Arrietta Chakos Urban Resilience Strategies May 15, 2014 Global Forum on Urban and Regional Resilience

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1 Arrietta Chakos Urban Resilience Strategies May 15, 2014 Global Forum on Urban and Regional Resilience

2 A resilient community can grow, adapt and restore itself in the aftermath of disruptive change Mitigation and preparedness Disaster Long-term Recovery Relief and Response adapted from ABAG Earthquake & Hazards Program

3 From FEMA s National Recovery Framework

4 Vulnerability of urban systems warrants close attention from the research and policy communities Multi-hazard resilience planning and energy grid disruption issues are current regional focal points Varied experience and actions on the disaster/disruption continuum impede development of a recipe for resilience

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6 Devastation in the Midwest

7 ShakeMap, California Integrated Seismic Network

8 Sonoma Napa Solano Marin 500 to 600 fires in the region are probable About 100 could occur in San Francisco San Francisco San Mateo Contra Costa Alameda Predicted Number of Ignitions Santa Clara *Data Provided by HAZUS TM, with support from PBS&J (Jawhar Bouabid), Charles Kircher & Associates, ABS Consulting (Hope Seligson), the Cities of San Jose, Berkeley and San Francisco, and OSHPD. Funding for this Scenario was provided by an Urban Area Security Initiative Grant to the City and County of San Francisco 10 or more 8 to 9 6 to 7 4 to 5 2 to 3 Less than miles 20 Santa Cruz Monterey San Benito

9 Napa Sonoma Sonoma Napa Solano Solano Marin Marin Over $120 Billion of building losses Contra Contra Costa Costa San San Francisco Francisco Direct and indirect losses will exceed $150 Billion Alameda Alameda San San Mateo Mateo Loss Density [$M per sq.mi.] Over to to 50 5 to 10 1 to to 1 Less than 0.2 TM *Data Provided by HAZUS, with support from PBS&J (Jawhar Bouabid), Charles Kircher & Associates, ABS Consulting (Hope Seligson), the Cities of San Jose, Berkeley and San Francisco, and OSHPD. Funding for this Scenario was provided by an Urban Area Security Initiative Grant to the City and County of San Francisco miles miles Santa Santa Clara Clara Santa Santa Cruz Cruz Monterey Monterey San San Benito Benito

10 America s Infrastructure Report Card

11 Regional Infrastructure Investments Infrastructure provider Pacific Gas and Electric Bay Area Rapid Transit East Bay Municipal Utilities District CalTrans Number clients served 15M throughout N CA 400,000 daily ridership 1.3M in East Bay 38.3M statewide Scope of upgrades System upgrade of underground gas, electrical components, substations, and admin building. Retrofit core system-aerial structures, stations, transbay tube (completion system 2018, tube 2023) Entire system upgrade: pipelines, fault crossings, dams, admin building, pumping and treatment plants (completed 1999?) Structurally upgraded and seismically retrofit over 2000 bridges and overpasses, new E span Bay Bridge Total cost/ source of funding $2.5B rate payers $1.3B bonds & taxpayers/ $3M from FEMA $0.189B rate payers $13.08B CA taxpayers San Francisco Public Utilities Commission 2.6 M residential, commercial, and industrial Upgrade of 100+ yr old Hetch Hetchy water system-pipelines, fault crossings treatment facilities, and reservoirs (2016 completion) Total Investment $4.6B bond measure $2.7B $24.3B

12 ABAG examines how 9 counties, 101 cities with a population of 7.8 million can apply resilience strategies in daily community life Joint Policy Committee s Resilience Initiative examines climate & sustainability action Rockefeller Foundation s 100RC Initiative California Energy Commission s Energy Assurance Program in 5 Bay Area cities

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14 Resilience Initiative- -Overview Resilience policy development process Theory Sets work in body of background, context, and theory Helps guide thinking about project as a whole 1. Resilience Initiative Background and Context 2. Executive Summary and Methodology Assessment Policy Issue papers identifying major issues and recommended regional policy solutions 3. Housing 4. Infrastructure 5. Economy and Business 6. Governance and Decision- Making Actions Summarize actions identified in issue papers Prioritize actions and develop a cohesive regional policy agenda Discuss implementation and next steps 7. Regional Resilience Action Plan

15 Bay Area Housing & Community Risk Assessment An assessment of housing and community vulnerability to earthquake and flood risks Identification of potential consequences of these risks in areas of future high growth Selection of community profile areas to refine understanding of vulnerability and support strategy development Actions that incorporate hazard mitigation, climate adaptation, and smart growth approaches

16 Regional Airport & Lifelines Study Funded by CalTrans to examine disaster readiness of the Bay Area airports and utility systems that serve them Using publicly available data, ABAG studied the vulnerability of regional infrastructure systems An interdependency assessment is in development to show the connection and choke points in the electric/ natural gas, water, transportation and fuel systems Current findings demonstrate the need for a Phase II study and formation of a regional Lifelines Council

17 Resilient Shorelines Program Identify how shoreline hazards (sea level rise, storm events, major earthquake) will affect Bay Area shoreline communities, infrastructure, ecosystems and economy Assess regional flood risk management capacity, limitations and interdependencies Identify areas and regional assets that will be exposed to shoreline flood risk hazards Develop local and regional approaches to address risk hazards, reduce and manage impacts, & build resilience.

18 Regional Assessment Maps

19 Regional Hazard Mitigation/Resilience Plan 2010 Multi-jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Regional hazards assessed with mitigation strategies for infrastructure, health, housing, economy, government services, education, environment, and land use systems Eighty-one jurisdictions and thirty special districts participated in the process Local governments now eligible for hazard mitigation assistance programs through FEMA, Community Rating System points, and a waiver of the 6.25% local match for FEMA Public Assistance funds

20 Coordinating regional research & policy development Joint Policy Committee four regional agencies coordinating SLR and climate action planning & implementation Funding from the Kresge and San Franciscso Foundations is supporting strategic planning to align climate and disaster resilience initiatives University of California, Berkeley is launching the Climate Research Initiative as the academic hub for the region

21 100 Resilient Cities: A Call to Action

22 100 Resilient Cities Initiative 100 cities will be designated in the coming two years Four cities in the Bay Area were selected in the first global cohort San Francisco, Berkeley, Oakland and Alameda the only regional cluster chosen The Bay Area 100RC communities are just beginning a three-year program to address common regional challenges: seismic safety, energy assurance, supporting community/regional collaboratives

23 Regional Energy Assurance Planning California Energy Commission pilot program worked with 50 cities to launch energy contingency and security plans Five Bay Area cities joined the effort: San Francisco, Berkeley, Oakland, Hayward and Palo Alto CaLEAP provided guidance on CIKR mapping, assessment of local and regional vulnerability, Strategies to expand local renewables and alternative energy portfolios

24 National Resilience Initiatives Presidential Policy Directives 8 & 21: Critical Infrastructure and Key Resources resilience & Comprehensive Recovery Planning guidance National Academy of Sciences long-term study on national resilience capacity and the new Resilience Roundtable National Association of Counties 2014 resilience effort ecoamerica s Climate Campaign: MomentUs

25 National Academy of Sciences 2012 Resilience Study

26 Baseline Resilience Planning Evaluate potential disruptions from natural & human generated disasters. Having a restoration plan for essential community systems power, water systems is a key element of physical resilience. Strengthen sectoral partnerships with MOUs Implement resilience action planning through local General, Hazard Mitigation & Climate Action plans Use the community planning tools at hand to mainstream and sustain resilience policy

27 The Resilience Value Proposition: 4:1 Investment Ratio The analysis of FEMA grants awarded during the (MMC) study period indicates that a dollar spent on mitigation saves society an average of $4. from the U.S. MultiHazard Mitigation Council