David S Lee, Director. Centre for Air Transport and the Environment Manchester Metropolitan University ICAS, 16 th September, 2008
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1 David S Lee, Director Centre for Air Transport and the Environment Manchester Metropolitan University ICAS, 16 th September, 2008
2 Overview European projects: Quantify European projects: ATTICA European projects: ECATS
3 Overview Quantify Sponsored by the European Commission and partners; To Quantify the climate impacts of the global and European transport systems for the present situation and for different scenarios of future development Aviation, road transport and shipping Coordinator: DLR (De), 35 partners from 16 countries funding 12M (total), 8M (European Commission)
4 Overview Quantify Co-ordinator: Sausen, DLR-IPA Participants: 35 from 16 countries Duration: March 2005 to February 2010 Funds: 8.0 M Total costs 12.0 M UCI UMICH
5 Overview Quantify Participants: i t 41 from 19 countries Funds: 8.4 M Total costs: 12.8 M
6 Chain of Impacts Emission Inventories temporal evolution, 3D distribution Regional Dilution and Processing effective emissions Large-scale Chemistry Effects atmospheric composition Cloud Processes cloud cover and optical properties Radiative Forcing temporal evolution, 2D distribution Climate Change new climatic state Metrics simple measures to quantify impacts Climate Impacts
7 Overview ATTICA European projects: ATTICA EC FP6 Specific Support Action Sponsored by the European Commission and partners; European Assessment of Transport Impacts on Climate Change and Ozone Depletion Scope: to provide a coherent series of authoritative assessments of the impact of transport emissions on climate change and ozone depletion Aviation; shipping; land transport; metrics; synthesis
8 Overview ATTICA Chair Robert Sausen Aviation David S. Lee, Gianni Pitari Land Transport Jos Lelieveld, Tomas Halenka Shipping IvarIsaksen, Verkonika Eyring Metrics Jan Fuglestvedt, Keith Shine Synthesis Robert Sausen
9 Overview ATTICA Authors: Participation: Aviation (13, 6c), Shipping (10, 6c), Land (13, 7c), Metrics ti (9, 5c), Synthesis (9, 5c) Status: all assessments submitted to Atmospheric Environment and under review Review is open process between CLAs and reviewers at meeting
10 Overview ECATS Aeronautical/environment EC Network of excellence NOT research facilitation Funding: EC, partners, 10M (5 years)
11 International conference Transport, Atmosphere and Climate Oxford, United Kingdom June, pa de/tac/ Proceedings have appeared!
12 Quantify summer school Quantify summer school, Athens, Greece (10 to 21 September 2007) preceding the celebration of the 20 th anniversary of the Montreal Protocol
13
14 Radiative forcing a climate metric Radiative forcing is an index of the importance of a factor as a potential climate change mechanism It is expressed in watts per square metre (W m 2 ) ΔTT = λ RF surface trop
15 Fuel C n H m (+S) Air N 2 + O 2 CO 2 + H 2 O + N 2 + O 2 + NO x + UHC + CO + C soot + SO x + + O 3 CH 4 + +
16 Aviation Scenario 2050A1i - NOx (kg per degree grid cell per year) New data from flights in Russia being prepared Quantify Activity 1 Emissions
17 NO x change (ppt v ) 240 hpa Quantify Activity 2 Plume Processes
18 Precipitation impact on HNO 3 Dry deposition LMDZ model All emissions i Aircraft Ships Road traffic Wet deposition Ship and road emissions deposited close to source: eastern US/Asia + western Europe coasts Quantify Activity 3 Large scale Chemical Effects
19 Quantify Activity 5 Aviation, Shipping and Clouds
20 RF due to a global homogeneous 1% contrail cover (all sky results) results from UiO, UREAD, UW and CNRM UiO_BBM UoR_FU UW_FU CNRM_ARPEGE LONG WAVE CNRM_ARPEGE_L UiO_BBM UoR_FU UW_FU CNRM_ARPEGE CNRM_ARPEGE_L Wm 2 SHORT WAVE Wm 2 NET Smaller uncertainty for contrails than changes in stratospheric water vapour perhaps surprising UiO_BBM UoR_FU UW_FU CNRM_ARPEGE CNRM_ARPEGE_L Wm 2 Quantify Activity 6 Radiative Forcing and Climate Change
21 First synthesis of all modes of transport Quantify Activity 7 Metrics Fuglestvedt et al. PNAS 2008
22
23 Aiti Aviation RF in 1992 (IPCC, 1999) A radiative forcing of 0.05 W m 2 in 1992 About 3.5% of the total radiative forcing from all anthropogenic activities iii IPCC, 1999
24 Updated dai Aviation i Rdi Radiative i Forcing for n et al., 2005 Sausen
25
26 Source: Lee, Fahey, Forster, Newton, Wit, Lim, Owen & Sausen, Atmospheric Environment (under revision)
27 Source: Lee, Fahey, Forster, Newton, Wit, Lim, Owen & Sausen, Atmospheric Environment (under revision)
28 Source: Lee, Fahey, Forster, Newton, Wit, Lim, Owen & Sausen, Atmospheric Environment (under evision) Excluding induced cirrus Including induced cirrus 3.5% (1.3 10%) 5.6% (2.4 15%)
29
30 Source: Lee, Fahey, Forster, Newton, Wit, Lim, Owen & Sausen, Atmospheric Environment (under revision)
31 Present day, 2020 and 2050 A1/B2 aviation RF Source: Lee, Fahey, Forster, Newton, Wit, Lim, Owen & Sausen, Atmospheric Environment (under revision)
32 Where do we want to go? SRES based futures Post Kyoto world Stabilization world (450, 550 ppm CO 2 )
33 Mixing A1 and stabilization worlds
34 Mixing B2 and stabilization worlds
35 Thank you for your attention Acknowledgements: Grateful thanks to Prof. Robert Sausen, DLR The Quantify community The ATTICA core project team EC Projects UK Department for Transport
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