Transportation Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Pilot. American Planning Association Monday, April 16, 2012

Transcription

1 Transportation Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Pilot American Planning Association Monday, April 16, 2012

2 Goal The goal of Adapting to Rising Tides is to increase preparedness and resilience of Bay Area communities to sea level rise and other climate change impacts while protecting ecosystem and community assets, such as transportation. Photo: Ingrid Taylor

3 Partnerships Project Management Team Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Bay Conservation and Development Commission, and Caltrans Consultant Team AECOM, Arcadis, Geografika, 3D Visions Federal Highway Administration Local Partnership Cities of Emeryville, Alameda, Oakland, San Leandro, Hayward, & Union City, and County of Alameda BART, Capital Corridor, AC Transit U.S. Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, California Coastal Conservancy, East Bay Dischargers Authority, East Bay Municipal Utility District, East Bay Regional Park District, Hayward Area Rec. and Park, Port of Oakland, Association of Bay Area Governments, Alameda County Transportation Commission

4 Alameda County Sub-Region Study Area

5 Bay Area Refinements to Pilot Model 1. Data Asset Inventory & Asset Screening and Prioritization 2. Climate and Shoreline Information 3. Vulnerability Assessment 1. =Exposure + Sensitivity + Adaptive Capacity 4. Risk Assessment 1. = Likelihood + Consequence 5. Adaptation Strategies

6 1a. Transportation Asset Inventory Interstates/Freeways Arterial, collector and local streets Road tunnels/tubes Bay bridges Alameda bridges BART stations BART alignments Amtrak stations Passenger/freight rail alignments Ferry terminals Transportation Management Centers Bus Maintenance Facilities BART System Assets Passenger and Freight Yards and Depots Pedestrian/ Bicycle Facilities Transit associated with all road assets

7 1b. Asset Selection Physical Characteristics built at-grade, below grade, or elevated on embankments or structures; Functional Characteristics lifeline routes, evacuation routes, goods movement routes, transit routes, and bike routes; Jurisdiction agency, city or other entity with ownership and/or management responsibility for the asset; Social/Economic Functions connecting to jobs, regional importance, and support of transit-dependent populations.

8 2. Climate Science & Shoreline Assets Developed simple, yet distinct, shoreline categories based on primary function and potential to protect against inland inundation Using shoreline categories in combination with new inundation maps to understand transportation vulnerability and risk

9 Shoreline Categories: North Shoreline Categories: South

10 New Sea Level Rise Maps for Six (6) Climate Scenarios Two sea level rise projections 16 (40 cm) of sea level rise mid-century 55 (140 cm) of sea level rise end-century Three water level conditions High tide (mean high high water, MHHW) Extreme high tide (100-year stillwater level) Extreme high tide + locally generated wind waves

11 16 SLR Year Stillwater Level 55 SLR Year Stillwater Level

12 3. Vulnerability Assessment Vulnerability: is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. (IPCC definition 2007) Vulnerability = exposure + sensitivity + adaptive capacity = inundation to Sea Level Rise + condition of asset + ability to reroute if inundated

13 Exposure to SLR Measured by depth of inundation at midcentury and end of century

14 Asset Sensitivity Level of use - Average Daily Traffic (ADT) volume (cars / trucks) etc Age Seismically retrofitted Maintenance (Ongoing Operations and Maintenance [O&M]) Cost Foundation condition Liquefaction susceptibility Exposure+Sensitivity+Adaptive Capacity = Vulnerability

15 Adaptive Capacity Adaptive capacity: is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or cope with the consequences. (IPCC definition) Our definition: the ability for rerouting to maintain all or part of the original functionality Photo: Exposure+Sensitivity+Adaptive Capacity = Vulnerability

16 4. Risk Assessment Risk is the threat posed by an impact or hazard. It depends on the likelihood of an impact and the magnitude of the consequence. What is the likelihood of the asset being impacted by sea level rise? If so, what are expected consequences in terms of cost and time to replace asset, economic impact, socioeconomic impact, public safety and degree of redundancy in the system? Likelihood + Consequence = Risk

17 Likelihood and Consequence Likelihood: What is the likelihood that the asset will be impacted by SLR? Mid century SLR scenario = highly likely End of Century SLR scenario = likely Consequence: what is the expected impact or consequence to society if the asset is inundated? Criteria selected: Cost of and time to replace asset Economic impact (goods movement, commuter route) Socio-economic impact (transit dependent communities, MTC Communities of Concern) Public safety (lifeline, mass evacuation route) Degree of redundancy in the system (ability to reroute) Likelihood + Consequence = Risk

18 Asset Risk Profile Asset Characteristics Vulnerability Rating Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Risk Rating Likelihood Consequence

19 5. Adaptation Strategies Explore potential range of nearterm and long-term adaptation strategies Structural Adaptation Measures Nonstructural Adaptation Measures Asset-Specific Adaptation Measures Regional Adaptation Measures Evaluated risk profiles to identify appropriate adaptation measure for each asset highest risk assets are to be addressed first Next Steps: more detailed adaptation planning needed

20 Results Most assets in the study area will not be affected by sea level rise between now and the end of the century Some assets in the study area are vulnerable and at risk to the effects of sea level rise including such important assets as: The eastern approach to the Oakland-San Francisco Bay Bridge BART s Transbay Tube Webster and Posey Tubes Key points along the shoreline are low and will lead to large areas of inundation There are many things we can do to prepare for and protect our region from sea level rise

21 Next Steps Reproduce the study for all communities along the San Francisco Bay Use the results in MTC s Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy EIR to assess the impacts of sea level rise on proposed transportation projects and development patterns Complete a similar assessment in the region for other community assets Begin the conversation of adaptation planning with residents, cities, and counties

22 Call to Action The San Francisco Bay Area is one of the most economically and ecologically vibrant regions in the world. But it is also critically vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. As a region, it is imperative that we adapt to the impacts of climate change by fostering resilient and sustainable development. This challenge brings us an exciting opportunity to embrace a spirit of stewardship that advances both economic and environmental prosperity.

23 For more information, please contact MTC staff: Brenda Dix For a report copy of Transportation Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Pilot Project, see:

24 Conducting Climate Change Vulnerability of New Jersey s Transportation System Jeffrey Perlman, AICP, PP, LEED AP, Principal Planner North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority

25 Project Goals Assess the vulnerability of NJ s transportation system to the affects of climate change Test FHWA Conceptual Model Build capacity among State agencies to analyze climate data and assess vulnerability Assist Counties and Municipalities in assessing their own vulnerable infrastructure and climate adaptation planning

26 Project Study Area NJTPA DVRPC SJTPO

27 Transportation Asset Categories Included in Criticality Analysis Roadways (from the CMS network) Bridges Passenger Rail (Amtrak and NJ TRANSIT) Freight Rail (NS and CSX, class 3) Airports Wetlands Tunnels (Route 29 and Atlantic City Marina)

28 Criteria for Ranking Criticality

29 Revised Criteria for Ranking Criticality

30 Criteria for Ranking Criticality Mapping of TAZs

31 Ranking Criticality for New Jersey s Infrastructure

32 Critical Transportation Infrastructure

33 Determining Climate Impacts Coastal and Inland Study Areas Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts Temperature and Precipitation Inland flooding impacts

34 Determining Climate Impacts Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Three global SLR scenarios -.5, 1, 1.5 meters based regional SLR increase based on IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: Low (B1), Medium (A1B), and High (A2) Used local subsidence data provided by NJDEP Projected SLR and SS impacts for 2050 and 2100 SLOSH modeling to determine storm surge impacts from a Category 1 Hurricane

35 Utilized Digital Elevation Maps from High-resolution LiDAR from USGS

36 Highways Potentially Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise & Storm Surge medium GHG scenario for 2100

37 Highways Potentially Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise & Storm Surge medium GHG scenario for 2100

38 Determining Climate Impacts Temperature & Precipitation Three GHG emission scenarios based on IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: Low (B1), Medium (A1B), and High (A2) Projected climate impacts for 2050 and 2100 (represent 30-year averages) Collected historic weather data from eight NJ weather stations for use in climate modeling Utilized SimCLIM (CLIM Systems) to perform downscaling of GCMs

39 Climate Thresholds for Analysis Temperature Precipitation Drought Cold/Frost Flooding* Flooding of Passaic River in Paterson NJ from Hurricane Irene

40 Climate Change Projections select stations and emissions scenarios

41 Climate Extremes: Average Annual Days at or above 95 F

42 Determining Infrastructure Vulnerable to Inland Flooding Climate variables generated by SimCLIM used as inputs for inland flooding analysis Same timeframes and emissions scenarios Frost days, dry days, and rainfall Analysis estimates potential changes in peak 100-year storm (1% annual storm event) Generated floodplain polygons based on Flood Insurance Study cross sections Used updated Digital Flood Insurance Rate Maps from FEMA Accounts for future estimated changes in impervious area (population growth)

43 Rail Infrastructure Potentially Vulnerable to 1% Storm Event Medium GHG scenario for 2100

44 Rail Infrastructure Potentially Vulnerable to 1% Storm Event Medium GHG scenario for miles of roadway 138 miles of rail -25 miles of NJ TRANSIT -12 miles of Amtrak

45 Lessons Learned and Remaining Challenges Important challenges and barriers: downscaling climate models adds a great deal of uncertainty for measuring the climate impacts on specific pieces of infrastructure. absence of bridge elevation and under-clearance data led to the overstatement of the potential vulnerability of bridge spans Examining operations data and roadway closures and comparing with storm events Better data on weather-related system interruptions

46 Further Reading Visit the NJTPA Climate Initiative for more information

47 S573: Climate Change Risk Assessments of Transportation Systems Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Pilots APA 2012 National Planning Conference April 16, 2012 Becky Lupes Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration 1

48 Agenda and Presenters 1. Background on FHWA s Pilot Program: Becky Lupes, FHWA 2. San Francisco Pilot: Brenda Dix, MTC 3. New Jersey Pilot: Jeff Perlman, NJTPA 2

49 Climate Change Adaptation at USDOT Secretary LaHood s Policy Statement (June 2011): The United States Department of Transportation (DOT) shall integrate consideration of climate change impacts and adaptation into the planning, operations, policies, and programs of DOT in order to ensure that taxpayer resources are invested wisely and that transportation infrastructure, services and operations remain effective in current and future climate conditions 3

50 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Conceptual Model/Framework Develop inventory of infrastructure assets Gather climate data Assess vulnerability and risk of assets to projected climate change Analyze, prioritize adaptation options Monitor and revisit 4

51 Pilot Program Goals Help DOTs and MPOs more quickly advance existing adaptation assessment activities Assist FHWA in test driving our climate change vulnerability and risk assessment framework 5

52 Pilot Program Structure One year for the studies Collaboration opportunities for pilot participants 4 webinars for sharing progress, results, and exploring topics in detail 2 peer exchanges hosted at pilot locations SharePoint site ICF Assistance Webinar, peer exchange, and SharePoint logistics and support Topical expertise 6

53 Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Pilot Locations WASHINGTON San Francisco CALIFORNIA Central & Coastal NEW JERSEY Hampton Roads VIRGINIA Oahu HAWAII

54 Pilot: Washington State DOT Statewide geographic scope Studied WSDOT owned and managed facilities Workshops covering the state. What keeps you up at night? Putting information in one comprehensive, searchable format. Next Steps: Develop a focused strategy to define how the agency will incorporate results Further analysis Communicating Internally and Externally - focus on solutions, not just problems 8

55 Pilot: Oahu MPO Held 2 day interagency workshop to select assets for further study Performed qualitative risk assessment on each asset Limited resources Emergency management and interagency collaboration focus 9

56 Pilot: Virginia DOT Hampton Roads Developed a priority setting model For use in transportation planning Multicriteria analysis included climate change impact scenarios Model is available for use by other regions Results being used by Hampton Roads PDC as they update their transportation plan. 10

57 Next Steps Update the vulnerability assessment framework Represent the framework as a series of modules rather than a linear flow chart Articulate objectives upfront Less focus on likelihood Add resources and examples Deployment Potential for Additional Pilots 11

58 Resources FHWA Vulnerability and Risk Assessments Pilots: Gulf Coast Study: Tools NOAA Climate Services Portal: US Army Corps of Engineers Sea Level Rise Calculator: Case Studies Georgetown Climate Center Adaptation Clearinghouse: CAKE: 12

59 Thank you U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration 13