG scenario Type of Model Domain Change in near-storm rainfall intensity Change peak intensity A1B Regional Climate Model Atlantic (+37, 23, 10)% when averaged within 50, 100 and 400 km of +2.9% the storm centre 1% per 9 GCMs + nested Global % +5-7% year CO 2 regional model with 4 increase different moist convection schemes. A1B High Resolution GCM Global N/A +14% North Atlantic +20% in wind Sea Level Rise Observed records of sea level from tidal gauges and satellite altimeter readings indicate a global mean SLR of 1.8 (+/- 0.5) mm yr -1 over the period (Bindoff et al., 2007). Acceleration in this rate of increase over the course of the 20 th Century has been detected in most regions (Woodworth et al., 2009; Church and White, 2006). There are large regional variations superimposed on the mean global SLR rate. Observations from tidal gauges surrounding the Caribbean basin (Table ) indicate that SLR in the Caribbean is broadly consistent with the global trend (Table ). Table : Sea level rise rates at observation stations surrounding the Caribbean Basin Tidal Gauge Station Observed trend (mm yr -1 ) Observation period Bermuda 2.04 (+/- 0.47) San Juan, Puerto Rico 1.65 (+/- 0.52) Guantanamo Bay, Cuba 1.64 (+/- 0.80) Miami Beach, Florida 2.39 (+/1 0.43) Vaca Key, Florida 2.78 (+/- 0.60) (Source: NOAA, 2009) Projections of future SLR associated with climate change have recently become a topic of heated debate in scientific research. The IPCC s AR4 report summarised a range of SLR projections under each of its standard scenarios, for which the combined range spans m by 2100 relative to levels (see ranges for each scenario in Table ). These estimates have since been challenged for being too conservative and a number of studies (e.g. Rahmstorf, 2007; Rignot and Kanargaratnam, 2006; Horton et al., 2008) have provided evidence to suggest that their uncertainty range should include a much larger upper limit. Total sea level rises associated with atmospheric warming appear largely through the combined effects of two main mechanisms: (a) thermal expansion (the physical response of the water mass of the oceans to atmospheric warming) and (b) ice-sheet, ice-cap and glacier melt. Whilst the rate of thermal expansion of the oceans in response to a given rate of temperature increase is projected relatively consistently between 27

69 GCMs, the rate of ice melt is much more difficult to predict due to our incomplete understanding of icesheet dynamics. The IPCC total SLR projections comprise of 70-75% (Meehl et al., 2007a) contribution from thermal expansion, with only a conservative estimate of the contribution from ice sheet melt (Rahmstorf, 2007). Recent studies that observed acceleration in ice discharge (e.g. Rignot and Kanargaratnam, 2006) and observed rates of SLR in response to global warming (Rahmstorf, 2007), suggest that ice sheets respond highly-non linearly to atmospheric warming. We might therefore expect continued acceleration of the large ice sheets resulting in considerably more rapid rates of SLR. Rahmstorf (2007) is perhaps the most well cited example of such a study and suggests that future SLR might be in the order of twice the maximum level that the IPCC, indicating up to 1.4 m by Scenario Table : Projected increases in sea level rise from the IPCC AR4 Global Mean Sea Level Rise by 2100 relative to Caribbean Mean Sea Level Rise by 2100 relative to (+/ 0.05m relative to global mean) IPCC B IPCC A1B IPCC A Rahmstorf, 2007 Up to 1.4m Up to 1.45m (Source: Meehl et al., 2007 contrasted with those of Rahmstorf, 2007) Storm Surge Changes to the frequency or magnitude of storm surge experienced at coastal locations in the Dominican Republic are likely to occur as a result of the combined effects of: 1. Increased mean sea level in the region, which raises the base sea level over which a given storm surge height is superimposed. 2. Changes in storm surge height, or frequency of occurrence, resulting from changes in the severity or frequency of storms. 3. Physical characteristics of the region (bathymetry and topography) which determine the sensitivity of the region to storm surge by influencing the height of the storm surge generated by a given storm. Sections 3.10 and 3.11 discuss the potential changes in sea level and hurricane intensity that might be experienced in the region under (global) warming scenarios. The high degree of uncertainty in both of these contributing factors creates difficulties in estimating future changes in storm surge height or frequency. Further impacts on storm surge flood return period may include: Potential changes in storm frequency: some model simulations indicate a future reduction in storm frequency, either globally or at the regional level. If such decreases occur they may offset these increases in flood frequency at a given elevation. Potential increases in storm intensity: evidence suggests overall increases in the intensity of storms (lower pressure, higher near storm rainfall and wind speeds) which would cause increases in the storm surges associated with such events, and contribute further to increases in flood frequency at a given elevation. 28

70 4. VULNERABILITY AND IMPACTS PROFILE FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Vulnerability is defined as the inherent characteristics or qualities of social systems that create the potential for harm. Vulnerability is a function of exposure and sensitivity of [the] system (Adger, 2006; Cutter, 1996 cited in Cutter et al. 2008, p. 599). Climate change is projected to be a progressive process and therefore vulnerability will arise at different time and spatial scales affecting communities and sectors in distinct ways. Participatory approaches to data collection were implemented in Bayahibe to provide additional community-level data and in Punta Cana field GIS work enabled the creation of sea level rise impact data and maps. To help in the identification and analysis of vulnerability, the following sections discuss the implications and impacts of climate change on key sectors as they relate to tourism in Dominican Republic. The Dominican Republic is already experiencing some of the effects of climate variability through damages from severe weather systems and the decline of some coastal tourism attractions. According to the Government of the Dominican Republic, the major issues of climate change are SLR and the likelihood of more intense weather systems (e.g. hurricanes) Water Quality and Availability Background The Dominican Republic has abundant water resources; approximately 108 watersheds are used for irrigation, drinking water and the generation of hydroelectricity. Major water courses include the Yaque del Norte River which, at 296 km long and a basin area of 7,044 km 2, is the longest and largest river in the Antilles (Figure 4.1.1). Other rivers running through the country are short and of rapid flow and have an irregular water level. The Dominican Republic also has the largest number of lakes and ponds in the Antilles, including Lake Enriquillo with an area of 265 km 2, located about 40 m below sea level, which is the only saline lake in the Caribbean (Haggerty, 1989; Hispaniola.com, 2010; MENR, 2010). Due to the country s topography there is a high diversity of microclimates and as such rainfall varies widely across the country. Average annual precipitation is approximately 1,500 mm ranging from less than 500 mm in the northwest and southwest to over 2,500 mm in the northeast part of the country. Precipitation produces about 73 billion m 3 per year, of which about 70% (51 billion m 3 ) is lost through evaporation. The remaining 22 billion m 3 supplies streams and lakes (Table 4.1.1) of which about 3 billion m 3 infiltrates into the subsurface, recharging the ground water (USACE, 2002c). About 67% of the fresh water supply in the Dominican Republic comes from surface water and 33% from ground water (Figure 4.1.2). Most of the ground water resources are in the southern part of the country, such as the Rio Ozama and the Rio Yaque del Sur Basins; recharge to the underlying aquifers in these areas may be greater than 2.2 billion m 3 per year (FAO, 2000). As of 2010, the population is estimated at nearly 10 million approximately 2.5 million of whom live in the capital, Santo Domingo. The annual water availability per capita was 2,711 m 3 per person per year in 1999 and has since decreased; current per capita consumption of water is 2,186.6 m 3 per person per year (based on 2004 population estimate of 8,871,823) (SEMARENA, 2006). Hydrological resources are important to the Dominican population for drinking water, power generation and irrigation of agricultural lands (UNDP, 29

71 2010). Water is unevenly distributed and shortages may occur, especially in areas where irrigation water is in high demand, such as in the Cibao Valley, the Azua plain, and the plains east of Lago Enriquillo (USACE, 2002c). Approximately 44% of the water in the water supply system cannot be accounted for. Of that amount, 38% is physically lost from the system (USACE, 2002c). Irrigation is a major consumer of water in the Dominican Republic (Table 4.1.2); water consumption in agriculture in 2000 was 6,900 million m 3 and USACE (2002c) estimated it slightly higher at 7,500 million m 3. A potential 710,000 ha of agricultural land could be benefited by irrigation; of this area, 37% (265,125 ha) is equipped with irrigation and drainage systems however about 20% of the equipped area has drainage problems, resulting in thousands of acres of unproductive land (SEMARENA, 2009). Despite the abundance of natural water resources in the Dominican Republic the supply of water to the population is considered as low, with population growth leading to the country s water availability being categorised as very low (less than m 3 per person per year) (SEMARENA, 2006). Only 65% of the population has easy access to water for domestic use, while 41% of the population has household connection, and only 11% of the country's inhabitants have sanitation (INDRHI, 2000). Among other waterborne diseases cholera should be given specific mention. In 2010, there were 191 cases of cholera and another 53 cases in only the first two weeks of January As stated in the Health Sector of this report, cases have been detected and reported in 15 of the 31 provinces indicating the seriousness of the scope of the disease (PAHO, 2011). According to World Health Organisation, in 2008 access to improved drinking water was 87% (WHO/UNICEF, 2010). Urban access to improved drinking water has shown a decline since 1990 while rural access has increased (Table 4.1.3). The share of urban households with access to piped-in water decreased from 84% in 2000 to 80% in 2004, while the share of rural households rose to 51% in 2004 from 46% in 2000 (WHO/UNICEF, 2010). 30

72 Figure 4.1.1: Surface Water Resources of the Dominican Republic (Source: USACE, 2002b) 31

73 Figure 4.1.2: Ground water resources of the Dominican Republic. (Source: USACE, 2002a) Tourism gained prominence in the Dominican Republic around the 1980s, and now plays a major role in the country s development as well as becoming the largest foreign exchange earner. In 2010, just over 4 million tourists visited the Dominican Republic (CTO, 2011) and in 2009 there were 441 cruise ship calls (CTO, 2010). Currently, tourism accounts for more than US $4,300 million in annual earnings making it one of the fastest growing export sectors, along with organic products and telecommunications. It has been projected that the direct contribution of travel and tourism will amount to 5.5% of total GDP in 2011; and is expected to rise to 9.1% by Tourism depends greatly on the quality of water resources and the growth in the Dominican Republic s tourism sector has increased demand on potable water and sewage services. Hotel water consumption is four times higher than domestic consumption. Many resorts have their own water purification and sewerage systems. However, some tourism accommodations are injecting untreated wastes into existing wells further contaminating aquifers (USACE, 2002c). 32

74 Basin Table 4.1.1: Major watersheds in the Dominican Republic Area drained (km 3 ) Precipitation Annual Average (mm) Runoff Annual Average (billion m 3 ) Bahoruco to Rio Yaque del Sur to 1500 Azua, Bani and San Cristobal to 2000 Ozama River to 2250 San Pedro de Marcoris and La Romana to 2250 Higuey to 1750 Miches and Sabana del Mar to Samana Peninsula 854 North Coast Area to 2300 Rio Yuna to 2250 Rio Yaque del Norte to 2000 Rio Dajabon to 2000 Arbonite River to Lago Enriquillo to 750 * Total ** *The runoff generated in the basin of Lake Enriquillo is included in the total for the first seven basins listed. **Original source total is 48730, but correct total of values given is 48,788 (Source: FAO, 2000) Table 4.1.2: Annual Water Demands Type of Use Quantity of Water (million m 3 ) Domestic 1,450 Irrigation 7,500 Tourism 40 Cattle Activities 45 Environmental 500 Industrial 305 Total 9,840 (Source: USACE, 2002c) Table 4.1.3: Access to improved drinking water and sanitation in the Dominican Republic from Year Percentage of population using improved drinking water sources Percentage of population using improved sanitation facilities Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total (Source: WHO/UNICEF, 2010) Due to the low population density in rural areas, the cost of providing potable water service is usually much greater than in urban areas and, since incomes in many rural areas are lower, people may find it hard to afford a high quality service. According a report by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 77% of homes in the Dominican Republic have water meters to monitor use and to charge accordingly (USACE, 2002c). In 2011 the Water and Sewerage Corporation of Santo Domingo (CAASD) increased the rate of water in some sectors of society between 50 and 67%. The baseline consumption of 32 m 3 was increased from RD $6.00 to 33

75 RD $10.00 (US $0.16 to US $0.26). The first additional consumption increased from RD $6.00 to RD $10.00 (US $0.16 to US $0.26) and the second additional consumption increased from RD $ 8.00 to RD $ 12 (US $0.21 to US $0.31). Sewerage system cost also increased from RD $ 1.20 to RD $ 1.60 (US $0.03 to US $0.04) for basic consumption. The "technical adjustment" of the tariff was made in attempt to try to control water wastage in higher economic sectors of the city, which waste 70% of actual product (Pilar, 2011). However a few days later by order of the President Leonel Fernandez, the company rescinded the increase because the economy could not support the raise in tariffs (Pilar, 2011) Vulnerability of Water Availability and Quality Sector to Climate Change Human activities and development is degrading the quality of water resources in the Dominican Republic. Surface waters are threatened by pollutants, mining of sand and gravel from rivers, damming and diversions of waterways, dredging of canals and deforestation (MENR, 2010). High levels of erosion resulting from deforestation cause sedimentation of rivers and this in turn has serious impacts on aquatic biodiversity and obstructs water flow. The main environmental problem affecting groundwater is the over extraction from aquifers, which has caused saltwater intrusion (Werbrouck et al., 2004). Infiltration of domestic sewage and irrigation water into groundwater is another concern in the management of national water resources. Water quality and quantity are also affected by seasonal changes in climate. In the Dominican Republic the dry season runs from December to March with March being the driest month, and the rainy season from May to November, with May being the wettest. Hurricanes may occur during the rainy season bringing heavy winds and rain, causing flooding and extensive environmental damage and economic loss (McSweeney et al., 2009). The country s topography and exposure to trade winds results in localised variations in micro-climate. Orographic rains occur in four parts of the country: i) the coast of Escocesa and Samana Bay, from Cabrera to Miches, ii) the northern slopes of the Northern Range, from Puerto Plata to Gaspar Hernandez, iii) the eastern part of the Central Cordillera range, from Jarabacoa to San Cristobal, and iv) the eastern part of the Sierra de Bahoruco, south of Barahona (SEMARENA, 2009). Climate change projections for the Dominican Republic indicate a decrease in annual precipitation and an increase in average daily temperatures which will mean increased rates of evapotranspiration (see section on Climate Modelling). With an increasing population and expanding tourism industry greater demands will be placed on water resources causing significant impacts on water availability. A reduction in average annual rainfall is likely to increase the incidence of drought. Saltwater intrusion caused by the combination of SLR, reduced rainfall and over-abstraction, may reduce of quality of drinking water and irrigation water supplies. Drought in the Dominican Republic Decreases in precipitation are projected for many sub-tropical areas including the Caribbean region, which is also likely to experience shorter rainy seasons and precipitation in shorter duration, intense events interspersed with longer periods of relatively dry conditions (Bates et al., 2008). A significant increase in the number of consecutive dry days has been found for the Caribbean region (Bates et al., 2008), indicating that periods of drought are becoming increasingly common. As a result, drought management will become a progressively large challenge, requiring a multi-focal approach due to its non-structural nature and complex spatial patterns. This makes it a difficult task to find suitable solutions to adapt to the problems created by drought conditions (e.g. Campbell et al., 2011). Good management of the water supply system is critical for drought mitigation, needing careful operation of water supply infrastructure to be effective 34

76 (e.g. Fang et al., 2011; Hyde et al., 1994; Shih and Revelle, 1994). Measures taken to mitigate the effects of drought conditions in the Caribbean region have included the use of truck water for in-country redistribution, the rotation of water supply, increased desalination, and the importation of water from other countries using barges. The severity of drought varies across the country depending on local climate, water usage and water resource availability (Figure 4.1.3). Recent experiences indicate how water shortages affect the country. During the first months of 2011 the Dominican Republic faced a severe precipitation deficit: within the first three months of % of the country showed lower levels of runoff than normal for the period The provinces affected by this decrease of runoff were Azua, La Vega, Monseñor Noel, and Santiago (SEVIR, 2011). In 2010 a north east regional drought caused agricultural losses in rice, cocoa, banana, cassava, sweet potato, pumpkin and corn crops. The drought also impacted large grass areas, causing millions in losses in livestock, especially dairy cattle. The drought caused a 22% water deficit of 100 million gallons daily in Santo Domingo and 20% in all aqueducts nationwide [and] shortages ranged from 52% to 49%, though accentuated in the regions of the South Yaque, whose flow is 86% less and the North Yaque 66% (Dominican Today, 2010b). Figure 4.1.3: Decade of drought for a return period of 30 years during the month of September (Source: Department of Climatology, National Bureau of Meteorology) The Instituto Nacional de Recursos Hidráulicos or National Institute of Water Resources (INDRHI) monitors weather trends and its impacts on hydrological resources and provides advice to citizens on actions that should be taken during periods of drought. Citizens were advised to use water rationally, and farmers were advised to irrigate at night in order to use the water more efficiently (Pilar, 2011). In response to the 2010 drought, the Ministry of Agriculture announced a national plan of assistance to livestock and crop farmers in the affected areas. A technical team made an assessment to quantify the impact of natural phenomena and a plan was developed to distribute animal feed and reschedule planting different crops, giving priority to areas with irrigation systems. In recent years the Ministry of Agriculture has built 3,100 boreholes to provide water to more than 150,000 farmers and ranchers (INDRHI, 2010). 35

77 Coastal aquifers and salt water intrusion Coastal aquifers are threatened by seawater intrusion with rising sea levels, exacerbated by a decrease in groundwater recharge through over-abstraction and decreasing precipitation (Bates et al., 2008; Lewsey et al., 2004; Werner and Simmons, 2009). A rise in sea level as low as 0.1 m may cause a decrease in aquifer thickness of more than 10 m (Bobba et al., 2002), leading to substantial declines in freshwater availability. Reductions in groundwater recharge to inland aquifers can also lead to seawater intrusion if they are next to saline aquifers (Chen et al., 2004), indicating a potential knock-on effect where coastal aquifers become saline due to SLR, then neighbouring aquifers experience saltwater intrusion during dry periods with low groundwater recharge. With global average sea levels found to be rising at a rate of 1.8 ± 0.3 mm per year (White et al., 2005) and with rates increasing (Church and White, 2006), coastal aquifers may be severely impacted by saltwater intrusion and many countries may lose vital water resources. Storm surges from hurricanes can cause extensive damage to aquifers (Anderson, 2002), the risk of which will increase as higher sea levels reduce the level of the storm surge required for contamination to occur. In the Caribbean, sea levels have been observed to have risen between 1.5 and 3 mm per year (see Section 3). Factors which increase the vulnerability of aquifers to saline intrusion include (i) their proximity to the sea, (ii) increasing abstractions due to rising demand from domestic, agricultural and industrial uses (Karanjac, 2004), and (iii) declining groundwater recharge through reduced precipitation or an increased proportion of surface runoff through precipitation occurring in higher intensity, shorter duration events (Bates et al., 2008) or decreased infiltration of water through land-cover changes agriculture (Scanlon et al., 2005; Zhang and Schilling, 2006). There are numerous wells in the Dominican Republic (Figure 4.1.4): in Distrito Nacional alone there are over 1,200. Most of the wells are coastal, particularly those east of Santo Domingo in the east coastal plain, the Planicie Costera Oriental (PCO). Over abstraction has already resulted in seawater intrusion of wells in PCO and with the intended increase of tourism developments planned for PCO, the situation is likely to be exacerbated (Karanjac, 2005). A Ground Water Information System (GWIS) currently contains information and water quality, lithology, abstractions, water levels and salinity profiles for about 1,900 wells (Figure 4.1.4). It is speculated that water over-abstraction has already caused saltwater intrusion reaching 20 to 50 km inland from the shoreline of the Dominican Republic (Werbrouck et al., 2004). Some 10,000 hectares (3%) of the highest quality farmland are now out of production, and over 50% of irrigated land is degraded (Werbrouck et al., 2004). Figure shows that the conductivity in every freshwater lagoon in Punta Cana increased within a one year period. While this is not an extensive data set, it is the first step in providing an adequate sample data regarding the problems associated with salt water intrusion (Grady and Younis, 2010). 36

78 Figure 4.1.4: Distribution of wells across the Dominican Republic (Source: Karanjac, 2004) Irrigation Efficiency in Agriculture Globally, agricultural water use comprises around 70% of total water extractions (Wisser et al., 2008) yet, in the drier, warmer environment expected under climate change in the Caribbean, irrigation water demand is likely to increase, exacerbating the effects of decreases in water availability (Döll, 2002). Increased evaporative demands under climate change may lead to reductions in irrigation efficiency (Fischer et al., 2007). Careful consideration will need to be given to efficient irrigation practices and technology to reduce wastage and increase the amount of water reaching the crop, estimated to be as low as 40% worldwide (Pimentel et al., 1997). The current water demand for irrigation is estimated at 7,500 mm 3 / year (USACE, 2002c). Drainage problems and unaccounted water losses in the systems reduced the efficiency of irrigation infrastructure. If precipitation decreases and temperatures increase as projected, evapotranspiration rates can be expected to increase and this will also affect the available soil moisture. Based on previous experience, crops such as rice, cocoa, banana, cassava and sweet potato among other vegetable crops will be particularly affected threatening the livelihoods of farmers and food security of the nation (See Section on Agriculture). In addition, the negative impacts that drought has had on grasslands and subsequently livestock has poor economic implications for ranchers (Dugey, 2011). Flooding in the Dominican Republic Intense rainfall from storm events may only last a few hours but can result in serious rapid-onset flooding, particularly when they occur in catchments that are small, steep or highly urbanised, as is the case in the much of the Caribbean region. Floods are a particular problem for water resources because, aside from the potential for loss of life and property, they can affect water quality and have implications for sanitation and cause serious soil erosion. Flooding erodes topsoil along with animal waste, faeces, pesticides, fertilisers, 37

79 sewage and garbage, which may then contaminate groundwater sources as well as marine areas. Erosion may lead to the formation and deepening of gullies which, if they develop in hill slope areas with temporary water tables, may lead to enhanced drainage leading to groundwater discharge (Poesen et al., 2003). While GCM modelling projections indicate an overall tendency for decreases in overall precipitation across the Caribbean region (see Climate Modelling section), excluded from these projections is the potential of an increase in the frequency and intensity of storm events with associated heavy rainfall (Frei et al., 1998; Min et al., 2011), including those associated with hurricanes. Research by Emanuel (2005) shows a strong correlation between hurricane size and sea surface temperature, suggesting an upward trend in hurricane destructive potential. Statistical analysis (Trenberth, 2005) and modelling (Knutson and Tuleya, 2004) suggest that hurricane intensity will increase, with the north Atlantic Ocean in particular showing an increasing trend in storm frequency (Deo et al., 2011). The hurricane season lasts from June through to November but the peak season is usually between August and September. When major hurricanes hit the Dominican Republic they can be devastating, and most often strike the southern or eastern coasts. The country s topography, loss of forest cover and location of infrastructure and housing in flood-prone areas leads to high levels of vulnerability to flooding in the Dominican Republic. Low lying areas have a high risk of flash floods which occur frequently from June to October. In September 1998, Hurricane Georges brought nearly 500 mm of rain in five days affecting nearly 70% of the country (USACE, 2002c). Damages to farms, roads, and buildings surpassed $1.2 billion. The effect of such a hurricane was magnified by the reduced forest cover. Flooding triggers landslides, increases water and food contamination, and also destroys the physical infrastructure of the country (USACE, 2002c). In 2003 floods occurred in the area of Cibao and the basins of the Yuna and Yaque del Norte Rivers; these were aggravated by an earthquake on the northern coast of the country and the off-season occurrence of Tropical Storm Odette (Downing, 2005). Intense rainfall accompanying the storm fell on already saturated soils increasing water runoff. The flooding resulted in loss of human life, cattle, crops, productive infrastructure and housing; direct losses amounted to $32.6 million and indirect damages were estimated at $9.9 million; a combined total of $42.5 million (Zapata, 2006). In addition, the external sector registered losses in the amount of $9.2 million. The major effect was experienced within the agricultural sector with 73% of the total losses, followed by the transports sector with 17%, and health with 4% (Zapata, 2006). With regards to the social sectors (7.5%) this event affected housing, health, sanitation and water services. The most affected population was that of the Northern region, given their higher level of vulnerability and exposure to climate and health risks (Zapata, 2006). In 2007 and 2008 the Dominican Republic was again impacted by extreme weather events that caused loss of life and millions of dollars in damage. 38

80 4.2. Energy Supply and Distribution Background A global perspective Tourism is a significant user of energy and a concomitant contributor to emissions of greenhouse gases. In various national comparisons, tourism has been identified as one of the most energy intense sectors, which moreover is largely dependent on fossil fuels (e.g. Gössling et al., 2005; Gössling, 2010). Likewise, the growing energy intensity of economies in the Caribbean has caused concern among researchers (e.g. Francis et al., 2007). Globally, tourism causes 5% of emissions of CO 2, the most relevant greenhouse gas. When the radiative forcing of all greenhouse gases is considered, tourism s contribution to global warming increases to % (Scott et al., 2010). The higher share is a result of emissions of nitrous oxides (NO x ) as well as water leading to the formation of aviation induced clouds (AIC), which cause additional radiative forcing. The range in the estimate is primarily attributed to uncertainties regarding the role of AIC in trapping heat (Lee et al., 2009). Aviation is consequently the most important tourism subsector in terms of its impact on climate change, accounting for at least 40% (CO 2 ) of the contribution made by tourism to climate change. This is followed by cars (32% of CO 2 ), accommodation (21%), activities (4%), and other transport (3%), notably cruise ships (1.5%). In the future to 2050, emissions from tourism are expected to grow considerably. Based on a business as usual scenario for 2035, which considers changes in travel frequency, length of stay, travel distance, and technological efficiency gains, UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008) estimate that emissions will increase by about 135% compared to Similar figures have been presented by the World Economic Forum (WEF, 2009). Aviation will remain the most important emissions sub-sector of the tourism system, with expected emission growth by a factor 2-3. As global climate policy will seek to achieve considerable emission reductions in the order of 50% of 1990 emission levels by 2050, aviation, and tourism more generally, will be in stark conflict with achieving global climate goals, possibly accounting for a large share of the sustainable emissions budget, (see Figure 4.2.1). 39

81 Lines A and B in Figure represent emission pathways for the global economy under a -3% per year (A) and -6% per year (B) emission reduction scenario, with emissions peaking in 2015 (A) and 2025 (B) respectively. Both scenarios are based on the objective of avoiding a +2 C warming threshold by 2100 (for details see Scott et al. 2010). As indicated, a business as usual scenario in tourism, considering current trends in energy efficiency gains, would lead to rapid growth in emissions from the sector (line C). By 2060, the tourism sector would account for emissions exceeding the emissions budget for the entire global economy (intersection of line C with line A or B). Figure 4.2.1: Global CO 2 emission pathways versus unrestricted tourism emissions growth (Source: Scott et al., 2010) Achieving emission reductions in tourism in line with global climate policy will consequently demand considerable changes in the tourism system, with a reduction in overall energy use, and a switch to renewable energy sources. Such efforts will have to be supported through technology change, carbon management, climate policy, behavioural change, education and research (Gössling, 2010). Carbon taxes and emissions trading are generally seen as key mechanisms to achieve emissions reductions. Destinations and tourism stakeholders consequently need to engage in planning for a low carbon future. The Caribbean perspective It is widely acknowledged that the Caribbean accounts for only 0.2% of global emissions of CO 2, with a population of 40 million, i.e. 0.6% of the world s population (Dulal et al., 2009). Within the region, emissions are however highly unequally distributed between countries, (see Figure 4.2.2). For instance, Trinidad & Tobago, as an oil-producing country, has annual per capita emissions reaching those of high emitters such as the USA (25 t CO 2 ). The Cayman Islands (7 t CO 2 per capita per year) are emitting in the same order as countries such as Sweden. The Dominican Republic belongs to the regions low emitters with per capita emissions of 2.11 t CO 2 (see Figure and Figure 4.2.4; see also (UNDP, 2009). In the future, global emissions have to decline considerably below 4.3 t CO 2 per capita per year, the current global average. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests a decline in emissions by 20% by 2020 (IPCC, 2007), corresponding to about 3 t CO 2 per capita per year, a figure that also considers global population growth. While there is consequently room for many countries in the region to increase per capita emissions, including in particular Haiti, many of the more developed countries in the Caribbean will need to adjust per capita emissions budgets downwards, i.e. reduce national emissions in the medium term 40

82 future. Figure 4.2.2: Per capita emissions of CO 2 in selected countries in the Caribbean, 2005 (Source: Hall et al., 2009) Important in the context of this report is that in most Caribbean countries, tourism is a major contributor to emissions of greenhouse gases (Simpson et al., 2008; see also country reports in the Risk Atlas). As these emissions are not usually quantified, however, the purpose of this assessment is to look in greater detail into energy use by this sector Dominican Republic The Dominican Republic consumes approximately 130,000 barrels of fuel daily, with the main consumers of fuel being the transport sector (49%) and electricity generation (29%) according to the Comisión Nacional de Energía (National Energy Commission; CNE), (CNE, 2011). In 2001, close to 90% of energy was imported, which consisted mostly of crude oil and petroleum-based products and similar levels of imports have continued. There are several actors in electricity generation, transmission and distribution operations within the Dominican Republic, including state owned entities, private entities (majority owner of generation facilities) and independent power providers (IPPs), with a total of 54 generating stations and over 100 generators. In 2009, the installed electricity generating capacity of the Dominican Republic was approximately 3,000 MW, compared to 2,500 MW ten years prior. The current capacity is distributed near-evenly amongst five types of electricity generating turbines including diesel, hydropower, steam, gas and combined turbines (see Figure 4.2.3). Wind power has also been recently added (Dominican Today, 2011a). There is a visible increase in the percentage share of combined powered turbines, with an equally significant reduction in the share of installed capacity held by gas powered turbines. This follows a reduction in the use of gas turbines by three power producing entities, and an increase in the use of combined systems by three different entities between (CNE, 2010a). 41

83 Tonnes Percentage Distribution by Generator Technology (2000) Percentage Distribution by Generator Technology (2009) 31% 16% 19% 15% Hydropower Diesel 7% 23% 22% 24% Steam Combined Gas 23% 20% Figure 4.2.3: Change in percentage distribution of installed capacity, (Source: (CNE, 2010a) Electricity generation consumes a total of 7.4 Mt of petroleum equivalents per year (including crude and fuel oil, as well as diesel and gasoline) and between 2000 and 2008, electricity production ranged from 8.8 TWh (2004) to 11.6 TWh (2008) with a continually rising trend from 2004 (UNDP, 2009; (CNE, 2010a)) According to the Enlighten Initiative, total energy consumption and CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion are reported to be in the order of 13 TWh and 19.3 Mt of CO 2 respectively (Enlighten Initiative, 2010). Figure indicates growth in emissions, based on a per capita assessment. In the period 1990 to 2000, emissions of CO 2 have increased by 80%, being in the order of 2.2 t CO 2 per capita per year in Emissions of all greenhouse gases, measured in CO 2 equivalents, are higher and exceed 3 t CO 2 per capita per year. The rapid growth indicates that current emissions are likely to be substantially higher, while further growth can also be expected in the tourism sector CO2 CO2-equiv Figure 4.2.4: Growth trends in per capita emissions in the Dominican Republic, 2000 (Source: UNDP, 2009) According to the government s second communication to the UNFCCC (UNDP, 2009), total emissions of CO 2 equivalents amounted to Mt CO 2 equivalent in 2000 (Table 4.2.1). The major part of these emissions is from energy industries (9.2 Mt CO 2 equivalent), followed by transport (6.0 Mt CO 2 equivalent). International bunker fuels (aviation) are reported to be in the order of 1.0 Mt CO 2, and are not included in total national emissions of Mt CO 2 (separate reporting according to UNFCCC rules). Overall, emissions in the Dominican Republic would thus have amounted to about 19.1 Mt CO 2 equivalents in

84 Table 4.2.1: Emissions from fossil fuel use by sector, 2000 Sources (by Sector) Emissions (t) Emissions (t CO 2 equivalent) CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O TE Energy Industry 9, , , Manufacturing & Construction 1, , , Transport 5, , , Commercial and Institutional Residential 1, , , Other Total 17, , TE: Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions in t CO 2 equivalent (Source: UNDP, 2009) In 2001, total energy consumption in hotels amounted to 1.02 Mt of petroleum equivalents, most of which comprised electricity (65.6%), and 62.1% of the electricity used is for ventilation and air conditioning purposes. Oil and gas (20.2%) and LPG (13.9%) are the other major sources of energy along with marginal contributions from solar, charcoal and firewood (CNE, 2004). Table 4.2.2: Usage of Energy in Hotel Sub-Sector, 2001 Energy Source Electricity Diesel LPG Wood, Charcoal Solar Hotel Use Ventilation and air conditioning Lighting Food preservation Machine and device operation Water Heating (mainly in large hotels) Cooking Water heating Cooking Water heating (Source: CNE, 2004) Hotels comprise only one sub-sector and energy consumption levels in the wider tourism sector would have been considerably greater. Additionally, based on the increase in energy demand and supply since 2001, energy consumption within the hotel sub-sector would have also increased. In the absence of more recent detailed data on energy use and emissions in tourism, Table provides a bottom-up analysis to derive an estimate of emissions in this sector for

85 Table 4.2.3: Assessment of CO 2 emissions from tourism in the Dominican Republic, 2008 Tourism sub-sector Energy use Emissions % Assumptions Aviation 1) 807,343 t fuel 2,543,130 t CO 2 62 Bottom-up analysis Road transport 2) 1,580 t fuel 131,329 t CO 2 3 Including tourists, not day visitors Cruise ships 3) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a Accommodation 4) 788 GWh 788,000 t CO 2 19 Based on energy statistics from Barbados Activities 5) - 107,451 t CO 2 3 Global average Sub-total 3,569,910 t CO 2 87 Indirect energy use 535,487 t CO 2 15 To account for life-cycle emissions (factor 1.15) Total 4,105,397 t CO ) Aviation fuels: there were 3,979,672 tourist arrivals in 2008, with major markets including Europe (32.9%), USA (27.8%), Canada (16.1%) and Other (33.2%) (UNWTO, 2010). Consequently, aviation would have consumed (bunker fuel approach, i.e. only including fuels for travelling from Dominican Republic to country of origin): Europe (1,311,000 tourists x 7,612 pkm (Frankfurt) x kg CO 2 = 1,197,520 t CO 2 ), USA (1,108,000 tourists x 2,472 pkm (New York) x kg CO 2 = 328,677 t CO 2 ), Canada (640,000 x 2,921 pkm (Toronto) x kg CO 2 = 224,333 t CO 2 ), plus Other countries (1,321,000 tourists x 5,000 pkm x kg CO 2 = 792,600 t CO 2 ), i.e. 2,543,130 t CO 2. 2) Road Transport: 3,979,672 international tourist arrivals in 2008, with each tourist travelling an assumed 250 pkm during the stay. At an assumed average of kg CO 2 per pkm (50% occupancy rate; UNWTO-UNEP- WMO, 2008), emissions are in the order of 33 kg CO 2 (corresponding to about 13.2 l of diesel) per tourist, totalling 131,329 t CO 2, or about 41,040 t of fuel. Cruise tourists are not included. 3) No information on cruise ships has been included. 4) According to a study carried out in Barbados in 2010, hotels (n=22) used on average 22 kwh of energy per guest night. This value is also used for the Dominican Republic. At an assumed average length of stay of 9 nights in 2009 (no data on average length of stay available), the 3,979,672 guests would have stayed 35,817,000 nights, with a corresponding energy use of 788 GWh. Electricity production is assumed to be less efficient, and a value of 1 kg CO 2 per kwh is assumed here, resulting in emissions of 788,000 t CO 2. 5) Activities are included with the global assumption of 27 kg CO 2 per tourist, as provided in UNWTO-UNEP- WMO, (2008). Given the energy-intense character of many activities in tropical environments, including boat trips, scenic drives, helicopter flights, diving, the use of jet skis, or water skiing, this value may be conservative. The 3,979,672 tourists would thus have caused emissions from activities corresponding to 107,451 t CO 2. As energy use for activities will be partially fossil fuel, and partly electricity based, it is difficult to translate these values into energy use. (Source: DEFRA, 2010; UNWTO-UNEP-WMO, 2008; UNWTO, 2010) Table shows the distribution of energy use by tourism sub-sector. Note, however, that this estimate is based on data with considerable uncertainties and excludes energy use in cruise tourism. Results indicate that emissions from tourism accounted for about 4.1 Mt CO 2 in 2008 this may be a conservative estimate, as national bunker fuels for aviation are reported to have caused emissions in the order of 1 Mt CO 2, in 2000, and these are likely to have increased since then. Compared to national emissions of greenhouse gases in the order of about 19 Mt CO 2 in 2000 (including bunker fuels for aviation), tourism would have caused the equivalent of about 21% of national greenhouse gas emissions. There is considerable uncertainty regarding this estimate because the country s current emissions are unknown and therefore the comparison is between 2000 (national emissions) and 2008 (tourism). Similarly, the national emissions estimate includes other greenhouse gases on the basis of CO 2 equivalents, whereas the tourism estimate only includes CO 2 emissions. Reducing energy use and emissions The Dominican Republic has presented one of the most advanced reports on emissions of greenhouse gases by sector, which also includes a detailed overview of measures to reduce these. For details, readers are referred to the second national communication to the UNFCCC, submitted in 2009 (UNDP, 2009). The document contains detailed calculations on abatement costs, and considers measures to reduce energy use 44

86 as well as to implement renewable energy use (solar, biofuels). The National Energy Plan (CNE, 2004) also presents an overview of the national energy sector, and highlights specific proposals for managing energy production, distribution and consumption, and ultimately pursuing a low carbon economy through the development of energy efficiency and renewable energy initiatives. Specific objectives of the plan include: 1. To guarantee safety and efficiency in the energy supply. 2. To promote the efficient management of demand and Rational Use of Energy. 3. To develop national energy resources. 4. To reduce the vulnerability of the energy system and the external supply. 5. To expand coverage and improve the quality of energy services in rural communities and semiurban areas. 6. To provide an appropriate institutional, legal and regulatory framework. (CNE, 2004) In the context of energy conservation, efficiency, and renewable energy use, readers are directed to the National Energy Commission (CNE, 2008; 2010b). The National Energy Plan has been further developed into a draft National Climate Compatible Development Plan that includes extensive analysis on how the country can achieve substantial emissions reductions, whilst at the same time pursuing economic growth (Government of the Dominican Republic, 2011). It includes limited information on the activities to be undertaken in the tourism sector. It deserves mention that the Dominican Republic is leading efforts to establishing a green economy. It is also part of the Enlighten Initiative funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), in partnership with UNEP, to replace conventional light bulbs with energy efficient bulbs. According to the Initiative (Enlighten Initiative, 2010), a phasing out of all conventional bulbs would yield yearly reductions in the order of 650 GWh, or 0.4 Mt CO 2. The Dominican Republic boasts the largest wind park in the Caribbean at the Los Cocos and Quilvio Cabrera complex. The facility has a total of 19 wind turbines which, in its first stage, will generate 33 MW of energy. It is anticipated that the energy generated by the park will save the country approximately 700,000 barrels of oil per year and subsequently prevent 1,700 tonnes of CO 2 emissions (Dominican Today, 2011a). Solar energy projects have also been implemented at the household and community level, and particularly in rural areas, through funding and technical support from agencies such as the GEF Small Grants Programme and USAID in conjunction with local NGOs. One initiative includes the solar energy project in Sabana Mula, which has not only facilitated solar energy production but has also provided training and job opportunities through the establishment of micro-scale enterprises which sell photovoltaic equipment (MicroMACRO, n.d.). It is believed that there are approximately 20,000 solar panel systems installed as a result of the heavy promotion and GEF initiatives (CNE, 2004) Vulnerability of the Energy Sector to Climate Change Two key impacts related to energy and emissions are of relevance for the tourism sector and the wider economy. First of all, energy prices have fluctuated in the past, and there is evidence that the cost of oil on world markets will continue to increase. Secondly, if the international communities climate objective of stabilising temperatures at 2 C by 2100 is taken seriously, both regulation and market based instruments will have to be implemented to cut emissions of greenhouse gases. Such measures would affect the cost of mobility, in particular, air transport, being a highly energy- and emission-intense sector. The following sections will discuss past and future energy costs, the challenges of global climate policy and how these 45

87 interact to create vulnerabilities in the Dominican Republic s tourism sector and the vulnerabilities of the energy infrastructure. Energy costs High and rising energy costs should self-evidently lead to interest in more efficient operations but this does not appear to be the case in tourism generally. Since the turn of the 19 th Century, world oil prices only once exceeded those of the energy crisis in 1979 after the Iranian revolution. Even though oil prices declined because of the global financial crisis in 2008 (Figure 4.2.5) for the first time since 1981 (IEA, 2009) world oil prices have already begun to climb again in 2009, and are projected to rise further. The International Energy Agency (IEA) (IEA, 2010) projects for instance, that oil prices will almost double between 2009 and 2035 (in 2009 prices). Notably, Figure shows the decline in oil prices in 2009; in March 2011, Bloomberg reported Brent spot prices exceeding US $120/barrel. Figure 4.2.5: Crude oil prices (Source: after Williams, 2010) The IEA anticipates that even under its New Policies Scenario, which favours energy efficiency and renewable energies, energy demand will be 36% higher in 2035 than in 2008, with fossil fuels continuing to dominate demand (IEA, 2010). At the same time there is reason to believe that peak oil, i.e. the maximum capacity to produce oil, may be passed in the near future. The UK Energy Research Centre, for instance, concludes in a review of studies that a global peak in oil production is likely before 2030, with a significant risk of a peak before 2020 (UKERC, 2009). Note that while there are options to develop alternative fuels, considerable uncertainties are associated with these options, for instance with regard to costs, safety, biodiversity loss, or competition with food production (e.g. Harvey and Pilgrim, 2011). Rising costs for conventional fuels will therefore become increasingly relevant, particularly for transport, the sector most dependent on fossil fuels with the least options to substitute energy sources. Within the transport sector, aviation will be most affected due to limited options to use alternative fuels, which have to meet specific demands regarding safety and energy density (cf. Nygren et al., 2009; Upham et al., 2009). Likewise, while there are huge unconventional oil resources, including natural gas, heavy oil and tar sands, oil shales and 46

88 coal, there are long lead times in development, necessitating significant investments. The development of these oil sources is also likely to lead to considerably greater environmental impacts than the development of conventional oil resources (IEA, 2009). These findings are relevant for the tourism system as a whole because mobility is a pre-condition for tourism. Rising oil prices will usually be passed on to the customer, a situation evident in 2008, when many airlines added a fuel surcharge to plane tickets in order to compensate for the spike in oil prices. Increased travel costs can lead to a shift from long haul to shorter haul destinations. The cost of energy is one of the most important determinants in the way people travel, and the price of oil will influence travel patterns, with some evidence that in particular low fare and long haul flights are susceptible to changes in prices (e.g. Mayor and Tol, 2008). Moreover, it deserves mention that oil prices are not a simple function of supply and demand, involving different parameters such as long term contracts and hedging strategies, social and political stability in oil producing countries as well as the global security situation generally. This is well illustrated in the volatility of oil prices in the five year period , when the world market price of aviation fuel oscillated between a low of US $25 in 2002 (Doganis, 2006) and US $147 in mid-2008 (Gössling and Upham, 2009). The huge rise in oil prices, which was not expected by most actors in tourism, had a severe impact particularly on aviation. As late as December 2007, IATA projected the average 2008 price of a barrel of oil at US $87, up 6% from the average price level in 2007 (IATA, 2007). In early 2008, IATA corrected its projection of fuel prices to an average of US $106 per barrel for 2008, an increase of 22% over its previous estimate. However, in July 2008, oil prices reached US $147 per barrel, and IATA corrected its forecast for average oil prices in 2008 to almost US $142 per barrel, a price 75% higher than a year ago (IATA, 2008). In autumn 2008, again seemingly unexpected by the overwhelming majority of actors in tourism, the global financial system collapsed due to speculation of financial institutions with various forms of investment. As a result, the global economy went into recession, and by the end of 2008, oil prices had reached a low of US $40 per barrel. Fuel price volatility, in late 2008 exceeding 30% of operational costs (IATA, 2009, see Figure 4.2.6), had a range of negative impacts for airlines. Before the financial crisis, it appeared as if low fare carriers would be severely affected by high fuel prices, with even profitable airlines reporting falling profits, grounded aircraft and cancelled routes: high fuel prices had clearly affected the perception of travellers to fly at quasi-zero costs (cf. Gössling and Upham, 2009). However, when fuel costs declined because of the financial crisis, low cost carriers were apparently seen by many travellers as the only airlines still offering flights at reasonable prices thus reversing passenger choices to the disadvantage of the flag carriers. These examples show that high and rising oil prices, as well as price volatility can significantly affect tourism and in particular airlines, increasing destination vulnerability. 47

89 Figure 4.2.6: Fuel costs as part of a worldwide operating cost (Source: IATA, 2009) Climate policy As described in the introduction, climate change is high on the global political agenda, but so far, the European Union is the only region in the world with a legally binding target for emission reductions, imposed on the largest polluters. While it is likely that the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) will not seriously affect aviation, the only tourism sub-sector to be directly integrated in the scheme by 2012 (e.g. Mayor and Tol, 2009, see also Gössling et al., 2008), discussions are ongoing with regard to how to control emissions from consumption not covered by the EU-ETS. This is likely to lead to the introduction of significant carbon taxes in the EU in the near future (EurActiv, 2009). Moreover, the EU-ETS will set a tighter cap on emissions year-on-year, and in the medium term future, i.e. around , it can be assumed that the consumption of energy-intense products and services will become perceivably more expensive. There is also evidence of greater consumer pressure to implement pro-climate policies. While climate policy is only emerging in other regions, it can be assumed that in the near future, further legislation to reduce emissions will be introduced the new air passenger duty in the UK is a recent example, and has already been followed by Germany s departure tax (as of January 1, 2011). As of November 1, 2009, the UK introduced a new air passenger duty (APD) for aviation, which replaced its earlier, two-tiered APD. The new APD distinguishes four geographical bands, representing one-way distances from London to the capital city of the destination country/territory, and based on two rates, one for standard class of travel, and one for other classes of travel (Table 4.2.4). 48

90 Band, and approximate distance in miles from Table 4.2.4: UK air passenger duty as of November 1, 2009 In the lowest class of travel (reduced rate) From November 1, 2009 to October 31, 2010 From November 1, 2010 In other than the lowest class of travel * (Standard rate) From November 1, 2009 to October 31, 2010 From November 1, 2010 Band A (0-2,000) Band B (2,001-4,000) Band C (4,001-6,000) Band D (over 6,000) * The reduced rates apply where the passengers are carried in the lowest class of travel on any flight unless the seat pitch exceeds metres (40 inches), in which case, whether there is one or more than one class of travel the standard rates apply. (Source: HM Revenue & Customs, 2008) Scientifically, there is general consensus that a serious climate policy approach will be paramount in the transformation of tourism towards becoming climatically sustainable, as significant technological innovation and behavioural change will demand strong regulatory environments (e.g. Barr et al., 2010; Bows et al., 2009; Hickman and Banister, 2007; see also Giddens, 2009). As outlined by Scott et al., (2010), serious would include the endorsement of national and international mitigation policies by tourism stakeholders, a global closed emission trading scheme for aviation and shipping, the introduction of significant and constantly rising carbon taxes on fossil fuels, incentives for low carbon technologies and transport infrastructure, and, ultimately, the development of a vision for a fundamentally different global tourism economy. While this would demand a rather radical change from current business models in tourism, all of these aspects of a low carbon tourism system are principally embraced by business organisations. For instance, the World Economic Forum (WEF, 2009) suggests as mechanisms to achieve emission reductions i) a carbon tax on non-renewable fuels, ii) economic incentives for low carbon technologies, iii) a cap and trade system for developing and developed countries, and iv) the further development of carbon trading markets. Furthermore, evidence from countries seeking to implement low carbon policies suggests that the tourism businesses themselves also call for the implementation of legislation to curb emissions, a result of the wish for rules for all, with pro-climate oriented businesses demanding regulation and the introduction of market based instruments to reduce emissions (cf. Ernst & Young, 2010; PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2010). There is consequently growing consensus among business leaders and policy makers that emissions of greenhouse gases represent a market failure. The absence of a price on pollution encourages pollution, prevents innovation, and creates a market situation where there is little incentive to innovate (OECD, 2010). While governments have a wide range of environmental policy tools at their disposal to address this problem, including regulatory instruments, market based instruments, agreements, subsidies, or information campaigns, the fairest and most efficient way of reducing emissions is increasingly seen in higher fuel prices, i.e. the introduction of a tax on fuel or emissions (e.g. Sterner, 2007; Mayor and Tol, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010a,b; see also OECD, 2009 and 2010; WEF, 2009; PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2010). 49

91 Compared to other environmental instruments, such as regulations concerning emission intensities or technology prescriptions, environmentally related taxation encourages both the lowest cost abatement across polluters and provides incentives for abatement at each unit of pollution. These taxes can also be a highly transparent policy approach, allowing citizens to clearly see if individual sectors or pollution sources are being favoured over others. (Source: OECD, 2010) The overall conclusion is that emerging climate policy may be felt more in the future, and tourism stakeholders should seek to prepare for this. Vulnerabilities Generally, a destination could be understood as vulnerable when it is highly dependent on tourism, and when its tourism system is energy intense with only a limited share of revenues staying in the national economy. Figure shows this for various countries, expressed as a climate policy risk assessment. Destination climate policy risk assessment: eco-efficiency and tourism revenues as share of GDP. Notes: Lines represent the weighted average values for all 10 countries; H is either high (unfavourable) eco-efficiency or high dependency on tourism, L is either low (favourable) eco-efficiency or low dependency on tourism, eco-efficiency=local spending compared to total emissions, i.e. not considering air fares. Figure 4.2.7: Vulnerability of selected countries, measured as eco-efficiency and revenue share 50 (Source: Gössling et al., 2008) While global climate policy affecting transportation is currently only emerging, there are already a number of publications seeking to analyse the consequences of climate policy for tourism dependent countries. There is general consensus that current climate policy is not likely to affect mobility because international aviation is exempted from value-added tax (VAT), a situation not likely to change in the near future due to the existence of a large number of bi-lateral agreements. Furthermore, emissions trading as currently envisaged by the EU would, upon implementation in 2012, increase the cost of flying by just about 3 per 1,000 passenger kilometres (pkm) at permit prices of 25 per tonne of CO 2 (Scott et al., 2010). Similar findings are presented by Mayor and Tol (2010b), who model that a price of 23/t CO 2 per permit will have a negligible effect on emissions developments. Other considerable increases in transport costs due to

92 taxation are not currently apparent in any of the 45 countries studied by OECD & UNEP (2011), though such taxes may be implemented in the future. The example of the UK has been outlined above and Germany introduced a departure tax of 8, 25 and 45 for flights <2,000 km, 2,000-4,000 km and >4,000 km as of January 1, The implications of the EU-ETS for tourism in island states were modelled by Gössling et al. (2008). The study examined the implications of the EU-ETS for European outbound travel costs and tourism demand for ten tourism-dependent less developed countries with diverse geographic and tourism market characteristics. It confirmed that the EU-ETS would only marginally affect demand to these countries, i.e. causing a slight delay in growth in arrival numbers from Europe through to 2020, when growth in arrivals would be 0.2% to 5.8% lower than in the base line scenario (Gössling et al. 2008). As the Gössling et al. (2008) study only looked at climate policy but omitted oil prices, Pentelow and Scott (2010) modelled the consequences of a combination of climate policy and rising oil prices. A tourist arrivals model was constructed to understand how North American and European tourist demand to the Caribbean region would be affected. A sensitivity analysis that included 18 scenarios with different combinations of three GHG mitigation policy scenarios for aviation (represented by varied carbon prices), two oil price projections, and three price elasticity estimates was conducted to examine the impact on air travel arrivals from eight outbound market nations to the Caribbean region. Pentelow and Scott (2010) concluded that a combination of low carbon price and low oil price would have very little impact on arrivals growth to the Caribbean region through to 2020, with arrivals 1.28% to 1.84% lower than in the BAU scenario (the range attributed to the price elasticities chosen). The impact of a high carbon price and high oil price scenario was more substantive, with arrivals 2.97% to 4.29% lower than the 2020 BAU scenario depending on the price elasticity value used. The study concluded: It is important to emphasise that the number of arrivals to the region would still be projected to grow from between 19.7 million to 19.9 million in 2010 to a range of 30.1 million to 31.0 million in 2020 (Source: Pentelow and Scott, 2010). A detailed case study of Jamaica further revealed the different sensitivity of market segments (package vacations) to climate policy and oil price related rises in air travel costs (Pentelow and Scott, 2010; see also Schiff and Becken, 2010 for a New Zealand study of price elasticities). Pentelow and Scott (2010) concluded that further research is required to understand the implications of oil price volatility and climate policy for tourist mobility, tour operator routing and the longer term risks to tourism development in the Caribbean. Overall, current frameworks to mitigate GHG emissions from aviation do not seem to represent a substantial threat to tourism development (Mayor and Tol, 2007; Gössling et al., 2008; Rothengatter, 2009), but new regulatory regimes and market based instruments to reduce emissions in line with global policy objectives would cause changes in the global tourism system that could affect in particular SIDS. To anticipate these changes and to prepare the vulnerable tourism economies in the Caribbean to these changes should thus be a key management goal for tourism stakeholders. Climate change impacts on energy generation, distribution and infrastructure A report on the potential impacts of climate change on the energy sector published by the U.S. Department of Energy distinguishes between direct impacts which affect energy resource availability, fuel and power production, transmission and distribution processes; and indirect impacts which are brought on by other sectors through forward or reverse linkages with the energy sector, and may include competition for shared resources, trends in demand and supply and pricing. These impacts are not only limited to traditional (fossil fuel based) energy systems but renewable systems as well. While direct impacts are more 51

93 visible, the costs of indirect impacts can be difficult to quantify and often exceed those of direct impacts, given the inter-relationships between energy and other sectors (U.S. Department of Energy/National Energy Technology Laboratory, 2007). Similarly, Contreras-Lisperguer and de Cuba (2008) have outlined a number of potential impacts of climate change on both traditional and renewable energy systems, with varying consequences for energy production and transmission efficiency, energy prices and trends in demand and consumption. The Dominican Republic energy infrastructure is comprised of both large (e.g. electricity generation facilities, transmission stations and lines, and storage facilities) and small (e.g. solar panels) scale equipment given the mixture of fossil fuel and renewable energy systems present. Potential physical climate change impacts specific to traditional energy production systems as well as the renewable technologies being considered utilised are outlined below. Special consideration should be given to the physical impacts of climate change that can affect these systems in the planning process. As the Dominican Republic lies within the Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Belt, an increase in the intensity (and possibly frequency) of severe low pressure systems, such as hurricanes, has the potential to affect both traditional and renewable energy production and distribution infrastructure, including generating plants, transmission lines, and pipelines. The energy-based infrastructure in the Dominican Republic is therefore vulnerable to impacts from tropical storms and hurricanes during any given year. Some of the more vulnerable components of the energy system include transmission lines, poles and other relatively light, above ground infrastructure, which can suffer significant damage from high winds. For wind turbines specifically, modern turbines stop rotating when wind speed exceeds approximately 55 mph to protect the equipment, and the structures are typically designed to withstand winds in excess of 150 mph. Other installations are designed to be winched down in the event of an approaching hurricane. In the aftermath of extreme weather, the process of restoring transmission and proper operation of generating facilities depends on road access and the amount of supplies available to replace infrastructure components that have been damaged or destroyed. The vulnerability of the sector to extreme weather events therefore has even greater implications for increasing the recovery period and extending the loss of productivity in all other sectors within the country following an event (U.S. Department of Energy/National Energy Technology Laboratory, 2007; IPCC, 2007b; Contreras-Lisperguer & de Cuba, 2008). Model projections for the Dominican Republic, as with all of the other Caribbean territories suggest an increase in mean annual temperatures, as well as the number of hot days and nights to as much as 90% of the days per year by 2080, and a possible disappearance of cold nights (see Climate Modelling Section). National energy demand and consumption for heating and cooling purposes may therefore rise in response to increasing extremes in diurnal temperatures. Higher temperatures have also been shown to reduce the efficiency of energy generation at thermal power plants, and currently the bulk of electricity generation in the Dominican Republic is done using thermal systems (steam, diesel, gas and combine system generators). The climate modelling projections also indicate a decrease in mean annual rainfall, (although these predictions are more uncertain than temperature changes) which may affect water availability for noncontact cooling of power generators (Contreras-Lisperguer & de Cuba, 2008). Similar impacts are likely to apply to biomass systems. Alternative energy sources, while they are environmentally more sustainable, also face challenges from climate variability. Wind is generated by temperature gradients which result from differential heating of the earth s surface. Based on this relationship, changes in spatial temperature gradients caused by land use change, reductions in solar incidence and changes in atmospheric circulation can be argued to result in wind pattern shifts and therefore wind energy potential. However, based on these assumptions, wind and 52

94 solar energy potential can increase significantly based on climate projections. Climate models indicate different future trends in wind speed for the Dominican Republic which project that current patterns remain unchanged, or that wind speeds may increase in all seasons except the DJF season (see Climate Modelling Section). Based on this projection, an increase in average wind speed could ultimately improve electricity generation from wind. Similarly, changes in solar radiation incidence and increases in temperature can impact the effectiveness of electrical generation by photovoltaic cells and solar thermal energy collection. The projected increase in the number of sunshine hours for the Dominican Republic over the next few decades increases the viability of using photovoltaic technology even if only on the basis of increasing incidence of sunshine (IPCC, 2007b; Contreras-Lisperguer & de Cuba, 2008). Climate change, ocean based impacts on the energy system include storm surge events and SLR. These processes are a threat primarily to infrastructure located within the coastal zone, and within the impact range of these events. Power generating stations and other major infrastructure located on the coastline are therefore highly vulnerable to impacts resulting from SLR and storm induced surges, and there are a number of electricity generating plants on the Dominican Republic s north, east and south coasts. The likelihood of climate change impacting on energy systems will vary. However, an assessment of the vulnerability of the Dominican Republic s systems should be prioritised, especially in the case of renewable energy sources that are being planned and which depend on specific climate parameters and priority coastal infrastructure such as power plants. 53

95 4.3. Agriculture and Food Security Background Climate change related impacts on agriculture have in recent times been the focus of discussion and research on an international level. It is anticipated that climatic change will diminish agricultural potentials in some regions thereby affecting the global food system. The IAASTD Global Report (International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development, 2009) stresses the need to adopt a more practical approach to agricultural research that requires participation from farmers who hold the traditional knowledge in food production. This research examines the relationship between agriculture and tourism within the framework of climate change, and seeks to develop adaptations options to support national food security based on experience and knowledge gained from local small scale farmers and agricultural technicians. The study is exploratory in nature and the findings will be assimilated to develop national and regional projects that promote climate conscious farms and sustainable food production in the Caribbean The Importance of Agriculture to National Development The Ministry of Agriculture of the Dominican Republic (2010) acknowledges that the agricultural sector plays an important role in national food security, since, according to FAO estimates, it produces about 80% of the food demanded by the population of over 10 million Dominicans, approximately one million Haitians and 3 million tourists per year. The agricultural sector is also the main contributor of raw materials for agroindustry and creates significant cross-links that impact positively on employment and income generation in other areas of the economy. According to data presented by the Report on the State of World Food Insecurity 2009, the Dominican Republic has substantially reduced the percentage of under-nourished nationals in the past two decades, from 27% in 1990 to 21% in the period owing to the positive performance in the agricultural sector. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the sector contributes about 6% of GDP and generates more than 500,000 jobs. Agriculture also generates about 11% of foreign exchange earnings received by the country. Despite the international food crisis and the increase in input costs, the Dominican Republic has maintained a stable production of rice, plantains, cassava, sweet potatoes, yams, taro, pumpkin, vegetables, chicken, pork, beef and eggs (Ministerio de Agricultura, 2011a) An Analysis of the Agricultural Sector in the Dominican Republic Records from the Ministry of Agriculture of the Dominican Republic (2011b) indicate that the production levels of 26 of the 30 most important agricultural food products grew by 53.66% in The products with highest consumption are rice, bananas, beans, onions, potatoes, milk, pork and chicken. The report prepared by the agricultural economics department of the Ministry of Agriculture revealed that banana production recorded 30 million units in 2010 compared to 19 million in 2004; cassava production in 2010 produced four million units compared with one million in 2004; and cocoa recorded an increase in productivity of 1.28 million units in 2010 compared to 1.04 units in The Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (2010) attributes this performance to the adoption of a set of measures and actions taken by the Dominican Government since in 2009 through the 54

96 Ministry of Agriculture, Agricultural Bank, the IDIAF and other institutions linked to the agricultural sector. Among them are the strengthening of health and food safety, which has allowed obtaining higher quality items, the mass production of vegetables under controlled environment (greenhouse), the provision of agricultural seeds and access to funding. These actions have inspired growth in all constituent activities: rice (9%), traditional export crops (4.5%), other agricultural crops (35.7%) and livestock, forestry and fishing (4.25%). The cocoa subsector has broken its own record production and exports for four consecutive years (Ministerio de Agricultura, 2011c). In the Dominican Republic exported US $44.5 million of worth of cocoa, while for the cocoa season ending September 2011; a total of US $190 million was placed on the international market, representing growth of 327%. The increase in cocoa production in recent years has been maintained as a result of better care for the plantations, increased interest of farmers for cocoa production and productivity based on clones of high genetic quality. Additionally, as a measure to improve the quality of cocoa, the Ministry of Agriculture bought a farm in Hato Mayor where they plan to install a germplasm center which will allow cultivation of cocoa plants of optimal quality Women and Youth in Dominican Republican Agriculture An IDB-funded report on agriculture in the Dominican Republic (Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación, 2004) observes that the participation of women in the labour market is very small, representing only 4% of the economically active in agriculture. Various measures have been taken to increase participation of women in productive activities especially facilitating the acquisition of parcels of land and access to funds from the Agricultural Credit Bank. The Confederación Campesina Dominicana (CCD) (Dominican Peasant Confederation) consists of several groups of women farmers scattered around rural areas in the country who have organised themselves to advance domestic production of passion fruit, cassava, pumpkin, cocoa, beans, rice, bananas, and other products. Their focus is on organic methods of production with support from the Ministry of Agriculture. In terms of youth involvement, there is an ongoing program which started in 1999 called República Dominicana Programa de Formación de Jóvenes Agricultores (Training of Young Farmers) the objective of which is to train a minimum of sixty (60) rural youth each year in farm management practices through private farm internships Climate Change Related Issues and Agricultural Vulnerability in the Dominican Republic Agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts in the Dominican Republic, especially storms. In 1998 Hurricane Mitch caused total crop losses totalling US $278 million, where one third of the area planted with crops was destroyed. Tropical storm Noel, which hit the Dominican Republic s shores in October 2007, is thought to have destroyed the entire plantain and vegetable crops in some areas of the country (World Bank, 2009). The country s agricultural sector is also susceptible to drought and floods. An analysis of disaster risks and vulnerability in the Dominican Republic (Gómez de Travesedo, N. & Saenz Ramírez, P., 2009) shows that the provinces with the highest vulnerability for agricultural drought are Jimaní, Pedernales, San Juan, Santiago Rodriguez Barahona, Santiago de los Caballeros, Mao, Azua, San José de Ocoa, Bani and San Cristobal. The region most affected by agricultural drought is the south, followed by southwest, north central, the north, northwest and the east. 55

97 Figure 4.3.1: Map Showing Areas Most Vulnerable to Drought Dominican Republic (Source: Gómez de Travesedo & Saenz Ramírez, 2009) A UNDP-funded (2005) study on agricultural drought in the Dominican Republic confirms that drought is a cyclical natural phenomenon and it creates problems of water shortages for irrigation of crops, food shortages, livestock deaths and increased disease-causing vectors. The average period of drought is six months and after this period farmers commonly experienced storms and floods which further affects agricultural production in the regions studied. For the evaluation of climate impact on national agricultural crops, Vega (2001) used the WOFOST biophysical model created in the Center for World Food which includes the physiological response of crops to climate and soil parameters, simulating the processes of photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration and translocation of carbohydrates, as well as the phenological development of plants. The study evaluated only crops classified as major crops in the Dominican Republic. The results for the impact of climate change on potato showed that the negative impact was due to a decrease in the intensity of photosynthesis but a significant portion of this effect is based on the uncontrolled timing for planting tubers. The potential yields of rice, without taking into account the effect of CO 2 fertilisation, decreased in all future scenarios while their water needs also decreased given their lower leaf development and shorter production cycle. Vega (2001) emphasises that this result should not be interpreted as water required for cultivation decreased, on the contrary it increases due to greater potential evapotranspiration in projected climate scenarios. The fertile valley of San Juan de la Maguana in the Dominican Republic has lost some of its production capacity on account of several tropical storms. The San Juan Valley, which is referred to as the "breadbasket of the South" no longer produces as many beans or as much rice as before because following 56

98 the storms, several river systems such as the San Juan, Yaque del Sur, Sabaneta, Macasías and Millet rivers have overflowed causing dozens of bean and rice producers to abandon their farms Vulnerability Enhancing Factors: Agriculture, Land Use and Soil Degradation in the Dominican Republic Research conducted by Gómez de Travesedo and Saenz Ramírez (2009) indicates that in recent decades, the area of land under cultivation in the Dominican Republic has decreased by 29%, having gone from 2.7 to 1.9 million hectares. Land under permanent cultivation consists of the following crops: 24% rice, 17% to fruits and vegetables and 16% to traditional export crops such as sugar, cocoa, and coffee. The number of acres of land under cultivation for traditional export products has suffered in recent years specifically from 1998, the year of Hurricane Georges. The distribution of crops by region does not occur evenly: Root crops are found in all regions. Leguminous crops are confined to the southeast which produces 58% of all crops. Rice acreage is distributed in three regions (northeast, northwest and north central). Corn, nearly 46% is concentrated in the southeast region. Cocoa 53% is cultivated in the northeast. In the case of coffee production, the distribution is more homogeneous, being present in five regions with percentages. The World Bank (2009) map below gives an indication of the environmental constraints related to agricultural potential by geographic area in the Dominican Republic. 57

99 Figure 4.3.2: Baseline map: Current Major Environmental Constraints related to Agricultural Potential (Source: World Bank, 2009) A study by the Department of Environmental and Natural Resources of the Dominican Republic (DIARENA) of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARENA) (SEMARENA, 2005) reports that 15% of the country's soils are being overused and therefore subject to degradation or loss of physical, chemical and biological characteristics that determine their properties. These lands are concentrated in mountain areas with steep slopes and soils under intensive without good conservation practices. The areas with the most fertile soils in the Dominican Republic are distributed in flat and undulating areas such as in the valleys of San Juan de la Maguana and Cibao, among others. However, most of these soils are not well protected. According to this study the main vulnerability enhancing factors for soil erosion are: i. The elimination of permanent vegetation cover (deforestation) of some soils located on slopes and areas of intensive agriculture development in them. ii. Construction of highways and roads without proper protection. iii. The mining operations that move large amounts of land and destabilise large areas. A second vulnerability enhancing factor for land degradation is poor farm management practices which are evident in Yaque del Norte and the Neyba Valley area. The Dominican Republic (DIARENA) of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARENA) (SEMARENA, 2005) observe that the soil quality in these areas has been strongly affected by unsustainable water management and high pollution from overuse of agrochemicals, which in turn cause reduced salinisation and soil microbial life. Ramos (2010) concurs that the major causes for land degradation in the Dominican Republic are due to lack of conservation practices such as misuse of soil slopes, overgrazing, slash and burn agriculture, improper irrigation practices, poor soil tillage, and unregulated extraction of materials. 58

100 Social Vulnerability of Agricultural Communities in the Dominican Republic The social vulnerability of agricultural communities in the Dominican Republic was recently exposed with the flooding of Lake Enriquillo as large expanses of agricultural land and livestock located in Cordgrass, the Duvergé Township, Bartholomew and, Jimani were left under lake waters. The Ministry of Agriculture (2011d) has had to relocate 500 families and prepare to secure more than 24,000 jobs for these agricultural and farming communities as a result of this event. The World Bank (2009) suggests that because many people in the Dominican Republic in rural areas derive their livelihoods from agriculture, they can be disproportionately affected by changes in climate. Their analysis estimates that about 33.2% of the population lives in rural areas; small scale and landless farmers in the border region with Haiti, along with seasonal migrant workers from Haiti, are among the poorest and most vulnerable rural residents. Their vulnerability stems mostly from lack of productive assets, scarce social and productive infrastructure, limited employment opportunities, natural disasters in addition to prejudice and exclusion. Additionally, the seasonal nature of coffee production, one of the main cash crops in the country, contributes to livelihood insecurity of coffee producers during the off season. This analysis is congruent with the findings of a study conducted by Godínez and Máttar (2009) which showed that the levels of food insecurity amongst people who live in the mountains is worse than the average rural Dominican Republic. This population along the mountainous border with Haiti is the most deprived rural area, with the highest number of very small agricultural producers with low levels of production and little organised commercial activity Economic Vulnerability: Climate Change & Agricultural Outputs in the Dominican Republic The World Bank (2009) recounts that in recent years (between 2001 and 2008), storms and floods have had the highest economic impact in the Dominican Republic, with losses for the period averaging at 0.83% of GDP, six storms have incurred damages reaching US $459 million and four flooding events have cost damages reaching US $45 million. The primary economic vulnerability feature is the enormous losses in agricultural investment caused by extreme weather events. In August 2011 Hurricane Irene razed all the produce on farms located in the agricultural municipalities of Padre de Casas, Guayabal, Las Lagunas, La Siembra, Botoncillo, Botella, Vallecito, Gajo de Monte, and Las Cañitas. These areas were planted with rice, bananas, eggplant, peppers, pigeon peas, cassava, lemons, avocados, and other crops. Farmers from these areas also lost buildings, machinery, and sustained damages to irrigation pipes. A second vulnerability factor is the propensity for drought to increase the production costs of foods for domestic consumption. Fruit and vegetable producers especially demand more water during periods of drought because the lack of rain increases the need to use irrigation systems. The associated energy prices to maintain the quality of production increases the overall cost of outputs. The following diagram shows the most important crops for the Dominican Republic based on data acquired from the Ministry of Agriculture Department of Monitoring, Control and Evaluation, and Department of Cacao. 59

101 Export Products: sugar cane, tobacco, coffee, cocoa Cereals: rice, corn, sorghum Legumes: red bean, black bean, white bean, pigeon peas Fruits: sweet orange, pineapple, avocado, chinola Roots and tubers: sweet potatoes, white potatoes, yellow yam, cassava Bananas: Green, yellow, plantain Vegetables: onions, garlic, tomatoes, peppers, eggplant, squash Livestock: beef, pork, chicken, milk, eggs Figure 4.3.3: Major Agricultural Products Dominican Republic (Source: Ministerio de Agricultura: Departamento de Seguimiento, Control y Evaluación, y Departamento de Cacao, 2011) Undoubtedly, the Dominican Republic exhibits a high level of national food security. However, climate change represents a potential threat to agricultural production and adaptation measures need to be developed concurrently with other sectors such as biodiversity, water resources and energy that are similarly affected. 60

102 4.4. Human Health Background The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) defines health as including physical, social and psychological wellbeing (Confalonieri et al., 2007). An understanding of the impacts of climate change on human health is important because of its impact on the livelihoods of the people on a local scale and to the economy on a national level. In endemic countries, the environmental and social conditions make particular populations vulnerable to further disease outbreaks. Climate change has the potential to further reduce the quality of the environment and the resilience of the ecosystems to respond to these increased risks of disease outbreaks or epidemics. Health is an important issue in the tourism industry because tourists are susceptible to acquiring diseases transmitted by insect vectors. In addition, air travel is responsible for a large number of diseases which are carried from tourist destinations to Europe (Gössling, 2005) and elsewhere in the world. This is highly relevant when one considers that approximately 75% of travellers become ill while abroad, most often from infectious diseases; morbidity is most often due to diarrhoea or respiratory infections (Sanford, 2004). It is also important because it can have consequences for tourist destination demand which is a significant contributor to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Small Island Developing States (SIDS). The potential effects of climate change on public health can be direct or indirect (Confalonieri et al., 2007; Ebi, et al., 2006; Patz, et al., 2000). Direct effects include those associated with extreme weather events such as heat stress, changes in precipitation, SLR and natural disasters or more frequent extreme weather events. While indirect effects are associated with changes in the environment and ecosystem and various sectors such as water, agriculture and the economy on a whole (Confalonieri et al., 2007). Both direct and indirect effects include the impact of climate change on the natural environment and can affect food security and agriculture sector, and increase the susceptibility of populations to respiratory diseases and food- and water-borne related diseases (Confalonieri et al., 2007; Githeko and Woodward, 2003; Patz et al., 2000; Taylor et al., 2009). In the Dominican Republic Initial Communication to the UNFCCC, the health sector was one of four sectors (water resources, marine coastal resources and agriculture) assessed in relation to climate scenarios. The main focus of discussion was on malaria (SEMARENA, 2003). While dengue fever was not mentioned in the Initial National Communication, it was discussed along with malaria in the Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (SEMARENA, 2009). No other diseases were specifically outlined, partly due to the overwhelming burden dengue and malaria place on the country. Projections indicate the potential for increase in both diseases in 2012 and The report also highlights that in a 2006 health assessment, under reporting of mortality and morbidity cases ranged between 45 and 55%. However, other diseases such as respiratory illnesses and diarrhoea have figured prominently, particularly in paediatric morbidity and mortality cases in the past (Thind and Anderson, 2003). Therefore, other possible direct and indirect impacts on the health sector, with particular emphasis on infectious diseases, will be explored below. 61

103 Table 4.4.1: Selected statistics relevant to the Health Sector of the Dominican Republic Population 9,755,954(2010) 1 Unemployment rate 17.9% (2005)2 Poverty rate 62% (2003)2 Expenditure on Public Health 5.9% of GDP (2009)3 Life Expectancy at Birth 72.8yrs (2010)4 Birth rate (per 1,000) 23.3(2005)2 Death rate (per 1,000) 5.7(2005)2 Beds occupancy (10,000) 14.4(2009)1 (Source: Ministerio de Salud Publica, , PAHO, 2007b 2, WHO, , UNDP, ) Direct Impacts Weather Related Mortality and Morbidity Mortality and morbidity rates due to injuries sustained during natural disasters such as hurricanes, tropical storms and floods are important considerations when assessing the vulnerability of a country to climate change. In the Dominican Republic, over 75% of the population lives in areas that are at risk to emergencies and natural disasters (PAHO, 2007b). Floods present the greatest threat to human populations, particularly in the Yaque del Norte, Yaque del Sur, Yuna, and Soco rivers, as well as riverbanks in cities areas of Santo Domingo and Santiago (PAHO, 2007b). Two major health problems associated with natural disasters in the country are acute respiratory infections and acute diarrheic diseases. Hurricanes also present a serious threat. Between 1987 and 1996 there were 48 storms and hurricanes in the Dominican Republic, that is, approximately 6 hurricanes per year (Government of the Dominican SEMARENA, 2003). Hurricanes David (1979), George (1998), and Jeanne (2004) are three major events that have affected housing, infrastructure and lives of the people of the country (PAHO, 2007b). Hurricane George caused 235 dead, 595 wounded and 59 missing (SEMARENA, 2003). Physical and capital damage to health facilities may also arise due to a natural disaster as was also the case after Hurricane George damaging infrastructure such as hospitals and schools and more than 100,000 homes were affected. The damage was so severe it was estimated to cost roughly 14% of the country s GDP (SEMARENA, 2003). Displacement of persons and loss of shelter are also important because of the associated mental and physical health implications. From observed data, North Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms appear to have increased in intensity during the last 30 years and modelling projections indicate that the trend is expected to continue in the future, specifically due to intensification of weather phenomena rather than increases in frequency (See section 3 Climate Modelling). Increased temperature and the effect of heat Increasing temperatures can result in heat stress in a population and heat wave events have been found to be associated with short term increases in mortality globally (Confalonieri et al., 2007) as well as morbidity related to heat exhaustion and dehydration (Hajat et al., 2010; Sanford, 2004). The elderly and young are more susceptible than other groups as well as persons with chronic illnesses, people doing manual labour and persons who gain their livelihood outdoors, e.g. construction workers and fishermen. Increased temperatures can have a negative impact on persons prone to, or suffering from, cardiovascular diseases (Cheng and Su, 2010; Worfolk, 2000) which could be exacerbated by prolonged exposure. 62

104 In terms of tourism this will be an important consideration for the elderly travel enthusiasts when choosing destinations. Exposure to higher temperatures can also contribute to increases in skin diseases (Confalonieri et al., 2007). While temperature may be considered a positive determinant of visitor demands it should be noted that on one hand cooler temperate destinations tend to become more attractive as temperature increases, but warm tropical destinations become less attractive (Hamilton and Tol, 2004). However, the reverse may be also true depending on the destination. It is uncertain at what temperature threshold such scenarios will affect Caribbean destinations such as the Dominican Republic Indirect Impacts Increase in Vector Borne Diseases Vector borne diseases, particularly malaria and dengue fever constitute a major health problem related to communicable diseases in the Dominican Republic (SEMARENA, 2009). For mosquito vectors, (Hales et al. 2002) summarises mosquitoes require standing water to breed, and a warm ambient temperature is critical to adult feeding behaviour and mortality, the rate of larval development, and speed of virus replication. Of course climate is not the only important factor in the successful transmission of disease, other factors include the disease source, the vector and a human population (Hales et al., 2002). Another important consideration for public health is that incurred from the tourism industry. In 2010, there were 4,124,543 tourist arrivals in the Dominican Republic (CTO, 2011). Additionally migrant workers, who are attracted to the country to work either directly in tourism or indirectly such as in the construction industry, which often has a direct focus on building hotels and related industry, should be mentioned here. For example, in the Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC, in a study of dengue cases in a 5 year period prior to its publication in 2003, it was found that only 50% of malaria cases were Dominican patients (SEMARENA, 2003). This influx of people from non-endemic areas represents a susceptible population to vector-borne disease infections once conditions in the country become more favourable for their disease transmission. Indeed, United States visitors reported cases of dengue upon returning from the Dominican Republic as recently as Malaria Malaria is a vector-borne disease which is believed to be sensitive to climate change (Githeko et al., 2003; Martens et al., 2007). The Dominican Republic has a long history with malaria, as it has been one of the main causes of morbidity and mortality in the country (SEMARENA, 2003). Its incidence is limited to rural and suburban areas and often exhibits a surge of reported cases following natural disasters (PAHO, 2007b). These areas where the majority of cases have been reported, particularly in the last 10 years, span 34 municipalities in 6 provinces; an area that constitutes 10% of the population (SEMARENA, 2003). Outbreaks often occur in non-endemic tourism focused provinces due to the large migrant of workers from areas of the country where malaria transmission is endemic (SEMARENA, 2003). In a study of malaria in the Caribbean, 4 of the 29 species of Anopheles the mosquito responsible for the spread of malaria present in the region were identified in the Dominican Republic (Rawlins et al., 2008). Naturally occurring high precipitation events, particularly hurricanes, are an important factor in triggering increases in the transmission of malaria (PAHO, 2007b). Studies have also linked higher temperatures and higher humidity with the epidemiological pattern of malaria (SEMARENA, 2003). There are two main areas of transmission; in the east sub-region of Yuma, the country s high incidences are in sugar cane areas or areas with intensive construction often associated with the tourism industry and in the north west subregion of Cibao where there is rice cultivation and cultivation of other crops that result in seasonal 63

105 migration of manual labour (SEMARENA, 2003). This presents the threat of malaria if conditions become more suitable for the Anopheles to breed. At present, the World Health Organization has classified the progress of the Dominican Republic in reducing the number of cases of malaria between 2000 and 2009 as having limited evidence of decrease (WHO, 2010c). However, Table shows the number of reported cases of malaria between 2000 and The highest incidence of cases occurred in 2005 (75% of cases were from rural areas) (PAHO, 2007b) with a subsequent consistent decline between 2006 to The cause of this reduction is uncertain (WHO, 2010a). Table 4.4.2: Confirmed malaria cases and deaths in the Dominican Republic between 2000 and 2009 Year No. cases 1,233 1,038 1,296 1,529 2,355 3,837 3,525 2,711 1,840 1,643 No. deaths (Source: WHO, 2010a) Additionally, at least one study has found that malaria is the most common cause of fever among tourists upon returning from travel in infected areas (Wichmann et al., 2003). Additionally, it should be highlighted here that malaria is the most reported cause of hospitalisations in tourists from malaria prone destinations (Wilder-Smith and Schwartz, 2005). Dengue Fever Dengue fever is the most important arboviral disease transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquitoes to humans, and exists in tropical and subtropical countries worldwide (Gubler, 2002; Patz et al., 2000; Rigau- Pérez et al., 1998). The Dominican Republic presents a unique situation with the presence of two vectors, A aegypti and A. albopictus (Pena et al., 2003). Population growth, urbanisation and modern transportation are believed to have contributed to its resurgence in recent times (Gubler, 2002). It has been shown that dengue fever transmission is altered by increases in temperature and rainfall (Hales et al., 1996) but further research on the association between these two variables is needed. Both from modelled data and observations, it has also been found that changes in climate determine the geographical boundaries of dengue fever (Epstein, 2001; Epstein et al., 1998; Hales et al., 2002; Hsieh and Chen, 2009; Martens et al., 2007; Patz et al., 2000). The tropical climate and humidity provide suitable conditions for the transmission of dengue by Aedes aegypti and Ae albopictus. Dengue is endemic to the Dominican Republic (Penson, 2006). In 2002, which was an epidemic year, the rate of dengue fever occurrence was 37.6 per 1,000 inhabitants in the Dominican Republic while countries such as Honduras with and Trinidad and Tobago persons, had the highest incidence of dengue fever in the Americas (Penson, 2006). It was however double that figure in 2003, with 73 per 1,000 inhabitants (Penson, 2006). Areas with the highest cases of dengue fever include Santo Domingo, San Cristóbal, Distrito Nacional and Santiago (Ministerio de Salud Publica, 2011). After natural disasters dengue fever cases usually rise in the country because conditions become suitable for the growth and spread of the vectors and the transmission of the virus occurs (PAHO, 2007b). 64

106 Table 4.4.3: Cases of dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever between in the Dominican Republic Year No. dengue cases 6,268 2,473 2,977 6,243 9,639 4,656 8,273 12,119 Rate per 100,000 inhabitants No. cases dengue haemorrhagic No of deaths (Source: PAHO, 2007b; Ministerio de Salud Publica, 2011) Dengue fever is endemic to the Caribbean region and is thus a major public health problem which can affect both locals and tourists (Castle et al., 1999; Pinheiro and Corber, 1997; Wichmann et al., 2003). (Allwinn et al. 2008) have found that the risk to travellers has been underestimated. In fact it is the second most reported disease of tourists returning from tropical destinations (Wilder-Smith and Schwartz, 2005) and air travel has been linked with its spread (Jelinek, 2000). This vector-borne disease has affected the region since as early as the 1800s (Pinheiro and Corber, 1997). The economic, social and environmental factors can also affect the occurrence and transmission of the disease (Hopp and Foley, 2001). In Jamaica, (Chadee et al. 2009) found that large storage drums used during dry spells and drought conditions were the main breeding sites of the vector, Aedes aegypti. It accounted for a third of their breeding sites. Traditional targets of source reduction in Jamaica, i.e. small miscellaneous containers, were found to contain negligible numbers of pupae. However, if drought conditions become commonplace in the future due to climate change the use of large water storage drums may be used and thus may provide suitable breeding sites for the vector Aedes aegypti. Leptospirosis Aside from mosquito vectors, rodents present a health threat due to their ability to harbour and spread diseases. Flood waters contaminated with faecal matter and urine from infected rats is often associated with, and is one of the main causes of leptospirosis outbreaks and spread (Gubler et al., 2001; Hales et al., 2002; Moreno, 2006; Sachan and Singh, 2010). The likelihood of these events are difficult to predict because while rainfall patterns are expected to decrease, storms and hurricanes can dump high volumes of water in short time frames, creating suitable conditions for rodent infestation. One disease of note that is transmitted by rodents is leptospirosis. (Gubler et al. 2001) define leptospirosis as an acute febrile infection caused by bacterial species of Leptospira that affect the liver and kidneys. Leptospirosis incidence has been associated with male agricultural workers in the age range of old. Deaths due to leptospirosis do occur and provinces where the diseases have been reported include Santiago, the Districto Nacional, Espaillat, Puerto Plata and Santo Domingo (Ministerio de Salud Publica, 2011). 65

107 Table 4.4.4: Leptospirosis cases in recent years in the Dominican Republic Year 2004* 2005* 2006* 2007* 2008** 2009** 2010** No. cases , No. deaths *Suspected cases Drought, air quality and respiratory illnesses **Possible cases (Source: Ministerio de Salud Publica, 2011) In the Dominican Republic droughts are either natural or are associated with poor water resource management in vulnerable catchment areas (PAHO, 2007b). Winds, dry spells and drought conditions can increase particulate matter in the air, compromising air quality. Currently the particulate matter pollution is becoming an increasing concern in the country. This has resulted in acute respiratory infections becoming an important cause of morbidity cases, as PAHO (2007b) summaries In 2005, acute respiratory infections were the main cause of outpatient consultation by the general public; in , they were among the five leading causes of death. Every year, between 6,000 and 10,000 cases are reported each week. In 2002, acute respiratory infections accounted for 80% of morbidity among the population. This in turn can exacerbate or trigger attacks among persons with respiratory illnesses and can create new respiratory problems among susceptible persons. Increased incidence of asthma, influenza, respiratory diseases and acute respiratory infections due to increases in particulate air pollutants and changing air composition have been identified in the Inter-governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment for the Health Sector (Confalonieri et al., 2007). Low incidence of diphtheria cases (31 per year between ) have also been reported in the Dominican Republic (SEMARENA, 2009) but considering that Haiti has had outbreaks of the disease in 2004, 2005 and 2009 (WHO, 2010b), continued surveillance and vaccination should be undertaken. Analysis of disease data for asthma, bronchitis and respiratory infections shows that there is seasonal variability in the island of Saint Lucia (Amarakoon et al., 2004). Risk factors or variables that affect incidence of these diseases include temperature, relative humidity and Sahara Dust. Other diseases of relevance are chronic lower respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia. Studies on the Dominican Republic may result in similar outcomes. Air quality can also be affected by Saharan dust which travels across the Atlantic to the Caribbean annually. Saharan dust flows may increase during warmer summer months due to atmospheric circulation patterns increasing in strength, thereby bringing greater volumes of particulate matter towards St. Lucia (Amarakoon et al., 2004) and possibly by extension other Caribbean countries such as the Dominican Republic. If air quality can have such an impact on the health of the local population it is reasonable expect that similar effects may be suffered by travellers (Sanford, 2004) particularly those with respiratory diseases and those with pulmonary and cardiac diseases. Further, these identified risk factors together normal and expected urbanisation and industrialisation can further create conditions for an increase in the incidence of ARI in the Dominican Republic and by extension the rest of the Caribbean region. 66

108 Water Supply, sanitation and associated diseases Increased precipitation may also result in contamination of large areas with raw sewage especially from overflowing pit latrines. In the Dominican Republic there are water quality concerns due to pollution from human and animal wastes as well as from fertilisers and other sources. Solid waste disposal involves the use of unlined pits and this further compromises water quality in areas where the underlying rock is permeable (PAHO, 2007b; SEMARENA, 2009; USACE, 2002). This can result in an increase in water-related diseases which can have consequences for health of local populations. The use of streams and river for domestic and recreational use has often raised concerns due to the use of the same locations as sites for human excreta disposal (Schneider et al., 1985). Diseases associated with poor water quality and contamination of water sources in the Dominican Republic include acute diarrhoea, typhoid fever, hepatitis, and paratyphoid fever (USACE, 2002). Developments in the tourism and industrial sectors have contributed to environmental degradation and pollution induced diseases (Juergens et al., 2011). Gastroenteritis and other food-borne diseases are also associated with diarrheal illnesses. Diarrheal illnesses are a major problem in the health sector, particularly in the less than 5 year old age category. It is estimated that between 2,000 and 5,000 cases of diarrhoea are reported each week, each year (PAHO, 2007b). In another Caribbean country, Saint Lucia, studies have shown that diarrheal illnesses show seasonal variability and were significantly associated with temperature and rainfall (Amarakoon et al., 2004). This may be explained by the fact that a reduction in domestic water supplies due to drought conditions can impact water quality and the standard of sanitation, which is a reduction in domestic water supplies and garbage disposal (Moreno, 2006). Water interruptions and shortages due to flooding, but also dry spells and drought conditions, can lead to water shortages and subsequent health problems such as dengue fever as well as a mosquito nuisance. Therefore, emphasis on water and sanitation is critical to public health, which may become even more important because of changes in climate and the associated vulnerabilities that may intensify. Cholera is an example of a disease that proliferates in unsanitary conditions. Cholera is an acute intestinal infection caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholera and is spread by contaminated water and food (CAREC, 2008b). Climate change has been found to be an important factor in the spatial and temporal distribution of cholera (Confalonieri, et al., 2007) and may result in further outbreaks of the disease especially during extreme events and above normal precipitation. In general diarrheal diseases are relevant to the tourism industry because outbreaks often occur in hotels, restaurants, cruise ships and mass gatherings (CAREC, 2008a). Cholera is by far more of a real threat to the Dominican Republic than any other country in the region due to the cholera outbreak that ravaged neighbouring Haiti. As recent as January 2011 there was one reported death due to cholera in the Dominican Republic. In 2010, there were 191 cases and 53 cases in only the first two weeks of January Cases have been detected and reported in 15 of the 31 provinces indicating the seriousness of the scope of the disease (PAHO, 2011). 67

109 Figure 4.4.1: Dominican Republic cholera cumulative incidence rate as of Epidemiological Week 2, 2011 (Source: PAHO, 2011) Schistosomiasis Schistosomiasis is a water-borne disease worth mentioning as it has been identified by the IPCC in the Fourth Assessment report (Confalonieri et al., 2007). Spread by aquatic snails, it is a water related parasitic disease. It exists in the Caribbean having been recorded and researched by (Bundy, 1984) and (Kurup and Hujan, 2010). PAHO (2007a) have estimated that between 20-30% of [people] living in Latin America and the Caribbean are infected with one of several intestinal helminths and/or schistosomiasis. Schistosomiasis is endemic to the Dominican Republic and was considered such a serious health problem that the Center for Eradication of Bilharzia, Universidad Autonoma de Santo Domingo was established in 1970 in the Dominican Republic (Schneider et al., 1985). In 2000, Chitsulo et al. (2000) estimated that just under 60% of the population of the Dominican Republic were at risk to infection from the disease and that 0.23 million people had been infected by Schistosoma mansoni. The threat from the disease may be complicated by movement of persons particularly farm workers between rural and urban centres (Schneider et al., 1985). Areas of highest risk are located in the south eastern provinces and include Hato Mayor, El Seibo and Altagarcia (in the Higüey area) provinces (CNRS-WHO, 1987; IAMAT, 2010; Schneider et al., 1985). The disease is traditionally associated with sugar cane agriculture (Bundy, 1984). In the past suitable habitats for the intermediate host snail for schistosomiasis included marshes, swamps, ponds, and other natural water bodies, irrigation and drainage canals of rice, sugar cane and sisal fields and cultivated land (CNRS-WHO, 1987; Schneider et al., 1985). 68

110 Food security and Malnutrition Changing weather patterns in a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) could have an impact on agricultural productivity if precipitation decreases because farmers depend largely on rainfall for irrigation (Trotman et al., 2009). Not only will food availability and the local economy be affected by a reduction in rainfall but this can affect facets of the national economy because as the population increases further demands for food supply could be made. Food availability could have consequences for the health of the population, particularly the poorest sectors of the society. (Confalonieri et al., 2007) and (Moreno 2006) reported that drought and heat stress could also impact the growth of crops in the field, e.g. heat stress of vegetables. Such conditions can also introduce pests as the resilience of these ecosystems decreases. On the contrary, conditions of high precipitation particularly in short time frames that result in flooding can also significantly affect the agriculture sector. Hurricane George (1998) damaged agricultural lands, irrigation channels and eroded rivers and damaged reservoirs (SEMARENA, 2003). Fisheries resources are threatened by poor land use practices and poor resource management that have depleted coral reef fish stocks and damaged mangrove habitats, which in turn affects fisheries stocks and the ability of fisherman to prosper from this livelihood and live subsistent (Juergens et al., 2011). Food security concerns can also develop into a situation where the most vulnerable are exposed to malnutrition. In the Dominican Republic chronic malnutrition, particularly in the age 5 years and under population, has been a concern affecting around 11% of the population in the late 1990s. Rural populations are more affected than urban populations (PAHO, 2007b). In 2009, 104,442 children under the age of 5 were estimated to be suffering from chronic malnutrition in the country (Ministerio de Salud Publica, 2010). This is identified in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report where under-nutrition, protein energy malnutrition and/or micro-nutrient deficiencies are major contributing factors (Confalonieri et al., 2007). 69

111 4.5. Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries Background The Dominican Republic has a wide variety of ecosystems and landscapes ranging from mountains, rain forests, fertile valleys, coastal plains and fringing coral reefs (DR1, 2010). It also has several offshore islands and cays, as well as many lakes and rivers, 141 coastal lagoons, 19 estuaries, and more than 20 areas with wetlands and mangrove swamps (MENR, 2010). The valleys, plateaus, foothills and mountains of the Dominican Republic are mostly covered in dense moist forests. It boasts the highest point in the Caribbean, Pico Duarte at 3,175 m located in the Cordillera Central mountain range, and the lowest point in the Caribbean, Lake Enriquillo at 46 m below sea level (DR MOT, 2010). The southern coast of the country is the only area lacking forest cover, due to deforestation and urbanisation. The Dominican Republic has about 1,600 km of coastline of which 300 are prime sand beaches, and one of the country s biggest tourist attractions (DR1, 2010). The most significant river is the Yaque del Norte, which stretches 296 km and has watershed of 7,044 km 2. This is one of the four major rivers that drain the Dominican Republic. The other rivers that dot the Dominican Republic are either short or intermittent. There are several small lakes; the only one of any considerable size is the Laguna del Rincon in the Enriquillo Basin (Hispaniola.com, 2010). The other major lake is the Lago Enriquillo, which covers about 265 km 2, which is also the only saline lake in the Caribbean (Haggerty, 1989). The island of Hispaniola is of volcanic origin, and has several important mining deposits. Its varied landscapes and topography has endowed the country with one of the richest levels of biodiversity and endemism in the Caribbean. The Dominican Republic has thus far recorded 9,177 species of vascular and non-vascular plants of which 2,050 species (22.3%) are endemic and 400 species are threatened. Of the threatened plants, 161 species are critically endangered and another 237 species are endangered according to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. A total of 9,682 vertebrate and invertebrate animal species have been reported; insects account for the greater percentage of invertebrate species. Of this total 2,830 species (29.3%) are endemic. Vertebrate animals account for 1,537 species, with 259 endemic. There is a total of 50 threatened animal species - of these 32 are endangered (IN) and 17 species are in critical danger (CR). Fish: 971 species (901 marine 70 fresh water) 28 of the freshwater species are endemic (this is equivalent to 40% level of freshwater fish species endemism a very high level). Birds: 306 registered species, 31 endemic, 6 threatened. Amphibians: 65 total of which 63 (96.92%) endemic and 27 threatened species. Reptiles: 147 total with 133 (90.48%) endemic and 11 threatened. One of the best-known endemic species is the rhinoceros iguana (Cyclura cornuta) see photo below. Of note also, is the fact that the Dominican Republic also has the largest population of seawater crocodile, Crocodylus acutus, which resides in the coastal Lake Enriquillo. Mammals: 48 recorded, 4 endemic all of which are threatened. Arthropods: total of 7,030 with a total of 2,569 endemic species, 2,089 of these endemics are insects. 70

112 Figure 4.5.1: The endemic Rhinoceros Iguana Cyclura cornuta) (Source: Though there has been degradation of the environment, particularly the removal of the moist forests cover over the years, a diverse insular biota still remains that belongs to a large number of taxonomic groups. This unique biodiversity is, however, increasingly threatened by unsustainable agricultural practices, largescale mining, invasive species, wild fires, hunting, over-fishing, and extensive urban and tourism developments. In more recent times the expansion of the tourism industry has placed greater pressure on ecosystem function and species biodiversity, particularly in the coastal areas. Currently there is a development boom on the eastern coast, which includes Punta Cana and Bavaro, as well as the southeast coast at Bayahibe, and Puerto Plata and Samana in the north (FCO, 2011; DR MOT, 2010). All of these stressors are reducing the natural resilience of ecosystems and their ability to adapt to the present and projected changes in climate. Scientists have determined that climate change is the greatest threat to global biodiversity and that SIDS, such as the Dominican Republic, are among the most vulnerable nations to climate change. The aim of this report is to assess the vulnerability of the Dominican Republic s biodiversity to climate change impacts and the country s capacity to adapt to these changes so as to protect its resource base. The following sections examine those ecosystems that are of particular importance to the country s main economic sectors, particularly tourism. 71

113 Figure 4.5.2: Vegetation map of the Dominican Republic Forests The Dominican Republic has 1,585, ha of forest cover, equivalent to 32.89% of the land area, with a wide diversity of vegetative types (Figure 4.5.2). There are four mountain ranges: The Northern Range, whose highest point is Pico Diego de Ocampo at 1,249 m. The Cordillera Central, with the highest peaks in the Dominican Republic and all the Antilles, Pico Duarte, m, and the Pelona, 3,168 m. 72

114 The Cordillera Oriental, whose heights do not exceed 400 m The Sierra de Neiba and south of the Sierra de Bahoruco. Forests have been historically important to the people of the Dominican Republic as a source of both wood and non-wood products, for the regulation of micro-climate, protection from flood waters and cyclonic winds. Forests are essential habitat for the country s rich biodiversity and numerous threatened and endemic species as described above. Slash and burn agriculture, charcoal production, commercial exploitation of lumber and forest fires has resulted in significant levels of deforestation. The rates of deforestation have been estimated at; 351 km 2 /year, with an annual rate of 2.8% between 1981 and km 2 /year with an annual rate of 1.6% between 1990 and km 2 /year in the past 15 years (FAO, 1995 & FAO 1997 in (SEMARENA, 2008). Deforestation in the Dominican Republic has precipitated soil erosion, and led to salinisation of soils as a result of increased evaporation of moisture. Soil erosion is estimated at between 200 and 1,400 tonnes per hectare per year, moving at an interval of 1 to 10 cm of soil thickness (SEMARENA, 2008). Erosion causes sedimentation of rivers, lakes and critical marine habitats, namely coral reefs and seagrass beds, and can also damage mangrove systems. Removal of trees destroys important ecological niches and fragments habitats. For animals that need continuous blocks of habitat in order to feed and reproduce, habitat fragmentation is a major threat. It confines them to smaller spaces where they are subjected to increased competition and limited genetic variability. This effectively reduces the biological richness of the species and the ecosystem. Local threats such as these reduce the resilience of forest ecosystems and reduce the ability of plants and animals to adapt to a rapidly changing climate. Freshwater ecosystems Forested areas of the Dominican Republic are important in maintaining 118 watersheds, including the largest river in the Antilles, the Yaque del Norte, which stretches 296 km and has a basin area of 7,044 km 2. Fresh water resources are important to the Dominican population for drinking water, power generation and irrigation of agricultural lands. They are also critical habitat to a variety of plants and endemic animals; 28 of the 70 species of fish found in local freshwater ecosystems are endemic to the Dominican Republic, and 63 of the 65 species of amphibian are endemic. Of this number, 27 species are threatened. Freshwater fish landings are not usually reported in the national statistics for Dominican Fisheries, however it has been estimated that yield from rivers and reservoirs ranged from 29 kg/ha/year to 75 kg/ha/year in 1985 (Jackson & Marmulla, 2001). River fisheries include finfish, crabs and marine fish that ascend the rivers to spawn. Additionally, the construction of hydroelectric dams created reservoirs that have been stocked with largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) and tilapia. River fish are a source of protein for rural communities, provide income for artisanal and subsistence fishers and have become an important part of the tourism sector as both a source of food and recreation, such as bass fishing. Surface waters are threatened by pollutants, mining of sand and gravel from rivers, damming and diversions of waterways, dredging of canals and deforestation. High levels of erosion resulting from deforestation causes sedimentation of rivers and this in turn has serious impacts on aquatic biodiversity by blocking out essential sunlight, obstructing water flow and causing physical damage and death. The main environmental problem affecting groundwater is the over extraction from aquifers, which has caused 73

115 saltwater intrusion. Infiltration of domestic sewage and irrigation water into groundwater is another concern in the management of national water resources. Beaches The Dominican Republic s coralline base has allowed the formation of 192 sand beaches and 25 dune areas stretched along the coastline. These beaches are not only a key attraction for tourists, but are also important nesting and foraging grounds for shorebirds, endangered sea turtles (Hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata), loggerhead (Caretta caretta), green (Chelonia mydas), and leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea)), coastal vegetation and a myriad of crustaceans, molluscs and microorganisms. Sand dunes function as important reservoirs of sand, habitat for coastal plants and a line of defence for inland areas from erosive high energy waves during storms. In the Dominican Republic beaches are also critical to fishing communities, as most fishing takes place in inshore waters around approximately 200 beach landing sites. The beach at Bahía de las Águilas, in Parque Jaragua, is considered one of the most beautiful and bestpreserved beaches in the country. Each year, the Park reserve receives over 24,000 visitors, mostly Dominican citizens (Wielgus, Cooper, Torres, & Burke, 2010). However urbanisation and coastal development is increasing pressure on this and other beaches and sand dunes. Impermeable structures, erected too close to the shoreline, disrupt the natural cycle of accretion and erosion of sandy beaches and accelerate the rate of erosion of sand. This not only makes beaches less attractive but is also costly and dangerous because reduced beach width allows waves to break further inshore and to wear away at the foundation of homes, resorts and condominiums. An economic evaluation of the coastal ecosystems of the Dominican Republic has estimated that current rates of beach erosion would result in revenue losses to the resorts of $52 $100 million over the next 10 years (Wielgus, Cooper, Torres, & Burke, 2010). SLR (SLR) and increased intensity of extreme weather events will exacerbate this erosion resulting in even greater losses in revenue. Mangroves and coastal wetlands There are 1, km² of natural wetlands in the Dominican Republic including 141 coastal lagoons and 20 areas with mangrove swamps and an additional 4, km ² of manmade wetland areas. Wetlands provide habitat for many of the endemic and threatened species of the Dominican Republic including the only known species of seawater crocodile and the endangered West Indian Manatee. Many of the avian species that have given the Dominican Republic the designation of Important Bird Area (IBA) rely on wetlands for roosting, nesting and feeding. Mangroves provide a myriad of benefits to humans by protecting their physical environment. Their roots contribute to soil stability by encouraging sedimentation and reducing erosion of the coastline. These biomes are significant to the subsistence, commercial and sports fisheries of the Dominican Republic as they provide nurseries and habitat for juvenile finfish and lobster. Many species of crab are caught in mangrove areas. The blue land crab (Cardisoma guanhumi; paloma de cueva), swamp ghost crab (Ucides cordatus; zumbá) and black mountain crab (Gecarcinus ruricola; cangrejo moro), are the targeted species with 2003 catches of 77.83, 28.49, and tonnes, respectively (Herrera, Betancourt, Silva, Lamelas, & Melo, 2011). Mangrove forests are found along 377 km of the country s coastline forming a natural defence against the high energy waves and strong winds that batter the coastline during extreme weather events. A comparison of two villages in Sri Lanka that were struck by the 2004 tsunami reveals the role of healthy mangrove forests in saving lives. In the village of Kapuhenwala, which is surrounded by 200 ha of mangrove 74

116 forest, only 2 people died as a result of the tsunami as compared to the death toll of 6,000 in the village of Wanduruppa where the mangroves are severely degraded (IUCN, 2005). This catastrophe provides a strong argument for the protection and enhancement of mangrove forests. Seagrass beds Seagrass beds form part of a complex integrated coastal system with coral reefs and mangroves. These underwater ecosystems are areas of high productivity producing more than 4,000 g C/m 2 /yr, contributing significantly to tropical reef and other near-shore communities. They are important for stabilising the sea bed and providing habitat to juvenile fish and commercially important species such as queen conch and lobster. The West Indian Manatee and green sea turtle also rely on the seagrass beds around the Dominican Republic as foraging grounds. These flowering marine plants also play a role in maintaining the clarity of seawater, an important service to recreational activities such as snorkelling and scuba diving. Four species of seagrass are found around the Dominican Republic in shallow coastal waters and often in association with reefs and mangroves. There is limited information on the extent of seagrass coverage and the change in area over time. Most of the seagrass beds lie within protected areas but they are still subjected to the same threats affecting other coastal ecosystems namely sedimentation from river outflows, agro-chemical pollution, and pressures from coastal development. Overfishing and destructive fishing practices are also damaging to seagrass habitat. Seagrasses are so sensitive to changes in the surrounding water that they are considered to be important indicator species of the general health of coastal ecosystems. Coral Reefs Coral reefs are found along 166 km of the Dominican coastline (Figure 4.5.3). Broad coastal shallow platforms with barrier reefs have formed on the east and northwest coasts, in most other places, however, high turbidity, the depth of the ocean platform, and the proximity of large rivers, have severely limited reef formation (Woodley, 2000). The longest continuous reef (64.2 km) is located off the northwest of Montecristi, within a National Park. Most of the corals there form fringing reefs, but there are also two barrier reefs, four large offshore banks and numerous patch reefs. Another continuous reef is located in the east, off of Playa Bávaro and Punta Cana, and a smaller one, off the southern coast of Boca Chica and Juan Dolio. These towns are important resort destinations that benefit from the physical protection and scuba diving opportunities that the coral reefs provide. Coral reefs have been termed the rainforests of the sea because of the complexity of the habitat, their high productivity and great diversity of marine species that they support. Corals are natural breakwaters that protect beaches and low lying coastal communities from erosive wave action. The breakdown of coral reefs also supplies sand to beaches and are important to the erosion-accretion process. 75

117 Figure 4.5.3: Location of coral reefs and selected tourist destinations Source: (Wielgus, Cooper, Torres, & Burke, 2010) Over 80% of The Dominican Republic s coral reefs are threatened by human activity (Burke & Maidens, 2004). Pollution, disease and sedimentation have degraded and killed coral reefs around the Dominican Republic in recent times. Live corals currently represent only 9.4% of the total cover of the eastern reef and 11.0% of the southern reef (Wielgus, Cooper, Torres, & Burke, 2010). The World Resource Institute (WRI) Reefs at Risk analysis found that artisanal overfishing is one of the major problems affecting the recovery of the Dominican reefs, and that all commercially important species have been depleted. When reef grazers are removed corals become overgrown by algae. Corals are also damaged by harmful and illegal fishing practices such as the use of chemical poisons, e.g. household chlorine bleach, to catch fish. The local reefs face large impacts and threats from a steadily growing tourism industry (Burke et al. 2004). Mass tourism has encouraged rapid and poorly planned coastal developments that have caused sedimentation from construction sites and pollution into coastal waters from domestic waste water and inadequately treated sewage. Fisheries Over 300 species of fishes, crustaceans, molluscs and echinoderms are harvested from the near shore waters and off-shore banks surrounding the Dominican Republic. Fishing is mainly artisanal, utilising the following fishing gears and methods: handline, longlines, gillnets, seines, cast nets, traps and diving. There are some semi-industrial and industrial operations that target fishing banks off the northern coast. An estimated 8,400 fishermen are engaged in this small scale industry, with 99% of landings sold domestically. There are high levels of fish imports accounting for about 60% of local fish consumption. With an average annual production of 11,000 tonnes, (Herrera, Betancourt, Silva, Lamelas, & Melo, 2011) the fishery is believed to be exploiting the traditional resources at or beyond their maximum sustainable yields (MSY). 76

118 The marine fishery resources presently exploited can be classified into six groups: Demersal fishes of the continental shelf at depths of 0 to 200 m; snappers (Lutjanidae), groupers (Serranidae), grunts (Haemulidae), parrots (Scaridae), bass (Centropomidae), etc. Demersal fishes of the slope crest depths of 200 to 500 m; snappers and groupers. The small coastal pelagic fish local sardines (Clupeidae). Coastal pelagic fish (above all insular shelf and slope), mid-size and regionally migratory: jacks and scads (Carangidae), barracudas (Sphyraenidae), bonito (Scombridae), Oceanic pelagic fish, small or large sizes: albacore and other tunas (Scombridae), dolphinfish (Coryphaenidae), marlins (Istiophoridae), etc. Crustaceans and molluscs from the shelf at depths of 0 to 100 m: lobster (Panuliridae), conch (Strombidae), shrimps (Penaeidae), crabs (Portunidae, Magidae, etc.), octopuses (Octopodidae), etc. The open nature of the fishery puts a great strain on the resources. Over the past 10 years overfishing has caused a 60% decrease in gross income from reef-dependent fisheries - from over $41 million to less than $17 million (Wielgus, Cooper, Torres, & Burke, 2010). Most fishing villages are located in some of the poorest regions and fishing is sometimes the sole source of income for some families. Over-exploitation of the queen conch (Strombus gigas) led to the export of the species being placed under ban by the CITES agreement. Conch is still used locally but an assessment of stocks since the CITES moratorium has not been completed. The spiny lobster fishery is similar to that of other islands in the region in its commercial importance to the tourism market, which consumes most of the lobster harvested. Although regulated by the Fisheries Division it is considered to be fished close to the MSY. Blue marlin and white marlin are of particular importance to the sports fishing industry, which is popular in the coastal regions of Bávaro, Cabeza de Toro, Punta Cana, Boca de Yuma, Santo Domingo, La Romana and Montecristi. No official catch statistics are maintained for this activity, however, it is estimated that more than 3,000 tourists request sport fishery services in Bávaro, El Cortecito, Macao, Punta Cana and Cabeza de Toro. Cetaceans The Dominican Republic is the premier whale watching destination in the Caribbean with 33 companies taking about 28,000 passengers on tours in 2008, generating a total of US $8,927,000. The waters around the country are breeding grounds for large numbers of humpback whales that migrate to the north coast during the winter months to mate and calve. Samana Bay, Silver Bank and Navidad Bank are the three main areas in which these whales congregate; all three are included in the Marine Mammals Sanctuary. The whale watching season is from January to March although various other cetaceans including the pantropical spotted, spinner and bottlenose dolphins as well as short finned pilot whales are seen year round. In 2008, over 95% of whale watchers in the Dominican Republic were in the Samana Bay area generating over US $3.6 million in direct expenditure, of which US $82,000 went into marine sanctuary entrance fees. Whale watch tours in Silver Bank made approximately US $1.5 million in direct expenditure of which approximately US $50,000 went towards entrance fees (O Connor, Campbell, Cortez, & Knowles, 2009). Cetaceans are a globally shared resource therefore the continuation of these valuable whale watch tours in Dominican Republic is dependent on the presence and conservation of these mammals in the Eastern Caribbean. 77

119 Vulnerability of Biodiversity and Fisheries to Climate Change Figure 4.5.4: High species richness and climate change vulnerability Areas in red represent the ecosystems of the Dominican Republic with high species richness areas and climatic changes that have been estimated that will be outside comfort zones as defined by the Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC) 2008 report. The black shaded areas are species rich, where the climatic change will be far outside the comfort zone; thus they are considered the most extreme critical areas. It is of special concern to the Dominican Republic that the most critical areas are around the Samana Bay. (Source: in Juergens, Pérez, & Grasela, GIS mapping was provided by Anderson. et al. (2008) CATHALAC. Background map ESRI, USGS, NASA, NGA, USGS) Forests While small changes in temperature and precipitation are known to have significant effects on forest ecosystems, there has been little research focused on the projected impacts of climate change on terrestrial biodiversity in the region. Climate change related variations in average daily temperature, seasonal precipitation and extreme weather events will exacerbate the effects of localised human stressors on Dominican forests. Alterations in the average annual temperature and precipitation patterns may affect the growth of trees and other plant species within the forest. Projected annual changes in temperature by the 2080s indicate an increase of C for the GCM ensemble. Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections driven by ECHAM4 and HadCM3 indicate generally greater increases in temperatures over the Dominican Republic than the median changes projected by the GCM ensemble under higher emissions scenario A2. GCM projections of future rainfall for the Dominican 78

120 Republic span both overall increases and decreases but generally tend towards decreases in annual rainfall with a range of -42 to +7 mm per month by 2080 under scenario A2. Decreases in precipitation and increased average daily temperatures could result in the overall contraction of vegetated areas, reduction of rainforest zones and an associated increase in the tropical dry forest zones; these conditions also favour the formation and spread of wild fires. Consequently these impacts will result in the displacement and loss of habitats and subsequently the likely loss of plant and animal species (Figure 4.5.4). The uppermost regions of the Cordillera Central range grow a type of vegetation classified as cloud montane forest. These species require almost continual cloud coverage and are most vulnerable to climate change (Foster, 2001). Assuming a cooling rate of 1 o C per 150 m of altitude, a projected increase of 1.7 o C would require vegetative zones to migrate vertically by 260 m, and up to 530 m in a 3.5 o C scenario (Day, 2009). The result could be a displacement of cloud forests into progressively smaller regions at the tops of mountains possibly causing the loss of entire cloud forests if vertical migration is not possible. Reduced moisture could result in forests becoming much drier, potentially causing the wilting and death of epiphytes, which provide important habitat for birds, such as the endemic narrow billed tody ( Todus angustirostris), insects and reptiles (Foster, 2001). Loss of forest cover will further increase the risk of soil erosion with implications for ecotourism, agricultural lands, freshwater and coastal ecosystems. Caribbean forests have always suffered physical damage from storms but there is evidence that the increasing intensity of hurricanes is causing more severe damage, with potentially longer term consequences for the integrity of the forest structure and canopy. Severe damage to trees and animal habitats may take years to return to normal. Mangroves and wetlands It is anticipated that global climate change will aggravate the impacts of current human stressors on mangroves and reduce their natural resilience to changing conditions. Observed and GCM ensemble projections of temperature change in the Dominican Republic will not likely have adverse direct impacts on the country s mangrove forests. However, mangrove trees could be indirectly impacted by long term temperature changes since increased temperatures will damage coral reefs, which mangroves depend on for shelter from wave action. Reduced levels of precipitation would reduce mangrove productivity and increase their exposure to very saline water. SLR is expected to pose the greatest climate change threat to mangroves (McLeod & Salm, 2006). A rise in sea level is projected to affect wetlands by either expanding or confining their habitat. SLR and salt water intrusion will increase soil salinity and may allow wetland vegetation to spread. On the other hand, if mangroves and other vegetation associated with salt ponds are obstructed from migrating inland due to coastal topography and coastal infrastructure, they may be overcome by SLR and eventually lost. Observed and projected increases in SSTs indicate potential for sustained increases in hurricane activity, and model projections (although still relatively primitive) indicate that this may occur through increases in intensity of events, including increases in near storm rainfalls and peak winds. In 1998, Hurricane Georges passed over the Dominican Republic causing extensive damage to a 4,700 ha of mangrove forest. Wind damage resulted in tree mortality ranging from 14 to 100% (by density) among 23 different plots evaluated and averaged 47.7% across all plots with some species experiencing greater damage than others (Sherman, Fahey, & Martinez, 2001). Species mortality continued up to 18 months post-hurricane. Mangrove species exhibit different responses to storm damage and a forest s community structure could thus be changed by tropical storms and hurricanes. The long term effects of extreme events on mangrove stands are uncertain but will most likely mean a loss of the many essential services provided by these ecosystems. The best 79

121 approach is therefore to preserve and restore mangrove communities given the economic and life saving benefits they can offer. Beaches The WRI study on Dominican Reefs estimated the potential increase in beach erosion that could result from further degradation of its coral reefs, climate change notwithstanding. The study concluded that 10 years after the disappearance of live corals, erosion rates could increase by more than 100% on eastern beaches and by more than 65% on southern beaches. Climate change, in particular SLR and extreme events, is likely to increase rates of beach erosion; as sea levels rise, shorelines retreat inland and beach area is typically reduced. Results from field research coordinated by The CARIBSAVE Partnership estimated that in Bavaro Beach, Punta Cana, there will be a total land loss of 243, m 2, with a total beach loss of 230, m 2 as a direct result of SLR (for more detailed discussion, see section on Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements). Beaches are critical assets for tourism in the Dominican Republic; therefore a reduction of beach width not only reduces the aesthetic appeal but poses a threat to resort infrastructure. A reduction in the width of the beach buffer zone will leave coastal infrastructure more vulnerable to erosive wave action, and also result in the loss of critical fish landing sites. Climate change impacts on beaches will also threaten the survival of species such as marine turtles and shore birds. Turtles exhibit strong nesting site fidelity and will undertake long distance migrations in order to return to their natal beach to nest. Given the small fraction of hatchlings that survive to adulthood the loss of beach nesting sites has grave implications for marine turtle populations. Furthermore, warmer average daily temperatures will increase the incubation temperature of nests and thus may skew sex ratios in developing turtle eggs thereby reducing the reproductive capacity of sea turtles. Such impacts will mean further threats to species that are already critically endangered and a loss of potential revenue for the country s expanding ecotourism industry. As a signatory to CITES the Dominican Republic have an obligation to protect these marine reptiles. Intense tropical cyclones and accompanying storm surges can dramatically alter beach profiles. Over the years, beaches, particularly along the south coast of the country, have experienced erosion from storm surge during extreme weather events. The potential increased in storm intensity will mean greater damage to beaches and perhaps long term cumulative damage as the decreasing interval between storms may prevent beaches from recovering fully (Scott, et al., 2006). Seagrass beds Climate change presents a relatively new threat to seagrass ecosystems and as such there has been little study on its impacts on seagrass. Potential threats may arise from SLR, changes in localised salinity, increased SST and intensity of extreme weather events. As with corals, SLR may reduce the sunlight available to seagrass beds and hence reduce their productivity. While there is no consensus amongst the models as to whether the frequencies and intensities of rainfall on the heaviest rainfall days will increase or decrease in the region, increased rainfall could mean localised decreases in salinity and resulting decreased productivity of seagrass habitats. On the other hand, CO 2 enrichment of the ocean may have a positive effect on photosynthesis and growth (Campbell, McKenzie, & Kerville, 2006). Associated ocean acidification may not hamper primary productivity of seagrasses since photosynthetic activity of dense seagrass stands have been shown to increase local ph. The impact of increased SST on seagrass beds in the Caribbean is uncertain since studies have suggested that the photosynthetic mechanism of tropical seagrasses becomes damaged at temperatures of C (Campbell, McKenzie, & Kerville, 2006). 80

122 Hurricanes can uproot these aquatic plants and often beaches are strewn with mats of dead seagrass after a hurricane. Intense rainfall that accompanies extreme weather events are likely to cause soil erosion and coastal sedimentation, thus increasing the turbidity of waters surrounding seagrass beds, smothering plants and blocking essential light. These combined and cumulative impacts on seagrass beds will likely impact negatively on stocks of lobster, conch, green turtle and manatees further threatening the country s biodiversity and resulting in losses to the fisheries and tourism sectors. Coral reefs Coral reefs have demonstrated the ability to acclimatise and adapt to temporal and spatial changes in their environment throughout their geological history. However, the rate of SLR may exceed the vertical growth rate of corals and decrease the amount of sunlight available to them thus causing them to grow even more slowly. Increased atmospheric CO 2 is also causing changes in atmospheric and oceanic characteristics with which corals must contend. Ocean acidification, SLR and increased SST present additional stresses on coral reefs around the Dominican Republic that are already threatened with coastal development and increased pressures from pollution, over-fishing, diving and boating activities. GCM projections indicate increases in sea surface temperatures throughout the year. Projected increases range between +0.7 C and +2.7 C by the 2080s across all three emissions scenarios (see Climate Modelling section). Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3 C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals (Nicholls, 2007). Prior to the 2005 Pan Caribbean bleaching episode, the Dominican Republic was showing increased coral cover. However, as much as 65% of live corals were impacted by the unusually warm SST that year with the majority of colonies experiencing 100% bleaching. The following year 66-85% of living coral cover was again bleached with some individual colonies suffering bleaching of up to 95% of their surface area (Jones, et al., 2008). Increased frequency of bleaching episodes means reduced recovery time for coral polyps and greater likelihood of mortality from opportunistic diseases. Furthermore, warmer oceanic waters will facilitate the uptake of anthropogenic CO 2, which will change seawater ph, having a negative impact on coral and other calcifying organisms since more acidic waters will reduce the availability of aragonite (required for shell/skeleton building) and weaken the skeletal structure of such organisms. Other climate related impacts are expected from SLR and extreme events but it is difficult to predict whether Caribbean corals will keep pace with SLR, increased SST and other climate change impacts. Rising sea levels will reduce the amount of available light necessary for the photosynthetic processes of corals and more intense hurricanes will likely cause even greater damage to coral reefs, both from direct wave energy impacts and siltation. The rigidity of a reef helps to break up waves and disperse wave energy thereby protecting the shoreline from wave impact. However, in so doing coral reefs can be broken apart and even uprooted from the substrate. Heavy rainfall during extreme weather events causes siltation of reefs as river outflow increases. Reefs along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic are more often impacted by hurricanes than those along the northern coast. What is more certain is that the corals ability to adapt to climate change is dependent on the degree of localised environmental stressors that they are exposed to. This is supported by the fact that most of the coral bleaching mortality around the Dominican Republic has been found on areas near urban development (Cortes, 2003). The ability of coral reef ecosystems to withstand the impacts of climate change will depend on the extent of exposure to other anthropogenic pressures and the frequency of future bleaching events (Donner, 2005). Coral reefs have been shown to keep pace with rapid postglacial SLR when not subjected to environmental or anthropogenic stresses (Hallock, 2005). Action must be taken to protect coral reefs from poor water quality, over-fishing and physical damage from tourism activities. This will be increasingly 81

123 important as weakened and slow growing reefs are less able to provide effective protection to shorelines or sediment for beach sand. Poor quality reefs will also diminish the diving and snorkelling experience and potentially result in significant loss of its competitive advantage in the tourism industry. Fisheries As previously discussed, climate change will have negative impacts on coral cover, seagrass beds and mangrove ecosystems that are all important to various life stages of commercial fish. A loss or partial loss of these nursery habitats will therefore reduce the abundance of lobster and conch. Severe fluctuations in SST and local salinities could also compromise larval development and subsequently fish stocks. Climate change may affect the seasonal small scale pelagic fishery which is dependent on resource availability. Warmer waters could potentially alter breeding and migration patterns and may drive pelagic species away from the tropics in search of cooler temperatures, thereby impacting on local food security and sport fishing activities. More intense extreme weather events will mean more significant impacts to the fisheries sector. Hurricanes can cause extensive damage to fishing fleets, coral reefs, seagrass beds, beach landing sites, and fisheries infrastructure. An expected increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones will mean increase losses to this sector; those employed in the sector, generally the poor, can ill afford such threats to their livelihoods. An additional concern is that warmer temperatures may increase the frequency of algal blooms as well as the likelihood of ciguatoxin infection, a potentially fatal toxin to humans that accumulates in the tissues of some species of fish (Confalonieri, Menne, Akhtar, Ebi, Hauengue, & Kovats, 2007; Tester, Feldman, Naua, Kibler, & Litaker, 2010). More recently, ciguatoxin infection has reportedly emerged in travellers from several European countries most of whom were returning from the Caribbean, mainly the Dominican Republic and Cuba (Develoux & Loup, 2008; FAO, 2004). The country s fisheries sector is closely tied to the tourism industry and such negative impacts on either sector could potentially harm the country s economy and have severe social impacts for fishers, their families and communities. Climate change impacts on the chemical and physical characteristics of marine waters will also have negative consequences for whale watching tour operators of the Dominican Republic. Information on the biology of many cetaceans is limited and this makes it difficult to predict the effects that climate change may have on them. Nevertheless it is likely that changes in global temperature, sea levels, sea ice extent, ocean acidification and salinity, rainfall patterns and extreme weather events will decrease the range of many marine mammals (Elliott & Simmonds, 2007). Current evidence suggests that the migration patterns, distribution and/or abundance of cetaceans are likely to alter in response to continued changes in sea surface temperature with global climate change (Lambert, Hunter, Pierce, & MacLeod, 2010). This could mean significant financial losses for tourism operators and their employees in Samana Bay, Silver Bank and Navidad Bank. Despite these concerns, little is understood about the long-term effects of climate change on Caribbean fisheries. A report from the Marine Resource Governance in the Eastern Caribbean Project of the Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies (CERMES) at the University of the West Indies has noted that while the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are well recognised, insufficient research has been carried out into the potential impacts on fishing, fish processing, trade and fisheries technical support services related to artisanal fisheries. 82

124 4.6. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements Background Small islands and low-lying coastal states have much of their infrastructure and settlements located on or near the coast, including tourism, government, health, commercial and transportation facilities. With its high density development along the coast, the tourism sector is particularly vulnerable to climate change and SLR. The Dominican Republic is one of the Caribbean s most important tourism destinations where the threat of SLR has been identified as a particular concern in both the short and long term. The Dominican Republic relies on its tourist industry for much of its national income, and therefore the economic effects of SLR and storm induced erosions are very significant. Of critical importance is the threat of beach erosion to the majority of existing and expected tourism facilities sited in areas located near the coastline (e.g. Punta Cana). This section of the report will focus on the coastal vulnerabilities associated with slow-onset impacts of climate change, particularly inundation from SLR as it relates to tourism infrastructure (e.g. resort properties), tourism attractions (e.g. sea turtle nesting sites) and related supporting tourism infrastructure (e.g. transportation networks). These vulnerabilities will be assessed at the local scale (Punta Cana), with adaptation and protection infrastructure options discussed. Please refer to Comprehensive Disaster Management section for climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation measures associated with event driven or fast-onset impacts such as disasters and hazards (e.g. hurricanes, storm surges, cyclones). Figure 4.6.1: Dominican Republic - Overview Map 83

125 Coastal areas already face pressure from natural forces (wind, waves, tides and currents) and human activities (beach sand removal and inappropriate construction of shoreline structures). The impacts of climate change, in particular SLR, will magnify these pressures and accelerate coastal erosion. Areas at greatest risk in the Dominican Republic include Bavaro Beach in Punta Cana, with notable resorts at risk. The estimated coastline retreat due to SLR will have serious consequences for land uses along the coast (Mimura, et al., 2007; Simpson M., et al., 2010), including tourism development and infrastructure. A primary design goal of coastal tourism resorts is to maintain coastal aesthetics of uninterrupted sea views and access to beach areas. As a result, tourism resort infrastructure is highly vulnerable to SLR inundation and related beach erosion. Moreover, the beaches themselves are critical assets for tourism in the Dominican Republic, with a large proportion of beaches being lost to inundation and accelerated erosion even before resort infrastructure is damaged Vulnerability of Infrastructure and Settlements to Climate Change As outlined in the section on Climate Modelling, there is overwhelming scientific evidence that SLR associated with climate change is projected to occur in the 21 st Century and beyond, representing a chronic threat to the coastal zones in the Dominican Republic. The sea level has risen in the Caribbean at about 3.1 mm per year from 1950 to 2000 (Church, White, Coleman, Lambeck, & Mitrovica, 2004). Global SLR is anticipated to increase as much as 1.5 m to 2 m above present levels in the 21 st Century (Rahmstorf, 2007; Vermeer & Rahmstorf, 2009; Grinsted, Moore, & Jevrejeva, 2009; Jevrejeva, Moore, & Grinsted, 2008; Horton, Herweijer, Rosenzweig, Liu, Gornitz, & Ruane, 2008). It is also important to note that recent studies of the relative magnitude of regional SLR suggests that because of the Caribbean s proximity to the equator, SLR will be more pronounced than in some other regions (Bamber, Riva, Vermeersen, & LeBrocq, 2009; Hu, Meehl, Han, & Yin, 2009). Figure demonstrates that the impacts of beach erosion are already occurring in the Dominican Republic. 84

126 Figure 4.6.2: Evidence of Beach Erosion at Bavaro Beach, Punta Cana The CARIBSAVE Partnership coordinated a field research team with members from the University of Waterloo (Canada) and the staff from the Department of Natural Resources of the Dominican Republic to complete detailed coastal profile surveying (Figure 4.6.3). Using survey grade GPS equipment CARIBSAVE field teams conducted survey transects (perpendicular to the shoreline) at one location in the Dominican Republic (Bavaro Beach, Punta Cana) where tourism infrastructure was present. Study sites closer to the equator do not support Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) and are better suited for Real Time Kinematic (RTK) GPS systems. This common method often used in land based and hydrographic surveys requires the setting up of a base station over a known location at each study site. Due to the unavailability of a close reference station a TOPCON RTK GPS system including base station (15 km radius), antenna, survey stick and data logger was used for data collection in the Dominican Republic. The Base Station receiver was set up in a wide open area to maximise both study site and satellite coverage. A survey stick rover unit was then sent out to survey beach elevations along transects within the 15 km base station coverage area. Finally, distances between points along transects were measured using a Lecia Disto laser distancing meter. 85

127 Figure 4.6.3: Ryan Sim (University of Waterloo, Canada) surveying at Bavaro Beach with a High Resolution Coastal Profile Surveying with an RTK GPS System Vertical measurements were adjusted according to the height of the receiver relative to the ground. The water s edge was fixed to a datum point of 0 for the field measurements, but later adjusted according to tide charts. Generally, satellite connections were very good, receiving up to 10 satellites, resulting in submetre accuracy. The mean vertical accuracy for all points was approximately to 0.3 m while the horizontal accuracy had a mean average of to 0.2 m accuracy. Each transect point measurement was averaged over 30 readings taken at 1 second intervals. At each point, the nature of the ground cover (e.g. sand, vegetation, concrete) was logged to aid in the post-processing analysis. Ground control points (GCP) were taken to anchor the GPS positions to locations that are identifiable from aerial photographs to improve horizontal accuracy. These were taken where suitable landmarks existed at each transect location and throughout the country. GCP points were measured over 60 readings at 1 second intervals. Following the field collection, all of the GPS points were downloaded on to a Windows PC, and converted into several GIS formats. Most notably, the GPS points were converted into ESRI Shapefile format to be used with ESRI ArcGIS suite. Aerial Imagery was obtained from Google Earth, and was geo referenced using the GCPs collected. The data was then inspected for errors and incorporated with other GIS data collected while in the field. Absolute mean sea level was determined by comparing the first GPS point (water s edge) to tide tables to determine the high tide mark. Three dimensional topographic models of each of the study sites were then produced from a raster topographic surface using the GPS elevation points as base height information. A Triangular Irregular Network (TIN) model was created to represent the beach profiles in three dimensions. Contour lines were delineated from both the TIN and raster topographic surface model. For the purpose of this study, contour lines were represented for every metre of elevation change above sea level. Using the topographic elevation data, flood lines were delineated in one metre intervals. In an effort to share the data with a wider audience, all GIS data will be compatible with several software applications, including Google Earth. 86

128 Figure : Total Land and Beach Loss due to SLR, Bavaro Beach, Punta Cana The high resolution imagery provided by this technique is essential to assess the vulnerability of infrastructure and settlements to future SLR in the Dominican Republic. The imagery also has the ability to identify individual properties, making it a very powerful risk communication tool. Having this information available for community level dialogue on potential adaptation strategies is highly valuable. A detailed map from the study location in the Dominican Republic is provided in Figure , highlighting the total land and beach loss due to SLR. In Bavaro Beach, Punta Cana, it is estimated that there will be a total land loss of 243, m 2, with a total beach loss of 230, m 2 as a direct result of SLR. A number of resorts will be impacted as a result, including Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, Barcelo, Grand Paradise Bavaro, Majestic Colonial, Grand Bahia Principe Ambar, Grand Bahia Principe Esmeralda, Rui Palace, Rui Palace Resort and the Rui Palace Hotel. Beach area losses in the Dominican Republic were also calculated for 0.5 m, 1 m, 2 m, and 3 m scenarios (Table 4.6.1) for Bavaro Beach, Punta Cana. At a 0.5 m SLR scenario, almost one third (29%) of the beach area will be lost, increasing to almost half (46%) of the beach area under a 1 m SLR scenario. With a 3 m SLR scenario, all (100%) of Bavaro Beach in Punta Cana will become inundated. Such impacts would transform coastal tourism in the Dominican Republic, with implications for property values, insurance costs, destination competitiveness, marketing, and wider issues of local employment and the economic wellbeing of thousands of employees. 87

129 Table 4.6.1: Beach Area losses at Bavaro Beach, Punta Cana Bavaro Beach SLR Scenario Beach Area Lost To SLR m² Beach Area Lost (%) 0.5m % 1.0m % 2.0m % 3.0m % 88

130 4.7. Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management History of Disaster Management Globally Though natural hazards have been affecting populations and interrupting both natural and human processes for millennia, only in the last several decades have concerted efforts to manage and respond to their impacts on human populations and settlements become a priority. Most recently, these efforts have been informed by work at the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), a United Nations agency for disaster reduction created after the 1990s International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. After several years of reporting on hazards and impacts, the ISDR created the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) in This strategy aimed at preparing for and responding to disasters was adopted by many countries in order to address a growing concern over the vulnerability of humans and their settlements. The HFA took the challenges identified through disaster management research and practice and created five priorities: Priority #1: Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation. Priority #2: Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning. Priority #3: Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels. Priority #4: Reduce the underlying risk factors. Priority #5: Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels. (ISDR, 2005) Extensive elaboration of each priority is beyond the scope of this report. However, there are some key points to discuss before moving forward to a discussion of the local disaster management context. Priority #1 of the HFA can be thought of as the foundation for hazard and disaster management. Given that governance and institutions also play a critical role in reducing disaster risk, fully engaging environmental managers in national disaster risk management mechanisms, and incorporating risk reduction criteria into environmental regulatory frameworks [are key options for improving how institutions address disaster-related issues] (UNEP, 2007, p. 15). The Hyogo Framework suggests strengthening effective and flexible institutions for enforcement and balancing of competing interests (UNEP, 2007). Priority #2 focuses on spatial planning to identify inappropriate development zones, appropriate buffer zones, land uses or building codes and the use of technology to model, forecast and project risks (UNEP, 2007, p. 15). The development of technology for mapping, data analysis, modelling and measurement of hazard information offers decision makers a much better understanding of the interaction hazards have with their economy and society. Priority #3 encourages the promotion and integration of hazard education within schools to spread awareness of the risks and vulnerability to the individuals of at-risk communities. This relates to climate change awareness as well. The countries of the Caribbean, including the Dominican Republic, not only face annual hazards, but will also be directly affected by changes in sea levels, more extreme temperatures and other predicted climate changes. By educating children, hazard information will be transferred to adults and basic knowledge about threats and proper response to hazards, as well as climate change, can help improve community level resilience. It is important that hazard and climate change awareness be promoted 89

131 within the tourism sector as well, since tourists may not be familiar with the hazards in their destination and will thus require direction from their hosts. Priority #4 of the HFA demands the synthesis of the previous three priorities: governance, education and awareness, and appropriate technologies. To develop and implement effective plans aimed at saving lives, protecting the environment and protecting property threatened by disaster, all relevant stakeholders must be engaged: multi-stakeholder dialogue is key to successful emergency response (UNEP, 2007). Not only is this dialogue encouraged here; Goal 8 of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) also advocates for participation and open communication. As climate change threatens the successful achievement of the HFA and the MDGs, simultaneous dialogue about development and risk management will ensure continued resilience in communities and countries across the Caribbean. The final priority of the Hyogo Framework, Priority #5, is geared toward a more proactive plan of action, rather than the reactive disaster management that has failed to save lives on many occasions in the past. It is now commonplace to have this same proactive approach to disaster management. However, finding ways to implement and execute these plans has proven more difficult (Clinton, 2006). As you will note, managing disaster risks requires a cross-sectoral understanding of the interdependent pressures that create vulnerability, as well as demanding cooperation of various sectors Natural Hazards in the Caribbean and the Dominican Republic There are three broad categories of hazards, and the countries in the Caribbean Basin could face all, or most, of them at any given time. Table 4.7.1: Types of Hazards in the Caribbean Basin Hydro-meteorological Geological Biological Hurricane Tropical Storm Flooding Drought Storm Surge Landslide/mud-flow Earthquake Volcano Tsunami Epidemic Wildfire/Bushfire The Dominican Republic has the third highest economic risk exposure to two or more hazards according to the global 2008 Disaster Hotspot study (GFDRR, 2010). In the period between 1980 and 2008, the Dominican Republic has experienced 40 natural disasters, which affected more than 2.5 million people and caused economic damages in excess of US $2.5 billion (GFDRR, 2010). The primary hazards affecting this Caribbean nation are tropical storms, hurricanes and flooding. The vulnerability and adaptive capacity of to these and other climate-related hazards the Dominican people is elaborated in Section 4.8 and 5.8. The highest peak is an extinct volcano, Duarte s Peak, which is 3,110 m high the highest peak in the Caribbean. The country does not have any active volcanoes, though further risk from geological hazards is present because the Dominican Republic is located in one of the most seismically active zones in the world (GFDRR, 2010). Located at the boundary between the North American and Caribbean tectonic plates, the 90

132 country s mountain ranges were formed as a result of historic seismic activity (Prentice, Mann, Taylor, Burr, & Valastro, 1993). The Enriquillo-Plantain Garden Fault remains a significant source of hazard, although the historic January 2010 earthquake in Haiti did release some pressure from this area (GFDRR, 2010). The country is at continued risk to earthquake events and there is further potential for tsunamis associated with seismic activity. Hydro-meteorological hazards also regularly disrupt life in the Dominican Republic. The island of Hispaniola is located in the Atlantic Hurricane Belt which means that many tropical storms and hurricanes pass near the Dominican Republic each year during the hurricane season. Further hazards include flooding and landslides, which can occur with seasonal and heavy rainfall events in many areas of the country. The Dominican Republic is not immune to droughts either. At the end of 2009, 7 months of drought was followed by a squall that caused serious flooding and mudslides in the central and northern states (Dominicantoday.com, 2010). The many rivers and streams have also been known to cause flooding, especially in Haina, Nizao, Ocoa, San Juan, Yaque del Sur, Yaque del Norte, Yuna, Soco, and the riverbanks of the cities of Santo Domingo and Santiago watersheds (GFDRR, 2010). Implications from flooding and drought in the agriculture and water sectors are discussed in their respective sector vulnerability discussions. Together geological and hydro-meteorological hazards have caused the most damages and losses to the Dominican Republic. Epidemics and wildfires have also affected the country in the last century (EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, 2000) on more than one occasion so emergency preparedness or management does require considerations beyond climate Case Study Examination of Vulnerability The post-disaster time period is one where vulnerabilities can be most easily identified and efforts to address challenges can be started using recovery funding. As such, an analysis of some recent disaster situations will reveal some of the vulnerability that persists across the Dominican Republic at present. The selected hazard events demonstrate both the diversity of hazards but also the differing levels of resilience to hazard impacts. Jimaní and Soliette River disaster, debris flow and flood, 2004 The town of Jimaní is located near the Haiti-Dominican Republic border and is in a valley next to the Soliette River/Rio Blanco. Jimaní is built on an alluvial fan of sediment deposited by thousands of years of flooding events (Crist 1952, p. 105 in Doberstein B., 2009) and is therefore exposed to high flooding and debris flow risks. Starting in late May 2004, heavy precipitation of over 500 mm led to massive flooding of the Soliette River (Arauz, 2004a; Doberstein & Stager, in press). The May 2004 debris flow carried sediments and boulders into the town of Jimaní, damaging at least 870 homes and killing approximately 400 residents, many of which were from Jimaní s informal settlements (Doberstein & Stager, in press). 91

133 Figure 4.7.1: Impacts to housing in Jimaní following debris flow event in 2004 (Source: Arauz, 2004b) The vulnerability of informal settlements was revealed during this event and the need for land use planning that considers physical risks and natural hazards reinforced. Following the disaster, reconstruction efforts that involved the community in the design and location of replacement homes was a major success factor in the reduction of some vulnerability (Doberstein B., 2009). Without community involvement it is well documented that the likelihood of residents keeping their new, relocated homes would have been low (Oliver-Smith, 1991). While all vulnerability and risk could not be removed in this case because of community needs and requirement, the final housing location was preferred over others (Doberstein & Stager, in press). In addition, structural components in the new home addressed vulnerability. A safe zone was incorporated into the design of the permanent housing so that in future flood events there was a safe location within each home (Doberstein & Stager, in press). This design feature served to reduce the vulnerability of persons and valuables to the impacts of flooding as it was located higher in the home (see Figure 4.7.2). 92

134 Figure 4.7.2: Successful reconstruction of damaged housing in Jimani including hazard design (Source: Doberstein & Stager, in press) Conservative estimates indicate that aid funding for vulnerability reduction and reconstruction in Jimaní are nearly US $10 million (Doberstein & Stager, in press). This funding has allowed the construction of a large multi-span bridge across the Rio Blanco, [more than] 150 houses, and a medium-scale channel widening, levee and revetment construction project. Large-scale protection structures (e.g. dams) capable of holding back periodic large debris flows [were] not seen as a realistic response (Doberstein & Stager, in press). Further implications for health and sanitation resulted from this disaster. The hospital in Jimaní was flooded and an alternate health care facility had to be found (PAHO, 2005). Limited road access to the affected region made the provision of health care and water supplies difficult. The water supply was expected to be disrupted for approximately 5 days and standing water increased the potential for vector-borne disease transmission among the affected population (PAHO, 2005). Vulnerability factors from flooding and other hazards are also discussed in the sector reports in sections 4.1 and 4.4. Disasters like this one often generate direct losses (e.g. damaged buildings or loss of life) but there are further indirect impacts that can be felt for weeks and months following the initial impact. As a result, the disaster can highlight vulnerability in a population and presents the opportunity to rebuild a community with lower vulnerability to various hazards. Hurricane Irene, 2011 Hurricane Irene developed on August 22 as the first hurricane in the Atlantic Basin in 2011 (BBC News Latin America & Caribbean, 2011). On the morning of August 23 several families were removed from their coastal homes in Puerta Plata because of storm surge risks (Dominican Today, 2011b). The Dominican Republic was first impacted by the category 2 storm on the 23 rd and strong winds gusting nearly 160 km/h for several days after. Coastal flood warnings were issues for low lying coastal areas of the northern areas of Nagua, Rio San Juan and Cabrera (Dominican Today, 2011b). Irene caused 3 fatalities and left 3,700 without homes in the northern coastal regions (Agencias, 2011). 93

135 Red Alerts were in effect in 88 communities and over 2,000 houses were evacuated in response to the strong winds and heavy rains from Irene. Destruction was quite significant in some communities (see Figure 4.7.3). Over 70 communities were isolated during the passage of Irene, and 120,000 persons were impacted by the category 2 hurricane (DREF, 2011). Figure 4.7.3: Hurricane Irene impacts in Dominican Republic (Source: Roberto Guzman, Associated Press 2011) This hurricane reminded all Dominicans of their vulnerability to hurricanes, particularly those living in lowlying coastal communities. A popular tourism location, Puerto Plata, was also impacted reinforcing the vulnerability of coastal tourism to the impacts of coastal hazards, especially storm surge (see also sections 4.6 and 5.6 for discussion of coastal infrastructure and tourism vulnerability and protection). These two case studies highlight the variable factors that influence vulnerability across the Dominican Republic even for a single hazard, flooding. Concerns of isolation and lack of access can affect effective response to disastrous events in many areas. Land use planning is also an important part of disaster risk reduction, which is going to play an increasing role as urban populations grow across the country. The specific needs of various communities need to be assessed individually so that local issues and livelihoods are considered (see Community Profile information for the Bayahibe area in sections 4.8 and 5.8). Lago Enriquillo Lake Enriquillo is located in the south-western region of the Dominican Republic. This hyper-saline lake is a rare natural phenomenon that formed when the channel separating Hispaniola into two joined paleoislands (World Wildlife Fund, 2001). The lake is fed by subterranean and surface influents but its volume only increases significantly with the hurricanes, cyclones and tropical storms that lash the country. In the Dominican Republic, other less important lakes with origins similar to those of Lake Enriquillo are Rincón Lagoon (Cristóbal or Cabral), Lake Caballero (World Wildlife Fund, 2001). Hurricanes and tropical storms can be beneficial to these types of lakes because they replenish them with freshwater (Marcano 1987 in World Wildlife Fund, 2001). However, recent measurements of the lake levels in Enriquillo and nearby Lake Azuei indicate these lakes are actually growing because of the Sabana Yegua dam release into the Yanque del Sur river (Sanchez, 2011). 94

136 In less than a month Lake Enriquillo has risen 20 cm, while Lake Azuei has risen 3 cm (Sanchez, 2011). This type of lake growth will undoubtedly affect the neighbouring populations who may lose land and property over time. Furthermore, the creation of large dams has proven very hazardous to communities in other parts of the world; usually as a result of inadequate planning. As a result, the need to continue monitoring the lake levels and the dam effectiveness is a local and national issue, particularly in areas where settlements are exposed to high risk of flooding. During the rainy season, lake levels in the Enriquillo and Azuei lakes, and the release speed of the Sabana Yegua dam can lead to changes in vulnerability. Climate change projections indicate more intense extreme rainfall events, therefore this unique growing lake requires disaster management considerations and the local area development planning must also consider the possible changes that could result in future scenarios. 95

137 4.8. Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development Where disasters take place in societies governed by power relations based on gender, age or social class, their impact will also reflect these relations and as a result, people s experience of the disaster will vary. Madhavi Ariyabandu (ECLAC, UNIFEM and UNDP, 2005) Background Tourism is now one of the key (and still growing) economic sectors in the Dominican Republic, in addition to the services sector, trade and agriculture (FCO, 2011). The World Travel and Tourism Council estimate that the Dominican Republic tourism sector employs approximately 16.3% of the employed labour force directly and indirectly (WTTC, 2007). Several coastal areas in the Dominican Republic are experiencing rapid tourism development (e.g. Punta Cana, La Romana-Bayahibe), and as a result, numerous residents living adjacent to these areas have benefitted from employment in one form or another. Existing economic and social disadvantages, however, make citizens vulnerable to economic and natural shocks. In some instances, women are at a greater disadvantage than men, which makes them even more vulnerable. Although there have been some improvements within the last decade (The World Bank, 2011; c.f. MEPD, 2010), poverty in the Dominican Republic is still severe. According to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 2010 Monitoring Report, in 2009, 34% of the Dominican population lived in poverty and 10.4% were indigent (MEPD, 2010). There is also a grave case of the working poor, as it was estimated that one in every 20 workers are indigent (living in extreme poverty) and one in every five is poor (MEPD, 2010; Naciones Unidas - República Dominicana, 2011a). Poverty in the Dominican Republic is strongly linked to lack of employment, limited education, food insecurity, poor health and lack of access to basic services (Monografias.com, n.d.; The World Bank, 2011). The employment rate in the Dominican Republic is very low. For the last two decades, the employment rate stood at an average of 46% (Naciones Unidas - República Dominicana, 2011b), and a large proportion of the self employed population are also unpaid (MEPD, 2010). The male employment rate (63%) for the same period is twice that of the female rate (29%), highlighting a critical gender gap in national employment levels. Unemployment amongst young people is especially severe, with a rate of 26.7% unemployment in the age bracket (Naciones Unidas - República Dominicana, 2011b). Girls and women have recorded higher enrolment levels in primary, secondary and tertiary education institutions when compared to men. This has given them a distinct advantage over men in general, and from this position, they have been able to make further headway in the labour market, as well as in political representation (Naciones Unidas - República Dominicana, 2011c; Naciones Unidas - República Dominicana, 2011d). Based on the existing conditions of these groups, and the impacts that the recent economic downturn would have had on the country, there are serious implications for individual, household and community vulnerability to climate impacts; both gradual long term changes and extreme short term events. 96

138 Vulnerability of Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development to Climate Change Vulnerability in the context of climate change is a function of the level of exposure to climate change related or induced events, the level of sensitivity to these events and the capacity to adapt. Climate and hydrological variability have both short and long term manifestations at the global scale, and is more often compounded by micro- and meso-scale human activities and impacts. The observed and predicted impacts of climate change are widely acknowledged in science and non-science circles, including communities who depend on natural resources. The Dominican Republic, as with other Caribbean territories, is affected annually by extreme low pressure systems during the Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Season which is in effect from June to November of each year. As such, the weather impacts of greatest concern include hurricanes, tropical storms, storm surges (more so for those who live adjacent to the coast) and torrential rainfall events. As such, the country has been at the mercy of severe hurricane and flooding impacts in the past (e.g. Hurricane David in 1979, floods in 2003; see Herbert, 1980; ECLAC, 2004; Hurricane City, 2008). Climate-sensitive or natural resource intensive livelihoods are very vulnerable to climate change impacts because they depend so much on the stability of climate conditions or resources. The vulnerability of the tourism sector to climate impacts however, also places its employees in a precarious position. The impacts of hurricanes and other low pressure system in the Dominican Republic will undoubtedly interrupt tourismbased operations temporarily, in the very least. Other similarly climate-sensitive sectors (e.g. agriculture) are likely to suffer as well. Low paid, unskilled labourers in these sectors are at the greatest risk, as they have less means to respond to and recover from climate impacts. As indicated previously, groups pre-disposed to vulnerability include women, children and the poor, owing to their lack of access to resources and opportunities which translates into low resilience and exposes them more to climate change impacts than other groups. The impacts of climate change undeniably aggravate poverty in all societies, and especially where poverty is extreme and widespread (Figure highlights some of these impacts). The areas where impoverished persons reside are more often at greater risk when compared to areas inhabited by stronger economic groups, particularly remote rural and coastal areas which are disconnected from essential services and resources. The impacts and aftermath of extreme weather events (e.g. flooding, drought, loss of lands and crops) and SLR (e.g. coastal erosion, salt water intrusion) deteriorate an already dire situation and leave persons in poverty with even less resources to survive (Kettle, Hogan, & Saul, n.d.; UNFPA, 2007). 97

139 SEVERE WEATHER More frequent and intense floods Rising sea levels More frequent and intense storms More frequent and intense droughts OUTCOMES Less land to use Loss of coastlines Loss of delta areas which are major sources of food production Spread of disease Increase in migration IMPACTS ON POVERTY Increase in poverty owing to: less food and safe water less land for living and agriculture loss of livelihoods decline in health diversion of resources (people and money) away from fighting poverty to respond to disasters (Source: Kettle, Hogan, & Saul, n.d.) Figure 4.8.1: The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty Gender is given special consideration in assessing human vulnerability owing to the different roles and circumstances associated with men and women in society, and especially in disaster preparation and response. The Training Manual on Gender and Climate Change developed by the Global Gender and Climate Alliance (GGCA) highlights that gender based vulnerability is not influenced by a single factor but takes into account a number of factors, especially in the case of women who tend to have less or limited access to assets when compared to men. These factors have been identified as determinant factors of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and include physical location, resources, knowledge, technology, power, decision making, potential, education, health care and food (GGCA, 2009). The size and composition of an individual or social group s asset base (natural, physical, social, human and financial) will determine to what extent they will be affected by, and respond to climate change impacts. A larger quantity and/or diversity of assets imply greater resilience and adaptive capacity. Conversely, a lack of assets will predispose individuals to increased vulnerability. While disasters create hardships for everyone, natural disasters kill, on average, more women than men or kill women at a younger age than men (WHO, 2010). In the Caribbean specifically, Kambon (2005) highlighted the varied responses of gender to all stages of a natural disaster (predominantly hurricanes) based on the observed social impacts of disasters following the 2004 Tropical Atlantic Hurricane season. Some of these differences are highlighted in Table

140 Table 4.8.1: Examples of Gender Differences in Response to Natural Disasters in the Caribbean PHASE ISSUES FEMALE MALE PRE-DISASTER EMERGENCY Differing Vulnerabilities - Biological Reproductive health needs No special restrictions - Social Restricted skill base Mobile skills - Cultural Exclusion from home construction Exclusion from child care responsibilities - Attitudinal (risk perception) Low level of risk tolerance High level of risk tolerance Different coping mechanisms TRANSITION (REHABILITATION AND RECOVERY) RECONSTRUCTION Needs Social Composition Differing priorities Differing access to resources; Differing access to power in the public sphere Suffer higher incidence of depression (crying and suicide ideation) Organising community singalongs and storytelling Weak access to wage earning possibilities Women prepared one-pot meals for the community Devoted more time to community and reproductive work Priorities for shelter, economic activity, food security, and health care Women slower to return to labour market Reconstruction programmes that embark on development without the inclusion of gender analysis tools Women s lack of involvement in governance mechanisms Alcoholism, gambling and dysfunctional behaviour Rescuing villagers and clearing roads Easier access to wages/income Men engaged in marooning teams for house rebuilding Spend more time in productive work; abandonment of families and domestic and/or other responsibilities Priorities for agriculture, infrastructural development and economic activity Men had easy access to the labour market Reconstruction programmes in construction and agricultural development that favour male participation Gender neutral governance mechanisms that do not recognize changing gender roles and relationships, and favour male participation (Source: Kambon, 2005; adapted from ECLAC, UNIFEM and UNDP, 2005) The Climate Modelling section highlights likely changes to occur for given climate and ocean variables for the Dominican Republic over the next few decades. The outputs, produced by both Regional Climate Models and Global Circulation Models, for the Dominican Republic are very similar to those of other islands in the Caribbean. Some of the more outstanding similarities include: 99

141 1. An increase in the mean annual temperature, the number of hot days and nights and the number of sunshine hours. 2. The likelihood of more intense cyclones resulting from warmer sea surface temperatures, although this is not conclusive. 3. The likelihood of a decline in mean annual rainfall, relative humidity and the total rainfall experienced during heavy rainfall events. 4. The relative disappearance of cold days and nights by the 2080s. These projections are associated with different degrees of certainty, based on the availability of observed (recorded) data, the outputs from model simulations, and the fact that some physical processes are too complex to be represented by these models. In light of this, current projections and the future reality may be different. However, some of the trends indicated in these projections (up to 2080) are currently being observed, and therefore the likelihood of these projections taking effect should not be discounted. Based on these projections, hotter overall temperatures will also impact on general well-being and comfort of citizens, and variable rainfall will have implications for groundwater catchment and availability if a decline prevails. While tourists prefer warmer conditions, there is a threshold to their level of comfort in warm or hot conditions. If conditions are too uncomfortable, they may seek other destinations with a more tolerable climate. Other inferences can be made based on the projections outputted by both the Regional Climate Model and Global Climate Models. What is certain is that current climate trends will change in one way or another, and will therefore affect those industries and activities that are climate sensitive and strongly dependent on natural resources. Gradual weather changes, SLR and the potential for increasing intensity (and possibly frequency which, although inconclusive, should remain a priority concern and be treated as such) of extreme weather events will have substantial effects on livelihood assets and activities in the Dominican Republic. The current and future effects of climate change will have significant implications for sector contributions to GDP, employment, existing poverty levels and other facets of economic and social development (Alcamo, et al., 2007; Wilbanks, et al., 2007). Overview Case Study: Bayahibe Community, Dominican Republic The Bayahibe community was selected as the community in which to implement the Community Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment methodology developed by The CARIBSAVE Partnership based on the established criteria and recommendations from the Government of the Dominican Republic. Bayahibe is a small, coastal town located to the south-east of the Dominican Republic with a population of approximately 3,000 residents (Places Online, 2011). Originally established as a fishing village, it is now a popular tourist destination as there are a few large resorts on the town s outskirts, and it is a part of the overall La Romana tourist zone which includes La Romana, Casa de Campo and Dominicus. Close to Bayahibe is the island of Saona, which forms part of the Parque Nacional del Este a protected area under the 1975 Environment and Protected Areas Law. The island of Saona is well known for its beaches and marine life, with numerous daily boat excursions to the island from Bayahibe. It is one of the more important tourist attractions in the area, and the Dominican Republic by extension, as it is the focus of a Community Tourism Development Plan being implemented by the Ministry of Tourism. 100

142 Given the coastal location of the community however, it remains very vulnerable to severe weather impacts in general, but especially to storm surge and SLR. In the past, hurricanes and other events swept away homes and destroyed the local natural environment. During the passage of Hurricane David in 1979, the worst to affect the country, the sea encroached as far inland as the entrance of the Bayahibe community, inundating several households and commercial buildings. Given the strong dependence on tourism and natural resources for various livelihoods within the community, short term weather and long term climate change impacts have several negative implications for the social and financial stability of residents and households in Bayahibe. The CARIBSAVE Community Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment methodology employed participatory tools to determine the context of these communities exposure to hazards, and a sustainable livelihoods framework to assess their adaptive capacity. All data were disaggregated by gender and the three main means of data collection were: (i) a community vulnerability mapping exercise and discussion which were the main activities in a participatory workshop; (ii) 3 focus groups (2 single-sex; and 1 for those in tourism-related livelihoods); and (iii) household surveys to determine access to five livelihood assets (financial, physical, natural, social and human). Livelihood strategies (combinations of assets) were evaluated to determine the adaptive capacity of households and consequently the entire community. Even though observations were specific to some parts within the study area, overall findings (assessments of vulnerability and adaptive capacity) are assumed to be representative for the entire communities. Leadership and development in the community The ways in which the community is maintained and develops over time is influenced by a number of organisations which operate in the area, owing to the presence of several economic and social interests. These include government entities which include the Ayuntamiento Distrito Municipal de Bayahibe (the Bayahibe Town Council) and the Ministry of Environment; and non-government organisations (the Hotel Association of Romana-Bayahibe, La Romana-Bayahibe Tourism Cluster and Fundación Dominicana de Estudios Marinos Inc, or FUNDEMAR). Natural resources and community livelihoods There are three main sectors of employment within the Bayahibe community. These include: 1. Tourism 2. Fisheries 3. The Public Sector Some of the more common livelihoods in Bayahibe are within the tourism industry. These include tour guiding, boat and dive operations, craft making and vending, and working in hotels, bars and restaurants as waitresses, ancillary staff, security officers, chefs, cooks and bartenders. Lower echelons of employment within the tourism industry are dominated by women, except within specific fields e.g. security and bartending. Fishing is another important source of income and tourism support activity in the community. Unlike tourism, there are more men working in this sector compared to women. Fishers make their income as catches are sold directly to food and beverage facilities in the area, as well as community residents. Other sectors of employment that are not directly related to tourism include education and the public sector, with a greater proportion of women than men, but with less biased gender ratios when compared to the tourism and fisheries sectors. Natural resources are abundant in both Bayahibe and Saona. Those resources that are especially crucial for local tourism include coastal and marine resources beaches and coral reefs. Natural and earth materials 101

143 such as seeds, shells and stones are necessary for craft making and vending. A healthy marine environment demonstrated by vibrant coral reefs, clear seas and abundance in marine biodiversity is also vital for all marine operators fishermen, dive operators and boat tour operators. Other resources in Bayahibe, some of which are used for subsistence purposes include freshwater springs and mangroves. Agriculture is not practiced in Bayahibe but some homes have small kitchen gardens. Community knowledge of climate change and observed changes to the natural environment Knowledge of climate change within the community is fair, and there is little disproportion between the knowledge and perceptions of men and women in the community. The majority of the residents have heard or discussed issues on climate and the environment on previous occasions; but more in relation to general environmental education, solid waste management, disaster management, sustainable tourism initiatives and environmental work by the tourism sector. These forums are typically organised by one or more of the non-governmental tourism organisations which operate in the area. However, there have been few forums which specifically addressed climate change, and only some residents and workers in the area attended on any given occasion, depending on how many persons were aware of the event. Residents therefore consider their knowledge of climate change to be very basic, because they have only limited information on the more technical aspects of the issue (e.g. modelling, projections, etc.). Despite limited technical knowledge, residents have observed changes in weather patterns over the last few years. These manifestations of climate change are considered detrimental, because they have mostly negative impacts on the community. In the words of some residents, some of these observations are as follows: It is very hot, hotter than before. Humans are causing the continuous warming and climatic variations that the planet is experiencing. Despite some saying that climate change does not exist, it does exist; and human impacts and damage to the environment over time is accelerating climate change. During October, it is expected that temperatures would be colder, but it is still very hot, and there are more storms. There is more rain than normal during the hurricane season, and during times where drought or dry conditions are expected, it rains. There are more intense natural phenomena, and rising sea levels. Other changes in the natural environment have been noted by residents, although these are the result of direct human impacts. Beaches undergo natural cycles of erosion and deposition with the temporary loss of sediment during periods of erosion. However, sand mining has become a significant contributor to the depletion of sand on beaches. Although the beaches on the coast of Bayahibe and the island of Saona are included in the protected area, sand mining occurs illegally in some instances, and eventually results in the reduction of the total beach area. Other issues include contamination of natural springs with faecal waste, an increase in solid waste and chemical pollution of the land and sea, and construction along the coastline and in mangrove areas which has changed the landscape. These direct anthropogenic impacts are cause for concern because they compromise the natural resource base and defences against some weather and wave impacts, and thereby increase community and livelihood exposure and vulnerability considerably. 102

144 Impacts of weather and climate on community livelihoods and development Some of the most vulnerable groups to extreme weather impacts, identified within Bayahibe, include the disabled, children, sick and home-bound residents, pregnant women, fishers, merchants, boat operators and people who work in culture and tourism. Events such as hurricanes, tropical storms and flooding result in loss of business and materials for numerous livelihood groups, and consequently, a decline in cash flow owing to a reduced income and/or a temporary jump in expenditure for repairs or reconstruction. Some livelihoods are completely compromised, and people are left without a source of income. At the household level, Bayahibe residents have suffered loss of property and loss of life on previous occasions. Some sectorspecific weather impacts are expounded below. 1. Tourism livelihoods: The ideal weather conditions for most tourism-based livelihood activities in the community include sunny days with little instability. Unstable weather normally associated with heavy and continuous rainfall, gusty winds and sea swells tends to discourage outdoor tourism activities. The area in which local hotels are concentrated can be inundated during heavy rainfall events. This notwithstanding, hotels and larger establishments (and people that are directly employed) are generally less affected than smaller groups and individuals (e.g. vendors, hair braiders, merchants and taxi operators) who depend heavily on the tourist market are impacted significantly, as bad weather causes most visitors to stay indoors. Consequently, these small business groups are unable to ply their trade, and lose out. However, despite mostly negative perceptions, severe weather was considered to have one positive outcome. To the benefit of craft makers, beaches and trees are disturbed significantly during storms and objects such as seeds and sea shells are exposed and scattered easily, leaving them to be spotted and used for jewellery by craft makers. 2. Fisheries sector: Marine operators in general prefer clear days with calm seas, light ocean currents and light winds which make water navigation less challenging. During severe weather, fishermen and marine recreational operators are forced to stay ashore. These groups may also suffer damage to their physical assets (boats, fisheries supplies and equipment) if these are not properly secured during strong winds or rough seas. Damaged assets subsequently delay their return back to work, and incur an expense to conduct repairs or replace equipment. 3. The Public sector: People working in the public sector are less affected by severe weather, insofar as income security is concerned, because there is little (if any) dependence on day-to-day earnings. However, some public sector infrastructure is located in hazard-prone areas and workers are affected during severe weather. For example, the City Hall is flooded during heavy rainfall and work is usually suspended as a result. Vulnerability of employees within the public sector may more so owe to household and family circumstances. Most locations in the community are generally vulnerable to hurricane (wind and rain) impacts. The integrity of the buildings compared to the force of the wind or water would determine the level of resilience (i.e. buildings made of zinc and wood in the community are more susceptible to hurricane damage, compared to concrete). There are some low lying areas in the community which are flooded during heavy rains, especially in the Punta de Bayahibe area. Flooding is a particularly serious concern for some community residents because there is no escape path when flooding occurs and residents are rendered relatively immobile until floodwaters recede. The only school in the community is located in the flood zone, and school is cancelled on almost every occurrence of a flood (more frequently during the wet season). Notably, this school is also used as a shelter for residents during the passage of hurricanes. Residents are aware of the danger, but those who take the chance to seek shelter at the school likely 103

145 perceive a lower level of risk on the school compound compared to their own homes. In addition to wind and rain impacts, the close proximity of the community to the sea makes residents, buildings, transport lanes and energy infrastructure particularly susceptible to storm surge and coastal inundation, although these impacts have been reported to be less severe in recent times. Landslides and drought events are of little consequence to the community. Vulnerable resources include beaches, reefs and mangroves which are affected to varying degrees during the passage of storms (see Biodiversity section). The Dominicus beach is flooded each time there is heavy rainfall, and the beach is also undergoing accelerated levels of erosion. The abundance of the national flower of the Dominican Republic the Bayahibe Flower, and a symbol of pride for the community is also significantly affected during the passage of storms. The inter-connectivity of the natural springs and coastal zone has implications for salt water intrusion, which has occurred and will be exacerbated by SLR (see Vulnerability Section for Water Quality and Availability). Weather impacts alone can be destructive. However, careless and negative human activities quite often contribute to the exacerbation of climate impacts, and the deterioration of the natural environment. In the instance of heavy rainfall, solid waste can pose a major problem. Waste that is improperly disposed of blocks drains and sewers that would normally channel surface water out to sea. Without effective drainage, floodwaters rise faster, and take longer to subside, thereby exacerbating inundation of low lying areas in the community. Oil seepage and spillage from boats is also another concern, because it harms or kills marine organisms, and reduces the aesthetics of the beach and sea which tourists are attracted to. On Saona, weather impacts affect all groups in general, among who are craftsmen, fishermen, beach vendors and hair braiders. There are no major hotel properties on the island. Residents and visitors who are on the island can be significantly affected by weather because it is difficult to travel between the island and mainland during short term weather instability. Some of the most important, but vulnerable areas on Saona include: (1) Mano Juan (2) Playa de Catuano (3) Laguna de los Flamencos (4) Playa del Cuerno (5) Playa del Gato and (6) Playa los Abanicos; because they are tourist attractions, or are municipal centres for residents on the island. Coping strategies and disaster management in the community Despite common underscores of gender sensitivity in literature and findings based on experiences in other communities (e.g. ECLAC, UNIFEM and UNDP, 2005; Kambon, 2005; GGCA, 2009), neither men nor women in Bayahibe specifically indicated many differential impacts by severe weather, except in the case of pregnant women, or sick or disabled men/women who are at a relative disadvantage. Additionally, vulnerable livelihood groups dominated by either males (fishing, boat operators) or females (hotel domestic workers, craft vendors) would suggest a greater vulnerability of the respective sex in relation to the specific livelihood activity. Otherwise, impacts are considered gender-neutral. It is evident however, that there are altogether more women engaged in vulnerable livelihood activities than men. 104

146 In the event of an emergency, residents in general engage in a number of mitigating activities: 1. Note hurricane shelter locations and seek shelter if necessary: Although there is no official hurricane shelter in Bayahibe, the school, two churches and large buildings in the community are used as shelters during the passage of a hurricane. 2. Protection of boats used in fisheries and marine recreation: Small boat owners haul their boats out of the sea, and large boats are taken to mangrove areas on Saona and Bayahibe for temporary shelter. 3. Prepare household, and store of necessary supplies: Food, drinking water and emergency supplies are acquired (if lacking) and stored in safe areas in the building, or taken to the shelters. Roofs, windows and doors are secured as much as possible (sometimes using tape, instead of shutters) to reduce damage. Provisions for the use of generators are made in the event of power loss during and after a hurricane event. 4. Create rescue teams (volunteers/red Cross): Rescue teams comprised of volunteers are established to conduct manageable search and rescue exercises as needed. Exercises that go beyond the scope of these teams have to be handled by external emergency services, which are some distance from the community. 5. Follow all directions of local authorities: Before, during and after an event, residents follow the instructions of emergency and disaster management authorities. Learning from the experiences of past weather events, the community is more aware of the preventive measures required to mitigate future impacts. In aim of reducing vulnerability to climate impacts, changes have been made at the government level to avoid the construction of buildings adjacent to the beach. Other activities include reconstructing and retrofitting buildings and cleaning debris from beaches. For environmental conservation and protection in general, measures have also been taken to reforest areas, reduce water and energy consumption, to maintain and improve the state of natural resources where possible, to reduce pollution and to educate not only the local community, but the entire population. 105

147 5. ADAPTIVE CAPACITY PROFILE FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to evolve in order to accommodate climate changes or to expand the range of vulnerability to which it can cope (Nicholls et al., 2007). Many small island states have low adaptive capacity and adaptation costs are high relative to GDP (Mimura et al., 2007). Overall the adaptive capacity of small island states is low due to the physical size of nations, limited access to capital and technology, shortage of human resource skills and limited access to resources for construction (IPCC, 2001). Low adaptive capacity, amongst other things, enhances vulnerability and reduces resilience to climate change (Mimura et al., 2007). While even a high adaptive capacity may not translate into effective adaptation if there is no commitment to sustained action (Luers and Moser, 2006). In addition, Mimura et al. (2007) suggest that very little work has been done on adaptive capacity of small island states; therefore this project aims to improve data and knowledge on both vulnerability and adaptive capacity in the Caribbean small island states to improve each country s capacity to respond to climate change. Information on the following factors was gathered, where possible to reflect adaptive capacity for each socio-economic sector: Resource availability (financial, human, knowledge, technical) Institutional and governance networks and competence Political leadership and commitment Social capital and equity Information technologies and communication systems Health of environment The information is arranged by sector, under the headings Policy, Management and Technology in order to facilitate comparisons across sectors and help decision makers identify areas for potential collaboration and synergy. Some of these synergies have been included in practical Recommendations and Strategies for Action which is the following section of this report. 106

148 5.1. Water Quality and Availability Policy The Government of the Dominican Republic has developed policies for multiple uses of water resources including the construction of dams for power generation, irrigation, industrial and civil use but it lacks a comprehensive water policy; existing policies that guide the use of water resources are set by various agencies and are highly fragmented (Grady and Younos, 2010; Luciano-Lopez, 2006). The institutional framework derived from the existing legislation is also fragmented and complex; within the existing framework, different institutions share responsibility for policy development and decision making, issuing of permits and provision of water services. The Secretariado Técnica de la Presidencia (Technical Secretariat of the President) is mandated with policy development; the Secretaria de Salud Pública (Secretary of Public Health) through the State Public Health and Social Security (SEPAS) regulates the quality of drinking water (FAO, 2000). Current tourism policy is largely focused on increasing the number of tourists to the country but does not consider the carrying capacity of hydrological resources and current wastewater policy does not take into account environmental considerations. Short term water resources policies formulated by the National Institute of Hydrological Resources (INDRHI) focus on the following priority areas: Basic information for the integrated management of water resources. Plan prevention of natural disasters, national hurricane tracking, improved communications network, expansion of the Seismic Network, action plans address the impact of extreme droughts and construction of flood protection. Assessment of groundwater availability. Expansion of Water Quality. Implementation of bi-lateral projects with Haiti, in shared watersheds (Artibonite and others). Watershed Management Project (PROMATREC) in the provinces Peravia, Santiago and Azua, as well as managing the Nizao River watershed (FAO, 2000) Policy with regard to irrigation and drainage is to expand irrigated areas by building new irrigation systems and improve the efficiency of existing ones. The INDRHI continues to encourage the formation of irrigation boards, as well as to strengthen applied research, rural extension, technical assistance, transfer and adoption of technology and training for existing water users' organisations in order to provide them with adequate managerial and technical capacity for the efficient management of irrigation systems (INDRHI, 2010). Although some consensus has been reached with regards to important water management issues, attempts to pass a new law for water resources based on Integrated Water Resource Management and the separation of roles have not been successful (Luciano-Lopez, 2006). Deficiencies within the country s water resources policies include the lack of water quality criteria for streams, the lack of ground water contamination standards, and the lack of enforcement to treat all wastewater discharge or effluent. With regards to climate change considerations on water resources the country has formed a National Committee to Combat Desertification and Drought, composed of 28 institutions, of which 14 are government and 14 NGOs. Other state institutes, universities, business associations, professionals, women's organisations and the national press are also participating in supporting this committee. 107

149 Management Various governmental agencies and non-governmental organisations share the responsibility for overseeing the water resources (Figure 5.1.1). The National Institute of Hydrological Resources (INDRHI) is the main national authority for water resources and along with other agencies has been given specific mandates for managing hydrographic regions. INDRHI controls and regulates the use of water and is supported by other institutions including (i) the National Institute for Potable Water and Sewerage Systems (INAPA); (ii) the Corporation for Water Supply and Sanitation in Santo Domingo (CAASD); (iii) the Corporation for Water Supply and Sanitation in Santiago (CORASSAN); and (iv) the Moca Sewerage System Corporation (CORAAMOCA). Other stakeholders are involved in specific aspects of water management: the Electrical Dominican Corporation regulates hydro-electric production and electrical distribution; the Secretary of the State for Agriculture oversees water uses in agricultural production; and the Dominican Agrarian Institute oversees water uses by settlements of farmers and for land distribution (FAO, 2000; USACE, 2002c). The Environment and Natural Resources Institute manages watersheds, and is developing a national environmental action plan ("Reducing conflicting water uses in the bi-national Artibonite River basin through development Reducing conflicting water uses in the bi-national Artibonite River basin through development ", 2010). Figure 5.1.1: Institutions Presently Intervening in the Potable Water and Sanitation Services Sector (Source: RTI International, 2006) The Dominican National Planning Office deals with flood control issues for the country and the Government has established regulatory, as well as public participatory measures to address natural disasters. The Pedro Henriquez Urena University is diagnosing water pollution of the Rio Ozama and the Rio Yaque del Norte and assisting the INDRHI with the management of watersheds (USACE, 2002c). There is a significant need for developing water supply management plans and accountability for water use or water consumption. The Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARN) was formed in 2000 after the passage of an environmental framework law. This law has started to establish basic 108

150 principles regarding issues such as the penalty for polluting and effluent limits (Werbrouck 2004). This new body of decision makers also mandated that every new hotel should include a wastewater treatment plant (Werbrouck 2004). The environmental legislative body has not yet addressed any regulations on water consumption (Grady and Younos, 2010). The Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources has begun work on the main watersheds in the Dominican Republic. A watershed management programme has been initiated for the Artibonite River basin with the objective of improving the quality of water available to the people of the Dajabon province Technology Recently the Government of the Dominican Republic has invested in technology to improve water availability and quality. Between August 2009 and February 2010, the Government, through the Institute National Water Resources (INDRHI), invested the sum of nearly DOP $ 468 million (US $12 million) in the rehabilitation of irrigation systems, acquisition and installation of pumping equipment, canal and drain maintenance drains, river defence works to prevent overflow and protect people and property from flooding (INDRHI, 2010). Work has also been done to improve irrigation service allowing an increase in levels of land use and the crop yields in agricultural production. This work has included a drainage rehabilitation project in Limón de Jimaní, cleaning of channels in Las Barías, Nizaíto, Fernando Valerio in Las Matas, Santa Cruz and Cañeo, in Esperanza. Floodgates in the Cristóbal channel were repaired and new ones installed (INDRHI, 2010). Efforts have been made in improving the water supply to rural communities in areas of low rainfall through the construction of 499 wells and the installation and repair of winches and pumps. The use of these technologies has benefitted some 15,000 people through enhanced water supply for human activities, agriculture and livestock production (INDRHI, 2010). 109

151 5.2. Energy Supply and Distribution Policy As evident from current energy documents in many countries both in the Caribbean and outside, tourism is not central in the consideration of wider strategies to reduce energy use (Brewster, 2005; Haraksingh, 2001). Yet, as this document has shown for the Dominican Republic, it would make sense to address energy use and emissions in tourism because the sector holds great potential for energy reductions and should thus be one of the focus points of policy considerations to de-carbonise the economy. The draft Climate Compatible Development Plan of the Dominican Republic includes a tourism strategy that recommends changing the way the tourism sector generates and consumes electricity, making the vehicle fleet of the sector less fossil fuel-intensive, and embarking on modern waste management in the tourism sector to achieve a 35% reduction in annual emissions compared to the BAU scenario (Government of the Dominican Republic, 2011). In addition, the Development Plan suggests that targeting the tourism sector in this way will allow the Dominican Republic to become one of the main destinations for ecotourism, boosting the sector in terms of visitors, revenue, and social and environmental impact. However, based on the cost abatement curves used to determine the best ways to achieve emissions reductions, the sector is not identified as one of the priorities since larger gains can be made at reduced cost in the power, transport, forestry and agriculture sectors. It is vital for governments to engage in tourism climate policy, because tourism is largely a private sector activity with close relationships with the public sector at supranational, national, regional and local government levels, and through politics, there is thus an outreach to all tourism actors. Furthermore, governments are involved in creating infrastructure such as airports, roads or railways, and they also stimulate tourism development, as exemplified by marketing campaigns. The choices and preferences of governments thus create the pre-conditions for tourism development and low carbon economies. Finally, there is growing consensus that climate policy has a key role to play in the transformation of tourism towards sustainability, not least because technological innovation and behavioural change will demand strong regulatory environments. As described earlier and pointed out by OECD (2010), emissions of greenhouse gases essentially represent a market failure where there is little incentive to innovate. It has been shown that the fairest and most efficient way of reducing emissions is to consider increased fuel prices, i.e. to introduce a tax on fuel or emissions. Carbon taxes may be feasible for accommodation, car transport and other situations where tourism activities cause environmental problems. Taxation is generally more acceptable if taxes are earmarked for a specific use, which in this case could for instance include incentives for the greening of tourism businesses. Tax burdens would then be cost neutral for tourism, but help to speed up the greening of the sector. If communicated properly, businesses as well as tourists will accept such instruments, and the economic effect can be considerable. The Maldives charge, for instance, US $10 per bednight spent in hotels, resorts, guesthouses and yachts, which accounts for 60% of government revenue (McAller et al., 2005). Money collected in various ways could be re-invested in sustainable energy development. Haraksingh (2001), for instance, outlines that there is a huge potential to use solar energy. Both economical and noneconomical technical solutions to reduce the energy dependency of islands and coastal states in the Caribbean could thus be implemented based on regulation, market based approaches and incentives, as well as through financing derived from voluntary and regulatory carbon markets. Policy intervention is 110

152 however needed to initiate these processes. Overall, Haraksingh (2001: 654; see also Headley, 1998) suggests that: The Caribbean region is a virtual powerhouse of solar and other renewable sources of energy waiting to be exploited. It has the advantage of not having winters when hot water demands can increase from summer by approximately 70% in cold climates. Solar water heaters for the tourism industry and domestic and commercial usage have perhaps the greatest potential. There is a general commitment to the development of RE, but matters have not gone very far beyond this. The movement towards greater implementation of RE technologies is gaining strength, but there is a large gap between policy goals and actual achievement. Clearly, much work still needs to be done. Government fiscal incentives, greater infrastructure for policy development as well as joint venture partnerships are needed in the Caribbean region for a smooth transition. The use of incentives to promote energy efficiency rather than taxes has been identified in the draft Climate Compatible Development Plan of the Dominican Republic (Government of the Dominican Republic, 2011), particularly for the sale of more fuel efficient vehicles, developing the bio-fuels industry and creating a distribution network for compressed natural gas vehicles Management Any action on reducing energy use and emissions of greenhouse gases has to begin with a review of emission intensities, to ensure that action taken will lead to significant reductions. From a systems perspective, hundreds of minor actions will not yield anywhere near as much as one change in the major energy consuming sub-sectors. Aviation is thus, as outlined earlier, a key sector to focus on, followed by hotels, as these are comparably energy intense, while car travel is not as relevant. Cruise ships will often be the third most relevant energy sub-sector. This is however dependent on whether fuels are bunkered in the respective country or not. Tourism management is primarily concerned with revenue management, as the ultimate goal of any economic sector is to generate profits and jobs. A general critique of tourism management in this regard must be that it is too occupied with revenue, rather than profits as well as multiplier effects in the economy. This is an important distinction because profits have been declining in many tourism sub-sectors, such as aviation, where revenues have been increasing through continuously growing tourist volumes, while profits have stagnated. This is equally relevant for average length of stay, which is falling worldwide to maintain bednight numbers, destinations have consequently had to permanently increase tourist numbers. Working pro-actively on these is consequently a highly relevant management task. In an attempt to look at both profits and emissions of greenhouse gases, a number of concepts have been developed. One of the most important overall objectives can be defined as reduce the average energy use/emissions per tourist. Table illustrates the situation for a number of countries in terms of weighted average emissions per tourist (air travel only), as well as emissions per tourist for the main market. The table can serve as a benchmark for inter-country comparison. 111

153 Country Table 5.2.1: Average weighted emissions per tourist by country and main market, 2004 Av weighted emissions per tourist, air travel (return flight; kg CO 2 ) * International tourist arrivals (2005) Total emissions air travel (1,000 tonne CO 2 ) Emissions per tourist, main market (return flight; kg CO 2 ) and % share of total arrivals * Anguilla , (USA; 67%) Bonaire 1,302 62, (USA; 41%) Comoros 1,754 17,603 ** 31 1,929 (France; 54%) Cuba 1,344 2,319,334 3, (Canada; 26%) Jamaica 635 1,478, (USA; 72%) Madagascar 1, , ,159 (France; 52%) Saint Lucia 1, , (USA; 35%) Samoa , (New Zealand; 36%) Seychelles 1, , ,935 (France; 21%) Sri Lanka 1, , (India; 21%) Notes: *Calculation of emissions is based on the main national markets only, using a main airport to main airport approach (in the USA: New York; Canada: Toronto; Australia: Brisbane); **Figures for (Source: Gössling et al., 2008) A strategic approach to reduce per tourist emissions would now focus on further analysis of markets. To this end, an indicator is the arrival to emission ratio, based on a comparison of the percentage of arrivals from one market to the emissions caused by this market (Table 5.2.2). For instance, tourists from the USA account for 67% of arrivals in Anguilla, but cause only 55% of overall emissions. The resultant ratio is 0.82 (55% divided by 67%). The lower the ratio, the better this market is for the destination, with ratios of <1 indicating that the market is causing lower emissions per tourist than the average tourist (and vice versa). Arrivals from source markets with a ratio of <1 should thus be increased in comparison with the overall composition of the market in order to decrease emissions, while arrivals from markets with a ratio of >1 should ideally decline. In the case of Anguilla, the replacement of a tourist with a ratio of >1 in favour of one tourist from the USA (ratio: 0.8) would thus, from a GHG emissions point of view, be beneficial. However, where arrivals from one market dominate, it may be relevant to discuss whether the destination becomes more vulnerable by increasing its dependence on this market. Table 5.2.2: Arrivals to emissions ratios Primary market Emissions ratio Secondary market Emissions ratio Third market Emissions ratio Fourth market Emissions ratio Anguilla Bonaire Jamaica Saint Lucia USA 0.8 UK 2.5 USA 0.5 Netherlands USA USA 0.9 UK 2.0 Barbados 0.1 Canada 1.0 (Source: Gössling et al., 2008) To integrate emissions and revenue, energy intensities need to be linked to profits. An indicator in this regard can be eco-efficiencies, i.e. the amount of emissions caused by each visitor to generate one unit of revenue. This kind of analysis is generally not as yet possible for Caribbean countries due to the lack of data on tourist expenditure by country and tourist type (e.g. families, singles, wealthy-healthy-older-people, visiting friends and relatives, etc.), but Figure illustrates this for the case of Amsterdam/Netherlands (Gössling et al., 2005). By assigning eco-efficiencies, it is possible to identify the markets that generate a 112

154 high yield for the destination, while only causing marginal emissions. For instance, in the case of Amsterdam, a German tourist causes emissions of 0.16 kg CO 2 per of revenue, while a visitor from Australia would emit 3.18 kg CO 2 to create the same revenue. Figure 5.2.1: Eco-efficiencies of different source markets, Amsterdam 113 (Source: Gössling et al. 2005) These indicators can serve as a basis for restructuring markets, possibly the most important single measure to reduce the energy dependence of the tourism system. However, further analysis is required to distinguish revenue/profit ratios; leakage factors/multipliers (to identify the tourist most beneficial to the regional/national economy) and to integrate market changes into an elasticity analysis (to focus on stable, price inelastic markets) (see also Becken, 2008; Schiff and Becken, 2010). No study that integrates these factors has been carried out so far, but further developing such strategic tools for revenue and energy management would appear useful for the Caribbean. In Barbados, a survey was carried out in February 2011 to better understand tourist perspectives on spending, length of stay, climate change and mitigation, yielded some interesting results. In this regard, 71% of respondents stated that they would have liked to stay longer, and 61% stated that they had spent less money than planned. It is likely that similar results could be found throughout the region, and further research needs to be carried out to identify how this potential can be realised: longer stays increase the share of money retained in the national economy, primarily in accommodation, while higher expenditure also contributes to increasing national tourism revenue, notably with a lower leakage factor, as spending for air travel will usually entail smaller profit shares and higher leakage. The Barbados study also revealed that 73% of respondents are willing to drive less by car, 70% stated willingness to use smaller cars, and 81% are positive about electric cars. With regard to A/C use, one of the major factors in energy use in hotels, tourists also support resource savings: 71% stated to be willing to use fans rather than air conditioning, 90%

155 agree that switching off air conditioning when leaving the room is acceptable, and 65% agree on using air conditioning at a 1 C higher temperature than the set room temperature actually used during the stay. Further options to reduce energy use and emissions exist for businesses focusing on staff training. For instance, Hilton Worldwide saved energy and water costs in the order of US $16 million in the period , primarily through behavioural change of employees as a result of a training in resource efficiency. These measures have to be discussed on the business level and are mostly relevant to accommodation and activities managers. As about 15% of a typical Caribbean hotel s operating cost may be attributable to energy usage (Pentelow and Scott, 2011), management related reductions in energy use of 20% would correspond to savings of 3% on the overall economic baseline. This should represent a significant incentive to engage in energy management. For further details on energy management see Gössling (2010). The strategies outlined in the draft Climate Compatible Development Plan that are to be implemented in the tourism sector look at waste management, the way the sector generates and uses electricity and the efficiency of the vehicle fleet that serves the sector (Government of the Dominican Republic, 2011). Waste management and the use of electricity are initiatives that can be undertaken without major investments in technology and many cases relate to the training of staff and managing tourist behaviours as described Technology The potential for saving energy through technological innovation has been documented for a growing number of case studies. For instance, luxury resort chain Evason Phuket & Six Senses Spa, Thailand, reports payback times of between 6 months and ten years for measures saving hundreds of thousands of Euros per year. Examples of the economics of resource savings from the Caribbean include five case studies in Jamaica (Meade and Pringle, 2001). The results from this study are summarised in Table

156 Table 5.2.3: Jamaican case studies for resource savings Property Sandals Couples Ocho Swept Away Negril Cabins Sea Splash Negril Rios Number of rooms Initial investment $68,000 $50,000 $44,000 $34,670 $12,259 ($20,000 in equipment, $30,000 in consulting fees) Water saved (m 3 ) 45,000 31,000 95,000 11,400 7,600 Electricity saved (MWh) Fuel saved (l) 100,000 (diesel) 172,000 (LPG) 325,000 (diesel) Financial savings $261,000 $134,000 $294,000 $46,000 over 2.75 years. $46,000 since July 1998 $5,000 on laundry chemicals since August 1998 Return on investment 190% over 2 years 200% over 16 months 675% over 19 months 48% 151% over 2.5 years Payback period 10 months 6 months 4 months (Source: Meade and Pringle, 2001) It is beyond the scope of this report to list all technical measures to reduce energy use, and readers are referred to Gössling (2010) for further guidance: case studies provided in this book indicate technology based energy savings potentials of up to 90% for accommodation. Often, it is also economically feasible to replace conventional, fossil fuel based energy systems with renewable ones, with payback times of 3-7 years (e.g. Dalton et al., 2009). An example study in the Caribbean is provided by Bishop and Amaratunga (2008). This study provides evidence on the economic suitability of technological innovation to generate renewable energy in Barbados. Bishop and Amaratunga (2008) propose a 10 MW wind energy scheme based on micro wind turbines of both horizontal and vertical axis configurations, and at costs as low as BDS $0.19 per kwh. The scheme would also lead to savings of 6,000-23,000 t CO 2 and avoided fuel costs of BDS $ million. The authors highlight that small wind turbines can be competitive with conventional wind farms. The strategies being put forward in the draft Climate Compatible Development Plan for reducing emissions in the Dominican Republic s tourism sector will require some investment in technology (Government of the Dominican Republic, 2011). In particular where the method of electricity generation is to be changed or improved or the vehicle fleet is to be upgraded to improve efficiency. As outlined, managers will usually be interested in any investment that has pay back times as short as 5-7 years, while longer times are not favourable. While this would support investments into any technology with payback times of up to 7 years, it also opens up opportunities to use the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) as an instrument to finance emission reductions. The CDM is one of the flexible instruments of the Kyoto Protocol with two objectives: 1. To assist parties not included in Annex I in achieving sustainable development and in contributing to the ultimate objective of the convention of cost-efficient emission reductions; 2. To assist parties included in Annex I in achieving compliance with their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments. 115

157 The CDM is the most important framework for the supply of carbon credits from emission reduction projects, which are approved, validated and exchanged by the UNFCCC secretariat. CDM projects can be implemented in all non-annex I countries, and are certified by operational entities (OE) designated by UN COP (IPCC, 2007). The CDM thus generates credits, typically from electricity generation from biomass, renewable energy projects, or capture of CH 4, often a problem in the context of waste management, which can be sold in the regulatory or the voluntary carbon markets. As such, it is a novel instrument to restructure islands and low lying coastal states towards low carbon economies. Discussions are already ongoing in the Caribbean on how to use the CDM in restructuring the energy system. It is worth noting, however, that emission reductions achieved through the CDM do not apply to national economies, rather they apply to the purchaser s economy. While the CDM is thus an instrument to achieve technological innovation, it is not an instrument to achieve carbon neutral status. Further funds can be derived through voluntary payments by tourists. For instance, Dalton et al. (2008) found that 49% of Australian tourists were willing to pay extra for renewable energy systems, out of which 92% were willing to pay a premium corresponding to 1 5% above their usual costs. In another study, Gössling and Schumacher (2010) found that 38.5% of a sample of international tourists in the Seychelles expressed willingness to pay for carbon neutrality of their accommodation, out of which 48% stated they would be willing to pay a premium of at least 5 per night. While these values are not representative, they nevertheless indicate that there is considerable potential to involve tourists emotionally and financially in strategies to implement renewable energy schemes. Such options should be further explored Summary The Dominican Republic is clearly vulnerable to rising oil prices and climate policies. However, there are various tools that can be employed to reduce energy use in the country s tourism sector, possibly in the order of an estimated 20% within two years. Aviation is an exception, as the restructuring of markets would take longer. Attention has to be paid to increasing tourist arrival numbers, which can outweigh achievements in efficiency gains. Adaptation should focus on policy, management and technology. Some of the following issues have been considered at the national level and are incorporated into the National Energy Plan for the Dominican Republic (CNE, 2004), with the intention of further development or implementation of these proposals during the 10/11 year period and beyond. The draft Climate Compatible Development Plan outlines the activities that should be carried out to reduce annual emissions by up to 65% compared to the results in the BAU scenario (Government of the Dominican Republic, 2011). However, the focus of the Plan is not directly on the tourism sector and therefore there is also a need to apply these areas of work to the tourism sector with the aim of reducing its contribution to the national carbon footprint, whilst keeping in line with national development objectives: Policy, including regulation, taxation and incentives, is important to increase pressure on stakeholders to engage with energy management this is an area that is generally seen as less relevant and efforts to engage significant stakeholder numbers will demand strong policy environments. Vast options exist to reduce energy demand through carbon management. In particular, this includes a rethinking of markets based on their eco-efficiency, this can potentially lead to increasing turnover and declining energy costs, while also bringing greater attention to the diversification of markets. Carbon management also means to address average length of stay, and measures to stimulate spending evidence indicates that there is considerable scope to increase both. Maintaining bednight numbers without addressing losses in average length of stay does 116

158 otherwise, meaning to be stuck in a logic of volume growth, which is likely to prove a problem when the cost of transport increases and when serious climate policy is introduced. The introduction of low-carbon technology can both reduce energy demands (energy-efficiencies) and the use of fossil fuels, which can be replaced by renewable energies. Often, restructuring existing energy systems can be cost effective, and even lead to savings. Finally, the Clean Development Mechanism and voluntary payments for carbon offsetting may be used as means to reduce energy use, and to increase the share of renewable energy in national energy mixes. 117

159 5.3. Agriculture and Food Security Policy The Ministry of Agriculture of the Dominican Republic has commenced a programme in risk management of natural disasters and climate change which includes planning for agricultural development (PLACC, 2011). To this end, the Department of Risk Management and Climate Change, assigned to the Deputy Minister for Agricultural Sector Planning, has among its missions, to reduce, mitigate, adapt and develop plans to prevent environmental effects of agricultural development activities. The agency was created to provide effective responses for the agricultural sector before, during and after natural disasters. As part of its programme, the Department of Risk Management and Climate Change will coordinate with the Ministry of Environment and Planning, Economy and Development to rationalise a land use plan for the agricultural sector and zoning of crops according to vulnerability of agricultural areas, and organise responses to adverse events that affect agricultural production system. Another prerogative of the organisation is to develop and implement plans with mitigation measures to reduce disaster risks and prepare agricultural communities to deal with climate change impacts at the farm level Technology In terms of technological adaptation at the national level, the following measures for the agricultural sector are identified in the First National Communication (World Bank, 2009): An increased use of weather services by agricultural producers, such as early alert systems capable of forecasting droughts, agricultural fires, plagues and diseases and forecasting systems for crop yields and agricultural production. Development of educational programs for farmers on the use of sustainable methods in agriculture aimed at soil and humidity conservation and avoiding soil salinity. Development of new crop varieties, resistant to high temperatures, drought, and more tolerant to lack of humidity in soil. At the farm level, low agricultural productivity is directly related to rural poverty and low use of technology. Although technology is available and used by some farmers, lack of access to financial resources prevent many rural farmers from adopting the technologies they need to improve their production and their incomes. However, new low cost technologies are being introduced into some rural areas in the Dominican Republic. For example Montero (2010) reports that fish farming was recently introduced in the Hondo Valley in addition to greenhouses covered with plastic raffia and anti-insect nets which have so far increased production of tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, melon, cherries and cantaloupe Farmers Adaptation - Initiatives and Actions Montero (2010) observes that Hondo Valley is amongst the poorest municipalities of the Dominican Republic, and more than 98% of the farmers in the area routinely did not store their products because they have to sell produce to pay off debts. The increased production levels has inspired the use of a silo, which is a structure designed to store grain and other bulk materials. 118

160 Other farmers, through trial and error, have changed their traditional crop planting area to other parts of land that have more favourable climatic conditions and are less prone to disease. Martínez and Reyes (2010) report that in the eastern region farmers have begun to use technologies such as selective seeding, drip irrigation, proper fertilisation and rational application of pesticides for yam production. With these practices, producers have obtained higher profits because of greater crop yields and improved crop quality. Other relevant results for these applications are reduced negative impact on the environment and more efficient use of water resources. 119

161 5.4. Human Health Policy The two major legislative instruments pertaining to health care in the Dominican Republic are the General Health Act 2001 and the Social Security Act One of the outcomes of the General Health Act 2001, relevant to climate change, provided for the creation of a National Health System and Dominican Social Security system to safeguard against social ills in the society (SEMARENA, 2009). The Decadal Health Plan for the Dominican Republic aimed to develop the National Health System. It does not address climate change but focuses on malaria targets for 2015 and dengue (Government of the Dominican Republic, 2006). In the National Development Strategy of the Dominican Republic, Item 10 deals with maintaining a sustainable environment and adequate adaptation to climate change and with specific reference to health the line of action in the prevention, mitigation and reversing, in coordination with relevant local authorities the effects of climate change on health in the country (Government of the Dominican Republic, n.d.). With respect to health in general, the National Development Strategy proposed three objectives. The first involves ensuring, through the National Health System, that access to health care, health promotion and disease promotion are further developed and promoted. The others involve ensuring universal health insurance while decreasing overall spending and ensuring the universality, equity, solidarity and sustainability of the assurance against the risks of old age, ability and survival (Government of the Dominican Republic, n.d.). Specifically the plan also places a time limitation of 5 years on three main initiatives which are the reform of the health sector and health insurance, reform of social institutions and the creation of budgets at the municipal level (Government of the Dominican Republic, n.d.). With respect to malaria, in 1964 the Malaria Act 110 was created in order to conduct a campaign of eradication (SEMARENA, 2003). Currently there is a National Strategic Plan for Dengue and Malaria control (SEMARENA, 2009). Table 5.4.1: Total expenditure on health as a % of GDP from in the Dominican Republic Year % of GDP *GGEH as % of (Source: WHO, 2011) * General Government Expenditure on Health (GGEH) as a % of General Government Expenditure (GGE) Table shows the total expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP between 1995 and 2009 in the Dominican Republic. The averages of the public expenditure on health expressed as a percentage of GDP is 5.76% for 1995 to 2009, however, other sources give significantly lower estimates. For instance UNDP (2010) estimates that between 2000 and 2007, the average was estimated to be 1.9% of total GDP. The Decadal Health Plan aims for health expenditure as a percentage of GDP to be at 5% by 2015 (Government of the Dominican Republic, 2006). The 2010 Human Development Report found that between 2000 and 2008, 13.1% of the population was estimated to be severely deprived of access to basic health care (UNDP, 2010). Further, the country s current high disparity in income generation has affected the health sector. It is expected that it will 120

162 continue to affect the resources available to the poor and by extension deterioration of the social condition of the society (PAHO, 2007b). This income disparity is mainly due to the fact that unemployment rates are high in the country. In 2008, the population to employment ratio as a percentage of the population was 53.3% and 57.6% of the population was employed (UNDP, 2010). In the National Development Strategy one objective related to the disparity between the urban and rural access to services and economic opportunities identifies the need to increase social spending in education, health and community services (Government of the Dominican Republic, n.d.). The complexity of the employment issue is, to an extent, compounded by the fact that unemployment rates are higher among persons who have attained a secondary school education or higher (35.3%) than those who have only attained a primary school education or less (12.3%) between 2000 and 2008 (UNDP, 2010). This can result in a drain on skilled personnel important in sustaining the economy. The issue of income disparity also ties into poverty. In the Dominican Republic 13.2% of the population is at risk of multi-dimensional poverty and 48.5% of the population were considered to be below the national poverty line between (UNDP, 2010). The National Development Strategy has also devised specific objectives to reduce and alleviate poverty in the country. These includes the stimulation and consolidation community networks, as well as improvements in the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of poverty reduction policies and the promotion of poverty reduction programmes and projects (Government of the Dominican Republic, n.d.) Management The Ministry of Public Health (Ministerio de Salud Pública) and the National Health Council is the main body that oversees management of the health care sector. The Ministry of the Environment also has an important role, particularly because of the problems associated with pollution of water catchments and the potable water supply following grave issues result in heavy flooding events. The administrative structure of the Ministry of health has undergone a process of de-centralisation since 1998 and currently includes 39 Health Areas, each consisting of an Epidemiological Unit (SEMARENA, 2009). The main health care institutions in the country are the Prof. Juan Bosch Trauma and Surgical Hospital, Dr. Robert Reid Cabral Children s Hospital and the Padre Billini Teaching Hospital. In all there are 335 public and private health institutions (Ministerio de Salud Publica, 2010). Along with malaria, the National Center of Control of Tropical diseases (CENCET) has the responsibility for the control of dengue, filariasis, intestinal parasitism and other tropical diseases (SEMARENA, 2009). Coming out of a health report in 2006, it was noted that mortality and morbidity was under reported to as much as 45-55% and similarly morbidity records were deficient (SEMARENA, 2009). As the National Development Strategy indicates, focus is being placed on strengthening the health sector. The Dominican Republic has a Human Development Index (HDI) of 88 and is classified as a Medium Human Development Index country being 3 rd in this category (UNDP, 2010). In assessment of the personal dimensions of well being between 2006 and 2009 revealed that 52% stated they were satisfied with the quality of health care in the same period. Further, it found that 80% of respondents were satisfied with their personal health and 57% were satisfied with their standard of living (UNDP, 2010). With respect to the Millennium Development Goal of reducing the incidence of malaria by 2015 over 75% of current level has been achieved in the Dominican Republic. In 2004 there were 26 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and this figure dropped to 16.8 in It is anticipated with current measures being employed the rate may be dropped to 6.6 in 2015 (Ministerio de Salud Publica, 2010). 121

163 To treat malaria, insecticide treated nets and indoor residual spraying are the most common interventions used in the Dominican Republic. In general, the latter is usually only employed during epidemics. In 2006, insecticide resistance started and it is proposed to continue in the future. Patients of all ages can receive free diagnostic testing in the public sector. It has been observed that the confirmed cases per 1,000 was significantly higher than the annual blood examination rate in the early part of 2000, however, initiatives to arrest the spread of the disease resulted in increases epidemiological surveying and currently the percentage of annual blood sample examination is relatively speaking, higher than the incidence rate of malaria cases (WHO, 2010a). To protect against pests and other diseases as well as to ensure overall health, the USAID/RED program has undertaken initiatives in Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) management and compliance. The agency has also targeted pesticide use in the agricultural sector with the goal of protecting ecosystems and human health and seeks to encourage the use of Integrated Pest Management (Juergens et al., 2011). 122

164 5.5. Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries Adaptation to climate change requires adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC, 2007). The adaptive capacity of ecosystems is the property of a system to adjust its characteristics or behaviour, in order to expand its coping range under existing climate variability, or future climate conditions (Brooks & Adger, 2004). Despite global action to reduce greenhouse gases, climate change impacts on biodiversity are unavoidable due to climate inertia. Natural ecosystems have long demonstrated the ability to adapt to changes in their physical environment. However, the rate at which climate change occurs may exceed the rate at which ecosystems can adapt. Furthermore, natural environments, which are already stressed by human activities, have compromised ability to cope with and to adapt to climate change. This adaptive capacity assessment thus considers the country s ability to conserve its biodiversity through traditional natural resource management approaches and to implement strategies to protect its natural environment. Many small island and low lying coastal states generally have low adaptive capacity for some of the same reasons that they tend to be highly vulnerable to climate change, i.e. small physical size, limited access to capital and technology, shortage of human and financial resources (Mimura, et al., 2007). The ability of ecosystems to adjust to projected climatic changes depends not only on their inherent resilience but also on the ability of resource users to make required adjustments. By addressing shortcomings in the above indicators adaptive capacity can be built. Six principles for adaptation have been identified by Natural England, the UK Government s advisor on the natural environment. Many elements of these principles are neither new nor climate change specific and so may be applied within the Caribbean context. The principles are as follows (not in order of priority): Table 5.5.1: Biodiversity: Six Principles for Climate Change Adaptation Conserve existing biodiversity Reduce sources of harm not linked to climate Develop ecologically resilient and varied landscapes Establish ecological networks through habitat protection, restoration and creation Make sound decisions based on analysis Integrate adaptation and mitigation measures into conservation management, planning and practice Source: (Hopkins, Allison, Walmsley, Gaywood, & Thurgate, 2007) Policy Climate change adaptation strategies for biodiversity can either support or violate principles of equity, cultural norms and sustainable development depending on the policies that guide these actions. The capacity of countries to implement climate change adaptation strategies will therefore be enhanced by polices that take advantage of linkages between socio-economic and environmental sectors, and that gain the support of local communities and stakeholders. The Dominican Republic has demonstrated an ethos of conservation evidenced through its creation and continued strengthening of a legal and institutional framework that seeks to involve the relevant sectors such as health, water and tourism. Dominican environmental policies are based on the General Law on the Environment and Natural Resources (Law 64-00) and supported by the Constitution of the Republic (instituted in 2010), which incorporates the 123

165 environmental component into national policies in recognition of a healthy environment as the basis of sustainable economic and ecological development of the country. The legal framework and policy guidelines have been based on international agreements and although the Dominican Republic has not yet developed a National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP) it has aimed to meet the objectives of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). Its policies on the protection of biodiversity take into consideration the human component of ecosystem interactions, promote the sustainable use of natural resources and are integrated into poverty reduction policies and national development. Case in point is the significant contribution made by the National Plan Quisqueya Verde (PNQV) towards maintaining forest habitat. The ongoing plan began in 1997 by Decree No , with the objective to improve the living conditions of rural populations through the use of natural resources, employment generation, environmental protection and strengthening coordination between state institutions and civil society organisations working for sustainable development. As early as 2003 the success of the PNQV became evident as an inventory of land use and cover showed an increase in coverage of the coniferous forest, dense forest, broadleaf forest, cloud forest, dry forest and dry scrub. Environmental policy guidelines have been based on international agreements with which the country has made significant progress in its active participation. The following is a list of international agreements to which the Dominican Republic is a party. 124

166 Table 5.5.2: Multilateral Environmental Agreements to which the Dominican Republic is Party List of signed Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEA) Conventions on the Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone, High Seas, Fishing and Conservation of Living Resources of the High Seas and the Continental Shelf. Convention on the Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone, Resolution 300 of Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter. Resolution , dated 27 August International Convention on Civil Liability for Damages Caused by Pollution of Sea Waters by Hydrocarbons and its annex. Resolution , dated 20 December Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Resolution , dated 17 June Protocol Related to Specially Protected Areas and Wildlife of the Convention for the Protection and Development of the Marine Environment in the Wider Caribbean. Date of adoption of the Protocol: 18 January On 11 June 1991 its annexes were adopted. Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer and its Protocol from Montreal. Resolution 59-92, dated 8 December United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity. Resolution 25-96, dated 2 October United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought or Desertification, particularly in Africa. Resolution 99-97, dated 10 June Central American Alliance for Sustainable Development (ALIDES). Declaration of the Dominican Republic dated 6 November 1997/Not binding. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Resolution , dated 18 June Cartagena Convention for the Protection and Development of the Marine Environment in the Wider Caribbean. Resolution , dated 15 July International Convention for the Prevention of Waste Discharges from Ships (MARPOL 73/78). Resolution of Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal. Resolution 10-03, dated 10 June London and 1992 Copenhagen Amendments to the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer. Resolution (GO NO d/f Convention related to Wetlands of International Importance (RAMSAR). Resolution , dated 8 November Kyoto Protocol/United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change signed in Kyoto. Ratified by Resolution of Central American Commission on the Environment and Development. Tegucigalpa Protocol dated 13 December 1991, which creates SICA. Association Agreement between SICA and the Dominican Republic dated 10 December 2003, which entered into force on 27 September Beijing Amendments to the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer adopted at the Fifth Meeting of the Conference of the Parties, held in Beijing, from 29 November to 3 December Ratified on 13 October Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs). Resolution , dated 6 December Rotterdam Convention for the Application of the Prior Informed Consent Procedure for Certain Hazardous Pesticides and Chemicals in International Trade. Resolution of Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety of the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity. Resolution 10-06, dated 3 February Free Trade Agreement between the Dominican Republic, Central America and the United States of America. Resolution , dated 6 September 2005/ Law , dated 20 November Convention on Environmental Cooperation between the Dominican Republic, Central America and the United States of America. Signed on 18 February 2006, at the OAS Headquarters in Washington Management Successful implementation of international and national policies depends on related institutional arrangements. A nation s adaptive capacity is greater if the roles and responsibilities for implementation of adaptation strategies are well delineated by central governments and are clearly understood at national, regional, and local levels (Burton, 1996). Oversight of biodiversity is the responsibility of the Ministry 125

167 of Environment and Natural Resources, which is organised into five sub-secretariats: Environmental Management, Soil and Water, Forest Resources, Protected Areas and Biodiversity, Coastal Marine Resources. The Ministry is responsible for making policies, implementing environmental regulations, and applying an integral State policy to protect and regulate natural resources to achieve sustainable development. Guided by State policy the Ministry holds the principle of participation that seeks to engage communities and the private sector in environmental decisions and management. The Dominican Republic has been strengthening its institutions and building the capacity of technical staff, as well as the effectiveness and sensitivity of its governmental authorities. Significant advances have been made in research, management and conservation of biodiversity, as well as in law enforcement, and in the declaration of new protected areas. The value of research in informing management decisions and biodiversity conservation is recognised and the country has given much support to research projects and studies on its biodiversity. For example research is currently being conducted on two IUCN endangered species, the Hispaniola hutia (Plagiodontia aedium) and Hispaniola solenodon (Solenodon paradoxus) so that a comprehensive conservation plan may be constructed. Community participation and the involvement of the tourism sector in environmental management are at times encouraged. As part of the PNQV, a reforestation project to plant 2 million trees across the country in 2008, involved hundreds of organisations, including private companies and non-governmental agencies. The Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources and the Ministry of Tourism, have begun to coordinate actions to maintain protected areas and to lessen the negative impacts on protected areas. Institutional weaknesses exist mainly because of limited financial resources and personnel. Within the fisheries sector, for example, there are major deficiencies in the institutional and organisational system for sustainable development and management of the fisheries and aquaculture resources (Mateo & Haughton, 2004). There is no formal fisheries management plan and the capacity for enforcing the regulations is limited; because of the lack of regulation, the international trade in conch from the Dominican Republic is banned by the Convention of International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES). There is however, an annual work programme and a co-management approach to freshwater fisheries. Further problems have arisen from a top-down approach to natural resource management, which has excluded local communities and aboriginal people outside the development, decision making and co-management biodiversity conservation. Protected Areas Strengthening protected area (PA) networks is one way of adopting an ecosystem based approach to adaptation, i.e. one that integrates the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services into an overall strategy to help people adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change (A. Colls & Ikkala, 2009). Such strategies are recognised as being more effective in biodiversity conservation than a species based approach. At the same time, this approach promotes the sustainable use of natural resources so that people are not denied the use of resources but rather, are placed in a position to better cope with climate change. The National System of Protected Areas (SINAP) of the Dominican Republic was created by means of the Sectorial Law of Protected areas (Law ). 1. Strict Protection Areas (scientific reserve, biological, marine sanctuary). 2. National Parks. 3. Natural and Cultural Monuments. 4. Habitat Management Areas. 5. Nature reserves (forest reserves, forest model). 126

168 6. Protected Landscapes (via panoramic, ecological corridor and recreational areas). The Dominican Republic was one of the first nations in the region to reach its goal of protecting 20% of its marine habitat when it declared the country s largest Marine Protected Area with a National Whale Sanctuary. Policy framework supporting management of the (SINAP) clearly establishes the role of protected areas within the national environmental management and integrates PA into national development strategy and poverty reduction (MENR, 2010). The need to reinforce the existing SINAP, particularly in near shore areas, along with a biological gap analysis conducted by The Nature Conservancy served as the scientific basis for the decision to add 32 new protected areas bringing the total to 119 protected areas including marine protected areas (MPA) covering 25, km 2 : 13, km 2 marine and 12, km 2 terrestrial. The number and expanse of protected areas in the Dominican Republic is creating a number of management challenges, due to a lack of financial resources, technical capacity, weak legal frameworks, lack of enforcement of laws and inadequate levels of participation in decision making. There are inconsistencies in Protected Areas Law that has set back previous conservation efforts. Under this law, modifications have been made to some PAs that resulted in fragmentation of natural ecosystems, especially in Jaragua National Park and Del Este National Park. The law also caused a general sense of confusion and alienation in the majority of stakeholders, including local communities and NGOs (González & Martin, 2006). Not all PAs have management plans and those that do have plans may not apply them (Vargas Escarramán, 2011). Overfishing of lobster, conch and several finfish species, threatens the MPAs of Jaragua National Park and La Caleta National Marine Park; forest clearing for agriculture, charcoal production, and cattle ranching threaten the Jacaragua s terrestrial environments. Tourism development is also placing pressure on both marine and terrestrial PAs since investors are attracted to their scenic beauty as prime locations to erect tourist accommodation and recreational attractions; Law has given the impression of being an incentive for foreign investment in coastal areas (González & Martin, 2006). The Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources is collaborating with the Ministry of Tourism to coordinate actions to maintain protected areas and diversify tourism to lessen the negative impacts on protected areas (MENR, 2010) Technology A high degree of access to technology at various levels (i.e. from local to national) and in all sectors may potentially play a significant role in biodiversity adaptation to climate change (Burton, 1996). Successful implementation of MEAs hinges on the use of both scientific and traditional knowledge. This includes the use of technology, active collaboration between stakeholders to build capacity, and the recognition, inclusion and application of traditional knowledge relating to the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity. Various articles of the CBD call on Contracting Parties to invest in research and innovation to generate technologies for conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity. Article 9 focuses on strengthening ex situ conservation; Article 12 is on research and training (with emphasis on the need to establish programmes for scientific and technical training); while Article 15 calls on Parties to provide and/or facilitate access for and transfer to other Contracting Parties of technologies that are relevant to the conservation and sustainable use of biological diversity. In keeping with Articles 9 and 12 the National Botanical Garden, National Zoo and National Aquarium manage ex situ conservation of fauna and flora. And the Ministry for Higher Education, Science and Technology (SEESCYT), has established the National Fund for Innovation and Scientific and Technological Development (FONDOCYT) that creates the National System of Higher Education, Science and Technology as a strategic tool to promote scientific and technological 127

169 development of the country. The Strategy for Science, Technology and Innovation proposes the creation of networks of research and development with several working groups that include a Network on Climate Change and Desertification and a Network on Environment and Natural Resources. Innovative technology can enhance biodiversity resilience and repair damage done to ecosystems but caution must be exercised in its use. In 2007, a breakwater was deployed in the Puerto Plata area in efforts to curb beach erosion. However because of uncertainties of the oceanographic processes hard engineering structures can have the opposite effect as was the case of this breakwater. The structure failed to restore sand to the beach. In that same year the Dominican Government spent $18 million in a beach nourishment project to restore the beaches of Puerto Plata and Juan Dolio. Soft engineering such as beach nourishment, although less expensive and less environmentally damaging than hard engineering, is only temporary. Two years later, beach losses were again evident in these areas, and there is debate on whether similar beach nourishment programs should be pursued (Wielgus, Cooper, Torres, & Burke, 2010). The introduction of new technologies in the agriculture and energy sectors such as rational use of water and renewable energy alternatives (see sections on Agriculture and Food Security and Energy Supply and Distribution) will help to reduce pressures on ecosystems and this benefit the biodiversity sector also. 128

170 5.6. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements Based on the above evaluation, actions need to be taken to minimise infrastructure losses in vulnerable areas of the Dominican Republic. The current and projected vulnerabilities of the tourism sector to SLR, including coastal inundation and increased beach erosion, will result in economic losses for the Dominican Republic and its people. Adaptations to minimise vulnerabilities in the Dominican Republic will require revisions to development plans and investment decisions. These considerations must be based on the best available information regarding the specific coastal infrastructure and ecosystem resources along the coast, in addition to the resulting economic and non market impacts. Given the historical damage caused by event driven coastal erosion, as well as slow onset SLR, the need to design and implement better strategies for mitigating their impacts is becoming apparent. There are a number of solutions that can be used to tackle beach erosion. Unfortunately, most of the common solutions such as beach replenishment and groynes are only temporary and their cost makes them unaffordable (Daniel, 2001). There are three main types of adaptation policies that can be implemented to reduce the vulnerability of the tourism sector in the Dominican Republic to SLR and improve the adaptive capacity of the country: (i) Hard engineering defenses and (ii) soft engineering defenses, which both aim to protect existing infrastructure and the land on which the infrastructure is built, as well as (iii) retreat policies, which aim to establish setbacks and thereby move people and/or infrastructure away from risk. A summary of examples for each of the three types of adaptation polices are provided in Table 5.6.1, along with a summary of select advantages and disadvantages of each. Adaption options discussed in this report should be implemented in the framework of integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) and all decisions need to take into account the broad range of stakeholders involved in decision making in the coastal zone. Adaptations should benefit coastlines in light of both climate and non climate stresses and adaptations will be promoted as a process towards ICZM rather than an endpoint (Linham & Nicholls, 2010). 129

171 Table 5.6.1: Summary of Adaptation Policies to reduce the vulnerability to SLR and SLR-induced beach erosion Protection Type Advantages Disadvantages Hard Engineering Defences Dikes, levees, embankments 1, 2 - Prevents inundation - Aesthetically unpleasing - Can be breeched if improperly designed - Can create vulnerabilities in other locations (e.g., further erosion downward from the dikes) - Expensive - Requires ongoing maintenance Groynes 3, 4 - Prevents erosion - Aesthetically unpleasing - Can increase erosion in other locations (e.g., stops longshore drift and traps sand) - Expensive Revetments 3, 4 Seawalls 3, 5 Structure Redesign (e.g., elevate buildings, enforce foundations) 6, 7 Beach nourishment and replanting of coastal 2, 3, 8 vegetation Replant, restructure and reshape sand dunes 3, 8 Relocate settlements and relevant infrastructure 11, 12 2, 9, 10, - Prevents inundation - Less unwanted erosion than seawalls or levees - Prevents inundation - Good for densely developed areas that cannot retreat - Less environmentally damaging compared to large scale defences - Can be completed independently of centralized management plans - Enhances slope stability - Reduces erosion - Preserves natural beach aesthetics - Provides protection for structures behind beach - Improves biodiversity and ecological health - Enhances slope stability - Reduces erosion - Guaranteed to reduce SLR vulnerability - Less environmental damage to coastline if no development takes place - Retains aesthetic value - Aesthetically unpleasing - Expensive - Requires ongoing maintenance and/or replacement (temporary) - Aesthetically unpleasing - Can be breeched if improperly designed - Can create vulnerabilities in other locations (e.g., further erosion adjacent from seawalls, reflect waves causing turbulence and undercutting) - Expensive - Requires ongoing maintenance - Scouring at the base of the seawall can cause beach loss in front of the wall - May be technologically unfeasible and expensive for larger buildings and resorts - Only protects the individual structure (not surrounding infrastructures such as roads) Soft Engineering Defences - Can ruin visitor experience while nourishment is occurring (e.g., restrict beach access) - Can lead to conflict between resorts - Differential grain size causing differing rates of erosion (e.g., new sand vs. natural sand) - Difficult to maintain (e.g., nourishment needs to be repeated/replenished, unsuccessful plantings) - Will not work on open coastlines (i.e., requires locations where vegetation already exists) - Conflict among resort managers (e.g., sand wars ) - Temporary (waves will continually move sand) Retreat Policies - Economic costs (e.g., relocation, compensation) - Social concerns (e.g., property rights, land use, loss of heritage, displacement) - Coordination of implementation is challenging (e.g., timing of relocation is problematic) - Concerns with abandoned buildings 1 (Silvester & Hsu, 1993) 2 (Nicholls & Mimura, 1998) 3 (French, 2001) 4 (El Raey, Dewidar, & El Hattab, 1999) 5 (Krauss & McDougal, 1996) 6 (Boateng, 2008) 7 (Lasco, Cruz, Pulhin, & Pulhin, 2006) 8 (Hamm, Capobiancob, Dettec, Lechugad, Spanhoffe, & Stivef, 2002) 9 (Fankhauser, 1995) 10 (Orlove, 2005) 11 (Patel, 2006) 12 (Barnett J., 2005) 130

172 Technology Hard Engineering Hard engineering structures are manmade, such as dikes, levees, revetments and sea walls, which are used to protect the land and related infrastructure from the sea. This is done to ensure that existing land uses, such as tourism, continue to operate despite changes in the surface level of the sea. The capital investment needed for engineered protection is expensive and not ideal in sparsely populated areas. For densely populated areas, a sea wall may be worth the investment when the costs of the protected lands are taken into account. Unfortunately, the effectiveness of this approach may not withstand the test of time nor withstand against extreme events. Protective infrastructure not only requires expensive maintenance which can have long term implications for sustainability, but adaptations that are successful in one location may create further vulnerabilities in other locations (IPCC, 2007b). For example, sea walls can be an effective form of flood protection from SLR but scouring at the base of the sea wall can cause beach loss, a crucial tourism asset, at the front of the wall (Krauss & McDougal, 1996). Moreover, hard engineering solutions are of particular concern for the tourism sector because even if the structures do not cause beach loss, they are not aesthetically pleasing, diminishing visitor experience. It is important for tourists that sight lines to the beach not only be clear but that access to the beach is direct and convenient (i.e. to not have to walk over or around a long protective barrier). Smaller scale hard engineering adaptations offer an alternative solution to large scale protection. Options include redesigning structures to elevate buildings and strengthen foundations to minimise the impact of flooding caused by SLR Technology Soft Engineering Protection can be implemented through the use of soft engineering methods which require naturally formed materials to control and redirect erosion processes. For example, beaches, wetlands and dunes have natural buffering capacity which can help reduce the adverse impacts of climate change (IPCC, 2007b). Through beach nourishment and wetland renewal programmes, the natural resilience of these areas against SLR impacts can be enhanced. Moreover, these adaptation approaches can simultaneously allow for natural coastal features to migrate inland, thereby minimising the environmental impacts that can occur with hard engineering protection. Replenishing, restoring, replanting and reshaping sand dunes can also improve the protection of a coastal area, as well as maintain, and in some cases improve, the aesthetic value of the site. Although less expensive and less environmentally damaging, soft engineering protection is only temporary. For example, the ongoing maintenance required to upkeep sand dunes, such as sand replenishment schemes, will create the periodic presence of sand moving equipment, subsequently hindering visitor experience (e.g. eye and noise pollution, limit beach access). Conflicts can also arise between resort managers resulting in sand wars, whereby sand taken to build up the beach at one given resort may lead other resorts to steal sand and place it on their own property Policy Managed retreat is an adaptation measure that can be implemented to protect people and new developments from SLR. Implementing setback policies and discouraging new developments in vulnerable areas will allow for future losses to be reduced. Such an adaptation strategy raises important questions by local stakeholders as to whether existing land uses, such as tourism, should remain or be relocated to adjust to changing shorelines (e.g. inundation from SLR) (IPCC, 2007b). Adaptation through retreat can have the benefit of saving on infrastructure defense costs (hard and soft engineering measures) while retaining 131

173 the aesthetic value of the coast, particularly in those areas that are uninhabited (i.e. little to no infrastructure or populations along the coast). The availability of land to enable retreat is not always possible, especially in highly developed areas where roads and infrastructure can impede setbacks or on small islands where land resources are limited. For many tourist destinations, retreat is both difficult in terms of planning (and legally challenging) and expensive to implement. Resorts and supporting tourism infrastructure are large capital investments that cannot be easily uprooted to allow the sea to move inland. If the resorts cannot be moved, then the alternative is to leave them damaged and eventually abandoned, degrading the aesthetics of the destination coastline. It is important that the retreat policy be well organised, with plans that clearly outline the land use changes and coordinate the retreat approach for all infrastructures within the affected areas. Additional considerations of adaptation through retreat include loss of property, land, heritage, and high compensation costs that will likely be required for those business and home owners that will need to relocate. Priority should be placed on transferring property rights to lesser developed land, allowing for setback changes to be established in preparation for SLR (IPCC, 2007b). Perhaps the greatest hindrance for the Dominican Republic in establishing coastal zone policies is due to the lack of a coastal zone management (CZM) programme, with little attempt to articulate a national CZM policy. The instability and rapid change in the institutional framework for management and policy reform at the national level has made the preparation and formal adaption of management plans highly difficult (Coastal Resources Centre, 1999). Without a CZM policy, there are consequently no shoreline development setbacks currently established in the Dominican Republic. The Government has stated that with the help of developed countries to cover adaptation costs, the Dominican Republic will provide support in building national capacities for the preparation and implementation of climate change policies (Presidency of the Dominican Republic, 2009). The Government has also stated that it believes in the precautionary principle, and the country should thereby take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent and minimise causes of climate change and reduce adverse effects. 132

174 5.7. Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management Adaptive capacity can be measured through examination of policies and plans implemented for the management of disasters, as well as the actions taken following a disaster. Being able to reduce the impacts of natural disasters on a small nation is often difficult, especially when facing major hazard threats on a regular basis. The post-disaster time period is a time when extra resources are needed to finance imports of food, energy, and inputs for the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. As a result, efforts to build resilience or adaptive capacity gets put aside while immediate survival, shelter and health needs are prioritised, along with the remedy of hazardous living conditions Management of Natural Hazards and Disasters The disaster management system can be thought of as a cycle where preparedness, mitigation 1 and adaptation activities (disaster prevention) are the focus prior to a disaster impact. Following an impact, the management focus becomes response, recovery and reconstruction (disaster relief). These two parts of the disaster management system work together and also impact the broader social, economic, ecological and political system (see Figure 5.7.1). Disaster Prevention System Disaster Relief System Socioecological System Figure 5.7.1: Relationship of the Disaster Management System and Society Caribbean disaster management and climate change As a region, the Caribbean has made coordinated efforts to prepare for and respond to disasters. The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency, CDEMA, (previously the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency, CDERA) was created in CDEMA plays a leadership role in disaster response, mitigation and information transfer to The Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries, operating the Regional Coordination Centre during major disaster impacts in any of their 18 Participating States, while also generating useful data and reports on hazards and climate change. The primary mechanism through which CDEMA has influenced national and regional risk reduction activities is the Enhanced CDM Strategy (CDEMA, 2010). The primary purpose of CDM is to strengthen regional, national and community level capacity for mitigation, management, and coordinated response to natural and technological hazards, and the effects of climate change (CDEMA, 2010) (emphasis added). Since the 1 In the disaster management literature, Mitigation refers to strategies that seek to minimise loss and facilitate recovery from disaster. This is contrary to the climate change definition of mitigation, which refers to the reduction of GHG emissions. 133

175 Dominican Republic is not a CARICOM member, they are not able to join CDEMA. Nevertheless, some CDEMA projects have been funded to work in CARIFORUM countries (of which The Dominican Republic is a member) and as such they have benefitted from the disaster risk reduction and resilience building efforts CDEMA has executed in the region Policy Across the Caribbean policies to adapt to and manage climate change impacts are becoming more common. The strong relationship between disasters and climate change create a policy arena where both issues can be managed under similar governance mechanisms. The Dominican Republic has developed a comprehensive legal and institutional framework for disaster management in the country over many decades. Many laws and decrees have been established to guide disaster management activities and give authority to various agencies. Of particular importance is Decree No of October 1981 (2 articles were modified again in 2000) which created the National Emergency Plan for the National Commission. In 2003, the law authorising an Emergency Budget was also approved (GFDRR, 2010). Of additional importance to policy in the Dominican Republic is the legislation for Risk Management. Specific plans under the Risk Management Law (No ) include: Sistema Nacional de Prevención, Mitigación y Respuesta ante desastres; (National System for Prevention, Mitigation and Response to Disasters). Plan Nacional de Gestión de Riesgos; (National Risk Management Plan). Plan Nacional de Emergencia; (National Emergency Plan). Sistema Integrado Nacional de Información; (National Integrated Information System). Fondo Nacional de Prevención, Mitigación y Respuesta ante Desastres (National Fund for Prevention, Mitigation and Response to Disasters) (Gobierno de la Republica Dominicana, 2002). The basis on which this 2002 legal document was created considers the need for an inter-institutional arrangement that is de-centralised, multi-disciplinary and includes public and private entities (Gobierno de la Republica Dominicana, 2002). Also in line with current disaster management practices is the acknowledgement of the need for increased institutional action in prevention, mitigation and rehabilitation within the policy arena that is guided by a holistic risk management ideal. The theoretical foundation of policy and legislation in disaster risk management therefore provides a strong basis for action and management of emergency situations in the Dominican Republic. Environmental Impacts and Development Planning: Separate from the policies and plans for emergency management, environmental policies and plans can also affect a country s ability to sustain impact from and respond to disasters. Most often in communities around the world, a disaster results when natural hazard events occur in areas where there is an absence of land use planning, or as a result of poor development planning. The same is true of the Dominican Republic. Unplanned urban growth in areas unsuitable for development and weak enforcement of building codes and zoning regulations are the main drivers of most of the current vulnerability in the Dominican Republic (GFDRR, 2010, p. 129). Nevertheless, in the Risk Management Law, the importance of effectively incorporating prevention criteria in physical, urban and rural planning, as well as sectoral and socioeconomic planning is said to be necessary for the achievement of sustainable development (Gobierno de la Republica Dominicana, 2002). Translating this sustainable development philosophy into action across the 134

176 Dominican Republic is needed in order to ensure vulnerability reduction and strengthening of adaptive capacity. As a region, relevant groups are working hard towards the development and application of a Caribbean Building Code or Building Standards using the International Code Council (ICC) codes as the primary base documents with additional input from the Caribbean Uniform Building Code (CUBiC) and earlier assessments on wind load and seismic considerations. The Code has already been prepared and the next step is for each of the 15 states involved to review the documents and prepare their own Caribbean Application Document (CAD). This document will most likely be prepared by specialists who will determine how the regional code should be applied given each country s own peculiarities, for example some countries will focus more heavily on flooding and less on seismic considerations. The CAD will then be reviewed by all of the relevant stakeholders on the National Stakeholder Sub-Committee who will provide comments before it is submitted to CARICOM (Personal communication - Jonathan Platt, Barbados National Standards Institute. May 4, 2011). The Dominican Republic is not presently one of the 15 countries participating in CUBiC, but it does have its own national building code and various construction regulations (e.g. Sistema de Reglamentaciones Técnicas, Reglamento General de Edificaciones, Ley No. 675 Sobre Construcción y Ornato Publico). The Dominican Republic building code includes consideration of minimum wind and shaking resistance and was most recently reviewed as part of a project for the Hurricane Georges (1998) post-disaster reconstruction (O'Reilly, 2002). The State Secretariat for Public Works and Communication (SEOPC) is in charge of creating technical regulations (O'Reilly, 2002). Its constituent bodies, the Dominican Society of Seismology and Seismic Engineering (SODOSISMICA) and the National Regulations Commission for Technical Engineering, Architecture and related branches (CONARTIA), offer assistance in the development of relevant regulations that pertain to the local conditions and take into consideration the local building materials. The revised regulations were subject to a review by Consultants and the SEOPC, following which a public inquiry will be administered in order to get full approval en enactment. This was scheduled for 2003 and, as such, should mean the new structural requirements are now part of the legal Building Code. Enforcement of the code now must be prioritised to continue to reduce vulnerability from the early stages of development. Catastrophe Insurance Coverage Re-insurance within the Caribbean region has generally been provided by international insurance companies. However, the classification of the region as a catastrophe zone, thus being high risk, means that insurance premiums remain very high for those who seek insurance. The Caribbean is home to the first risk pooling facility designed to limit financial impacts of catastrophic hurricanes and earthquakes in Caribbean member countries, by providing short term liquidity when the policy is triggered (Kambon, et al., 2011). Originally, the insurance index was based on degree of shaking during earthquakes or wind speed for hurricane events and the member country would qualify for a payout based on their policy and the level of damages deemed to be associated with either wind or shaking. Recently, the need to also consider water damages has been noted. As a result, the CCRIF has continued to make progress on an Excess Rainfall product which is anticipated for the beginning of the policy year starting on June 1, 2011 (CCRIF, 2011). The Dominican Republic is not at present part of the CCRIF and their high debt burden can be attributed in part to losses from natural disasters (GFDRR, 2010). Therefore, participation in the regional re-insurance facility could have benefits to reduction of economic burden on the national government, while also assisting in efforts to achieve greater development standards for all Dominicans. In recognition of the 135

177 benefits of such a programme, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and Swiss Re have also offered an insurance-linked securities product where the Dominican Republic has US $50 million in protection against the risk from both earthquakes and hurricanes (Reuters, 2011) Management of Disasters in the Dominican Republic In addition to the policy framework mentioned above, since 2000 other decrees have created the Centre for Emergency Operations and the National Office for Seismic Evaluation and Vulnerability of Infrastructure and Buildings, and clarified the role of the National Emergency Commission in the Office of Civil Defence (OCD) (GFDRR, 2010). The OCD is responsible for civil protection and leads emergency response, including shelters and volunteers. Further to this agency, there is the National Council on Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Response (NCDPMR) and the National Commission for Emergencies (CNE), which is made up of the Technical Committee for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (TCDPM), the Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) (GFDRR, 2010). There are also regional and municipal level committees for disaster prevention, mitigation and response. During emergency situations, it is the CNE that speaks on behalf of the Government, while the Congress or President of the Republic has the only authority to declare a state of emergency (GFDRR, 2010). The EOC acts as the linking body between public, private and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and is the focal point for the HFA. The Dominican Republic is also a participating member of the Central American Coordination Centre for Natural Disaster Prevention (CEPREDENAC) (GFDRR, 2010). The decentralised organisation of institutions and agencies working in disaster management demonstrates a good capacity for progress on vulnerability reduction, and regional cooperation is also beneficial to local efforts because regional partners can offer assistance and resources for preparedness, mitigation and response and reconstruction where there are local deficiencies. Likewise, this decentralisation offers capacity for climate change adaptation. The integration of climate change considerations is not evident in the policies and legislation specific to disaster management. However, the National Council on Climate Change and the Clean Development Mechanism is actively researching and developing projects related to climate change impacts across the Dominican Republic (ISDR, 2011) Technology Technology in the field of disaster management can reduce vulnerabilities through structural protective structures, by way of policies that control or guide development, or through public education that would then change the behaviours that generate vulnerability. Coastal Protection In the Caribbean investments in structural protection are often used to protect coastlines. The use of groynes, breakwaters and sea walls are popular methods to control coastal erosion processes and safeguard development from damaging wave actions. Although these structures do provide some relief, they generally offer only temporary benefits and sometimes also cause negative effects in other locations along the coast. Disaster management practices have also found that structural protection is very expensive and can sometimes worsen the impacts of a disaster when the size of the structure is incongruent with an event (e.g. sea wall structures, if broken or damaged, can add debris and exacerbate flooding and erosion). Further discussion of the structural responses to climate change and SLR and storm surge can be found in the section on Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements. 136

178 Technology and Public Education Technology can enhance disaster management at all stages of the disaster management cycle. One of the many functions of the NCDPMR is the design and continued updating of an Integrated National System of Information that serves as a knowledge and information source for the general public and institutions in order that plans, programmes and projects can be developed in prevention and mitigation of risks and also for preparation and response to hazards (ISDR, 2011). Further to this the NCDPMR has the responsibility of encouraging public participation and capacity building. Outside the National Government, other agencies and organisations are also active in disaster management in the Dominican Republic. The Red Cross is involved in general capacity building in the areas of health, sanitation and water. They also work in disaster response through which education is a vital part of their work (Cruz Roja Dominicana, 2011). To address disaster management in the Caribbean tourism sector, CDEMA, with the support of the Inter- American Development Bank (IDB) and in collaboration with the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO), CARICOM Regional Organization for Standards and Quality and the University of the West Indies implemented a Regional Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Project for Sustainable Tourism (The Regional Public Good) over the period of January 2007 to June The project aims to reduce the Caribbean tourism sector s vulnerability to natural hazards through the development of a Regional DRM Framework for Tourism. Under the Framework, a Regional DRM Strategy and Plan of Action will be developed, with a fundamental component being the development of standardised methodologies for hazard mapping, vulnerability assessment and economic valuation for risk assessment for the tourism sector (CDERA, 2007; CDERA, 2008). Good practices have been identified in countries throughout the region and the Dominican Republic was identified as a good model of positive tourism sector DRM activities, particularly because of collaborative efforts between the Ministry of Tourism and the National Emergency Commission (CNE) (Grosvenor, 2009). Early Warning Systems (EWS) An EWS is commonly used in conjunction with an evacuation plan to guide at-risk persons to safety and avoid losses of life from natural hazard events. The use of an EWS is an effective communication tool only when the proper instrumentation for collection of the necessary weather data is present (i.e. rain gauges, tidal gauges, weather stations etc.). In the Dominican Republic, the EWS is coordinated by the CNE in conjunction with data from meteorological stations from the National Meteorology Office (ONAMET) and the Hydrologic Resources Institute (INDRHI) (Personal Communication Dr. Yolanda Leon, Departamento de Ciencias Básicas y Ambientales, Universidad Instituto Tecnológico de Santo Domingo, September 14, 2011). A successful testing of this system was conducted in 2008, including the distribution of messages via telephone, cellular phone, television and radio networks (Listin Diario, 2008). The system can reach all of the country and was able to get a 98% response rate within 15 minutes (Listin Diario, 2008). There are hazard and vulnerability maps for some parts of the country (ISDR, 2011) that are complementary to the operation and interpretation of the warning system. This demonstrates that there is a good capacity to communicate with the general public and across government agencies in times of emergency, an important part of adaptive capacity to extreme, rapid-onset hazards. Similar technology can also be employed for the communication of more slow-onset hazards, such as SLR and other climate change related impacts that are projected for the Dominican Republic. 137

179 5.8. Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development As part of the CARIBSAVE Community Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment methodology, household surveys were conducted in the Bayahibe community to determine household and community access to five livelihood assets (financial, physical, natural, social and human). Livelihood strategies (combinations of assets) are evaluated to determine the adaptive capacity of households and consequently communities. A total of 30 respondents were surveyed but one respondent did not indicate their gender. Of the 29 who did, 13 were male and 16 were female. All respondents who indicated their gender also did indicate the gender of the head of household, and therefore 29 surveys are analysed on the basis of the gender of the head of household Demographic Profile of Respondents Residency in the Community Respondents were generally long time residents of Bayahibe, with 66% (N=19) of the sample indicating that they had lived in their community for a minimum of 20 years (see Table 5.8.1). Female and male respondents displayed a similar distribution in terms of length of time in their community, though males were generally in their communities for longer. Age Distribution Table 5.8.1: Length of Residency in Parish / Community Residency Male Female Total Less than 1 year 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 1-5 years 1 8% 1 6% 2 7% 6-10 years 2 15% 1 6% 3 10% years 0 0% 3 19% 3 10% years 0 0% 2 13% 2 7% Over 20 years 10 77% 9 56% 19 66% Table shows that most of the sample fall within the working age range. However, when disaggregated based on sex of respondent, the males were generally older than the female respondents. This is visually presented Figure Table 5.8.2: Age Distribution of Sample Age Male Female TOTAL Under % 0 0% 1 3% % 7 44% 7 24% % 3 19% 6 21% % 3 19% 6 21% % 3 19% 5 17% Over % 0 0% 3 10% 138

180 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Under Over 60 Males Females Figure 5.8.1: Age of Respondents Household Form and Structure Of the sample, the majority of respondents indicated being in a married (34%) or common law relationship (24%) only 21% of the respondents were single and 10% of respondents were in visiting relationships. There were two respondents (7%) who were divorced. None of the respondents were separated and none indicated being widowed (Table 5.8.3). Figure illustrates the large majority of the sample that are in some form of union. Table 5.8.3: Relationship Status of Respondents Status Male Female Total Single 3 23% 3 19% 6 21% Single (Visiting Relationship) 1 8% 2 13% 3 10% Married 6 46% 4 25% 10 34% Separated 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Other/ Common Law 2 15% 5 31% 7 24% Divorced 1 8% 1 6% 2 7% Widowed 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 139

181 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Single Single (Visiting Relationshi p) Married Separated Other/Com mon Law Figure 5.8.2: Relationship Status of Respondents Divorced Widowed Males 23% 8% 46% 0% 15% 8% 0% Females 19% 13% 25% 0% 31% 6% 0% Total 21% 10% 34% 0% 24% 7% 0% Formal or informal relationships can imply a greater level of stability within the household, because burden and responsibilities can be shared, and assets and resources are greater, compared to situations of households headed by a single resident ( single in respect of marital status). One partner in a relationship can be a source of support or assistance (financial or otherwise), especially in the case of women Household Headship Table shows that all of the male respondents indicated being the head of their household, whereas only 81% of female respondents indicated being their head of household. Household headship in general was near evenly distributed amongst males and females, with only a marginally higher percentage of male headed households (see Table 5.8.5). Table 5.8.4: Perception of Headship of Household Perceived as Head of Sex of Respondent Household Male Female Yes 12 92% 13 81% No 1 8% 3 19% Table 5.8.5: Household Headship Gender of Male Headed Female Headed Respondent Households Households Sample (n=29) Male % 0 0% % Female % % % Total (as % of sample) % % % 140

182 With regards to household size, 3% (N=1) of respondents indicated that they lived in households consisting just of themselves, whereas 41% of respondents belonged to households with between two and three persons and 55% belonged to households with four or five persons. None of the households had more than five persons (see Table 5.8.6). Male headed households tended to be larger in comparison to female headed households. However, the burden of care on household heads is relatively low. Table 5.8.6: Family Size by Sex of Head of Household Size of Sex of Head of Household Household Male Female Total 1 1 8% 0 0% 1 3% % 9 56% 12 41% % 7 44% 16 55% % 0 0% 0 0% % 0 0% 0 0% Education and Livelihoods The largest proportion of the sample (N=17 /59%) indicated that they had completed only primary school education. Six respondents indicated completing secondary level education. One person indicated completed technical/vocational schooling (see Table 5.8.7). One respondent went to teachers college and three respondents completed tertiary level studies. There were dissimilar proportions of males and females who completed advanced level studies. Table 5.8.7: Sample Distribution by Education and Training Highest Level of Education Male Female Total Primary 9 69% 8 50% 17 59% Secondary (Ordinary Level) 0 0% 4 25% 4 14% Secondary (Advanced Level) 2 15% 0 0% 2 7% Community College 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Technical-Vocational Institute 0 0% 1 6% 1 3% Teachers College 0 0% 1 6% 1 3% Tertiary 2 15% 1 6% 3 10% A higher level of education implies a greater probability of access to higher ranks in the job market, and secondary school education is a basic requirement in many areas. Given that 59% of the sample only has primary school education, this places them at a greater disadvantage in any endeavours to secure employment or to move to higher ranks in their career. 141

183 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% <500 USD USD USD USD USD Meale Headed Households Female Headed Households Total >1500 Figure 5.8.3: Sample Distribution by Average Monthly Earnings In terms of household income, more than 62% of the sample recorded earning less than US $500 per month. Of the remaining households, 24% earned between US $500 and US $750 and 14% earned between US $751 and US $1,000. None of the households indicated earning more than US $1,000. Generally, male headed households indicated making slightly more money per month than female headed households (see Figure 5.8.3). Table 5.8.8: Sample Distribution of Main Income Generation Responsibility Are you the main income Sex of Respondent earner? Male Female Total Yes 12 92% 9 56% 21 72% No 1 8% 6 38% 7 24% Didn't respond 0 0% 1 6% 1 3% Table 5.8.9: Sample Distribution of Involvement in Income Generation Are you involved in income Sex of Respondent generating activity? Male Female Total Yes 12 92% 11 69% 23 79% No 1 8% 2 13% 3 10% Didn't respond 0 0% 3 19% 3 10% In line with the responses on perception of household headship, most of the males in the sample (92%) reported being the main income earner, whereas only 56% of females bore this responsibility (see Table 5.8.8). The female employment rate amongst the sample is also much lower compared to the males, (see Table 5.8.9) and similar trends of higher unemployment in women are reflected in national level statistics. 142

184 Table : Labour Market Participation: Involvement in Tourism Sectors Employment Sector Male Female Total Taxi Driver % % % Tour Operator % % % Hotel Workers % % % Restaurant Workers % % % Craft sellers or vendors % % % Informal tour guides % % % Privately owned business % % % Other % % % Did not answer % % % It is evident that tourism involvement is very high in the community. There were 20 respondents that indicated working in a tourism sector, most of whom worked in privately owned businesses, craft sellers or restaurant workers (see Table ). Another four respondents indicated working in non-tourism sectors. There were three females, and one male indicating employment in non tourism sectors. The male respondent indicated working in retail sales and services, as did two female respondents. The other female respondent indicated working as a domestic worker (see Table ). Table : Labour Market Participation: Involvement in Non-Tourism Sectors Employment Sector Male Female Total Administration 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Agriculture 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Banking/Financial 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Building/Construction 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Domestic worker 0 0.0% 1 6.3% 1 3.4% Education 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Manufacturing 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Mechanical/Technical 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Retail Sales and Services 1 7.7% % % Health Services 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Government Worker 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Information Technology 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Science/Technology 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Self Employed 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Student 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Transportation 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Did not answer % % % Other 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 143

185 Food Security Table shows that most (89.7%) respondents procure their household food supply from grocery stores or supermarkets. The only other source of food was from community shops, where 51.7% indicated they shopped for food. It is evident that supermarkets are the only source of food for some households, and likewise community shops for a few others. The very low percentage of respondents indicating they grow their own food implies a low level of self sufficiency amongst the sample. Table : Source of Food Supply Male Headed Female Headed Source of Food Supply Sample Male Female Male Female Grown by Family 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Grocery store / Super market % % 0 0.0% % % Open air / Traditional market 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Community Shops % % 0 0.0% % % Barter 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Other 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% When asked about the adequacy of the household food supply, 72.4% indicated an adequate supply throughout the year (see Table ). There is the likelihood that the food shortage in some households is related to the low household incomes and low self sufficiency observed previously. Given the small sample size a definitive conclusion cannot be made in regards to gender and food adequacy but more research in this area could provide further insights. It is important to note that 24.1% of the sample did not answer this question. Table : Adequacy of Food Supply Adequacy of Food Male Headed Female Headed Sample Supply Male Female Male Female Yes % 0 0.0% NA NA % % No 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 1 7.1% 1 3.4% Financial Security and Social Protection Financial Support Table shows that few households within the sample have established support linkages with external individuals and groups. Additionally, both males and females indicated receiving some form of support, although household support was more present in male headed households. Specifically, none of the respondents indicated receiving financial support from religious organisation. Only one respondent received financial support from a relative, government or other. Three respondents received financial help from family friends, and two respondents received help from charitable organisations. However, while some households received externally sourced financial support to supplement income, only six respondents indicated providing financial support for anyone outside of their household (see Table ). 144

186 Sources of Financial Support for Household Table : Distribution by Financial Responsibility for Household (Receive support) Male Headed Female Headed Male Female Male Female Sample Relative 1 7.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 1 3.4% Family Friend % 0 0.0% NA NA 1 7.1% % Religious Organisation 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Charitable Organisation 1 7.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 1 7.1% 2 6.9% Government 1 7.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 1 3.4% Other 1 7.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 1 3.4% Sources of Financial Support from Household Table : Distribution by Financial Responsibility for Household (Give support) Male Headed Female Headed Male Female Male Female Sample Relative 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Family Friend % 0 0.0% NA NA % % Religious Organisation 1 7.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 1 3.4% Charitable Organisation 1 7.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 1 3.4% Government 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Other 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% In terms of access to credit, one third of respondents indicated access to credit facilities, though those that accessed credit seemed more inclined to do so from formal sources. Table shows that 34.5% accessed credit from a commercial bank, while 10.3% sought loans from a Sou-Sou or partner. One respondent sought credit from another source. The relatively high percentage of people who have recently taken bank loans also reflects the low income position of most households. Table : Distribution by Access to Credit Male Headed Female Headed Sources of Credit Sample Male Female Male Female Commercial Bank Loan % % NA NA % % Credit Union Loan 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Sou Sou / Partner % 0 0.0% NA NA 1 7.1% % Other 1 7.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 1 3.4% Financial Security Financial security in the event of a financial or natural shock was found to be relatively low amongst a large majority of the sample. Most respondents indicated that financial reserves would not last beyond three months in the event of a job loss or natural hazard impact. 145

187 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Less than 1 month 1-3 months 4-6 months 7-9 months months More than 1 year Natural Disaster Job Loss Figure 5.8.4: Financial Security: Job Loss or Natural Disaster In relation to Job Loss, 51.7% of respondents indicated that they would have financial coverage for less than one month and 27.6% of the sample indicated that they would be financially covered for three months at most. Only one respondent indicated they would have reserves for more than one year, and two respondents indicated they would have reserves for between four and nine months. There was little difference between males and females, though females did indicate slightly shorter lengths of financial security (see Table ). Financial Reserve Table : Sample Distribution by Financial Security: Job Loss Male Headed Female Headed Male Female Male Female Sample Less than 1 month % % NA NA % % 1-3 months % % NA NA % % 4-6 months 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 1 7.1% 1 3.4% 7-9 months 1 7.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 1 3.4% months 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% More than 1 year 1 7.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 1 3.4% Do not know % 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 2 6.9% Similarly, respondents indicated similar yet slightly shorter periods of financial coverage for a natural disaster as they had for job loss. Over half of the sample indicated that they would have financial reserves for less than one month (see Table ). 146

188 Financial Reserve Table : Sample Distribution by Financial Security: Natural Disaster Male Headed Female Headed Male Female Male Female Sample Less than 1 month % % NA NA % % 1-3 months % % NA NA % % 4-6 months 1 7.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 1 3.4% 7-9 months 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% months 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% More than 1 year 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Do not know % 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 2 6.9% The perception of ability to support the household is a particularly useful indicator of resilience and would be important in determining the ways in which households adapt in the face of a natural / climate related event. Financial security is an essential household defence against any possible shocks. Lower levels of security places households in more vulnerable positions. Households especially that are unable to sustain themselves after one month, and unable to source any external help, are at significantly greater risk. Given the low income positions of most households, the overall financial situation is dire. Social Protection In terms of social protections provisions, Table shows that respondents generally had low social protection. Health insurance is in place for most respondents (75.9%), and six respondents (20.7%) had private pensions. In terms of household protection, only 6.9% of respondents had insurance against hurricane damage. None of the respondents had house insurance against flooding, storm surge or fire. Social Protection Provision Table : Sample Distribution by Social Protection Provisions Male Headed Female Headed Male Female Male Female Sample Health Insurance % % NA NA % % Private Pension Savings Plan % % NA NA 1 7.1% % National Insurance/Government Pension Home Insurance - Hurricane Damage (water/wind) 1 7.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 1 3.4% 1 7.7% % NA NA 0 0.0% 2 6.9% Home Insurance - Flooding 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Home Insurance - Storm Surge 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Home Insurance - Fire 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% The number of households without insurance protection against weather impacts and other hazards is concerning. There may be varying reasons for the lack of insurance, including a lack of awareness of insurance benefits, inability to afford insurance, or simply a lack of desire to purchase a plan. However, regardless of the reason, a significant risk exists for these households. It is very likely that, given the household incomes indicated earlier, the absence of home insurance may be as a result of inability to afford it. This scenario translates into a very limited capacity to rebuild or restore property in the event of damage or loss, unless there are other similar but unstated safety measures which these households have employed to protect themselves. 147

189 Physical Asset Base Ownership of capital assets varied significantly across all of the instances listed in Table The highest proportion of respondents indicated ownership of houses (79.3%), land (41.4%), and private business (51.7%). Generally, males and females had similar rates of asset ownership. Asset / Amenity Table : Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Capital Assets Male Headed Female Headed Male Female Male Female Sample House % % NA NA % % Land % % NA NA % % Livestock 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Industrial/Agricultural 1 7.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 1 3.4% Commercial Vehicles 1 7.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 1 3.4% Private Business % % NA NA % % None 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Other (boat) 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% A further examination of assets revealed that ownership of communication and entertainment devices varied across the sample. Respondents most often indicated having television sets and cellular telephone (89.7%), radio (69.0%) and DVD players (41.4%) in their homes. Ten of the respondents indicated having a laptop computer, and five had desktop computers (see Table ). There were similar rates of electronic asset ownership between males and females. A large proportion of respondents own basic communication devices (television, radio, telephone) which suggests that they have access to information, and this is crucial in mitigating weather impacts. Table : Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Appliances / Electronics Asset / Amenity Male Headed Female Headed Male Female Male Female Sample Computer (Desktop) 1 7.7% % NA NA % % Computer (Laptop) % % NA NA % % Internet % % NA NA % % Television % % NA NA % % Video Player/Recorder 1 7.7% % NA NA 0 0.0% % DVD Player % % NA NA % % Radio % % NA NA % % Telephone (Land line) % % NA NA % % Telephone (Mobile) % % NA NA % % In terms of access to transportation, Table shows that respondents most normally used other forms of transportation (41%), but generally access to transportation was low. None of the respondents had access to public transportation, and only two had access to private, motorised vehicles. Access is also significantly greater amongst male headed households. The overall low level of transportation access could have implications in the event of severe weather as residents have limited transportation options. 148

190 Table : Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Transportation Vehicle Access Male Headed Female Headed Sample Private motorised vehicle 1 8% 1 6% 2 7% Private non-motorised vehicle 5 38% 0 0% 5 17% Public transit 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% None 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Other 12 92% 0 0% 12 41% The largest proportion of respondents (N=23/79%) indicated that their home was made of blocks and cement, and 7% (N=2), indicated their house was made of wood (see Table ). There is little difference between male and female headed households. Houses made predominantly of wood tend to be less resistant against extreme weather impacts, suggesting that more than half of the sample is at relatively greater risk of structural damage in the event of a hurricane or major hurricane. However, as there have been instances where wooden houses have withstood hurricane conditions which caused damage to concrete structures, the correlation between house material and damage risk is not absolute. The material is merely an indicator of the integrity of the structure. Table : Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: House Material House Material Male Headed Female Headed Sample Brick and Mortar 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Blocks and Cement 10 77% 13 81% 23 79% Mud 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Wood 1 8% 1 6% 2 7% Other 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Respondents indicated that they had good access to sanitation conveniences, with 93.1% of respondents sampled indicating that they always had access to liquid waste disposal and 100% always having access to indoor water-flush toilets. 96.6% of respondents always had access to garbage collection. There was little difference between male and female headed households (see Table ). Access to sanitation conveniences serve as an indicator of the state of environmental health of households and the community in general, and any risks to the physical health of residents as a result of a lack of access. Based on responses, concerns for health threats associated with poor sanitation are low. 149

191 Table : Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Access to Sanitation Conveniences Amenity Access Male Headed Female Headed Sample Always 93.3% 92.9% 93.1% Liquid Waste Disposal Sometimes 6.7% 0.0% 3.4% Never 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Always 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Indoor water-flush toilets Sometimes 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Never 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Always 100.0% 92.9% 96.6% Garbage collection Sometimes 0.0% 7.1% 3.4% Never 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Power and Decision Making Both female and male respondents indicated high levels of responsibility for decision making at the household level and lower levels of responsibility at the informal and formal community level. 84.6% of males and 87.5% of females indicated having a role in the decision making at the household level. At the informal community level, females (6.3%) and males (15.4%) indicated having a role in decision making. At the formal community level, females (31.3%) and males (7.7%) indicated having a role in decision making (see Table ). While fewer females were heads of their respective households, many still have a high level of decision making power in their household. Table : Power and Decision Making Site of Decision Making Males Females Household % % Informal Community % 1 6.3% Formal Community 1 7.7% % Table : Power and Decision Making: Intra Household Site of Decision Male Headed Female Headed Making Male Female Total Male Female Total Household % % % NA NA % % Informal % 0 0.0% % NA NA 1 7.1% 1 7.1% Formal Community 1 7.7% % % NA NA % % Social Networks and Social Capital Half of the sample indicated that they were active in their community and involved in a community group (see Table ). Social capital can be a safety net for residents and can help to compensate for any lacks in personal financial or physical capital ownership. Networks of friends within the community also exist amongst both males and females which can be sources of support for households or household members when it is needed. 150

192 Table : Social Networks: Community Involvement Membership Male Female Yes % % No % % With regards to support systems, both male and female respondents would rely mostly on their relatives and friends for physical help, personal advice or financial assistance. However, in general, respondents are open to seeking assistance from a variety of sources. Male respondents indicated more options in each case when compared to female respondents, but female respondents showed heavy reliance on relatives within the household for support (see Table ). Table : Social Networks: Support Systems Support System Physical Help Personal Advice Financial Assistance Male Female Male Female Male Female Relative (within the household) 46.2% 62.5% 15.4% 31.3% 30.8% 43.8% Relative (outside the household) 30.8% 31.3% 46.2% 37.5% 30.8% 31.3% Family friend 23.1% 6.3% 23.1% 6.3% 7.7% 0.0% Religious Organisation 15.4% 18.8% 15.4% 18.8% 7.7% 6.3% Non-religious Charity 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.1% 0.0% Government Agency 15.4% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% Subsistence Use of Natural Resources Generally, natural resource use for subsistence was very high. At least 13 respondents (44.8%) indicated using at least one of the natural resources listed in Table The sea was foremost listed to be very important for subsistence by almost all of the respondents (96.6%). Forests, coral reefs and agricultural land were also very important for a large majority of the sample. Livelihood Resource use and importance for livelihood activities was also high but to a lesser extent. The sea was again indicated to be the most important resource for livelihoods (as selected by 89.7% of the sample). Other important resources were coral reefs, agricultural land, and forest with 72.4% of respondents indicating that all the aforementioned resources were very important for livelihoods. Rivers are also generally important for respondents (see Table ). Recreation Resource use and importance for recreation activities was also high. The sea was again indicated to be the most important resource for livelihoods (as selected by 96.6% of the sample). Other important resources were the bush and forest with 69.0% and the agricultural land with 65.5% of respondents indicating that each resource was very important (see Table ). 151

193 Table : Use and Importance of Natural Resources Resource Importance Subsistence Livelihood Recreation River / Stream Sea Coral Reefs Mangrove Agricultural Land Bush and Forest Mountain Caves Wild Animals Very Important % % % Somewhat important % % % Not at all important % % % None / Do Not Use 2 7.1% 2 6.9% 2 6.9% Very Important % % % Somewhat important 1 3.4% 2 6.9% 1 3.4% Not at all important 0 0.0% 1 3.4% 0 0.0% None / Do Not Use 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Very Important % % % Somewhat important % % % Not at all important % % % None / Do Not Use 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 3.4% Very Important % % % Somewhat important % 2 6.9% % Not at all important % % % None / Do Not Use 1 3.4% 1 3.4% 2 6.9% Very Important % % % Somewhat important % % % Not at all important 2 6.9% 2 6.9% 2 6.9% None / Do Not Use % % % Very Important % % % Somewhat important 1 3.4% % % Not at all important 2 6.9% 1 3.4% % None / Do Not Use 2 6.9% 2 6.9% 2 6.9% Very Important % % % Somewhat important 2 6.9% 1 3.4% 1 3.4% Not at all important % % % None / Do Not Use % % % Very Important % % % Somewhat important 2 6.9% 1 3.4% % Not at all important % % % None / Do Not Use % % % Very Important % % % Somewhat important % % % Not at all important % % % None / Do Not Use % % % When further disaggregated on the basis of sex, there was little disparity in the use of natural assets, albeit a slightly larger proportion of female respondents are slightly more dependent on natural resources than male respondents (see Table ). 152

194 Table : Use and Importance of Natural Resources, by Sex of Respondent Resource River / Stream Sea Coral Reefs Mangrove Agricultural Land Bush and Forest Mountain Caves Wild Animals Importance Subsistence Livelihood Recreation Male Female Male Female Male Female Very Important 50.0% 68.8% 38.5% 62.5% 46.2% 62.5% Somewhat important 8.3% 12.5% 23.1% 6.3% 7.7% 12.5% Not at all important 33.3% 12.5% 30.8% 25.0% 38.5% 18.8% None / Do Not Use 8.3% 6.3% 7.7% 6.3% 7.7% 6.3% Very Important 92.3% 100.0% 84.6% 93.8% 92.3% 100.0% Somewhat important 7.7% 0.0% 15.4% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% Not at all important 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% None / Do Not Use 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Very Important 76.9% 75.0% 69.2% 75.0% 61.5% 62.5% Somewhat important 15.4% 6.3% 7.7% 18.8% 15.4% 18.8% Not at all important 7.7% 18.8% 23.1% 6.3% 23.1% 12.5% None / Do Not Use 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% Very Important 61.5% 56.3% 61.5% 62.5% 46.2% 56.3% Somewhat important 7.7% 18.8% 7.7% 6.3% 15.4% 6.3% Not at all important 23.1% 25.0% 23.1% 31.3% 30.8% 31.3% None / Do Not Use 7.7% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 7.7% 6.3% Very Important 61.5% 81.3% 61.5% 81.3% 53.8% 75.0% Somewhat important 15.4% 6.3% 15.4% 6.3% 23.1% 12.5% Not at all important 15.4% 0.0% 15.4% 0.0% 15.4% 0.0% None / Do Not Use 7.7% 12.5% 7.7% 12.5% 7.7% 12.5% Very Important 76.9% 87.5% 69.2% 75.0% 69.2% 68.8% Somewhat important 7.7% 0.0% 15.4% 18.8% 7.7% 18.8% Not at all important 7.7% 6.3% 7.7% 0.0% 15.4% 6.3% None / Do Not Use 7.7% 6.3% 7.7% 6.3% 7.7% 6.3% Very Important 30.8% 62.5% 30.8% 56.3% 30.8% 56.3% Somewhat important 15.4% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% Not at all important 46.2% 18.8% 53.8% 12.5% 53.8% 12.5% None / Do Not Use 7.7% 18.8% 7.7% 31.3% 7.7% 31.3% Very Important 38.5% 50.0% 38.5% 56.3% 30.8% 50.0% Somewhat important 7.7% 6.3% 7.7% 0.0% 23.1% 6.3% Not at all important 46.2% 25.0% 46.2% 12.5% 46.2% 18.8% None / Do Not Use 7.7% 18.8% 7.7% 31.3% 0.0% 25.0% Very Important 46.2% 43.8% 30.8% 31.3% 30.8% 31.3% Somewhat important 30.8% 25.0% 7.7% 37.5% 7.7% 25.0% Not at all important 15.4% 18.8% 53.8% 18.8% 53.8% 25.0% None / Do Not Use 7.7% 12.5% 7.7% 12.5% 7.7% 18.8% Agriculture Only three respondents indicated involvement in agriculture on any scale, and one indicated they always had access to reliable water source for irrigation, and one indicated they never had access to irrigation (see Table ). Gender disparity in this case is also minimal. 153

195 Table : Involvement in Agriculture: Access to Water Reliability of Water Male Female Sample Always 0 0.0% 1 7.1% 1 3.4% Sometimes 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Never 1 6.7% 0 0.0% 1 3.4% Knowledge, Exposure and Experience of Climate Related Events For community residents, knowledge of climate related events may originate from personal observations and experiences, or information from various sources and through public awareness programmes about different event. Respondents indicated good levels of knowledge in relation to hurricanes (average = 24.1%, very good = 44.8%) and average or very good knowledge of storm surge (average = 31.0% and very good = 48.3%) and drought (average = 31.0% and very good = 31.0%). In terms of flooding, respondents indicated (average = 31.0% and poor = 51.7%) levels of knowledge. When examined on the basis of gender of respondent, there was a small difference between male and female headed households. Females generally showed slightly lower level of knowledge of climate related events. Event Knowledge SAMPLE Hurricane Flooding Storm Surge Drought Landslides Table : Knowledge of Climate Related Events MALE HEADED FEMALE HEADED Male Female Total Male Female Total Poor 24.1% 7.7% 50.0% 13.3% NA 35.7% 35.7% Average 24.1% 23.1% 0.0% 20.0% NA 28.6% 28.6% Very Good 44.8% 61.5% 0.0% 53.3% NA 35.7% 35.7% Poor 51.7% 46.2% 50.0% 46.7% NA 57.1% 57.1% Average 31.0% 30.8% 50.0% 33.3% NA 28.6% 28.6% Very Good 10.3% 15.4% 0.0% 13.3% NA 7.1% 7.1% Poor 17.2% 7.7% 50.0% 13.3% NA 21.4% 21.4% Average 31.0% 30.8% 0.0% 26.7% NA 35.7% 35.7% Very Good 48.3% 61.5% 0.0% 53.3% NA 42.9% 42.9% Poor 34.5% 23.1% 50.0% 26.7% NA 42.9% 42.9% Average 31.0% 30.8% 50.0% 33.3% NA 28.6% 28.6% Very Good 31.0% 46.2% 0.0% 40.0% NA 21.4% 21.4% Poor 69.0% 61.5% 100.0% 66.7% NA 71.4% 71.4% Average 13.8% 15.4% 0.0% 13.3% NA 14.3% 14.3% Very Good 6.9% 15.4% 0.0% 13.3% NA 0.0% 0.0% 1: Where respondents did not indicate an option, the total percentage of respondents sum up to less than 100% Respondents showed generally low levels of awareness of the appropriate course of action to be taken in the instance such an event occurred. Table shows that: In the event of a hurricane, 51.7% of the sample was aware of what to do, without having to ask for assistance. In the instance of flooding, again, 6.9% of respondents sampled were aware of the appropriate action to take, without asking for assistance. 154

196 In the instance of a storm surge, 41.4% of respondents sampled were aware of the appropriate action to take, without asking for assistance. In the instance of a drought, 55.2% of the respondents sampled were aware of the appropriate action to take, without asking for assistance. In the event of a landslide none of the respondents were aware of what should be done. Table : Knowledge of Appropriate Response to Climate Related Events Event Knowledge SAMPLE MALE HEADED FEMALE HEADED Male Female Total Male Female Total Hurricane Yes 51.7% 46.2% 50.0% 46.7% NA 57.1% 57.1% No 27.6% 30.8% 50.0% 33.3% NA 21.4% 21.4% Flooding Yes 6.9% 15.4% 0.0% 13.3% NA 0.0% 0.0% No 24.1% 15.4% 50.0% 20.0% NA 28.6% 28.6% Storm Surge Yes 41.4% 30.8% 50.0% 33.3% NA 50.0% 50.0% No 20.7% 38.5% 0.0% 33.3% NA 7.1% 7.1% Drought Yes 55.2% 46.2% 50.0% 46.7% NA 64.3% 64.3% No 37.9% 46.2% 50.0% 46.7% NA 28.6% 28.6% Landslides Yes 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% No 24.1% 23.1% 50.0% 26.7% NA 21.4% 21.4% 1: Where respondents did not indicate an option, the total percentage of respondents sum up to less than 100% When questioned about the perceived risk of their households to climate related events, respondents most often indicated a high risk to Hurricanes (58.6%). Respondents also indicated high levels of risk for storm surge (62.1%). Only 13.8% thought there was a high risk of drought, and 6.9% thought they were at high risk of landslides. Women generally perceived higher levels of risk, especially for hurricanes and flooding compared to males. None of the male respondents perceived a high level of household risk to storm surge, landslide or drought events. 155

197 Event Hurricane Flooding Storm Surge Drought Landslides Table : Perceived Level of Risk of Climate Related Events: Household Perception of Risk SAMPLE MALE HEADED FEMALE HEADED Male Female Total Male Female Total No Risk 3.4% 7.7% 0.0% 6.7% NA 0.0% 0.0% Low Risk 31.0% 38.5% 50.0% 40.0% NA 21.4% 21.4% High Risk 58.6% 46.2% 50.0% 46.7% NA 71.4% 71.4% No Risk 31.0% 46.2% 0.0% 40.0% NA 21.4% 21.4% Low Risk 41.4% 23.1% 50.0% 26.7% NA 57.1% 57.1% High Risk 17.2% 15.4% 50.0% 20.0% NA 14.3% 14.3% No Risk 3.4% 7.7% 0.0% 6.7% NA 0.0% 0.0% Low Risk 24.1% 15.4% 50.0% 20.0% NA 28.6% 28.6% High Risk 62.1% 61.5% 50.0% 60.0% NA 64.3% 64.3% No Risk 13.8% 7.7% 0.0% 6.7% NA 21.4% 21.4% Low Risk 65.5% 61.5% 100.0% 66.7% NA 64.3% 64.3% High Risk 13.8% 23.1% 0.0% 20.0% NA 7.1% 7.1% No Risk 58.6% 61.5% 0.0% 53.3% NA 64.3% 64.3% Low Risk 27.6% 15.4% 100.0% 26.7% NA 28.6% 28.6% High Risk 6.9% 15.4% 0.0% 13.3% NA 0.0% 0.0% 1: Where respondents did not indicate an option, the total percentage of respondents sum up to less than 100% Similar patterns were observed in relation to the perceived risk by respondents of the entire community to the listed climate related events. Of interest, respondents reported higher levels of risk to climate related events for the community than they did for their own households with regards to hurricanes, flooding and storm surge (see Table and Figure 5.8.5). Additionally, women perceived higher levels of risk than men. Event Hurricane Flooding Storm Surge Drought Landslides Table : Perceived Level of Risk of Climate Related Events: Community Perception of Risk SAMPLE MALE HEADED FEMALE HEADED Male Female Total Male Female Total No Risk 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% Low Risk 10.3% 7.7% 0.0% 6.7% NA 14.3% 14.3% High Risk 89.7% 92.3% 100.0% 93.3% NA 85.7% 85.7% No Risk 20.7% 23.1% 0.0% 20.0% NA 21.4% 21.4% Low Risk 55.2% 69.2% 0.0% 60.0% NA 50.0% 50.0% High Risk 24.1% 7.7% 100.0% 20.0% NA 28.6% 28.6% No Risk 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% Low Risk 13.8% 15.4% 50.0% 20.0% NA 7.1% 7.1% High Risk 51.7% 15.4% 50.0% 20.0% NA 85.7% 85.7% No Risk 17.2% 15.4% 0.0% 13.3% NA 21.4% 21.4% Low Risk 58.6% 69.2% 100.0% 73.3% NA 42.9% 42.9% High Risk 17.2% 15.4% 0.0% 13.3% NA 21.4% 21.4% No Risk 62.1% 69.2% 0.0% 60.0% NA 64.3% 64.3% Low Risk 27.6% 23.1% 100.0% 33.3% NA 21.4% 21.4% High Risk 6.9% 7.7% 0.0% 6.7% NA 7.1% 7.1% 1: Where respondents did not indicate an option, the total percentage of respondents sum up to less than 100% 156

198 Hurricane Flooding Storm Surge Drought Landslides High Risk Low Risk No Risk High Risk Low Risk No Risk High Risk Low Risk No Risk High Risk Low Risk No Risk High Risk Low Risk No Risk 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% Risk to Household Risk to Community Figure 5.8.5: Perception of Risk for Climate Related Events Similar to perceptions of risk of climate related events, respondents consistently reported higher levels of support received within the community than in their respective households during climate related events (see Figure 5.8.6). The greatest disparity was observed in structural improvements received, and residence in shelter. 157

199 public education material structure improvements Residence in shelter Evacuation Assistance Relief Supplies 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Yes No Don't Know Yes No Don't Know Yes No Don't Know Yes No Don't Know Yes No Don't Know Disaster Management Household Disaster Management Community Figure 5.8.6: Support during Climate Related Events Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies Amongst the sample, Table shows that moderate indication was made of adaptation or mitigation strategies to protect respondents, their households and their livelihoods against impacts of extreme weather. Every strategy listed was employed by at least one respondent, and were mainly in aim of mitigating hurricane, storm surge and drought impacts. When disaggregated by gender, more response actions were indicated by men compared to women, who may have been in better positions to initiate these actions as household heads in households with relatively higher income levels compared to women. Households amongst the sample where there is an absence of adaptation and mitigation actions is of great concern, as it has implications for household and overall community vulnerability to future weather and climate change impacts. 158